格隆汇12月9日｜在美联储政策声明及主席鲍威尔讲话前夕，美元持稳。据LSEG数据，市场预计美联储 周三降息25个基点的概率接近90%，同时预期明年还将有两次降息。近日市场猜测，美联储可能对进一 步降息前景持谨慎态度，任何偏离这一预期的举动都将打压美元和美债收益率。"若鲍威尔释放任何信 号表明委员会倾向于更鸽派的政策路径，都可能对美元和长期收益率构成下行压力，"Tickmill的Joseph Dahrieh在报告中表示。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term steel price may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [1] - The change of the Fed's top management is an important factor determining the future trend of precious metals. Gold may fluctuate more in the short term and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [3] - The market sentiment of coking coal has gradually turned weak, but there is some resistance to further decline in futures prices [3] - The bond market has re - entered the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw and the capital market [4] - The short - term hog price will be under pressure, and it is recommended to short at an appropriate time [4] - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [5] - The short - term price of soybean meal will remain in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the import news of Brazilian soybeans and the cost support of US soybeans [7] - Silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [7] - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8] - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short on rebounds [9] - Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - Domestic steel market prices are mainly slightly rising. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities is 3283 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The short - term steel price may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [1] Gold - The Fed's top management may change. If a dovish chairman takes office, it will greatly boost risk appetite. Gold fluctuates more in the short term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] Iron Ore - From November 24th to November 30th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2784.0 tons, a decrease of 155.5 tons compared with the previous period. Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [3] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants is 36.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. The market sentiment has gradually turned weak, but there is some resistance to further decline in futures prices [3] Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2, and the service industry PMI was 52.1. The bond market has re - entered the oscillation range [4] Hogs - The national average price of pork in the agricultural product wholesale market on December 3rd was 17.74 yuan/kg, up 0.9% from the previous day. The short - term hog price will be under pressure [4] Palm Oil - As of December 3rd, the domestic spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in some regions has changed. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and attention should be paid to the callback risk [5] Soybean Meal - On December 3rd, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were stable with an upward trend. The short - term price will remain in an oscillating pattern, and it is expected to oscillate between 2980 - 3100 yuan/ton [7] Silver - The ADP employment data in the US in November showed a significant decline, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased. Silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the support level is at 2090 yuan/ton [8] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1260 yuan/ton, with stable prices recently. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the pressure level is at 1170 yuan/ton [9] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6867 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the support level is at 6750 yuan/ton [10] Copper - Vale and Glencore are considering establishing a joint venture to develop a copper mine project. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and economic data on precious metals [1][2][3] Market Trends - As of December 2, gold is trading at $4225.25 per ounce, having reached a six-week high of $4264 on December 1, while silver hit a record high of $58.82 per ounce [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key factor supporting precious metal prices, with traders estimating an 87% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [1][2] - The weakening U.S. dollar has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thereby increasing demand [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including the November ADP employment report and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, are anticipated to reinforce rate cut expectations if they show continued weakness [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is viewed as a critical moment for potential policy guidance, with a dovish signal likely to boost gold prices [2] Technical Analysis - Recent price movements indicate a potential reversal, with gold showing signs of weakness after failing to break above key resistance levels [3][5] - The analysis suggests that if gold prices drop below $4200, it could confirm a market top, while a rebound from this level could lead to further testing of highs [5] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on gold around $4225-$4230 with targets set at $4200-$4185, and long positions around $4170-$4175 with targets at $4200-$4210 [6][7] - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management and position sizing to navigate potential market volatility [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data supports the case for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, indicating a more dovish stance moving forward [1] Economic Data - Inflation data has performed better than expected, suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy [1] - Employment market data has shown signs of weakness, further reinforcing the dovish outlook [1] Policy Implications - The combination of favorable inflation data and weakening employment figures should lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish approach rather than a hawkish one [1]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a downturn, with many long-term holders adjusting their asset allocations to diversify and reduce concentrated positions [1] - While diversification is beneficial for market development in the medium to long term, it is putting short-term pressure on prices [1] - The market has not yet reached cyclical highs, and the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman by the end of the year could introduce a more dovish stance, which may stimulate the next round of price increases [1]

