Core Viewpoint - Recent significant fluctuations in the international commodity market have led to a synchronized increase in oil and precious metal prices, driven by geopolitical risks, expectations of a weaker dollar, and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [1][3][4] Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, has raised concerns about the stability of global energy supply chains, prompting investors to reassess the uncertainty surrounding oil supply and triggering a rebound in oil prices [3] - The changing global security environment has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold and silver becoming preferred choices for investors [3] Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index, exacerbated by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following investigations into its chairman, has provided support for dollar-denominated oil and precious metal prices [3] - Historical data indicates a significant negative correlation between the dollar and commodities, with a weaker dollar reducing holding costs and attracting global capital to increase positions in commodities [3] Supply-Demand Dynamics - Structural adjustments in supply-demand dynamics are reinforcing the upward trend in prices, with OPEC+ deciding to maintain production cuts until early 2026, alleviating concerns about oversupply in the oil market [4] - In the precious metals market, continued purchases by global central banks, with a reported net purchase of 45 tons in November 2025, have bolstered demand, contributing to a solid foundation for rising gold and silver prices [4] Differentiated Price Drivers - The logic behind price increases varies between commodities, with oil prices primarily driven by short-term geopolitical risks, while gold and silver are more influenced by concerns over monetary credibility and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process [4] - Fund flows indicate this differentiation, with the oil market seeing short-term speculative inflows, while the precious metals market is characterized by a combined increase in holdings from both institutions and retail investors, evidenced by significant growth in gold ETF and physical gold bar sales [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has declined for the third consecutive day, indicating a weakening dollar trend as trading activity remains relatively light ahead of Christmas [1][9]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.1%, reaching its lowest level since October 3 [2][10]. - Traders have reinforced expectations of a weaker dollar for three consecutive days, with a key options indicator at its most bearish level in over three months [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 10,000 to 214,000 for the week ending December 20, highlighting seasonal fluctuations in the data [4][12]. - Bloomberg's survey of economists had a median expectation of 224,000 initial claims [4][12]. Group 3: Currency Pairs - The USD/JPY pair fell by 0.2% to 155.88, pressured after Japan's Finance Minister indicated potential government intervention if the yen deviates from fundamentals [4][12]. - The USD/CAD pair decreased by 0.1% to 1.3675, marking its third consecutive day of decline and entering oversold territory [5][14]. - The USD/CHF pair rose slightly by less than 0.1% to 0.7881 [7][15]. - The EUR/USD pair dropped by 0.1% to 1.1780, making the euro the worst-performing G10 currency against the dollar [8][16].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has been in a state of supply shortage for five consecutive years, with increasing industrial demand supporting price growth. Factors such as safe-haven appeal, expectations of a weaker dollar, and declining yields are also contributing to this trend [1] Group 1 - Silver prices are on a record rise, with a target of $75 per ounce [1] - The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, leading to a partial recovery of the dollar [1] - A stronger dollar reduces the attractiveness of dollar-denominated metals for overseas buyers [1] Group 2 - Profit-taking at the end of the year may trigger a price correction in the silver market [1] - Industrial demand for silver continues to grow, reinforcing the supply-demand imbalance [1]

Group 1: Market Sentiment - Increased uncertainty in tariff policies is driving risk-averse sentiment, supporting gold prices [2] - Rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are weakening the dollar, which is favorable for gold [2] - A weak U.S. labor market and potential trade risks are reinforcing support for gold [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with resistance at 3390-3400 and support at 3365-3355, close to the historical high of 3500 [2] - Bullish momentum is resilient but has not yet fully materialized; a breakthrough above 3400 could strengthen bullish sentiment, while failure to do so poses a risk of pullback [2] Group 3: Trading Recommendations - The strategy suggests a short-term focus on short positions, while remaining cautious of potential breakouts; waiting for support signals to enter long positions [4] - A light short position is recommended if resistance is encountered at 3390-3400, with a stop-loss above 3405 and a target of 3375-3370 [4] - If 3400 is effectively breached, short positions should be avoided, with attention on levels 3410-3420, and caution advised for chasing long positions [4] - A light long position is suggested if stability is observed at 3370-3365, with a stop-loss below 3360 and a target of 3380-3385 [4]