Core Viewpoint - Recent speculation has increased regarding Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, potentially becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, raising concerns about a possible weakening of the US dollar [1] Group 1: Potential Impact on Monetary Policy - Hassett, a former senior economist at the Federal Reserve, has supported accelerating interest rate cuts, which could bring rate cuts back onto the agenda if he is nominated as Fed Chair [1] - Analysts from Fidelity International suggest that Hassett's nomination would be bearish for the US dollar [1] Group 2: Current Federal Reserve Leadership - Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term is set to end in May 2026, and the White House has stated that any discussions about a new Fed Chair are speculative until a final decision is made [1]

与美联储利率预期密切相关的短期美国国债收益率，起初随着哈塞特在博彩网站上的赔率上升而下跌， 但很快便反弹。 美元和联邦基金利率期货几乎未出现反应，据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具显示，交易员定价12月 降息25个基点的概率为83%。 哈塞特曾担任美联储高级经济学家，被认为与美国总统特朗普政府关系密切，两人均支持更快降息。 富达国际（Fidelity International）战略债券策略首席投资组合经理迈克·里德尔（Mike Riddell）表示， 哈塞特可能被提名为美联储主席，"这让降息再次成为可能，对美元构成利空"。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国债券市场对白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）有望出任下一任美联储主席的前景表现平 静，但表面的平静之下潜藏着一丝隐忧：他偏向降息的立场可能会削弱美元。 在媒体报道后，本周关于哈塞特将在明年5月鲍威尔美联储主席任期结束后接替该职位的押注有所增 加，不过白宫表示，在最终决定出炉前，任何关于新主席的讨论都仍属猜测。 在博彩网站Polymarket上，哈塞特的赔率已上升18个百分点至53%，沃勒以22%位居第二，沃什 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 美国总统特朗普加倍批评美联储主席鲍威尔没有更快降息，他表示："老实说，我很想炒了他。"特朗普 在华盛顿一个由沙特阿拉伯支持的投资论坛上发表讲话，敦促他的财政部长贝森特加快寻找鲍威尔的继 任者。 "你得在他身上下功夫，斯科特。斯科特唯一搞砸的就是美联储，"特朗普在谈到当时正在华盛 顿肯尼迪中心参加活动的贝森特时说。 "利率太高了，斯科特，如果你不尽快解决这个问题，我就炒了 你。" 正在牵头物色美联储新主席人选的贝森特近日称，特朗普将在感恩节后与三位最终候选人会面， 新的人选可能在圣诞节前宣布。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is under scrutiny, with President Trump expressing dissatisfaction with current Chair Jerome Powell and hinting at potential candidates for the position [1][2][3] Group 1: Presidential Remarks - President Trump claims to know his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair but has not disclosed the name [1] - Trump has openly criticized Powell, calling him a "fool" and expressing a desire to replace him immediately, citing interference from others [1] - The current term of Powell as Chair ends in May 2026, but his term as a board member lasts until 2028 [1] Group 2: Candidate Selection Process - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is leading the selection process, with a narrowed list of five candidates including Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder [2] - Trump describes the candidate list as containing both surprising and conventional names, indicating a potential for traditional selection methods [2] - A formal recommendation is expected to be submitted to the President after the Thanksgiving holiday, with the nominee needing Senate approval [2] Group 3: Challenges for the Next Chair - The next Federal Reserve Chair will face dual challenges: pressure from the Trump administration for low interest rates and the need to maintain global market confidence in the Fed's independence [2] - Increased political interference could undermine the credibility of the dollar and lead to volatility in international financial markets [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are critical not only for the U.S. economy but also for global capital flows, exchange rate stability, and emerging market debt risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, acknowledges the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point interest rate cut but criticizes its "stagnant thinking" and calls for a complete reform of the Fed's mechanisms [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Bessent points out that the Federal Reserve has consistently made errors in its inflation and GDP forecasts this year, claiming its analytical models are "essentially obsolete" [1] - He questions the logic behind the Fed's signal that there may not be further rate cuts in December following the recent decision [1] - Powell, the current Fed Chair, indicated that internal policy disagreements and a lack of key economic data due to government shutdowns make further rate cuts unlikely this year [1] Group 2: Leadership Changes at the Federal Reserve - Bessent reveals that the second round of interviews for the next Fed Chair will begin in early December, aiming for a new appointment before Christmas [1] - The current Fed Chair, Powell, has a term ending in May 2026, and the selection process aims to find a leader capable of driving systemic change [1] - Five candidates are currently in the running for the Fed Chair position, including Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Reed [2] Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - Analysts suggest that a swift change in the Fed Chair could have significant implications for the monetary policy trajectory and global financial market expectations through 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trump expressed relief that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will soon be leaving his position, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] Group 1 - Trump's comments suggest a critical view of Powell's leadership at the Federal Reserve, which may influence market sentiment and