Group 1 - Growth stocks in the US have experienced a sell-off, indicating market tension ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole [1] - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that small-cap stocks may see significant volatility following Powell's comments on monetary policy, with the Russell 2000 index being a key focus [1] - A dovish speech from Powell could trigger a rebound in small-cap stocks, while a more hawkish stance may lead to short-term declines as the market adjusts its rate cut pricing [1] Group 2 - There is uncertainty regarding whether the US economy is heading towards a recession, with differing opinions from economic experts [2] - Small-cap stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates and refinancing risks, and their performance may be positively impacted by rate cuts if macroeconomic data remains stable [2] - The fate of small-cap companies largely depends on Powell's upcoming speech, highlighting the importance of his comments for market sentiment [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are influenced by market expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve policy, with a strong performance in China's July services PMI contributing to overall risk sentiment [1] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, supported by weak U.S. labor market data and dovish comments from officials [1] - Trade tensions are escalating as U.S. President Trump threatens to raise import tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, which India has dismissed as baseless [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix suggests that gold price movements will depend on the upcoming U.S. July ISM services PMI data, which is expected to rise from 50.8 in June to 51.5 [2] - A strong ISM reading could alleviate dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar and a short-term correction in gold prices [2] - Conversely, a slowdown in service activity may heighten concerns about U.S. economic resilience, weakening the dollar and supporting gold prices [2] Group 3 - Analyst Chad notes that the technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with the RSI above 55 indicating potential buying interest on any dips [3] - A "golden cross" may occur if the 21-day moving average crosses above the 50-day moving average, confirming bullish signals [3] - For gold bulls to maintain momentum, the daily closing price must stay above the rising trend line support at $3,380, with a challenge to the $3,400 level possible [3] Group 4 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias, with resistance levels at $3,381 and $3,396, while support levels are at $3,367 and $3,342 [4] - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% over a three-year period [4] Group 5 - The daily chart for EUR/USD also indicates a bullish direction, with resistance at 1.1590 and support at 1.1558 [5] - The momentum is moderate, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% over a three-year period [5] Group 6 - Key economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone's June retail sales month-on-month data and the U.S. global supply chain pressure index for July, along with EIA crude oil inventory data [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, disregarding significant pressure from President Trump for a rate cut, which has dampened hopes among investors for a September rate decrease [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's recent policy statement was characterized by a "dovish policy statement + hawkish remarks," leaning overall towards a hawkish stance [2]. - The description of economic growth was changed to "moderate" from "strong," suggesting a potential opening for rate cuts [2]. - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the decision, indicating a split opinion within the board, which is a rare occurrence since 1993 [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that no decisions have been made regarding September and that the Fed is still assessing the impact of Trump's trade policies on inflation, employment, and economic growth [3]. - The recent GDP growth of 3% in Q2 exceeded expectations, complicating the outlook for rate cuts, as it does not provide a clear justification for either a cut or a victory declaration [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations for a September rate cut dropped to 50% from 65% prior to the meeting [6]. - The market reacted with a surge in the dollar, a drop in gold prices, and a decline in U.S. stocks, indicating increased volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on when the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs analysts outlining four scenarios for potential monetary easing and their cross-asset impacts [1][3]. Group 1: Scenarios for Rate Cuts - Scenario 1: If inflation data continues to improve or if the Fed believes tariff impacts are temporary, the 2-year Treasury yield may decrease by 25 basis points, leading to a rise in the stock market and a weakening of the dollar [4]. - Scenario 2: A 50 basis point downward adjustment in U.S. economic growth expectations could drive rate cuts, particularly if labor market and economic activity data worsen [5][6]. - Scenario 3: A combination of dovish policy and negative growth expectations would result in a slight decline in the stock market and a more significant drop in bond yields [8]. - Scenario 4: If the market prices in both dovish policy and a 50 basis point increase in growth expectations, risk assets would perform strongly, with significant stock market gains [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Across all scenarios, a consistent trend of declining yields, a weaker dollar, and rising gold prices is expected, while stock market direction will depend heavily on growth expectations [10]. - The market has begun to price in the Fed's easing, and if data supports this, the trend may continue [11].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's sudden support for a rate cut in July has sparked speculation about his potential candidacy for the position of "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Waller is seen as a dark horse candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position next year, as noted by Nick Timiraos, who is referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve" [1] - Waller's assertion that "inflation is not the most pressing concern at the moment" is viewed as a strategic move, especially as tariff impacts become more apparent [1] - Unlike other potential candidates, Waller has not consistently maintained hawkish rhetoric over the past decade, which aligns well with a president who favors dovish policies [1] Group 2 - Waller does not carry the burden of "two misjudgments on inflation" that the current chair does, which may benefit his candidacy [1]