英国在6月份的表现更为突出，大幅增持487亿美元美国国债，使其持仓规模升至8581亿美元。英国自今 年3月起已超越中国成为美国国债的第二大海外持有国，此次大幅增持进一步巩固了其地位。英国的增 持动作可能与其寻求稳定收益资产以及对冲汇率风险的需求有关。 市场环境与资金流向分析 三大债权国持仓变动情况 降息预期的升温为美债市场提供了支撑。近期美债收益率整体呈现下行趋势，这为外国投资者增持美债 创造了有利条件。美国经济数据的波动以及美联储政策预期的变化，都对外国投资者的配置决策产生重 要影响。美国联邦政府债务规模已突破37万亿美元大关，创下历史新高，这一现象引发了对美国财政可 持续性的关注。 日本作为美国国债最大的海外持有国，6月份增持126亿美元，使其持仓规模达到1.1476万亿美元。这延 续了日本今年以来持续增持美债的趋势，体现出其对美国国债市场的持续信心。日本的增持行为与其国 内货币政策环境以及对美元资产的长期配置需求密切相关。 来源：金融界 中国6月份增持1亿美元美国国债，持仓规模为7564亿美元。虽然增持幅度相对较小，但这是中国自今年 3月以来的首次增持，结束了连续三个月的减持态势。自2022年4月以来， ...

降息预期之下，近期美债收益率整体下行。华创证券固收团队发布研报中称，7月，美国债市回归基本 面定价，同时主要贸易国关税豁免期继续延后，欧盟、日本等与美国达成关税协议，美债收益率先上后 下。 该团队表示，7月初至中旬，美国劳动力市场表现强劲，叠加关税摩擦再起，10年期美债收益率震荡上 行至4.5%。中下旬开始，美联储官员公开表示支持降息，叠加特朗普施压，收益率转为下行。临近月 末，美国与欧盟、日本等经济体达成协议，叠加就业市场数据大幅走弱，10年期美债收益率围绕4.3% —4.45%区间震荡。 中国银河证券固收首席分析师刘雅坤在研报中称，在美联储降息预期较7月升温及市场对美国经济走弱 预期的重新定价下，预计8月美债中枢下移。在利多因素影响下，10年期美债收益率可能降至美联储官 员鸽派发言导致市场降息预期升高的水平。 平静的市场行情之下，美国财政可持续性的隐忧"静水深流"。美国联邦政府当前正继续以创纪录的速度 举债，债务规模再创新高。美国财政部最新公布的数据显示，美国联邦政府债务规模总额首次超过了37 万亿美元。 当地时间8月15日，美国财政部公布国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，今年6月，作为美国前三大海 外"债 ...

刘元春：什么在左右美国关税谈判，中国如何取得战略先机？ 经济发展 ★★★★★ ），じた六以木止山Jヒ示。 ハハ四 绕汇率、公共安全、财政政策、产业 政策以及政府改革等方面的不确定 性，可能会更具冲击力。 要深入理解这一问题，需要从以 下三个方面展开思考：一是理清美国 将关税作为筹码进行相关谈判的基本 模式;二是深入把握"MAGA主义"在 未来几年的执政逻辑、政策出台顺序 及其背后的基本原则;三是要理解与 美国展开博弈的不同层级主体的反应 机制,以及全球经济体系正在发生的 结构性、革命性变化的本质。若无法 从上述三个维度形成清晰认识,将难 以对未来发展进行有效判断,目前市 场面临的不确定性可能在特朗普政策 节奏的推动下进一步加剧。 三大关键因素直接决定了美国关税谈 ポ 过去五个月,特朗普政府多次将 关税作为筹码进行要挟和打压,对全 球市场产生了一系列冲击，超出了传 统认知范畴,但其中仍有三个可以把 握的关键因素。 第一，关税冲击对全球形势的影 响具有里程碑意义,其中最为重要的 是,全球金融市场的震荡远超预期。 自4月2日(即"解放日") 以来，尽管从 绝对数值上看,全球金融市场已开始 有所填补前期的跌幅，但每一 ...

