欧元/美元下跌0.1%至1.1780；欧元是G10货币中兑美元表现最差的货币。 圣诞节前夕交投相对清淡，彭博美元指数连续第三天下跌。G10货币中，日元兑美元涨幅居前。 彭博美元即期指数下跌0.1%，至10月3日以来最低水平。 交易员连续第三天强化对美元走弱的预期，一项关键期权指标处于逾三个月来最看空水平。 美国上周首次申请失业救济人数下降，凸显每年此时数据存在的季节性波动。 美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，截至12月20日当周，初请失业金人数减少1万人至21.4万人；彭博对 经济学家的调查显示，预期中值为22.4万。 美元/日元下跌0.2%至155.88。在日本财务大臣片山皋月表示当日元走势偏离基本面时政府应放手干预 后，该货币对明显承压。 美元/加元下跌0.1%至1.3675。 该货币对连续第三个交易日下跌，进入超卖区间。 美元/瑞郎上涨不到0.1%至0.7881。 美元/加元下跌0.1%至1.3675。 该货币对连续第三个交易日下跌，进入超卖区间。 美元/瑞郎上涨不到0.1%至0.7881。 欧元/美元下跌0.1%至1.1780；欧元是G10货币中兑美元表现最差的货币。 责任编辑：李桐 圣诞节前夕交投相对清 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上周美国失业救济申请人数下降，凸显了每年这个时候数据的季节性波动。根据美 国劳工部周三公布的数据，截至12月20日当周，首次申请失业救济人数减少1万人，至21.4万人，预期 为22.4万人。 近几周来，新增失业救济申请人数波动较大，这在节假日期间很常见。月初，申请人数从感恩节期间三 年来的低点反弹，目前又开始回落。 上周，用于平滑波动性的四周新申请人数移动平均值也出现下降。 周三公布的数据与劳动力市场裁员相对较低的趋势相符，尽管经济不确定性加剧，但这一趋势在今年一 直保持不变。虽然包括百事公司和惠普公司在内的多家大型雇主近期宣布了裁员计划，但这些计划尚未 转化为实际裁员人数的显著增加。 在截至12月13日的当周，续领失业金人数增加3.8万人，经季调后达到192.3万人。这一上升与世界大型 企业联合会周二发布的调查结果一致，该调查显示消费者本月对劳动力市场的看法恶化至2021年初以来 的水平。11月失业率升至4.6%的四年高位，不过部分原因是与政府停摆相关的技术性因素导致。 近期数据因假日季前季节性调整面临挑战而出现波动。劳动力市场仍处于经济学家和政策制定者所称 的"不招聘、不解雇"模式。尽 ...

Core Insights - The bank wealth management market experienced significant fluctuations in Q3, with total outstanding scale decreasing to 30.82 trillion yuan, down 151.47 billion yuan from the end of Q2, and average annualized returns dropping to 2.47% [1][2] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect led to a shift in investor preferences, with funds moving towards bank on-balance sheet assets rather than a large-scale transition to equity markets [2][3] - Despite the overall decline in wealth management returns, "fixed income plus" products and equity-related products showed strong performance, with average annualized returns of 5.03% and 13.72% respectively [7] Market Trends - The overall wealth management scale showed a "rise and fall" trend in Q3, with a notable drop in September after a rise in July and August, resulting in a total market decrease of over 150 billion yuan [2][3] - The bond market faced volatility, with fixed income products underperforming compared to equity assets, prompting some investors to redeem their wealth management products [2][3] - The average annualized return for closed-end fixed income products was 2.73%, while open-end fixed income products yielded only 2.54%, both underperforming their benchmarks [3][6] Product Performance - Cash management products and fixed income products saw average annualized returns decline to 1.45% and 2.48% respectively, influenced by the downward shift in bond yields [6] - In contrast, mixed and equity-related wealth management products experienced significant increases in returns, with mixed products rising by 1.89 percentage points and equity products by 9.97 percentage points compared to June [7] - The issuance of equity-related products surged, with 12 new equity products launched in 2023 compared to only 2 in the previous year, indicating a growing trend towards equity allocation [7] Future Outlook - The wealth management market is expected to continue its trend of steady expansion in scale, with October projected to see an increase of over 1 trillion yuan, driven by the optimization of product structures by wealth management subsidiaries [8] - The low interest rate environment is anticipated to keep "fixed income plus" products as a key growth driver in the wealth management sector, with expectations for the total wealth management scale to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year [8]

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI was slightly lower than forecasted at 50 instead of 51, but still indicated positive development [1] - Despite the absence of official US labor market data, private sector indicators show a consolidation of hiring and new payrolls, maintaining a mildly positive sentiment among investors [2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 closed the week in green, indicating sustained market momentum [2] - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high at approximately $125,000, while crude oil prices fell to nearly $60 [2] Crude Oil Market - OPEC+ decided to modestly increase production, which is viewed as a bearish factor for crude oil prices [3] - Crude oil futures are trending downward, with potential support around the $59-60 area, where a breakout could trigger short selling [7] - The bearish sentiment in crude oil persists despite geopolitical concerns, as indicated by market reactions to US President Trump's warnings to Hamas [4] S&P 500 Analysis - The S&P 500 index is positioned above the upper line of the Bollinger Bands, showing signs of weakening momentum [8] - The tech sector faced pressure, which may indicate a normal sector rotation or a precursor to a broader market correction [8] Upcoming Events - Traders are anticipating the end of the government shutdown and developments from Israeli-Hamas talks [5] - Key economic publications to watch include the FOMC minutes and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index [5]

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound in the U.S. stock market may soon cool down, raising concerns among bulls as the Bloomberg Intelligence Market Pulse Index indicates that investor sentiment may be overheated [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The Bloomberg Intelligence Market Pulse Index reached the "euphoria" zone last month, suggesting that investor sentiment is at a high level, which historically leads to weaker returns in the following three months [1][4]. - The S&P 500 index rebounded nearly 30% from its April low, despite signs of weakness in the U.S. economy and labor market [1]. - The index recorded a value of 0.6 in July, remaining in the "euphoria" zone for the second consecutive month, which historically correlates with lower average returns for the Russell 3000 index in the following three months [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Predictions - Historical data shows that when the Market Pulse Index enters the "euphoria" zone, the average return for the Russell 3000 index over the next three months is only 2.9%, while it can reach 9% when in the "panic" zone [4]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Evercore predict potential market corrections of 10% and 15%, respectively, indicating a consensus on the likelihood of a downturn [4][5]. - Seasonal factors are also a concern, as August and September are historically the worst-performing months for the S&P 500 index [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the Market Pulse Index is partly attributed to a resurgence in meme stocks, with retail investors flocking to speculative stocks like Opendoor Technologies and Kohl's [5]. - The Market Pulse Index is based on six indicators, including price breadth and high-yield bond spreads, with a reading of 0.7 in July indicating extreme risk appetite [6]. - Continuous readings above 0.6 typically suggest mean reversion in the stock market, with small-cap stocks expected to underperform large-cap stocks in the following months [7].