韩国金融监督院院长Lee Chan-jin在周二的会议上表示，该院将密切关注外汇市场状况以及与海外产品 相关的金融公司的销售行为。 尽管韩国Kospi指数近期有所上涨，但由于对海外资产价值上涨的模糊预期，海外股票投资以及外汇存 款和保险等外汇金融产品的销售仍在增加。 韩国金融监督院院长Lee Chan-jin在周二的会议上表示，该院将密切关注外汇市场状况以及与海外产品 相关的金融公司的销售行为。 尽管韩国Kospi指数近期有所上涨，但由于对海外资产价值上涨的模糊预期，海外股票投资以及外汇存 款和保险等外汇金融产品的销售仍在增加。 他警告外汇波动可能造成损失，并指示金融监督院官员引导金融机构避免过度营销和促销活动。 责任编辑：李肇孚 他警告外汇波动可能造成损失，并指示金融监督院官员引导金融机构避免过度营销和促销活动。 责任编辑：李肇孚 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market carry trades are expected to remain effective through 2026, driven by low borrowing costs from central banks in developed economies and sustained interest rate differentials between developed and emerging markets [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Market Carry Trades - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a year-to-date return of 16.71%, the highest since 2009, when it reached 19.89% [3]. - In the previous five years, four years recorded negative returns, with rates of -2.84%, -5.02%, -0.52%, and -3.17% for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively [3]. - High benchmark interest rates in countries like Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa have resulted in three-month implied yields of 13.4%, 7.5%, and 6.6%, significantly outperforming developed economies [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is seen as a key factor for the continued strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy [4]. - Investment firms like Invesco and Goldman Sachs recommend increasing short positions on the U.S. dollar against currencies such as the Brazilian real and South African rand [4]. - Neuberger Berman highlights that reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market and a weak dollar create favorable conditions for emerging market carry trades [5][6]. Group 3: Volatility Concerns - There is ongoing debate about whether low foreign exchange volatility can be maintained, as adverse currency movements could quickly erase gains [7]. - Current indicators from JPMorgan show emerging market currency volatility is near a five-year low, but concerns remain about potential increases due to factors like U.S. midterm elections and Federal Reserve policy divergences [7]. - Vanguard Group believes that market disruptions from events like Trump's tariff policies are diminishing, suggesting a stable environment for emerging market currencies in 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the weak yen is driving up import prices, contributing to the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations on prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly declined, and upcoming employment data releases may increase short-term forex volatility, particularly before the December Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Analysts from Danske Bank, specifically Jesper Fjarstedt, indicate that multiple employment reports prior to the December Federal Reserve meeting could lead to significant market fluctuations [1] - If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain interest rates in December, the US dollar is expected to strengthen by the end of the year [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $34.1 million for Q2 2025 and $61.4 million for the first half of the year, resulting in an annualized return on average equity of 20.8% for Q2 and 18.6% for the first half [6][31] - Book value per share increased by 3.4% to $15.36 in the first half of the year, with a total of $77 million returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [7][31] - Gross premiums for Q2 2025 were just under $190 million, reflecting a decrease of 8.7%, while for the first six months, gross premiums were up almost 2% to around $395 million [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the short tail segment, gross premiums decreased by 8.5% for Q2 and 4.2% for the first half, with underwriting income up almost 21% in Q2 due to lower losses compared to the previous year [21][22] - The reinsurance segment saw flat gross premiums compared to Q2 last year, but a growth of about 33% for the first half, driven by strong renewals and new business [22][23] - The long tail segment faced challenges, with gross premiums down almost 12% in Q2 and 5% in the first half, resulting in an underwriting loss of $3 million for Q2 [26][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted competitive pressures in various areas of its portfolio, particularly in the long tail segment, which is most affected by foreign currency movements [10][11] - The underwriting portfolio is diversified geographically, with about half transacted in non-U.S. Dollar currencies, impacting the revaluation of loss reserves [12][14] - The overall market conditions remain generally healthy, but certain areas are experiencing increased competition, particularly in property and energy lines [32][38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on cycle management, moving capital to areas with strong rate momentum and high margins while reducing exposure in less profitable areas [7][10] - There is a commitment to not sacrifice bottom-line profitability for top-line growth, emphasizing sustainable value generation for the long term [36][43] - The company is expanding its capabilities in specific markets while maintaining a cautious approach to underwriting in competitive segments [37][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating headwinds and highlighted the importance of a diversified strategy to manage cyclicality and volatility [42][43] - The outlook for the remainder of 2025 includes continued contraction in certain areas of the portfolio where profitability does not meet targets [32][34] - Management remains optimistic about finding profitable opportunities across various lines despite competitive pressures [32][39] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 1.34 million shares at an average price of $23.28 during Q2, with approximately 800,000 shares remaining on the repurchase authorization [31] - Total assets increased by over 4% to about $2.1 billion, with total investments and cash at $1.3 billion [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Net to gross retention on a written premium basis was 64% in the quarter, down from 73% year over year. Can you speak to that? - Management indicated that the decrease was primarily due to opportunistic buying of facultative reinsurance in a softer market, aiming to generate higher fee income [46][47] Question: Regarding the professional indemnity portfolio that will be non-renewed, what was the session level a couple of years ago versus now? - Management noted that the quota share has hovered between 60% to 85% over the years, with the intent of non-renewal aimed at improving overall profitability [48][49]

Core Insights - European companies are experiencing unprecedented concerns regarding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, with worries reaching the highest level in four years [1] - The strong performance of the euro in 2025 is eroding profit expectations for these companies [1] - The mention of "currency headwinds" in earnings reports and conference calls among companies listed in the STOXX Europe 600 index has surged to the highest level since Q1 2021 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu agrees with the U.S. perspective that rapid foreign exchange fluctuations can harm the economy [1] - He also concurs with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen that exchange rates should be determined by the market [1] - The Japanese government will review the market and adjust bond issuance plans as necessary [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Impact - Rapid foreign exchange fluctuations are viewed as detrimental to the economy by Japan's Finance Minister [1] Market Dynamics - The exchange rate is affirmed to be a market-determined factor, aligning with U.S. views [1] Government Actions - Japan will assess market conditions and may modify its bond issuance strategy accordingly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand is preparing to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb currency fluctuations [1] Group 1 - The central bank's intervention aims to stabilize the Thai baht amid increasing volatility [1] - Recent market conditions have led to significant fluctuations in the value of the baht, prompting the need for action [1] - The Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring the situation and is ready to implement measures as necessary [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that excessive foreign exchange volatility can harm the economy, emphasizing that exchange rates should be determined by the market [1] Group 1 - The Finance Minister highlighted the negative impact of excessive foreign exchange fluctuations on the economy [1] - Kato Katsunobu reiterated the importance of allowing market forces to dictate exchange rate levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in commodity prices, if permanent, may offset the negative impact of recent foreign exchange fluctuations on inflation [1] Group 1 - The Turkish central bank governor highlighted the potential benefits of stable commodity prices on inflation management [1]