Group 1 - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy is unsustainable, with warnings from former Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner highlighting deeper issues such as federal fiscal unsustainability and political dysfunction in Washington [1][3] - Paulson emphasized that if political gridlock continues and fiscal deficits worsen, market patience will eventually run out, indicating a potential systemic shock to the bond market [3] - Geithner noted that while current bond yields are reasonable, market confidence is conditional on the independence of the Federal Reserve, the rule of law, and fiscal discipline [3][4] Group 2 - The passive safety of U.S. Treasuries relies heavily on the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and the liquidity of U.S. debt, but this advantage is not guaranteed [3] - The trend of de-dollarization and diversification of reserve assets by major economies could lead to a more rapid and direct impact on U.S. fiscal conditions, potentially undermining the market position of U.S. Treasuries [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is under scrutiny, as political and inflationary pressures may force the central bank to prioritize short-term fiscal needs, which could lead to a reassessment of U.S. debt's credit premium [4][5] Group 3 - Long-term market confidence in U.S. Treasuries will depend on the governance system's ability to restore rationality and self-correct under pressure, rather than on isolated events like interest rate hikes or budget negotiations [5] - If the U.S. government fails to re-establish a balance between fiscal and policy measures at the institutional level, trust in the U.S. financial system may undergo significant reevaluation [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has experienced a significant decline of 10.79% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance in nearly 52 years, with a low of 96.37 reached on July 1, 2023 [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar index, with market expectations for further rate cuts in September 2023 [2] - The US economy is showing signs of weakness due to high interest rates and trade policy uncertainties, which may narrow the economic gap between the US and non-US countries, contributing to a weaker dollar index [2][3] Group 2 - The dollar's creditworthiness is under scrutiny due to persistent fiscal deficits and debt expansion, leading to a downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 by Moody's, reflecting a decline in the credit quality of dollar assets [4] - The rise of "de-dollarization" rhetoric is weakening the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, which may exert long-term downward pressure on the dollar index [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The "Great Beauty Act" was passed, and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on July 9 increased market uncertainty. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut weakened [3]. - On July 3, the "Great Beauty Act" was passed in the House, and Trump signed it into law. It provides greater fiscal flexibility but raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and debt risks. The approaching tariff suspension deadline on July 9 intensifies concerns about global trade prospects [3]. - The US June non - farm data was 147,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the report, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September in the interest rate futures market dropped from 98% to about 80% [3]. - Although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut decreased, the tax - cut bill and the approaching tariff suspension deadline add new uncertainties, and short - term precious metal price fluctuations may increase [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE Gold closed at 777.06 yuan/gram, up 8.42 yuan (1.10%), with a total trading volume of 175,040 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots [4]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, up 7.42 yuan (0.97%), with a total trading volume of 39,244 lots and a total open interest of 220,656 lots [4]. - COMEX Gold closed at 3336.00 dollars/ounce, up 49.90 dollars (1.52%) [4]. - SHFE Silver closed at 8919 yuan/kilogram, up 127 yuan (1.44%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots [4]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8885 yuan/kilogram, up 157 yuan (1.80%), with a total trading volume of 415,618 lots and a total open interest of 3,258,756 lots [4]. - COMEX Silver closed at 37.04 dollars/ounce, up 0.88 dollars (2.42%) [4]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The "Great Beauty Act" became law, and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on July 9 increases uncertainties. The better - than - expected non - farm data weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [3][6]. - The EU is trying to reach a "principled" trade agreement with the US before the deadline, and Japan plans to send its chief trade negotiator to the US again this weekend [7]. - This week, focus on the end of the US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period on July 9, the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit, the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes, and Fed officials' speeches [7]. 3. Important Data Information - US June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the probability of a September Fed rate cut dropped to about 80% [9]. - US June ADP employment decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 [9]. - US May job openings increased from 7.4 million to 7.769 million, exceeding expectations, and lay - offs decreased [9]. - US June ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49, still in the contraction range, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and inflation showing signs of acceleration [9]. - US June ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.8, slightly higher than expected, with business activities and orders rebounding but the employment index contracting [10]. - US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month, the largest increase since 2014 [10]. - US May trade deficit increased by 18.7% month - on - month to 71.5 billion dollars, with imports down 0.1% and exports down 4% [10]. - Eurozone June CPI rose 2% year - on - year, reaching the ECB's target, and ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle is in the final stage [10]. - Eurozone June manufacturing PMI reached 49.5, the highest since August 2022, with new orders stabilizing and export orders stopping falling [10]. 