南华早报：知情人士认为，中国与美国周一在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩开始的贸易谈判将使关税休战期再度延长三个月，双方将承诺不彼此征收额外关税，也不会以其他方式升级贸易战。双方将就主要症结（例如美国对中国工业产能过剩的担忧）阐述自己的观点，而非取得具体突破。料中方将就芬太尼关税向美方施压。 https://t.co/CuLhQq7oHc ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has not lifted the so-called "fentanyl tariffs" imposed on Chinese imports, which is viewed as a bullying tactic that undermines trust and dialogue in drug control efforts between the two countries [1] Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - The Chinese National Narcotics Control Commission criticized the U.S. for its actions, stating that it severely damages the foundation for cooperation in drug control [1] - China is recognized as one of the countries with the strictest and most comprehensive drug control policies in the world [1] Group 2: International Cooperation - China actively engages in international cooperation on drug control and has offered humanitarian assistance to help the U.S. address its fentanyl crisis, with visible results [1] - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to reflect seriously and adopt a responsible approach to reduce drug demand at the source, rather than shifting blame [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the President unlimited authority to impose tariffs, leading to the annulment of related tariff measures [1][7]. Group 1: Court Ruling Details - The CIT combined two cases, one initiated by the Liberty Justice Center on behalf of five small businesses challenging the "reciprocal tariffs" and another by the Oregon Attorney General representing twelve states against global tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and fentanyl tariffs [3]. - The court confirmed that the IEEPA does not explicitly authorize the President to impose unlimited tariffs, which have significant economic and political implications [4][5]. - The ruling stated that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration exceeded the authority granted by the IEEPA and violated constitutional principles [6][7]. Group 2: Implications for Trade Policy - The ruling could represent a significant policy shift, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises that struggle to absorb the costs of tariffs [6]. - The decision emphasizes that trade decisions should not be made unilaterally by the President without Congressional authorization, reaffirming the importance of legislative oversight [4][5]. - The CIT's ruling applies nationwide, affecting all importers, but does not address tariffs authorized under other laws, such as those related to steel and aluminum [7].

美国三权分立制度近日再度显现其制衡效能，特朗普政府推动的关税政策遭遇司法系统当头棒喝。 追溯至特朗普首个总统任期，2018年启动的首轮关税战构成中美贸易摩擦的起点。这批针对中国商品单独加征的10%-20%关税已成为既成事实，其法律基础 和实施框架经多年运作已趋稳固，短期内不存在调整可能。 真正的变量集中在今年新增的两项关税措施：2月与3月接连出台的"芬太尼关税"，以及4月推出的全球性"对等关税"。 "芬太尼关税"以打击毒品泛滥为名，实则延续了特朗普政府将安全问题与贸易议题挂钩的策略，该政策分两次对中国商品加征10%关税，形成20%的叠加效 应。值得注意的是，这项单边制裁迄今未遭遇司法挑战，其法律有效性仍在延续。 相较之下，4月启动的"对等关税"则呈现不同命运。央视报道明确提及"美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日'解放日'宣布的关税政策生效"，也就是 在中美联合声明发布后双方互加的10%关税。 根据美国国际贸易法院最新裁决，特朗普今年4月2日以"对等关税"名义对全球贸易伙伴加征的关税被阻止。那么是不是意味着美国不再对中国商品加关税 了？并不是这么理解的，要搞清当前局面，需从美国对华关税政策的时空脉络展开 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the recent adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States, where both countries have agreed to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, marking a temporary easing of trade tensions [1][3] - Following the tariff adjustments, there has been a surge in demand from American buyers for Chinese goods, with many U.S. companies pre-loading containers in anticipation of the changes [3][5] - The logistics company ITS Logistics predicts a 20% increase in shipping costs from China to the U.S. West Coast in the coming weeks, indicating a critical period for inventory accumulation for shippers and carriers [3][5] Group 2 - Despite the short-term benefits, U.S. businesses, especially small enterprises, express concerns about the potential policy shifts after the 90-day period, as they still face a 30% tariff burden [5][6] - The ongoing fentanyl tariff issue remains contentious, with the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl control, which China disputes [6][8] - The future trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations hinges on negotiations regarding the suspended tariffs and the fentanyl tariffs, emphasizing the need for constructive dialogue to resolve underlying tensions [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's stance on the U.S. imposing a 20% special tariff on Chinese exports under the pretext of fentanyl issues, asserting that fentanyl is primarily a U.S. problem and not a Chinese one [1] - The Chinese government expresses that the U.S. has ignored China's goodwill and that the imposition of tariffs severely impacts the dialogue and cooperation between the two countries in drug control [1] - The spokesperson urges the U.S. to engage in dialogue with China in a manner that is equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial, rather than resorting to blame and smear tactics [1]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 12 日 中美贸易摩擦达峰兑现 ──中美联合声明传递的信号 核心观点 2025 年以来美国额外对华加征的整体关税水平在未来 90 天内由 145%降至 30%。展 望未来，"芬太尼关税"和"对等关税"可能一下一上，整体关税维持 30%附近。当前美 国对华关税分为 20%的芬太尼关税和 34%的"对等关税"（未来 90 天内 10%）， "芬 太尼关税"随中美谈判下行，但"对等关税"在 90 天后可能重新上行。 关税下调后，我国年内逆周期政策调节必要性下降，风险偏好助推科技股行情。 ❑ 中美会谈释放善意，2025 年以来美国对华整体关税水平由 145%降至 30%。 2025 年 5 月 12 日，中美双方公布 5 月 10 日至 11 日瑞士贸易谈判联合宣言，未 来 90 天内美国对华额外税率降至约 30%（20%芬太尼关税+10%"对等关税"）， 中国对美进口关税同步调降，并取消非关税反制措施。宣言内容主要有 3 点： 一是取消 4 月 8 日以来中美因关税反制而两次加征的额外关税，美方承诺取消 4 月 8 日以来 ...