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美元霸权裂缝渐开,美国收割世界经济术穷矣!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 19:15
美国中西部广袤的农田上,联合收割机轰鸣作响,却无法掩盖豆农罗恩·金德雷德的焦虑——他今年60%的大豆还找不到买家,而过去采购超过一半美国大 豆的中国客户,已从订单表上彻底消失。 01 单边关税:伤敌八百,自损一千 特朗普政府重返白宫后,美国的国际角色发生了深刻转变,迅速蜕变成一个榨取型超级大国。 不再致力于维护全球体系稳定,美国反而通过滥用政治、经济、外交和军事工具,从对手与盟友身上攫取资源。 为合理化其掠夺政策,特朗普政府将根深蒂固的怨恨情绪武器化,声称美国数十年来遭受他国剥削,必须立即纠正这些所谓的"不公"。 然而,这些冤屈大多被夸大或根本不存在,本质上只是为其行为正名的说辞。 贸易领域成为美国实施掠夺的重灾区。特朗普自首次竞选总统以来的策略,始终是强制美国的经济伙伴屈服。 对他而言,贸易谈判是零和博弈,互利共赢的理念似乎全然陌生。 这种单边主义政策不仅引发全球反弹,更使美国自身经济承受沉重压力。2025年第一季度,美国GDP环比下滑0.3%,这是三年来的首次萎缩。 其中净出口减少了4.83个百分点,这一切都源于美国的"对等关税"政策。 耶鲁大学的研究指出,如果美国全面落实关税政策,物价将上涨2.3%,每 ...
中方呼吁世贸组织成员集体应对贸易动荡,共同维护多边主义
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 23:44
欧盟、巴西、澳大利亚、瑞士、巴基斯坦等多方发言呼吁维护世贸组织基本原则并推动世贸组织改革。 欧盟对"基于规则"的多边贸易体制遭到"基于实力"的贸易关系侵蚀表达严重关注。澳大利亚、新西兰、 韩国等呼吁世贸组织秘书处对单边关税和有关双边协定加强监督,鼓励达成双边协定的成员主动向世贸 组织通报。尼日利亚、孟加拉国强调单边关税以及贸易环境的不确定性对脆弱发展中成员带来冲击,呼 吁世贸组织为其提供必要协助。委内瑞拉、尼加拉瓜、古巴等成员强烈谴责美方的单边关税和胁迫做 法。 李詠箑表示,为应对不断加剧的贸易动荡局势,中方提出三点建议:一是加强透明度和监督;二是集体 重申对以规则为基础的多边贸易体制的坚守和承诺;三是采取切实行动,推动世贸组织取得务实成果。 世界贸易组织6日至7日在瑞士日内瓦召开总理事会2025年度第四次会议。中方主动设置议题,呼吁世贸 组织成员集体应对当前日益加剧的贸易动荡局势,共同维护多边贸易体制的核心价值和原则。 中国常驻世贸组织代表李詠箑表示,当前全球经贸局势动荡仍然不断加剧,这是中方今年第四次在总理 事会会议上设置"贸易动荡加剧和世贸组织应对"议程。美国贸易政策扰乱供应链和全球市场,已经成为 全球 ...
中国商务部正式通告全球,中美将在西班牙会谈:关税、管制、TikTok
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 02:16
一则简短通告,却是一次正面碰撞的开场锣。何立峰率团赴西班牙与美方会谈,时间卡在9月14日至17 日,地点选在马德里。谈什么?就三件事:单边关税、出口管制、TikTok。看点不在场面,在底线。 不在中美本土,也非传统会场。中立、低调、可腾挪——利于在舆论噪音之外摸底线、探边界。更现实 的是,美财长此行还串联英国,议题跨大西洋也跨太平洋,方便把"经济安全、反洗钱合作"等话术装进 一个大框里 ...