4. Related Data Charts - Gold ETF total holdings were 947.66 tons on July 4, 2025, down 7.16 tons from last week [11]. - Ishares Silver ETF holdings were 14,868.74 tons on July 4, 2025, up 2.55 tons from last week [11]. - The report also includes various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial positions, and correlations of precious metals and related economic indicators [14][16][18][21][25][26][30][32][35][37][42]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has made significant progress with its passage in the procedural vote in the House of Representatives, indicating a shift in support among previously opposing Republican members towards President Trump's agenda [1][4]. Legislative Progress - A group of Republican opponents in the House has changed their stance to support Trump, allowing his agenda to move forward after initially threatening to block the bill [4]. - The House cleared a key procedural hurdle and voted to pass the bill, with Republican leaders working to win over dissenting votes by delaying the vote on the bill's debate rules [6]. - Republican leaders are optimistic about securing enough votes for the bill's passage in the full voting stage, although the outcome remains uncertain [7]. Financial Implications - The bill is expected to implement most of Trump's policy agenda, which could have profound effects on the U.S. capital markets and global investors if successfully enacted [13]. - Estimates suggest that the Senate version of the bill could increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $3.9 trillion over the next decade, compared to $3 trillion for the House version, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [14]. - If the "Big and Beautiful" bill is passed, it may support U.S. economic growth but could also heighten doubts about fiscal sustainability and balance of payments, impacting the risk premium and valuation of U.S. debt in the long term [14]. Market Reactions - Following the news of the bill's passage in the procedural vote, the U.S. dollar index experienced a significant drop, indicating market anticipation of the bill's final approval [11].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing a significant decline, with weekly losses potentially reaching the highest level since April 7, driven by a weakening US dollar and increasing concerns over US fiscal sustainability [1] - The passage of a large tax and spending bill by the House of Representatives is expected to add trillions of dollars to federal debt, heightening market fears regarding fiscal risks [1] - Current gold prices are around $3330.00, supported by the key upward trend line and the middle Bollinger Band at $3301.24, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are currently just below the resistance level of $33.70, with a confirmed breakout potentially leading to targets of $34.59 and $34.87 [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, but maintaining prices above the 50-day moving average of $32.80 is crucial for a bullish outlook [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips while monitoring resistance at $33.60-$33.80 and support at $33.00-$32.80 [5]

Market Overview - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.51% due to concerns over liquidity and fiscal sustainability, marking an increase of 3.4 basis points for the week[1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.61% and 2.47% respectively, reflecting market turmoil[1] - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 1.96% to 99.1, indicating a weakening dollar[1] Economic Indicators - Analysts have revised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 Q2 to 2.4%, up from previous estimates[1] - The U.S. CPI inflation forecast for the upcoming quarters has been slightly lowered, with expected rates of 2.6% for Q2 2025[1] - The probability of a recession in the next year has decreased to 40% from 45%[1] Legislative Developments - The "Big Beautiful Bill" was passed in the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes, indicating potential fiscal challenges ahead[2] - The projected ten-year deficit is estimated at $2.505 trillion, down from a previous forecast of $2.69 trillion[2] - The bill includes tax cuts that may exacerbate concerns regarding U.S. fiscal sustainability, as revenue increases are expected to lag behind deficit increases[2] Market Reactions - Gold prices surged by 4.8% to $3,357 per ounce, driven by heightened market risk aversion following tariff threats from Trump[1] - The auction results for 20-year bonds in both the U.S. and Japan showed weak demand, contributing to rising long-term bond yields[1] - Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating has further fueled market concerns regarding liquidity and fiscal health[1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in COMEX gold prices is attributed to increased market concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability due to President Trump's proposed tax legislation, which could raise government debt by $3 to $5 trillion, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 21, COMEX gold is trading at $3,321.00 per ounce, reflecting a 0.86% increase, with a daily opening at $3,293.00 and a high of $3,322.10 [2] - The weakening of the dollar's safe-haven status is prompting a reassessment of gold's role as a store of value, driven by fiscal deterioration, potential interest rate cuts, and escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Reports indicate that Israel is planning potential strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, contributing to heightened geopolitical tensions and boosting safe-haven sentiment, which is favorable for gold prices [1] Group 3: Speculative Positioning - According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), non-commercial speculators' net long positions in gold increased to 251,300 contracts as of May 14, marking a nearly 7% week-over-week rise and the highest level in three months [1] - The continuous decline in short positions over the past three weeks indicates growing market confidence in further increases in gold prices [1]