宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 08 月 25 日 百炼成钢 ——宏观经济展望 2025-2026 投资要点： 全球经济正以美国对全球化规则的重构和中国持续努力的赶超为主线而 不断演进。各主要经济体之间的竞争，在实际经济增速、通胀（名义增速）、 汇率等方面此消彼长地展开，其背后是供需循环和金融体系之间的冲击与优化 过程。 宏 观 专 题 海外：关税—减税—降息，美国新"不可能三角"走向何处？"对等关税" 基本尘埃落定，美国商品消费维持高增。美国 3-7 月零售整体维持高增长中枢， 凸显前期关税不确定性并未导致商品消费需求的明显降温，后续趋势需结合通 胀和居民收入共同判断。就业遭冲击薪资逆势高增，关税向通胀传导可能延续。 美国就业走弱显示关税不确定性对供给侧造成短期冲击，但行业结构呈现短暂 走弱特征，并且由于边境管控强化导致劳动力供给大幅减少，薪资增速逆势反 弹，薪资通胀螺旋尚未解除。"大而美法案"对居民和企业减税，可能对供需 两侧形成支撑。考虑到关税不确定性的下降、以及新一轮减税法案可能在供需 两侧对美国经济形成的促进作用，并考虑美国净出口逆差可能趋于缩窄，预计 美国实际 GDP 增速下半年可能回升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint statement from the China-U.S. Stockholm economic talks indicates a shift towards more constructive and pragmatic negotiations, with both sides agreeing to maintain a stable framework for trade discussions and a temporary pause on additional tariffs [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiation Framework - China is currently the only country effectively countering U.S. pressure and transitioning the U.S.-China trade discussions from a highly politicized atmosphere to functional and pragmatic negotiations [2]. - The established negotiation mechanism has allowed for a return to a relatively stable communication and dialogue framework reminiscent of the pre-2018 trade environment [2]. - The framework includes clear delineation of issues of concern for both sides, facilitating ongoing high-level discussions [2]. Outcomes of the Stockholm Talks - The Stockholm joint statement introduced a "constructive" tone, reflecting an increase in satisfaction with the outcomes of the talks [3]. - The consensus reached emphasizes that certainty in trade relations is preferable to uncertainty, aiming to control the trade conflict at an acceptable level [5][6]. - The talks have resulted in a mutual understanding that unilateral pressure tactics from the U.S. are counterproductive, as they could lead to significant economic repercussions for the U.S. [6][8]. Future Implications - The joint statement signifies a continuation of the previous 90-day pause in tariff increases, maintaining the status quo in U.S.-China trade relations [12]. - There is an emphasis on the importance of maintaining a stable policy environment, with both sides agreeing to reciprocal actions regarding tariffs [12][13]. - The ongoing negotiations are expected to adhere to market economic principles, despite the U.S. government's various policy challenges [14]. Strategic Positioning - The current state of U.S.-China relations is characterized as a "strategic stability," indicating a recognition from both sides of the need for ongoing dialogue and negotiation [11]. - The ability of China to withstand U.S. strategic pressure and compel the U.S. to return to the negotiation table is seen as a significant achievement [11][9]. - The framework established through these negotiations is viewed as a foundation for future discussions, with the potential for more substantive agreements as both sides continue to engage [14].

当地时间 7 月 28 日至 29 日，中美经贸会谈在斯德哥尔摩举行，持续至晚间八点。双方同意延续部分关税暂停措施。 特朗普（资料图） 美方在会谈期间释放的访华条件显露出强硬姿态。特朗普通过社交媒体称，访华需以中方发出邀请为前提。美财长贝森特同步提出， 中国需扩大采购美国农产品、能源及工业品，停止进口俄罗斯与伊朗石油，否则将对中国企业征收 500% 的二级制裁关税。美国商务 部长卢特尼克则以禁止 TikTok 在美运营相威胁，要求中方出售其股权。这些条件将经贸问题与地缘政治捆绑，远超正常谈判范畴。 回溯 2025 年中美经贸交锋，对抗与博弈贯穿始终。2 月，美方以芬太尼问题为由对中国输美产品加征 10% 关税，中方随即反制。3 月，美方再次加征 10% 关税，中方在 WTO 起诉并跟进加征关税，涉及鸡肉、大豆等多个品类。4 月，美方终止对中国小额包裹的关 税豁免政策。5 月日内瓦会谈后，双方取消 91% 的加征关税，暂停 24% 的 "对等关税"。短短数月，关税税率在对抗中数次升降，反 映出双方博弈的激烈程度。 中方对美方条件的回应展现出原则与策略的平衡。外交部以 "目前没有可提供的消息" 回应访华邀请问题， ...

