dbg markets发现美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）近期在货币政策方面抛出了极具冲击力的观点，他坚定地认为美联储在9月召开利率决议会议 之际，必须采取大胆且果断的行动。周三，贝森特言辞恳切地向美联储官员发出呼吁，敦促他们摒弃长期以来秉持的渐进主义策略。他明确提出，美联储在 下月应一次性降息50个基点，并且后续要通过一系列连贯的降息操作，将当前处于4.25%至4.5%区间的借贷成本大幅下调。 然而，贝森特这一激进的降息提议，面临着诸多现实阻碍。从美联储的决策逻辑来看，若没有劳动力市场出现显著恶化的有力证据，如此大幅度的降息举措 很难被付诸实践。毕竟，劳动力市场状况是美联储衡量经济健康程度的关键指标之一，稳定的就业形势意味着经济基本面尚可，此时激进降息可能会引发不 必要的通胀风险。这就导致美联储主席鲍威尔所代表的官方政策立场，与贝森特所传达的政府诉求之间，存在着难以调和的矛盾。 贝森特在周三进一步强调，利率至少应该比当前水平降低1.5个百分点。而美国总统特朗普的态度则更为激进，他公开坚持利率应降至近1%的水平。要知 道，1%的利率水平通常只有在经济陷入深度困境、面临严重衰退风险时才会 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - nickel resource supply cost is increased due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory is decreasing with tight raw materials. The overall refined nickel production increased slightly as some smelters' output rose and new capacity is planned. Stainless steel mills cut production due to profit compression, while new - energy vehicle production and sales climbed but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, nickel prices dropped, downstream buyers made low - price purchases, domestic social inventory decreased, and overseas LME inventory increased. The market is expected to have short - term volatile adjustments, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel was 121,070 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai nickel was - 280 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month nickel price was 15,055 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel was 86,052 lots, down 4,491 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel was - 22,809 lots, down 1,023 lots; LME nickel inventory was 211,254 tons, up 2,172 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, up 299 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel was 20,789 tons, down 134 tons [2]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 122,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River was 122,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,030 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 205.64 dollars/ton, down 4.9 dollars [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 4.3466 million tons, up 419,400 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 9.9436 million tons, up 64,900 tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production was 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production was 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 1.0414 million tons, up 193,200 tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons [2]. 6. Industry News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, may choose the chairman through the vacancy, and will announce drug and chip tariffs and significantly increase Indian tariffs within a week. The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The US 7 - month ISM services PMI was only 50.1, with the employment index shrinking and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Goldman Sachs and Citi said that if the non - agricultural situation does not worsen, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with the interest - rate end - point at 3% or lower. The central bank and six other departments will support new - type industrialization with finance and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and higher sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits have improved, leading to increased production. However, the market is in a demand - off season, with weak downstream demand. The domestic social inventory is increasing, and the spot premium is falling. Technically, the position is decreasing, and the price is adjusting. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,380 yuan/ton, with a 0 change. The 08 - 09 month contract spread is - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,750 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 202,046 lots, a decrease of 3,569 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 3,416 lots, an increase of 118 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, a decrease of 14,807 tons. The SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, an increase of 2,305 tons, and the LME inventory is 92,275 tons, a decrease of 4,725 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 13.16 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.29 dollars/ton. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS shows a monthly zinc supply - demand balance of - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons. ILZSG shows a monthly zinc supply - demand balance of - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - ILZSG's global zinc ore production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. Refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - The social inventory of zinc is 87,300 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters, and the completed housing area is 225.6661 million square meters, an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, an increase of 166,600 vehicles, and the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.56%, a decrease of 0.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.56%, a decrease of 0.43%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, a decrease of 0.19%. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, a decrease of 0.47% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, may choose the Fed chair through vacant governor positions, and will announce tariffs on drugs and chips within a week, and significantly increase tariffs on India. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. - Seven departments including the central bank will support new - style industrialization with finance and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The actual tin ore output from Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. In July, the increase in smelting output was due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, after the end of the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has decreased. The electronics industry has entered the off - season, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream enterprises are still in the traditional consumption off - season, with overall orders being rather dull. The recent high prices have suppressed the restocking sentiment of downstream enterprises. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased slightly. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious. Attention should be paid to the battle around the M60 line. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 266,940 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,300 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts for Shanghai tin is - 470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The main contract position for Shanghai tin is 24,719 lots, down 1,669 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is 193 lots, up 184 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,875 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 485 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,358 tons, up 75 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,820 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 660 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 42 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. Industry News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, may choose the chairman through the vacancy of governors, and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India. The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The ISM services PMI is close to the low point in May and the lowest level since June 2024. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that if the non - farm data deteriorates further, the Fed may cut interest rates aggressively by 50 basis points in September, with the terminal interest rate at 3% or lower. The central bank and other seven departments will provide financial support for new industrialization and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of new tariffs by President Trump has intensified concerns over the trade war, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, which briefly surpassed the $3340 mark, with expectations of further upward movement towards $3350 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's recent tariff measures include a 50% tariff on copper imports from all countries except Canada and similar tariffs on Brazilian goods, alongside hints of a potential 15%-20% general tariff, prompting a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [3]. - Despite the rise in gold prices, two factors are limiting its growth: a 0.3% short-term increase in the US dollar index, which is expected to rise by 0.8% weekly, and unexpectedly strong US employment data, which has reduced market expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices hovering near the middle band, indicating strong bullish momentum. The $3350 level is a key resistance, while $3280 serves as critical support [4]. - The 4-hour chart shows a flat Bollinger Band, with gold prices currently below the upper band. The MACD indicator is in a bullish crossover, and the RSI indicates a strong demand for a rebound, with attention on the support at $3280 and resistance at $3350 [4]. - The 1-hour chart indicates an expanding Bollinger Band, reflecting significant short-term volatility. The MACD is in a bullish crossover, and the RSI shows strong momentum, with support at $3280 and resistance at $3350 [5].