美国上午时段公布三项就业市场数据之后，国债收益率在每个数据之后都下跌，互换合约体现的美联储 年底前降息幅度扩大；收盘时隐含的年底前降息幅度为55个基点左右，周三收盘时为49个基点。 长端互换利差延续近期的收窄走势，有迹象显示利差扩大仓位仍在持续去杠杆。30年期利差降至12月中 旬以来的最低水平。 美东时间下午3：11 美国国债收盘走高，曲线短端和中部债券领涨。上午时段公布的三项劳动力市场指标弱于预期，包括 Challenger裁员数据、每周初请失业金人数和JOLTS职位空缺数，推动国债在上午时段上涨。受英国央 行鸽派政策声明的提振，短期英国国债走强，此外美国股市遭遇全面抛售，也都给美债带来支持。远端 互换利差进一步收窄。 纽约时间下午3点刚过不久，2至5年期国债收益率当日至少下降8个基点，2s5s30s利差下跌约3个基点。 10年期国债收益率接近4.21%，当日下跌超过7个基点。 英国央行维持利率不变，但投票结果为5比4，且央行表示利率"可能进一步下调"，受此影响英国国债收 益率曲线陡化，利率互换出现鸽派重新定价。 美国国债收盘走高，曲线短端和中部债券领涨。上午时段公布的三项劳动力市场指标弱于预期，包括 Ch ...

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, a choice perceived as relatively hawkish by the market, leading to a narrowing of the dollar's gains and a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's confirmation of Warsh's nomination, the Bloomberg Dollar Index's gain was reduced to 0.2%, while U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 2-year yield slightly declining and the 30-year yield increasing by 3 basis points [1][4]. - The probability of Warsh becoming the Federal Reserve Chairman has surpassed 90%, as indicated by betting markets, particularly after the decline in support for BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [2][5]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Stance - Warsh is viewed as a long-time inflation hawk, having previously emphasized the risks of rising prices during the financial crisis, but he has recently advocated for lower borrowing costs, aligning with Trump's stance, which raises questions about his future policy direction [1][4]. - Analysts suggest that despite Warsh's hawkish reputation, he may seek to justify a more dovish policy stance, with futures markets still pricing in two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year [2][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - Warsh has consistently opposed maintaining a large Federal Reserve balance sheet, which is currently at $6.6 trillion, raising concerns about how he would manage this asset size and whether the Fed should continue purchasing short-term Treasuries or withdraw more market liquidity [6][8]. - The market is particularly focused on how Warsh's nomination might influence the Fed's approach to its balance sheet and overall monetary policy, especially in light of the current fiscal challenges and political pressures on the central bank [8]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The market is experiencing anxiety over the unpredictability of U.S. policy-making, significant fiscal deficits, and political interference in central bank policies, making Warsh's traditionalist approach a timely signal for investors [7][8]. - The recent trend of dollar depreciation, driven by bets on long-term declines in purchasing power, has led to the Bloomberg Dollar Index hitting a near four-year low, with Warsh's nomination potentially serving as a catalyst for a rebound in the dollar [8][9].

