Core Viewpoint - The increase in non-farm employment in June is primarily supported by government jobs, while private sector employment shows significant weakness [1][2][15] Employment Data - In June, non-farm employment rose to 147,000, with government contributing half of the new jobs, mainly in state and local education, while private sector jobs fell sharply to 74,000 from 137,000 in May [1][2][4] - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating more individuals are exiting the labor market [6][15] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, marking a continued decline since November 2024 [8][11] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was seen in business services and finance at 5.3% and 4.3%, while manufacturing and retail experienced the largest declines in wage growth [11][13] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings rose to 7.76 million in May, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, indicating a balance between labor supply and demand [10] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with a decrease in private sector job creation and an increase in the number of people leaving the workforce [15] Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [15]

Employment Data - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000, despite a downward revision of 95,000 in the previous two months[5] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24% in April, up from 4.19% in March, marking a near three-year high[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped significantly to 16.7% following the employment data release[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential cuts in September and either November or December[2] - Market expectations for policy rates have shifted closer to the Federal Reserve's stance rather than the White House's position[2] Sector Performance - Service sector employment rose from 132,000 to 145,000, indicating resilience in this area, while goods-producing jobs fell from an increase of 11,000 to a decrease of 5,000[5] - Average hourly earnings saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%[5] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio remains at 1, below the 2019 level, indicating a balanced labor market[5]

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Core Viewpoint - The April non-farm payroll data indicates a slight decline in employment growth, with potential implications for the overall labor market stability and economic outlook [1][3][17]. Group 1: Employment Data - In April, the non-farm employment increased by 177,000, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month [3]. - The combined downward revision of 58,000 jobs for February and March suggests a cooling trend in the job market [3]. - The three-month moving average of non-farm employment indicates a downward trend, pointing to a continued softening in the employment market [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in April was primarily concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors (70,000), transportation and warehousing (29,000), and leisure and hospitality (24,000) [5]. - Retail and leisure hotel sectors experienced the most significant declines, with reductions of 24,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively [5]. Group 3: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in April, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate by 0.1 percentage points [7]. - The U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.8%, indicating a stable employment market [7]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The number of job vacancies decreased to 7.19 million in March, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, the lowest in nearly six months [9]. - The labor supply-demand gap recorded 110,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [9]. Group 5: Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth in April showed a slight month-over-month decrease to 0.2%, while year-over-year growth remained steady at 3.8% [10]. - The highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively [12]. - Real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, increased to 1.4% in March, reflecting a steady increase in wage income [15]. Group 6: Economic Outlook - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have been slightly adjusted to 3.5 times for the year, indicating a moderation in economic risk concerns [17]. - Despite the stable employment data, the impact of government layoffs and ongoing economic policy uncertainties may continue to dampen hiring prospects [17].