investor confidence [1] - The statement reflects ongoing political discourse surrounding the Federal Reserve's role in economic management and interest rate decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is supported by industrial demand and deficit outlook, while both gold and silver are experiencing narrow fluctuations with low volatility due to varying macroeconomic backgrounds and summer liquidity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold has increased by 26% and silver by 30% year-to-date, but both lack clear catalysts for breaking higher price levels [1] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's stance, especially with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, amidst slowing economic growth [1] - Gold prices have been hovering around $3,350, supported by stable investment demand and a 25-month high in gold ETF holdings at 2,882 tons [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - Global gold ETFs saw a record inflow of 259 tons in the first seven months of the year, the largest since 2020, while demand for gold bars and coins remains strong [2] - Central banks are expected to increase foreign reserves by over 1,000 tons for the fourth consecutive year, providing a solid foundation to mitigate downside risks [2] - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow by about 3% this year, driven by electrification and solar energy, despite manufacturers reducing silver load per battery [2] Group 3: Speculative Positions - Speculative positions in the COMEX futures market for silver are currently at 22 million ounces, significantly lower than last year's peak of 31 million ounces, indicating a lack of confidence [2] - The net position for silver speculators is currently at 208 million ounces, down from the June peak of 332 million ounces, highlighting potential for accumulation if technical outlook improves [2] Group 4: Future Catalysts - The market is focused on identifying potential catalysts for upward movement, particularly in silver, where unexpected policy support from China or a surge in solar installations could highlight structural deficits [4] - Any pullback in the recently strengthened dollar index could serve as a release valve for gold and silver prices [4] - ETF fund flows and speculative position data are crucial indicators of market confidence changes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is preparing a candidate list for potential successors to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and another upcoming vacancy on the Board of Governors, with an announcement expected by the end of the year [2]. Group 1 - The Treasury Secretary mentioned that there will be two vacancies to fill, and he is compiling a strong candidate list for the President and the Chief of Staff to review [2]. - Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman will end in May next year, amidst ongoing pressure from President Trump for significant interest rate cuts [2]. - Trump has criticized Powell, claiming he is unfit for the role and has caused substantial financial losses for the country [2]. Group 2 - The current market candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current NEC Director Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Becerra, former World Bank President David Malpass, and current Fed Governor Waller [3].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with significant attention on potential candidates amid President Trump's criticism of current Chairman Jerome Powell [3][4]. Group 1: Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has started, emphasizing that there are many qualified candidates [4]. - Mnuchin indicated that the decision will be driven by President Trump, who is expected to move at his own pace [4]. - Speculation exists that Powell may completely exit the Federal Reserve system upon leaving his position to avoid any influence on the new Chairman [4]. Group 2: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is emerging as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with Trump considering candidates who align more closely with his views [8][9]. - Hassett has a close relationship with Trump and has served as an economic advisor, which may enhance his candidacy [8]. - Other candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, Treasury Secretary Scott Mnuchin, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, each with their own connections and qualifications [10][11]. Group 3: Economic Context - President Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Powell, advocating for interest rates to be below 1%, which would require a reduction of over 300 basis points from the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50% [7]. - Analysts suggest that such low interest rates could signal a response to a severely troubled economy, raising concerns about the implications for economic health [7].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump considers Bessent as a potential candidate to succeed the Federal Reserve Chair, while expressing satisfaction with Bessent's performance as Secretary of the Treasury [1] Group 1 - Bessent is identified as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position [1] - Trump's approval of Bessent's work as Treasury Secretary indicates confidence in his capabilities [1]