智通财经1月28日讯（编辑 潇湘）随着贝莱德首席投资官里克·里德尔有望接替鲍威尔的预期日益高涨， 部分期货和期权市场交易员正加码押注美联储将转向鸽派政策。 数据显示，自上周五以来，随着原本胜算几近于零的里德尔在博彩预测市场中一跃成为美联储下任主席 的头号热门人选，与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)及美联储政策基准利率——联邦基金利率挂钩的利率 期货市场正涌入大量资金。 周一公布的联邦基金期货和SOFR期货未平仓合约数据显示，市场对新交易的兴趣日益浓厚，这些交易 有望从比当前定价更激进的降息路径中获益。显著的资金流包括7月-8月一个月期联邦基金期货价差以 及6月-12月六个月期SOFR 价差所出现的创纪录的成交量。 智通财经上周末曾介绍过，据熟悉白宫决策的人士透露，贝莱德高管里克·里德尔在华尔街的资历以及 对美联储改革持开放态度的立场，正增强了他获得这一联储最高职位的筹码。知情人士透露，这位贝莱 德高管不仅具备央行行长的形象气质，其提出的诸多美联储改革构想也吸引了特朗普总统的关注。 这些要求匿名讨论内部对话的人士表示，里德尔的另一优势在于他从未在美联储任职——这与另外几位 最终候选人不同——因此被视为不受该机构束 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, with expectations for two additional rate cuts next year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a cautious stance regarding further rate cuts, which could impact the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1] - Any signals from Chairman Powell indicating a more dovish policy path could exert downward pressure on the dollar and long-term yields [1]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term steel price may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [1] - The change of the Fed's top management is an important factor determining the future trend of precious metals. Gold may fluctuate more in the short term and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [3] - The market sentiment of coking coal has gradually turned weak, but there is some resistance to further decline in futures prices [3] - The bond market has re - entered the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw and the capital market [4] - The short - term hog price will be under pressure, and it is recommended to short at an appropriate time [4] - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [5] - The short - term price of soybean meal will remain in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the import news of Brazilian soybeans and the cost support of US soybeans [7] - Silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [7] - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8] - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short on rebounds [9] - Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - Domestic steel market prices are mainly slightly rising. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities is 3283 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The short - term steel price may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [1] Gold - The Fed's top management may change. If a dovish chairman takes office, it will greatly boost risk appetite. Gold fluctuates more in the short term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] Iron Ore - From November 24th to November 30th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2784.0 tons, a decrease of 155.5 tons compared with the previous period. Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [3] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants is 36.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. The market sentiment has gradually turned weak, but there is some resistance to further decline in futures prices [3] Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2, and the service industry PMI was 52.1. The bond market has re - entered the oscillation range [4] Hogs - The national average price of pork in the agricultural product wholesale market on December 3rd was 17.74 yuan/kg, up 0.9% from the previous day. The short - term hog price will be under pressure [4] Palm Oil - As of December 3rd, the domestic spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in some regions has changed. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and attention should be paid to the callback risk [5] Soybean Meal - On December 3rd, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were stable with an upward trend. The short - term price will remain in an oscillating pattern, and it is expected to oscillate between 2980 - 3100 yuan/ton [7] Silver - The ADP employment data in the US in November showed a significant decline, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased. Silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the support level is at 2090 yuan/ton [8] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1260 yuan/ton, with stable prices recently. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the pressure level is at 1170 yuan/ton [9] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6867 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the support level is at 6750 yuan/ton [10] Copper - Vale and Glencore are considering establishing a joint venture to develop a copper mine project. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and economic data on precious metals [1][2][3] Market Trends - As of December 2, gold is trading at $4225.25 per ounce, having reached a six-week high of $4264 on December 1, while silver hit a record high of $58.82 per ounce [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key factor supporting precious metal prices, with traders estimating an 87% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [1][2] - The weakening U.S. dollar has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thereby increasing demand [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including the November ADP employment report and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, are anticipated to reinforce rate cut expectations if they show continued weakness [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is viewed as a critical moment for potential policy guidance, with a dovish signal likely to boost gold prices [2] Technical Analysis - Recent price movements indicate a potential reversal, with gold showing signs of weakness after failing to break above key resistance levels [3][5] - The analysis suggests that if gold prices drop below $4200, it could confirm a market top, while a rebound from this level could lead to further testing of highs [5] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on gold around $4225-$4230 with targets set at $4200-$4185, and long positions around $4170-$4175 with targets at $4200-$4210 [6][7] - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management and position sizing to navigate potential market volatility [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data supports the case for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, indicating a more dovish stance moving forward [1] Economic Data - Inflation data has performed better than expected, suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy [1] - Employment market data has shown signs of weakness, further reinforcing the dovish outlook [1] Policy Implications - The combination of favorable inflation data and weakening employment figures should lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish approach rather than a hawkish one [1]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a downturn, with many long-term holders adjusting their asset allocations to diversify and reduce concentrated positions [1] - While diversification is beneficial for market development in the medium to long term, it is putting short-term pressure on prices [1] - The market has not yet reached cyclical highs, and the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman by the end of the year could introduce a more dovish stance, which may stimulate the next round of price increases [1]

Group 1 - Growth stocks in the US have experienced a sell-off, indicating market tension ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [1] - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that small-cap stocks may see significant volatility following Powell's comments on monetary policy, with the Russell 2000 index being a key focus [1] - A dovish speech from Powell could trigger a rebound in small-cap stocks, while a more hawkish stance may lead to short-term declines as the market adjusts its rate cut pricing [1] Group 2 - There is uncertainty regarding whether the US economy is heading towards a recession, with differing opinions from economic experts [2] - Small-cap stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates and refinancing risks, and their performance may be positively impacted by rate cuts if macroeconomic data remains stable [2] - The fate of small-cap companies largely depends on Powell's upcoming speech, highlighting the importance of his comments for market sentiment [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are influenced by market expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve policy, with a strong performance in China's July services PMI contributing to overall risk sentiment [1] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, supported by weak U.S. labor market data and dovish comments from officials [1] - Trade tensions are escalating as U.S. President Trump threatens to raise import tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, which India has dismissed as baseless [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix suggests that gold price movements will depend on the upcoming U.S. July ISM services PMI data, which is expected to rise from 50.8 in June to 51.5 [2] - A strong ISM reading could alleviate dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar and a short-term correction in gold prices [2] - Conversely, a slowdown in service activity may heighten concerns about U.S. economic resilience, weakening the dollar and supporting gold prices [2] Group 3 - Analyst Chad notes that the technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with the RSI above 55 indicating potential buying interest on any dips [3] - A "golden cross" may occur if the 21-day moving average crosses above the 50-day moving average, confirming bullish signals [3] - For gold bulls to maintain momentum, the daily closing price must stay above the rising trend line support at $3,380, with a challenge to the $3,400 level possible [3] Group 4 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias, with resistance levels at $3,381 and $3,396, while support levels are at $3,367 and $3,342 [4] - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% over a three-year period [4] Group 5 - The daily chart for EUR/USD also indicates a bullish direction, with resistance at 1.1590 and support at 1.1558 [5] - The momentum is moderate, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% over a three-year period [5] Group 6 - Key economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone's June retail sales month-on-month data and the U.S. global supply chain pressure index for July, along with EIA crude oil inventory data [5]