白银近期价格波动的原因是什么？ 白银近期价格波动主要受到几个因素的影响。首先，从去年（2025 年）11 月 开始，白银价格从低位快速上涨至接近 120 美元的高点，这期间积累了大量获 利盘，导致市场存在较大的获利回吐压力。其次，微软公布财报后，由于资本 支出较高，引发了市场对其利润前景的担忧，导致股市、比特币、有色金属、 原油等资产普遍下跌，包括贵金属在内也受到影响。此外，美联储主席人选的 不确定性也加剧了市场波动。沃勒作为鹰派候选人，其支持率变化引发了市场 对美联储货币政策独立性的担忧。同时，美国 CME 提高贵金属保证金要求，使 得多头持有仓位所需资金增加，加速了价格调整的深度。 伦敦现货市场紧缺因 ETF 需求和印度等国终端需求激增。10 月印度进 口量激增至 1,800 吨，推动伦敦价格相对于美国和国内大幅升水，并出 现货源回流现象。 白银近期上涨由终端需求推动，包括 ETF 和实物投资，而非期货买盘。 基本面良好，预计上半年仍看涨，95 美元为第一支撑位，85 美元为风 控参考点。美联储主席更替影响市场预期，鹰派可能短期利空，但长期 财政压力或难改宽松方向。 对于白银未来的投资策略应如何展望？ 白 ...

智通财经1月28日讯（编辑 潇湘）随着贝莱德首席投资官里克·里德尔有望接替鲍威尔的预期日益高涨， 部分期货和期权市场交易员正加码押注美联储将转向鸽派政策。 数据显示，自上周五以来，随着原本胜算几近于零的里德尔在博彩预测市场中一跃成为美联储下任主席 的头号热门人选，与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)及美联储政策基准利率——联邦基金利率挂钩的利率 期货市场正涌入大量资金。 周一公布的联邦基金期货和SOFR期货未平仓合约数据显示，市场对新交易的兴趣日益浓厚，这些交易 有望从比当前定价更激进的降息路径中获益。显著的资金流包括7月-8月一个月期联邦基金期货价差以 及6月-12月六个月期SOFR 价差所出现的创纪录的成交量。 智通财经上周末曾介绍过，据熟悉白宫决策的人士透露，贝莱德高管里克·里德尔在华尔街的资历以及 对美联储改革持开放态度的立场，正增强了他获得这一联储最高职位的筹码。知情人士透露，这位贝莱 德高管不仅具备央行行长的形象气质，其提出的诸多美联储改革构想也吸引了特朗普总统的关注。 这些要求匿名讨论内部对话的人士表示，里德尔的另一优势在于他从未在美联储任职——这与另外几位 最终候选人不同——因此被视为不受该机构束 ...

Core Insights - President Trump has indicated he has a preferred candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chair and plans to announce this choice soon, potentially during the week of January 26 [2] - Wolfe Research highlights a significant time window for the announcement, particularly during the FOMC meeting, suggesting a strategic move to shift market focus away from the Fed's lack of rate cuts [2] - The announcement is expected to fill the vacancy left by the Fed Governor's seat, which will be vacated on January 31, with a nomination likely before the March FOMC meeting [2] Candidate Analysis - Market reactions suggest that Rick Rieder from BlackRock and Kevin Hassett are viewed as relatively dovish candidates, while Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh are seen as more hawkish [3] - Hassett's potential appointment could steepen the yield curve, whereas Warsh's nomination might flatten it [3] - Wolfe Research indicates that Hassett has a higher probability of being nominated than the current market prediction of 6%, although there is no perfect candidate that meets all of Trump's criteria [3]

总台记者当地时间1月11日获悉，据知情官员透露，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调 查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目的范围向国会撒谎。 该知情官员表示，这项调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明的分析以及对支出记录的审查，并于去年11月获得哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官珍妮娜·皮罗的批 准。皮罗是特朗普的长期盟友，去年被任命为该办公室负责人。 美国总统特朗普去年12月29日说，他预计2026年1月宣布美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的继任人选。鲍威尔将于今年5月结束任期。 自去年1月第二次出任美国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，希望借此提振经济，降低政府借贷成本。因不满美联储未能积极降息，特朗 普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。 来源：央视新闻 △美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔（资料图） ...

