2025年10月25日，2025外滩年会，外滩圆桌"全球治理变局和全球问题的应对"，Olivier BLANCHARD发言 布兰查德是当代国际宏观经济学领域的领军学者，其撰写的经典教材《宏观经济学》影响了几代经济学人。近年，他关于低利率环境下的财政政策以及后 疫情时代的通胀成因等前沿研究，广受全球学者和政策制定者的重视。作为法国人，布兰查德职业生涯的大部分时间在美国度过，这也使他同时兼具对美 国经济的深刻理解与地道的欧洲视角。 布兰查德指出，目前为止，美国关税政策对全球经济实际造成的混乱没有预想中严重，更多体现为巨大的"噪音"和不确定性。从美国经济来看，特朗普幸 运地赶上了AI投资热潮。AI给美国带来了强劲的生产率增长，虽然尚不明确这源于AI的广泛应用还是仅仅是投资拉动，但经济衰退大概率不会再出现。 预计在AI推动下，未来一段时期美国经济运行仍将保持良好态势。然而，通胀压力不显可能只是暂时现象，随着分销商重构利润空间，通胀压力终会显 现。 在他看来，特朗普政府对规则的无视是一种不明显但更为持久的损害——传统贸易规则不再可靠，这令全球贸易体系陷入困境，并可能进一步导致贸易减 少和长期增长放缓。美国国内政治进程亦 ...

Core Insights - Mondelez International, the parent company of Oreo, is significantly reducing marketing costs through investment in artificial intelligence, indicating a shift in the consumer goods industry towards new technologies to reshape advertising production [1] - The company has developed a generative AI tool in collaboration with Publicis Groupe and Accenture, which is expected to cut marketing content production costs by 30% to 50% [1][2] - The AI tool is already being utilized for social media content in the U.S. and Germany, with plans for broader application in major e-commerce platforms and future advertising campaigns [1][2] Group 1: AI Implementation and Cost Reduction - The AI tool has demonstrated cost efficiency in actual business applications, significantly lowering the production costs of marketing content compared to traditional methods [2] - For instance, the cost of an eight-second video for "Lacta" chocolate was reduced to a fraction of the traditional animation costs, which can reach hundreds of thousands of dollars [2] - The tool is set to enhance product displays for Oreo on major e-commerce platforms in the U.S. and will soon support marketing efforts in Brazil and the U.K. [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Caution - Competitors like Kraft Heinz and Coca-Cola are also exploring AI in advertising, with Coca-Cola having previously launched an AI-generated holiday ad that sparked discussions about authenticity [3] - Mondelez International is adopting a cautious approach by avoiding the use of lifelike human images in AI-generated content and ensuring all AI outputs undergo human review [3] - The company has established clear guidelines to ensure brand safety, prohibiting AI content that promotes unhealthy eating habits or uses manipulative language [3]

Core Insights - The departure of Cecilia Qi from GSK reflects significant strategic restructuring and industry changes faced by multinational pharmaceutical companies in the Chinese market [1][2][8] - GSK's financial report indicates a 5% year-on-year revenue growth for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching £15.50 billion (approximately $20.16 billion) [1][3] - The performance of GSK's vaccine segment showed a mixed result, with a 1% increase in revenue to £4.19 billion (approximately $5.44 billion), while sales of the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine Arexvy dropped by 39% [1][3] Financial Performance - GSK's revenue from specialty medicines, vaccines, and generics for the first half of 2025 was £6.26 billion (approximately $8.14 billion), £4.19 billion (approximately $5.44 billion), and £5.06 billion (approximately $6.73 billion) respectively, showing a 16% increase, 1% increase, and a 3% decrease year-on-year [3] - GSK anticipates a 3% to 5% growth in annual revenue for 2025, with core operating profit expected to rise by 6% to 8% [2] Strategic Adjustments - GSK has initiated a regional integration strategy in June 2023, merging emerging markets with Greater China and Intercontinental regions to enhance market flexibility and resource allocation efficiency [3] - The appointment of a Chief Operating Officer in China aims to improve local operational efficiency [3] Market Challenges - GSK faces pressure on its main product lines, with a shift from a "mature products + high margin" model to a more competitive landscape [4][5] - The company is experiencing stagnation in market share growth for its shingles vaccine Shingrix due to competition and price control measures [5] Industry Trends - There is a noticeable divergence in performance among multinational pharmaceutical companies in China, with companies like Novartis achieving an 8% year-on-year sales growth, while Merck's revenue dropped by 70% [6] - The trend indicates a shift from a "golden era" to a phase of "adaptive competition" for multinational pharmaceutical companies in the Chinese market [8] Talent Movement - The transition of high-level talent like Cecilia Qi from multinational firms to local companies signifies a trend where experienced professionals are leveraging their expertise to enhance local firms' competitiveness [12][14] - The collaboration between GSK and local companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical highlights the growing importance of partnerships with domestic firms to navigate the evolving market landscape [10][13]