特朗普宣布对印度征收25%关税 外加一项“惩罚”!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-30 14:42
美国总统特朗普周三表示,印度将从8月1日起支付25%的关税,此外还将因他认为的不公平贸易政策以 及印度购买俄罗斯军事装备和能源而受到"惩罚"。 25%的关税税率略低于他在"解放日"对印度征收的税率,当时他宣布对这个关键贸易伙伴征收26%的关 税。 但这仍处于特朗普似乎在为印度考虑的区间的较高端,特朗普周二曾表示,他正在考虑一个介于20%到 25%之间的税率。 特朗普在社交媒体上写道,"请记住,虽然印度是我们的朋友,但多年来,我们与他们的生意相对较 少,因为他们的关税实在太高了,是世界上最高的之一,而且他们拥有所有国家中最繁重且令人厌恶的 非货币贸易壁垒。" 他继续说道,"此外,他们一直从俄罗斯购买绝大多数的军事装备,还是俄罗斯最大的能源买家,而眼 下每个人都希望俄罗斯停止在乌克兰的杀戮——所有这些都不是好事!因此,印度将从8月1日起支付 25%的关税,外加因上述行为而受到的惩罚。" 白宫没有解释特朗普说的所谓惩罚可能是什么。 在另一篇帖子中,特朗普表示:"我们与印度存在巨大的贸易逆差!!!" 特朗普曾多次表示,他全面的关税制度的目标是大幅削减美国与其他国家的贸易逆差。 然而,经济学家们对这一动机提出了质疑。他 ...
宏观金融数据日报-20250707
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 07:39
Group 1: Interest Rate and Fundamentals - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.10bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -4.52bp change, GC001 at 1.43 with a 28.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 0.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a -0.90bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.34 with a -1.20bp change, 5 - year at 1.49 with a -0.40bp change, 10 - year at 1.64 with a 0.20bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a 5.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 13753 billion yuan [4] - This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with 3315 billion, 1310 billion, 985 billion, 572 billion, and 340 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - Last week, the inter - bank market liquidity further eased, and the weighted average interest rate of overnight pledged repurchase of deposit - type institutions dropped 4.47bp to 1.315%, hitting a new low since December 2024 [5] Group 2: Stock Index and Market Conditions - The CSI 300 closed at 3982 with a 0.36% change, the SSE 50 at 2740 with a 0.58% change, the CSI 500 at 5911 with a -0.19% change, and the CSI 1000 at 6312 with a -0.48% change [6] - The trading volume of IF was 126007 with a 71.2% change, IH was 66223 with a 93.8% change, IC was 99284 with a 52.8% change, and IM was 250280 with a 53.6% change [6] - The positions of IF were 266026 with an 11.3% change, IH were 97738 with a 21.2% change, IC were 236528 with a 7.3% change, and IM were 351204 with a 9.1% change [6] - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.54% to 3982.2, the SSE 50 rose 1.21% to 2740.4, the CSI 500 rose 0.81% to 5911.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.56% to 6312.2 [6] - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 14056 billion, 13865 billion, 13122 billion, 12450 billion, and 13540 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 414.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - As of July 3, the margin trading purchase amount of A - shares accounted for 9.6% of the total market trading volume, at the 75.4% quantile level in the past decade [6] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, last week, steel (5.1%), building materials (4%), banks (3.8%), pharmaceutical biology (3.6%), and comprehensive (2.8%) led the gains, while computer (-1.3%), non - bank finance (-0.7%), transportation (-0.2%), commercial retail (-0.2%), and communication (-0.1%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - Domestically, after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the "involution - style" competition has attracted high attention. The market expects more special policies to curb excessive competition, and the supply - side of photovoltaic, steel, and cement may improve [7] - Overseas, US President Trump said on July 3 that he would start sending letters to trading partners on the 4th to set unilateral tariff rates, and countries would start paying new tariffs from August 1st, with tariff rates ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70% [7] - In the short term, although market liquidity is okay, there are few positive factors at home and abroad. It is difficult for the stock index to break through upwards and may show a volatile pattern [7] - In the long - term, looking at the second half of the year, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy is undetermined, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut time, overseas liquidity and geopolitical changes will bring trading opportunities [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates are 14.06% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - month contract, 5.65% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.59% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH's premium/discount rates are 19.36% for the current - month contract, 7.74% for the next - month contract, 4.13% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC's premium/discount rates are 19.16% for the current - month contract, 13.96% for the next - month contract, 12.02% for the current - quarter contract, and 10.01% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM's premium/discount rates are 24.19% for the current - month contract, 18.19% for the next - month contract, 15.42% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.24% for the next - quarter contract [8]
特朗普:8月1日起实施新关税 最高税率或达70%
财联社· 2025-07-05 07:49
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding the implementation of new unilateral tariffs on trade partners, which are expected to take effect from August 1, with rates potentially ranging from 10% to 70% [1][2]. Group 1 - The U.S. government will begin sending letters to trade partners to set new unilateral tariff rates starting July 4, with an expectation that 10 to 12 letters will be sent on the same day [1]. - Trump indicated that the new tariffs could vary significantly, with rates potentially reaching as high as 60% to 70% [1]. - The letters are expected to be delivered by July 9, which is set as the deadline for tariff negotiations [1]. Group 2 - In April, Trump imposed "reciprocal" tariffs of up to 50% on most trade partners, which previously led to significant market reactions, including a bear market in U.S. stocks [2]. - If the new tariffs exceed the previous 50% rate, it could heighten inflation risks for the U.S. economy [2]. - A 70% tariff would surpass the previous levels and could lead to further market instability [2].