来源：环球市场播报 据了解情况的官员透露，美国华盛顿特区检察官办公室已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查内容 涉及美联储翻修其华盛顿总部，以及鲍威尔是否在工程规模问题上向国会撒谎。 据知情官员透露，这项调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明的分析，以及对支出记录的审查，于去年11月得到了 特朗普的长期盟友珍妮·皮罗（Jeanine Pirro）的批准，后者去年被任命为华盛顿特区首席联邦检察官。 目前尚不清楚皮罗是否召集了大陪审团或发出了传票。但据一名了解调查情况的官员说，她办公室的检 察官多次联系鲍威尔的工作人员，要求提供有关装修项目的文件。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 这项调查开启了一条针对鲍威尔的重大新法律战线，特朗普一直在攻击鲍威尔，因为他拒绝特朗普大幅 降息的要求。特朗普曾威胁要解雇鲍威尔，并以"无能"为由，提出了对他提起诉讼的可能性，称这与美 联储总部25亿美元的翻新工程有关。 特朗普上周在接受采访时表示，他已经决定让谁接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席。预计他将很快宣布自己的 决定。特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特是这个最高职位的热门人选。虽然鲍威尔的主席任期将于明 年5月结束，但他的 ...

到目前为止，市场几乎没有显示出明显迹象表明对美联储将完全放弃其独立性感到严重担忧。但投资者 仍在为一个可能充斥着异常分歧、主席权威可能减弱、以及更激进变革威胁挥之不去的美联储做准备。 以下是投资者如何评估美联储可能采取的不同路径： 对市场的威胁 分析师警告称，一个独立性较弱的美联储将对经济和市场构成重大威胁。 尽管美联储控制短期利率，但美国的借贷成本很大程度上受长期美国政府债券收益率的影响。而这些收 益率由投资者对未来短期利率的预期决定，而非当前利率水平。 如果美联储在经济仍处于良好状态时激进降息，对通胀和更高利率的担忧可能推高而非压低收益率和借 贷成本。收益率的急剧上升也可能搅动股市。 来源：金十数据 投资者正在为迎接未来一年一个可能截然不同的美联储做准备。 特朗普已示意，他即将选定下任美联储主席。他还加倍强调了其降息要求，并在最近告诉《华尔街日 报》，他希望新任领导者能支持他的议程。 不仅仅关乎主席一人 迄今为止市场反应相对平淡。原因之一是：从历史上看，美联储主席对拥有12名成员、负责投票决定利 率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）拥有巨大影响力，但他们无权独自设定利率。因此，特朗普若要获 得对央行的明确控 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's ongoing search for candidates to replace current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction as Trump expresses a desire for lower interest rates [2][4]. Group 1: Candidate Profiles - The final candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman position include Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor known for his dovish stance, who has received praise from Trump [3] - Michelle Bowman, the first female vice chair for supervision at the Fed, is also in consideration, although her status remains uncertain [3] - Kevin Hassett, former chief economic advisor, is viewed as an external candidate with strong ties to Trump [3] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor with a market-oriented approach, aligns closely with Trump's vision for lower interest rates [3] Group 2: Political Implications - Some Republican senators have expressed concern over the potential politicization of monetary policy, warning that candidates lacking independence may face tough confirmation hearings [4] - Trump has attempted to alleviate these concerns by stating he seeks candidates who understand the need for lower interest rates, not mere puppets [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the probability of rates falling below 3% by the end of 2025 rising from 38% to 54% [4] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index dropped by 0.6%, and gold prices surged to a historic high of $2,720 per ounce [4] Group 4: Future Challenges - The next Fed chairman will face significant challenges, including persistent inflation, high fiscal deficits, and potential new tariffs from Trump [5] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is highlighted as a critical issue amidst political pressures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairman position could significantly impact investor confidence and market performance, particularly in light of rising valuations and potential economic corrections [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 is projected to finish 2025 with a 16% increase, marking a third consecutive year of outperforming its long-run average of 10% [1]. - Despite a strong performance, there are concerns that the market may be overdue for a correction, especially given the high valuations of many stocks [2][8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May 2026, and there is speculation about his replacement, which could influence market dynamics [4][5]. - President Trump's criticism of Powell and his potential decision to appoint a new chairman who may prioritize aggressive rate cuts could undermine investor confidence [4][6]. Group 3: Inflation and Market Risks - Investors are wary that a new Fed chairman focused on cutting interest rates could lead to increased inflation concerns, prompting a potential market pullback [6][7]. - The S&P 500 experienced a significant decline of over 19% in 2022, largely attributed to inflation, highlighting the risks associated with rising prices [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Given the current high valuations and ongoing economic uncertainties, investors are advised to consider diversifying their portfolios and reducing exposure to high-priced stocks [8][9].

Enjoy your Fed interest rate cut today—it may be the last one for a while. There is a 90% certainty that U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will announce a 0.25% cut to the base rate this afternoon, bringing it down to the 3.5% level, according to speculators on the CME FedWatch Fed funds futures index. But after that, the FedWatch index is indicating no certainty for any further cuts in 2026.Here are what the levels of certainty for keeping the rate at 3.5% look like for 2026, per FedWatch: Januar ...

美国政府高级官员称，凯文·哈塞特仍是5月接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的热门人选。 来源：滚动播报 ...