Core Insights - The departure of Cecilia Qi from GSK after 21 years reflects significant strategic restructuring and industry changes faced by multinational pharmaceutical companies in the Chinese market [2][3][10] Financial Performance - GSK reported a total revenue of £15.502 billion (approximately $20.157 billion) for the first half of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase [2] - Revenue from GSK's vaccine segment reached £4.186 billion (approximately $5.443 billion), with a 1% year-on-year growth [2] - Sales of the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine Arexvy fell by 39% to £144 million (approximately $187 million) [2] - Sales of the shingles vaccine Shingrix decreased by 1% to £1.720 billion (approximately $2.236 billion) [2] - GSK anticipates a 3% to 5% growth in total revenue and a 6% to 8% increase in core operating profit for the full year of 2025 [2] Strategic Adjustments - GSK's business structure is based on three pillars: specialty medicines, vaccines, and generics, with respective revenues of £6.260 billion ($8.141 billion), £4.186 billion ($5.443 billion), and £5.056 billion ($6.573 billion) for the first half of 2025 [5] - GSK initiated a regional integration strategy in June 2025, merging emerging markets with Greater China and intercontinental regions to enhance market flexibility and resource allocation efficiency [5] - The appointment of a Chief Operating Officer in China aims to improve local operational efficiency [5] Market Challenges - GSK faces pressure on its main product lines, with growth drivers becoming insufficient, particularly in the vaccine and specialty drug sectors [6][7] - The company’s traditional high-margin model is under threat due to increased competition and pricing pressures from domestic generic drugs [7] - GSK's strategic focus has shifted towards oncology and immunology, but its pipeline in these areas lags behind competitors like Pfizer and AstraZeneca [7] Industry Trends - There is a noticeable divergence in performance among multinational pharmaceutical companies in China, with Novartis achieving $2.2 billion in sales (an 8% increase) while Merck's revenue plummeted by 70% to $1.075 billion [8][9] - The trend of multinational companies adjusting their strategies from broad coverage to focused approaches is evident, with companies like BMS and Merck restructuring their operations in China [9] - The flow of high-level talent from multinational firms to local companies is increasing, as these professionals bring valuable experience and global perspectives to enhance local competitiveness [12][13] Collaborations and Future Outlook - GSK's collaboration with Heng Rui Medicine, potentially worth up to $12 billion, aims to enhance its pipeline in respiratory and oncology treatments [11] - The shift in multinational companies' strategies indicates a transition from "in China, for China" to "in China, for the world," leveraging local talent and innovation for global markets [13]

Group 1 - A new company named Wuxi Aolirong New Materials Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1 million RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Yang Meihua [1] - The business scope includes general projects such as new material technology research and development, sales of metal materials, manufacturing of non-ferrous metal alloys, and sales of new metal functional materials [1] Group 2 - The company also engages in the sales of metal products, metal wire ropes and their products, power electronic components, electronic special materials, and the operation of wires and cables [1] - The company operates independently based on its business license, except for projects that require approval by law [1]

Core Points - Nepal's Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned amid widespread protests and violence, marking the end of his political career [1][1][1] - The resignation was prompted by "current extraordinary circumstances" in the country, with the aim of facilitating political resolution [1][1] - Protests erupted across Nepal, leading to significant casualties and damage to government buildings and public facilities [1][1][1] Government Response - Following Oli's resignation, the mayor of Kathmandu urged protesters to exercise restraint to prevent further loss of life and property [1][1] - The Chinese embassy in Nepal issued a warning for Chinese citizens and institutions to enhance security measures amid the ongoing unrest [1][1]

Group 1 - Nepal's Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned on September 9, 2023 [1] - Large-scale protests erupted in various cities of Nepal, including Kathmandu, Pokhara, and Janakpur, leading to casualties and property damage [3] - The Nepalese government implemented emergency curfews in response to the unrest [3] Group 2 - The Chinese Embassy in Nepal advised Chinese citizens and institutions to closely monitor the local security situation and enhance safety precautions [3] - Recommendations included avoiding unnecessary outings, adhering to local laws, and steering clear of political gatherings and protests [3] - Emergency contact numbers for local authorities and the Chinese Embassy were provided for assistance [3]

Core Points - Nepal's Prime Minister Oli has resigned, marking the end of his fourth term in office [1][3] - Oli was born in 1952 and joined the Nepal Communist Party in 1969, holding various significant political positions throughout his career [3] - He was first elected as Prime Minister in October 2015 and was re-elected in February 2018, with his latest term starting in July 2024 [3] Group 1 - Oli has served multiple terms as Prime Minister, indicating a significant political presence in Nepal [1][3] - His political career includes roles such as Minister of Home Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister, showcasing his extensive experience [3] - The merger of the Nepal Communist Party (Unified) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) in May 2018 led to his leadership of the newly formed party [3] Group 2 - During his tenure, Oli made several visits to China, including a notable speech at Peking University [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and Nepalese Prime Minister Oli emphasizes the strengthening of China-Nepal relations and the implementation of key agreements made by their leaders [1] Group 1: Bilateral Relations - Han Zheng highlighted the fruitful meeting between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Oli, which provided new strategic guidance for the development of China-Nepal relations [1] - China expresses willingness to work with Nepal to implement the important consensus reached by the leaders, aiming to advance the strategic partnership for mutual benefit [1] Group 2: Global Governance Initiative - Xi Jinping's global governance initiative is noted for its significant importance in promoting a more just and reasonable global governance system, which is expected to receive broad support from the international community [1] - Prime Minister Oli expressed gratitude for China's assistance in accelerating Nepal's national development vision and affirmed Nepal's commitment to the One China policy [1] Group 3: Belt and Road Initiative - Both parties expressed a desire to enhance cooperation in the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative projects, aiming to deepen bilateral relations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strengthening of bilateral relations between China and Nepal, as well as China and Myanmar, through high-level meetings and cooperation initiatives [1][2] - Chinese Vice President Han Zheng met with Nepalese Prime Minister Oli and Myanmar's Acting President Min Aung Hlaing to discuss the implementation of important consensus reached by their leaders [1] - Both Nepal and Myanmar expressed support for China's global governance initiative, emphasizing the importance of building a more just and reasonable global governance system [1][2] Group 2 - The article mentions that China is willing to work with Nepal to advance the strategic partnership and better benefit the peoples of both countries [1] - Myanmar's Acting President acknowledged China's rapid assistance following a recent earthquake, indicating a strong bilateral relationship and commitment to cooperation [2] - Both countries are keen to enhance collaboration in various fields and promote the construction of a China-Myanmar community of shared future [2]