整理:特朗普过去24小时都忙了什么?(2025-07-04)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-04 09:52
Group 1 - The upcoming phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky will address the sudden halt of key weapon shipments to Ukraine [1] - Trump expressed disappointment regarding his conversation with Russian President Putin, indicating he does not believe Putin intends to cease actions [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, leading Trump to share positive economic performance videos on social media [3] - Trump announced plans to send letters to trade partners to set unilateral tariff rates, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% starting August 1 [4] - Trump is planning to host a UFC event at the White House next year to celebrate the 250th anniversary of American independence [5] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House despite two Republican defections, and Trump is set to sign it [6] - An executive order was signed by Trump to study increasing entrance fees for foreign tourists to U.S. national parks, ensuring priority for American residents [7] Group 2 - Trump indicated a willingness to allow immigrant workers to remain in the U.S. for agricultural work, contingent on employer sponsorship, amid tightening immigration policies and labor shortages in agriculture [8] - Trump stated that a decision on whether Hamas will accept a ceasefire agreement is expected within the next 24 hours [9]
特朗普:周五将发出关税信函,浮动范围10%-70%
news flash· 2025-07-04 05:03
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump announced plans to send letters to trade partners setting unilateral tariff rates, with a range from 10% to 70%, starting August 1 [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - Trump will send approximately "10 to 12 letters" to various countries on Friday, with additional letters to follow in the coming days [1] - The final deadline for countries to receive these letters is set for July 9 [1] - The announced tariff range is significantly higher than previously outlined tariffs, which had a baseline of 10% and a maximum of 50% [1] Group 2: Specifics of Tariff Implementation - The exact countries subject to these tariffs have not been specified, nor has it been clarified if certain goods will have higher rates than others [1] - The new tariffs are part of Trump's strategy to negotiate trade agreements with various nations [1]
特朗普拟推单边关税新政 伦敦银短期承压36.50美元
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-12 02:30
Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $36.38, with an opening price of $36.24 and a current price of $36.37, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is $36.38, while the lowest was $36.21, indicating a bullish short-term trend for London silver [1] Group 2 - President Trump plans to send letters to trade partners within the next one to two weeks to determine unilateral tariff rates, as the July 9 deadline for tariff suspension approaches [3] - Trump has indicated that he believes the timing is right to send these letters, although there is uncertainty about whether he will follow through, as past deadlines have often been postponed [3] - He expressed willingness to consider extending the deadline for countries to reach agreements with the U.S., but emphasized that he does not see it as necessary [3] Group 3 - Despite recent declines, silver/USD is preparing to test higher prices, with momentum indicators suggesting potential selling when the RSI reaches overbought levels [4] - A drop below $36.50 could lead to a test of $36.00, which, if breached, would expose $35.40, a support level established since October 2012 [4] - If silver/USD recovers above $36.50, the next target would be $37.00, with potential further gains reaching $37.49, the 13-year high set on February 29 [4]
美国总统特朗普:将在两周内确定单边关税税率。
news flash· 2025-06-11 22:56
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump announced that a unilateral tariff rate will be determined within two weeks [1] Group 1 - The announcement indicates a potential shift in trade policy that could impact various industries reliant on imports [1] - The decision to impose unilateral tariffs may lead to increased costs for companies that depend on foreign goods [1] - The timeline of two weeks suggests urgency in addressing trade imbalances and could signal upcoming changes in market dynamics [1]