Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged to nearly $3,700 per ounce, marking an increase of almost 40% from last year, driven by several key factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakening confidence in the US dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3][21]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The primary driver of rising gold prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [5][7]. - Weak US employment data has led to a consensus that a rate cut is imminent, causing the US dollar index to weaken and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to drop to a five-month low of below 4.1% [7][9]. - The declining confidence in the US dollar is evident, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping from 71% in 2000 to 58% currently, prompting investors to seek alternatives like gold [9]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty [9][11]. - Central banks globally have been significant buyers of gold, purchasing 1,045 tons in 2024 and 483 tons in the first half of 2025, indicating strong institutional support for gold [11]. Group 2: Risks and Considerations - Despite the bullish outlook from institutions like UBS and Goldman Sachs, potential risks include a resurgence of inflation, which could lead to unexpected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, negatively impacting gold prices [11][13]. - High gold prices may deter consumer demand for gold jewelry, which accounts for approximately 40% of total gold demand, potentially affecting overall market dynamics [13][15]. - The strength of the US dollar remains a variable; if the US economy improves, the dollar may strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold prices [15]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to view gold as a long-term asset for risk hedging rather than a quick profit tool, suggesting a holding period of at least 3-5 years [17][19]. - It is recommended to invest in physical gold (like bars or coins) or gold ETFs, which track the spot price of gold and offer liquidity without the high costs associated with gold jewelry [19][21]. - A strategy of dollar-cost averaging is suggested, where investments are made in increments to mitigate the impact of price volatility [19][21].

Group 1 - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that inflation trends have once again become a focal point for monetary policy [1][3] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding noted that current inflation risks slightly exceed labor market risks, suggesting that monetary policy is in a relatively ideal position [1][3] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is expected to draw attention, with the theme focusing on the transforming labor market and macroeconomic policy [3][8] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the conference, with investors looking for signals regarding the September interest rate meeting [6][8] - Discussions on the timing of potential rate cuts depend on whether policymakers believe current policies are "overly restrictive," with Schmieding suggesting that existing policies are "moderately tight" [6][8] - Recent economic data, including a surprising rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, has added complexity to policy-making [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show a rebound in inflation, influenced by tariffs, with analysts predicting a year-on-year increase from 2.7% in June to 2.8% in July [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Analysts anticipate that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, will see a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking a six-month high [1][2]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest with a lag of 3 to 5 months, indicating that July's CPI data will reflect the influence of tariffs on prices [2][3]. - Core goods inflation is projected to rise, with significant upward pressure on prices for imported goods such as furniture and electronics, potentially increasing core inflation by 0.12 percentage points [3][4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The energy sector is expected to show a continued decline, with gasoline prices experiencing a larger year-on-year drop, while used car and housing prices are also projected to decrease due to high interest rates and reduced demand [2][3]. - The service sector, which constitutes 61% of the CPI basket, has been experiencing a downward trend, but this effect is expected to diminish, with core service prices projected to rise by 0.3% in July [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased significantly, with an 84.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [5][6]. - However, the potential rebound in inflation may complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts, as some members express caution about immediate policy changes [8][9]. Market Reactions - The market's response to the July CPI data will be closely monitored, with analysts suggesting that if core inflation remains around 0.3%, it may not disrupt the stock market significantly [9][10]. - A higher-than-expected core CPI could lead to a decline in the S&P 500 index, with specific thresholds outlined for potential market movements based on CPI results [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the recent increase in U.S. tariffs has not yet led to a significant rebound in inflation, but this situation may change in the near future due to several factors that have previously delayed the transmission of tariff impacts on inflation [2][4][14]. Group 1: Factors Delaying Inflation Transmission - Statistical method flaws have led to an underestimation of recent inflation, with seasonal adjustment models failing to accurately reflect the current economic conditions, potentially lowering the inflation readings by about 20 basis points [4][17][24]. - Adjustments in corporate behavior, such as delaying tariff payments and absorbing costs, have also contributed to the lag in inflation transmission [6][30]. - Economic growth slowdown has countered the inflationary pressures from tariffs, particularly affecting service inflation, which has been declining [35][38]. Group 2: Anticipated Inflation Trends - The article predicts that inflation in the U.S. may see an upward turning point in the next 1-2 months, with core CPI expected to rise from a range of 10-20 basis points to 30-40 basis points, potentially exceeding 3% [7][42]. - The anticipated inflation upturn is expected to last for about a year, influenced by both direct and indirect effects of tariffs on consumer prices [8][50][56]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The potential rebound in inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, creating uncertainty around the timing and extent of future rate cuts [9][69]. - If inflation rises while economic growth remains stable, the Fed may face a dilemma, making it challenging to implement aggressive rate cuts [9][69]. Group 4: Asset Market Implications - A rapid inflation rebound could negatively impact various asset classes, particularly U.S. equities and bonds, while the dollar may benefit in the short term but face medium-term uncertainties [10][11]. - Gold and Chinese assets are expected to show relative resilience, with recommendations to increase allocations in these areas [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The speculation regarding a rebound in U.S. inflation persists due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [1] Group 1 - The comments from Takeda So, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, highlight concerns about inflationary pressures in the U.S. resulting from trade policies [1]

特朗普这次胜选破了一个纪录，他成为了美国历史上最年长的总统，4年前他曾嘲笑拜登太老，但今天的他比当时的拜登还要老5个月。 铺天盖地的新闻你们肯定已经都看了，特朗普以较大优势击败哈里斯，第二次当选美国总统。虽然还有5个州的选票没有统计，但特朗普已经获得超过270 的选举人票，提前胜出。 之前民意调查说两人势均力敌，甚至哈里斯还略微领先，但等到真开始投票直接一边倒向特朗普，七个摇摆州哈里斯一个都没赢。 所以特朗普当选对美股不是坏事，对a股也不是坏事，那对谁是利空呢？当然是泽连斯基，他大概是今天除了哈里斯外最失望的人，特朗普不止一次说过 一旦当选就会尽快结束乌克兰的战争，没了美国和北约的军援，乌克兰撑两个星期都相当不容易。 …… 今天a股成交2.57万亿，进一步放量，上午的时候涨挺好，但盘中貌似受美国选情影响有一波跳水，最后收盘中位数仅微涨0.09%。 至于像特朗普这样当一届，输一届，再翻回来赢一届的，历史上还有一位，是1884年、1892年的总统克利夫兰，他在1888年输给了本杰明哈里 森。 特朗普的政治主张和经济有关的，包括了对美国企业和个人减税，对外增加关税（主要目标中国和欧盟）、限制和驱逐非法移民、减少新能 ...