这种"谈判桌上装友好，谈判桌下捅刀子"的把戏，美国早已驾轻就熟。美国试图通过关税手段对印度、巴西等国施压，一方面是为了 弥补在与中方会谈中未达目标的损失，另一方面也是想借此分化国际社会，构建针对中国的"包围圈"。但这次，中国还会忍让吗？ 中美经贸会谈刚结束，双方就迫不及待亮出底牌。美国财长刚说完"合作愉快"，转头就对印度、巴西挥舞关税大棒；中国则直接约谈 英伟达，剑指美国芯片巨头安全漏洞。更劲爆的是，美国财长罕见承认：在某些关键领域，美国已经"没有筹码对中方提要求"。这场 博弈，到底谁在步步紧逼？ 1.谈判桌上的"理想"与谈判桌下的"算计" 7月28日至29日，中美第三轮经贸会谈在瑞典举行。官方通报称"谈得还算理想"——75人的中方代表团与15人的美方团队进行了广泛讨 论，代表团规模对比凸显双方对此次会谈的重视程度。但会谈刚结束，美国就暴露真面目：对印度加征25%关税、对巴西征收50%关 税、对韩国实施15%关税，还计划8月初窜访台湾地区。 贝森特（资料图） 2.美国的"后手"：关税大棒+政治挑衅 美国的套路很清晰：一边对中国示好，一边对其他国家施压。但这次可能打错了算盘： 对印度、巴西、韩国挥舞关税大棒的同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the backdrop of a complex international environment, highlighting the positive trends in China's economy and the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies to maintain stability in the RMB exchange rate [1][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - In the first half of 2025, the RMB appreciated nearly 2% against the USD compared to the end of the previous year, while the USD index fell over 10%, marking its worst performance since 1973 [2]. - The RMB exchange rate showed strong resilience, with a 0.65% appreciation in the first quarter, supported by effective policy measures and a stable domestic economy [2][4]. - The second quarter saw the RMB experience fluctuations due to US-China trade tensions, with the exchange rate initially depreciating before recovering to below 7.2 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - In the first five months of the year, fixed asset investment grew by 3.7%, retail sales increased by 5%, and exports rose by 7.2%, indicating a positive economic performance that supports the RMB [5]. - The international balance of payments remained stable, with a surplus of $101.9 billion in foreign exchange payments, reflecting foreign investors' confidence in RMB assets [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to experience fluctuations in the second half of the year, influenced by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the potential for US economic weakening [5][6]. - The US economic slowdown and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are anticipated to exert downward pressure on the USD, contributing to a dual-directional fluctuation of the RMB [7][8]. - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties in international trade negotiations may lead to temporary shocks in the RMB exchange rate, necessitating close monitoring of the situation [9].

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The core point of the recent US-China trade talks is the establishment of a "framework of measures" aimed at conditional cooperation, moving from sanctions to collaboration [1][2] - The trade discussions in London signify a shift in the underlying logic of US-China economic competition from traditional tariff wars to more complex issues involving supply chain and technology battles [1][2] - Trump's tariff war against China does not represent a broad consensus in the US, as it lacks political support and economic conditions [2][5] Group 2: Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's tariffs have faced significant opposition from various sectors, including consumers and financial elites, leading to a decline in market confidence [5][9] - The average tariff rate in the US has reached 18.8%, the highest since the 1930s, but the market currently believes it can absorb these costs without significant inflation [7][8] - The capital market's reaction to Trump's tariffs has been a major constraint on his policies, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a 19% drop from its peak [5][9] Group 3: Technology Export Controls - The true consensus in US policy towards China lies in technology export controls, which have become the main focus of US-China competition [11][12] - The Biden administration has maintained Trump's tariffs while shifting the focus to technology export restrictions, indicating a strategic decoupling in sensitive areas [11][12] - The US aims to limit China's development in strategic industries through various measures, including cutting off resources and technology [12][13] Group 4: China's Strategic Responses - In response to US technology export controls, China has implemented targeted measures, particularly in the rare earth sector, significantly reducing exports to the US [16][17] - China's dominance in the rare earth market, accounting for 70% of global production, gives it a strategic advantage in the ongoing trade conflict [16][17] - The recent framework agreement reflects a temporary arrangement where both countries are engaging in a supply chain balancing act, indicating a new era of economic competition [21][23] Group 5: Future Implications and Strategic Opportunities - The current geopolitical landscape presents China with a strategic opportunity to enhance its technological capabilities and self-sufficiency in critical areas [25][26] - The unpredictability of Trump's policies may create openings for China to negotiate and adjust its strategies effectively [24][25] - China's focus on technological innovation and resource management will be crucial in navigating the ongoing US-China competition [26]

