Group 1 - The recent dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erica Groshen, by President Trump has raised concerns about the integrity of employment data in the U.S. [1][2] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a rise in the unemployment rate and only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added in July, which fell short of market expectations [1] - Significant downward revisions were made to the job growth figures for May and June, indicating a cooling labor market and potentially reflecting previously underestimated economic concerns [1][2] Group 2 - Trump's continued criticism of employment data suggests an attempt to shift blame for poor job market performance, likening it to blaming referees after a sports loss [2] - Analysts emphasize that reliable economic data is crucial for decision-making by businesses and policymakers, and the recent actions threaten the credibility of U.S. economic statistics [3] - The political interference in the BLS may undermine the authority and trustworthiness of the data, potentially impacting economic policy and market confidence [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve Chair, highlighting that two of the leading candidates support interest rate cuts, which could lead to a rate decrease in September [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - Trump has identified four candidates for the future Federal Reserve Chair, with two of them explicitly supporting interest rate cuts [1] - The potential appointment of a "friendly" Federal Reserve Chair could facilitate Trump's long-desired interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July unexpectedly showed stagnation in service sector activity [1] - There are concerns among the public regarding the reliability of economic data, especially after the recent dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau head due to unfavorable data [1] Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's approach to economic data and personnel decisions reflects a pattern of addressing issues by targeting individuals rather than the underlying problems [1] - The article raises questions about the credibility of U.S. economic data in light of political pressures on data reporting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's recent firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erika McEntarfer, as part of a broader strategy to reshape how economic data is presented to the public and markets, raising concerns about the credibility of U.S. government data [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Data Manipulation - Trump's actions reflect a long-standing dissatisfaction with economic data that does not align with his narrative, indicating a potential shift in how economic statistics are interpreted and reported [2][3]. - The firing of McEntarfer is seen as an escalation in Trump's efforts to influence economic data, with implications for the future operations of the BLS and other government agencies [2][3]. - Trump's claims that the data overseen by McEntarfer was a "scam" suggest a deeper confusion about the integrity of the underlying data rather than just the presentation of it [2][3]. Group 2: Focus on Employment and GDP - Trump's administration has historically focused on employment data concerning native-born Americans, often disregarding statistics that include foreign-born workers [4]. - The administration's economic advisors have suggested that a new perspective is needed for interpreting economic output data, including a push for a GDP measure that excludes government spending [5]. - The concept of Private Industry Value Added (VAPI) has emerged as a metric that aligns with the administration's focus on private sector contributions to the economy [5]. Group 3: Data Presentation Strategies - The article highlights a trend where the Trump administration selectively emphasizes certain economic indicators to present a more favorable economic outlook, such as focusing on a higher annualized GDP growth rate while downplaying lower underlying growth potential [6]. - Recent inflation data has also been selectively interpreted, with the administration highlighting lower figures that suit their narrative while ignoring broader inflation trends [6]. - The administration's response to disappointing employment reports has included outright dismissal of the data as "fake," further complicating the public's trust in government statistics [7].

抨击鲍威尔，火力全开 过去六个月，特朗普对美联储的批评从未停歇，尤其是对主席鲍威尔的不满达到了顶点。他多次公开指责鲍威尔 未能及时降息，拖累了美国经济。在7月就业报告发布前的上周五（8月1日），特朗普在社交媒体上更是火力全 开，称鲍威尔为"顽固的白痴"，指责其货币政策迟缓导致经济隐患。这种激烈的言辞不仅点燃了市场对美联储政 策的关注，也让特朗普的立场显得越发强硬。 就业数据引爆市场 汇通财经APP讯——在全球经济风向瞬息万变的当下，美国 总统特朗普因疲弱的就业数据而做出的激进举动引发 了市场轩然大波。他不仅公开抨击美联储 主席鲍威尔，还在毫无证据的情况下解雇劳工统计局局长，这一行为被 广泛认为是政治干预独立机构的危险信号。不仅如此，这一"搬石头砸自己脚"的决策还削弱了市场对美国经济数 据的信心，推高了不确定性溢价。 怒斥美联储：降息之争的导火索 特朗普的决定迅速点燃了学术界和金融界的怒火。经济学家们指出，数据的修正并不意味着统计局存在问题。耶 鲁大学预算实验室经济主任Ernie Tedeschi在X平台上明确表示，劳工统计局的非农就业数据初次预估的准确性正 在提高，而非下降。