Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The iron ore market is expected to experience short - term high - level narrow - range fluctuations and show a slightly stronger tendency. Although the iron ore fundamentals face challenges such as disturbances in the shipping end and high inventory pressure, the positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downward space. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 787.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193,000 lots, the holding volume was 475,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.229 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 770, and the short - term pressure is around 795. It may fluctuate narrowly between the short - term pressure and support levels in the near future [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 773 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 655 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was 104.2 (+0.3) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to strengthen while the spot prices were unchanged [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 803.8 yuan/ton, and the basis was 16.3 yuan/ton, with a slight contraction. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 29 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 18 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with declines in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period increased significantly as the previous high shipments gradually arrived. The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly on a month - on - month basis, the berthing inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Although the shipping has recovered, there are still expectations of disturbances, and the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [2]. - Demand side: The number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and there were environmental protection restrictions in some areas during the Two Sessions. The molten iron output decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, the steel mill profitability rate declined, and the复产 rhythm of molten iron was postponed. However, it is likely to recover seasonally later, and attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the release of the "Report", the policy expectation of the market for the active policy in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then it will gradually turn to the verification stage of real data [4]. - Overseas: For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which will affect the market's judgment duration of inflation and economy. The Fed will only react when the long - term inflation expectation changes. It is too early to discuss the duration of the war at present, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation portfolio construction. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, as it affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. The Fed will react when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it's advisable to manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1] - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active efforts in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event impacts. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to the development of geopolitical events and the verification of domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures Market**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower. Shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 13.92%. All energy products fell, with crude oil down 10.76%. Most chemical products declined, with ethylene glycol down 5.26%. Most black - series products dropped, with coke down 4.49%. All non - metallic building materials decreased, with glass down 4.44%. All oilseeds and oils declined, with soybean oil down 3.14%. All agricultural and sideline products fell, with logs down 2.28%. Most new - energy materials declined, with industrial silicon down 1.88%. Precious metals led the gains, with Shanghai silver up 7.11%. Most base metals rose, with Shanghai tin up 2.24% [1] - **Financial Market**: On March 10, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 300 futures up 1.35%, SSE 50 futures up 0.63%, CSI 500 futures up 1.46%, and CSI 1000 futures up 1.53%. Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with 2 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures unchanged, 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.01%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%. The US dollar index was down 0.24% [7] - **Industry Index**: On March 10, 2026, among the CITIC industry indices, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and electronics rose, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and coal declined [8][9] - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 9, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was down 6.4%, ICE Brent crude oil was down 3.13%, COMEX gold was down 0.19%, and COMEX silver was up 3.6% [10][11] - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On March 10, 2026, shipping futures such as the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined significantly, precious metals such as gold and silver rose, and most energy - chemical products such as crude oil and methanol fell [12][13][14] 3.2 Asset Views by Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures and options are affected by risk factors and are in a state of shock. The market is waiting and observing. The focus is on incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks. Treasury bond futures are affected by how fiscal policy will be implemented this year and are in a state of shock. Gold and silver are affected by rising inflation expectations suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and are in a state of shock. The focus is on US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the geopolitical situation [4] - **Shipping**: The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding, and is in a state of weak shock. The focus is on the progress of geopolitical events, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, and the opening of the spot market [4] - **Black Building Materials**: The prices of black - building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke are affected by factors such as cost support, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of shock [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The prices of non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of wide - range shock [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Energy - chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of high - volatility shock [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock are affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of shock [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump publicly announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time in the Fed's 111-year history that a sitting president has fired a board member [1][3] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Lisa Cook, an economist and the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, stated that Trump does not have the authority to dismiss her and intends to continue her duties [3] - Cook's lawyer announced plans to sue Trump over the dismissal [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite a relatively calm response from the U.S. stock market, the bond market showed signs of investor concern, with the yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds reaching its highest level in three years [3] - On August 26, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds fell by 0.04%, while the yield on 30-year bonds rose by 0.06%, creating a spread of 1.25 percentage points [3] Group 3: Historical Context and Implications - Historical instances of presidential pressure on the Fed, such as during the Nixon administration, led to poor monetary policy decisions and prolonged inflation [4] - Trump's actions have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with analysts suggesting that his potential control could destabilize U.S. monetary policy and have global repercussions [6] - Experts warn that if Trump wins the legal battle for control over the Fed, it could signify the end of the Fed's independence, which may lead to regret for the country [6]