Group 1 - The recent trade agreement between the US and China focuses on rare earth elements, which are crucial for various industries, including military and high-tech sectors [3][4][5] - The US has become increasingly dependent on China's rare earth supplies, especially for military equipment and advanced technology production [3][4] - The agreement includes provisions for China to approve export applications for controlled items, likely including rare earths, while the US will lift certain trade restrictions [4][5] Group 2 - The political context surrounding the agreement is significant, as President Trump aims to announce a deal before the July 4th Independence Day to bolster his domestic standing [5] - Despite the agreement, uncertainties remain regarding the stability of rare earth imports from China, as the approval process for export licenses is subject to China's discretion [5][7] - The trade agreement is seen as a step towards easing tensions in US-China relations, benefiting both countries' economies and potentially impacting global economic dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place on June 10, with both sides reaching a framework to implement the consensus from the June 5 call between the two heads of state and the Geneva talks [2] - The meeting is expected to enhance trust between China and the US, promoting a stable and healthy development of economic relations, which injects positive energy into global economic growth [2] - The Chinese government has issued opinions to deepen reforms and expand openness in the Shenzhen pilot area, aiming to promote high-quality development through institutional innovation [2] Group 2 - The World Bank has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, marking the second-lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis, with nearly 70% of countries seeing downward adjustments [3] - The economic growth forecast for the US has been reduced by 0.9 percentage points to 1.4%, while the Eurozone and Japan's growth expectations have been adjusted to 0.7% [3] - The current global economic landscape is facing complex challenges, with weakened economic vitality in major developed countries and uncertainties in trade and tariff policies affecting market confidence [3] Group 3 - On June 11, the A-share market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% to 3402.32 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.21% to 2061.87 points [4] - Among the sectors, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery showed strong performance, with increases of 2.21%, 2.02%, and 1.90% respectively [4] - A total of 3280 stocks rose while 1678 stocks fell, indicating a generally positive market sentiment [4] Group 4 - The market turnover was reported at 12,868.70 billion, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance increased to 18,169.95 billion [5] - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal suggests a positive trend for certain stocks [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the complexities and underlying tensions in the recent US-China trade negotiations, despite the temporary tariff reductions agreed upon [1][3][6] - The US has agreed to suspend 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days while maintaining a 10% tariff, and China has reciprocated by modifying tariffs on US goods [1][3] - Following the announcement, there was a significant surge in shipping orders from China to the US, with container transport orders increasing by nearly 300% [1] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that the trade negotiations are currently "somewhat stagnant," suggesting underlying issues remain unresolved [3] - The Trump administration has continued to impose restrictions on Chinese technology, including a global ban on Chinese chips and proposed new tariffs on cranes [3][5] - China's response to US tariffs has been to implement equivalent countermeasures, emphasizing a principle of reciprocity in negotiations [3][5] Group 3 - The US faces increasing legal challenges regarding its tariff policies, with courts ruling that some tariffs may be overreaching, complicating the administration's position [5] - The US is experiencing high inflation and supply chain disruptions, which are pressuring the government to soften its stance on tariffs [5] - China holds a dominant position in rare earth elements, controlling 90% of the separation technology and significantly impacting the US military supply chain [5][6] Group 4 - The recent trade talks are seen as a foundation for future economic cooperation, but the effectiveness of ongoing communication will determine global economic stability [6][8] - The 90-day truce may only serve as a pause in the ongoing US-China economic rivalry, with rare earths likely to be a focal point in future conflicts [6][8] - The article suggests that the outcome of the negotiations will depend on the US's ability to adopt a cooperative approach rather than a zero-sum mindset [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China has recognized the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration, oscillating between extreme pressure and hasty compromises in trade negotiations [1][3] - China does not hold any illusions about the U.S. and is prepared for various scenarios, reflecting a clear understanding shaped by historical lessons [1][3] - Recent high-level economic contacts between China and the U.S. have led to significant progress, including the establishment of a consultation mechanism and mutual tariff reductions [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. cannot truly decouple from China, as both economies are interdependent, with significant trade ties that cannot be easily severed [5][8] - The ongoing tariff battle serves as a lesson in international relations, demonstrating that strength and preparedness are crucial in dealing with aggressive tactics [5][8] - The situation highlights that engaging in dialogue with a bully is less effective than demonstrating strength, emphasizing that respect must be earned through assertiveness [8]