就业数据的波动和修正属于正常现象， ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding the credibility of U.S. institutions, which may lead to further selling pressure on the dollar and other U.S. assets [1][6]. Group 1: Economic and Market Implications - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, a hawkish figure, may accelerate market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 94.4% probability of a rate cut in September now priced in by the market [3][5]. - The recent weak non-farm payroll data has prompted traders to increase bets on Fed rate cuts, contributing to a decline in the dollar against all G10 currencies [1][3]. - The ICE Dollar Index fell to a one-week low of 98.58, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index down nearly 8% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Political Influence on Economic Data - Trump's recent actions, including the firing of the Labor Statistics Bureau head, have raised concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic data, potentially leading to a higher risk premium for U.S. assets [1][6]. - Analysts suggest that the political pressure exerted by Trump on the Fed has undermined its independence, further complicating the market's perception of U.S. economic data reliability [6][8]. - The potential nomination of close Trump associates to key economic positions could negatively impact investor sentiment towards the dollar [6][8]. Group 3: Future Leadership of the Fed - The upcoming nomination for the Fed chair position is seen as a risk event for the market, especially with speculation surrounding potential candidates [8]. - Candidates with prior Fed experience, such as Kevin Warsh, are viewed more favorably compared to those closely associated with Trump, like Kevin Hassett [7][8].

金十数据8月4日讯，瑞讯银行高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya说，如果美国非农就业人数连续六个月低于 5万人，就会被视为经济衰退的信号。因此，美国可能已经做到了一半。好消息是，对经济衰退的担忧 加强了美联储降息的预期；坏消息是，疲软的经济并不是特朗普承诺的一部分。降息不会神奇地拯救市 场，把政府混乱的政策的后果归咎于劳工统计局可能会损害美国经济数据的可信度。 机构：把劳工统计局当作替罪羊将损害美国经济数据可信度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director by President Trump due to dissatisfaction with employment data has raised concerns about the integrity of economic data and its implications for the U.S. economy and markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Impact - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a rise in the unemployment rate for July, with only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below market expectations [3]. - Revised data for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs compared to initial reports, indicating a slowdown in economic output and consumer spending [3][4]. - Economists and former officials express concern that political interference could distort economic data, undermining trust in government statistics [4]. Group 2: Political Reactions and Implications - Republican Senator Lummis criticized the dismissal, suggesting it raises issues about the accuracy of the data and the appropriateness of the action [3]. - Democratic leaders condemned Trump's decision, arguing it reflects a pattern of disregarding unfavorable information [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The simultaneous departures of key officials have contributed to market instability, with the S&P 500 experiencing its largest single-day drop since May [5]. - Market analysts predict that the uncertainty surrounding these changes will negatively impact the U.S. dollar, as the credibility of the Federal Reserve is seen as crucial for maintaining its strength [5]. - The upcoming vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may allow Trump to appoint a successor to Chairman Powell, potentially influencing future monetary policy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erica McEntyre, by President Trump following disappointing employment data raises concerns about the integrity and independence of U.S. economic data [1][3][4]. Group 1: Employment Data and Reactions - The BLS reported only 73,000 new jobs added in July, significantly below market expectations, and revised down the previous two months' data by a total of 258,000 jobs [1][3]. - Trump's immediate response was to label the data as "manipulated" and to fire McEntyre, indicating a belief that the data was politically biased against him and the Republican Party [3][4]. - The dismissal has sparked outrage among economists and market participants, who worry about the future credibility of U.S. economic statistics [1][4][13]. Group 2: Implications for Data Integrity - Critics argue that Trump's actions undermine the BLS's long-standing commitment to independence and non-partisanship, which is crucial for public and market trust in economic data [4][5]. - The BLS has historically maintained its work as independent, and politicizing the agency could damage the entire federal statistical system that has been in place for nearly 150 years [5][13]. - The low response rates in employment surveys and budget cuts to the BLS have contributed to the inaccuracies in employment data, leading to significant revisions [9][10][12]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The economic data's credibility has been questioned, with some suggesting that strong data may have previously exaggerated the health of the U.S. economy, potentially benefiting Trump's policies [9]. - The BLS has faced challenges such as budget cuts and staff shortages, which have worsened under Trump's administration, impacting the quality of data collection [9][10]. - The low response rates from businesses in employment surveys have led to increased reliance on interpolation, which can result in larger revisions when actual data becomes available [12].