华福证券 2026 年 01 月 10 日 宏 观 研 究 就业供需矛盾加剧 ——2025 年 12 月美国非农就业数据点评 投资要点： 宏 新增非农就业延续放缓。12 月新增非农就业降至 5 万人，低于预期的 6 万人，与 12 月 ADP 就业不及预期相互印证；前值修正方面，10 月和 11 月共下修了 7.6 万人。私人部门就业数据上看，12 月新增 3.7 万人，11-12 月（不考虑 10 月）平均新增为 4.3 万人，三季度均值为 5.7 万人，整体上 新增就业逐步放缓趋势不变。结构上看，仍旧是传统服务业贡献主要增量。 观 点 评 失业率意外回落。12 月失业率回落 0.1 个百分点至 4.4%，前值也下修 0.1 个百分点至 4.5%，劳动参与率降至 62.4%。分失业原因看，12 月份重 返就业市场人口和被裁员失业人口是主要拖累，而这两项是 11 月失业率超 预期回升的主要贡献，指向本月失业率回落可能是 10-11 月政府停摆期间 导致非农统计工作异常的修正。平滑来看，11-12 月重返就业市场人口和被 裁员失业人口分别为 1.2 万人和 9.6 万人，分别对应劳动参与率企稳和企业 裁员意愿较 ...

报 告 正 文 新增非农就业延续放缓。 12月新增非农就业降至5万人，低于预期的6.5万人，与12月ADP就业不及预期相互印证；前值修正方面，与 上次报告相比，10月和11月共下修了7.6万人。私人部门就业数据上看，12月新增3.7万人，11-12月（不考虑10月）平均新增为4.3万 人，三季度均值为5.7万人，整体上新增就业逐步放缓趋势不变。 传统服务业贡献主要增量。 分行业来看， 12月休闲酒店和教育保健分别新增4.7万人和4.1万人，依旧贡献主要就业增量；美国政府"重 启"后，政府部门就业也出现小幅回补，单月新增就业1.3万人，后续政府部门就业有望逐步企稳；制造业新增就业延续负增，指向美 国制造业需求仍处于相对底部；运输仓储业新增就业环比虽增加1.9万人，但绝对值仍旧为负；商业服务、建筑业以及零售业分别新 增-0.9万人、-1.1万人和-2.5万人，是主要拖累，其中商业服务业和建筑业环比分别减少2.2万人和3.3万人，跌幅也是最大的。 失业率意外回落。 12月失业率回落0.1个百分点至4.4%，前值也下修0.1个百分点至4.5%，劳动参与率降至62.4%。分失业原因看，12月 份重返就业市场人口和被裁员 ...

Overview - The core point of the article is that the U.S. labor market showed resilience in November, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [1][2]. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, a significant recovery from October's loss of 105,000 jobs [4]. - The private sector added 69,000 jobs in November, up from 52,000 in October, indicating a stable expansion despite government sector disruptions [3][5]. - The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from September, attributed partly to a rise in the labor participation rate to 62.5% [1][3]. Wage Growth - Hourly wage growth showed a decline, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October [1][4]. - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages fell from 4.2% in October to 3.1% in November [3][4]. Sector Contributions - The service sector remained the primary contributor to job growth, adding 50,000 jobs, with healthcare being a significant driver [3][5]. - The goods-producing sector saw a marginal improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily due to gains in construction, while manufacturing and mining continued to decline [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 slightly increased, with a 2 basis point rise to 60 basis points [1]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 3.48%, while the 10-year yield remained stable at 4.16% [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm employment data for November exceeded expectations, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated [1][4] - The report shows an increase of 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 45,000 jobs, with significant contributions from the healthcare and construction sectors [5][6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021, indicating potential concerns about job market stability [6] Group 2 - Following the employment data release, international oil prices fell sharply, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping below $60 [3] - The U.S. stock market opened lower, with the Dow Jones index down 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.18%, and the Nasdaq down 0.23%, reflecting market reactions to the employment data [3] - The Federal Reserve's likelihood of further interest rate cuts remains low, with a 24.4% probability of a rate cut in January, according to market predictions [8]

Group 1 - The private sector in the U.S. unexpectedly lost 32,000 jobs in November, indicating a further slowdown in the labor market [1] - Small businesses were particularly hard hit, with companies having fewer than 50 employees losing 120,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [4] - In contrast, large companies (those with 50 or more employees) added 90,000 jobs, with the education and healthcare sectors leading the way with an increase of 33,000 jobs [4] Group 2 - Wage growth has slowed, with salaries for retained employees rising 4.4% year-over-year, down 0.1 percentage points from October [5] - The ADP report is significant as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, where there is a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut [5] - Recent weeks have seen mixed opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the necessity of further rate cuts to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [5]

Employment Data - In September 2025, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, against an expectation of 4.3%[2] Job Sector Analysis - The education and health services sectors contributed 59,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality added 47,000 jobs, together accounting for 89.1% of the total job growth[3] - The manufacturing sector saw a slight improvement, with a job loss of only 6,000 compared to a loss of 15,000 in the previous month[2] Economic Implications - The increase in unemployment rate and the reliance on part-time jobs in key sectors suggest that the job market may not be as strong as the headline figures indicate[3] - The market's focus has shifted from job creation to the rising unemployment rate, with a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December to 39.1%[5] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve may only have room for one 25 basis point rate cut before the chairmanship change in May 2026, as the current benchmark rate is approximately 40 basis points above neutral levels[6][3] - The overall labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%, with a notable decline in immigrant labor supply[3] Wage Growth Concerns - Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% in September from 0.4% in August, particularly in the service sector, raising concerns about purchasing power amid rising inflation[3]

Employment Data - In September, non-farm employment increased by 119,000, but the previous values for July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000[4] - The education, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality sectors were the main contributors to job growth, with government and construction sectors seeing the largest increases of 44,000 and 33,000 jobs respectively[5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, marking the highest level since the end of 2021, primarily due to an increase in labor force participation[12] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in September saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.8%[15] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the business services and financial sectors, at 4.8% and 4.5% respectively[15] - Wage growth has been declining since November 2024, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor supply is exceeding demand, with the labor demand gap widening to -157,000 in August, indicating more unemployed individuals than job vacancies[12] - The U6 unemployment rate slightly decreased to 8%, reflecting stabilization in the marginal labor market[12] - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased to 40%, although this is a significant drop from the previous week[19] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a stabilization in the labor market, with non-farm employment increasing by 119,000 in September, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [2][18] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, primarily due to an increase in the labor participation rate, indicating more individuals are re-entering the workforce [7][18] - The report indicates that the labor supply is exceeding demand, with job vacancies rising to 7.23 million, leading to a labor market that is gradually shifting towards oversupply [9][18] Group 2 - Employment growth in September was mainly supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, with government and construction jobs seeing the largest increases [4][18] - Wage growth has shown signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and remaining stable at 3.8% year-over-year [11][18] - The construction and education/healthcare sectors experienced the most significant declines in wage growth, each decreasing by approximately 0.4 percentage points [13][18] Group 3 - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, saw a slight decline, with real hourly earnings increasing by 0.7% year-over-year in August, down by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [16][18] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in December has become more uncertain, as this report serves as the last employment data before the December FOMC meeting [18]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in non-farm employment in June is primarily supported by government jobs, while private sector employment shows significant weakness [1][2][15] Employment Data - In June, non-farm employment rose to 147,000, with government contributing half of the new jobs, mainly in state and local education, while private sector jobs fell sharply to 74,000 from 137,000 in May [1][2][4] - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating more individuals are exiting the labor market [6][15] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, marking a continued decline since November 2024 [8][11] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was seen in business services and finance at 5.3% and 4.3%, while manufacturing and retail experienced the largest declines in wage growth [11][13] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings rose to 7.76 million in May, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, indicating a balance between labor supply and demand [10] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with a decrease in private sector job creation and an increase in the number of people leaving the workforce [15] Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [15]

Employment Data - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000, despite a downward revision of 95,000 in the previous two months[5] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24% in April, up from 4.19% in March, marking a near three-year high[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped significantly to 16.7% following the employment data release[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential cuts in September and either November or December[2] - Market expectations for policy rates have shifted closer to the Federal Reserve's stance rather than the White House's position[2] Sector Performance - Service sector employment rose from 132,000 to 145,000, indicating resilience in this area, while goods-producing jobs fell from an increase of 11,000 to a decrease of 5,000[5] - Average hourly earnings saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%[5] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio remains at 1, below the 2019 level, indicating a balanced labor market[5]