W 华尔街见闻 见闻财经日历 WSCN Economic Calendar | 时间 | | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9月29日 周一 | | | | | | 数据 | | 元 | | | | 事件 | 待定 | 韩国9月29日起对中国团队游客实行临时免签政策 | | | | 9月30日 周二 | | | | | | 数据 | 09:30 | 中国 9月官方制造业PMI | | 49.4 | | 09:45 | | 中国 9月RatingDog制造业PMI | | 50.5 | | 事件 | 待定 | 美国政府联邦资金耗尽，参议院复会: 审议临时支 出议案 | | | | 13:30 | | 澳洲联储主席布洛克召开货币政策新闻发布会 | | | | 10月1日 周三 | | | | | | 17:00 | | 欧元区 9月调和CPI同比初值 | | 2% | | 数据 | 20:15 | 美国 9月ADP就业人数变动(万人) | 5 | 5.4 | | 22:00 | | 美国 9月ISM制造业指数 | 49.2 | 48.7 | | ...

Core Points - In August, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly to 49.4%, indicating a small recovery from July's decline, reflecting the initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and reducing competition pressure [1][2] - The production index and new orders index both showed improvements, with the production index rising to 50.8%, remaining above the critical 50% mark for four consecutive months [1][4] - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index increased to 53.3%, indicating rising costs for manufacturers, which may pressure profit margins [2][3] Economic Indicators - The new orders index rose to 49.5%, while the production index increased by 0.3 percentage points, suggesting a stabilization in market demand and supply [1][2] - The export orders index improved slightly to 47.2%, indicating resilience in external demand despite previous challenges [2] - The manufacturing production activity expectation index rose to 53.7%, reflecting increased optimism among manufacturers regarding future market conditions [3][4] Policy and Market Outlook - The government is focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand and investment, particularly in the context of ongoing economic recovery challenges [4] - Analysts predict that as policy effects continue to materialize and with the upcoming peak production season, various economic indicators are expected to improve further [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The HC2510 contract opened lower and moved lower on Thursday. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the economic data has weakened, coupled with the slump in furnace materials, causing hot-rolled coils to fall under pressure. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the position volume was down 139,278 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 102,930 hands, up 1,876 hands. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,460 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,380 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 640.00 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.78%, down 0.14%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 322.79 million tons, up 5.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 82.46%, up 1.35%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 79.30 million tons, up 1.30 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 268.65 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; the steel net export volume was 921.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The automobile output was 279.41 million vehicles, up 14.56 million vehicles; the automobile sales volume was 290.45 million vehicles, up 21.81 million vehicles. The air - conditioner output was 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; the household refrigerator output was 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units; the household washing machine output was 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.445 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in July last year, and a 19% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.346 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in China's manufacturing PMI in July, the overall economic output remains in the expansion zone, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first decline in four months [1][2]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both still indicating expansion despite slight declines [1]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, including the traditional off-peak season during the flood season and high temperatures [1][2]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - In July, the new orders index for manufacturing fell into the contraction zone, primarily due to short-term factors such as extreme weather conditions [3]. - The new export orders index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, reflecting weakened overall demand due to various factors including previous over-exporting and tariff uncertainties [3]. - Despite weak demand, the production index remains in the expansion zone, indicating resilience in manufacturing activity [3]. Price Trends - The purchasing price index and the factory price index increased to 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, with the purchasing price index rising above the critical point for the first time since March [3]. - The recent "anti-involution" policies are believed to have positively influenced price recovery, although they may cause temporary production slowdowns [4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI, while showing a decline, remain in the expansion zone, indicating ongoing structural optimization and high-quality development [4]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises saw a decline to 46.4% [5]. Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises despite overall PMI weakness [5]. - The "anti-involution" actions are expected to positively impact business expectations, although the sustainability of these effects depends on demand recovery [5]. Economic Outlook - The central government emphasizes the need for stable and flexible policies to support economic growth, aiming for a 5.0% growth target for the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in May indicates a positive shift in the macroeconomic environment, supported by favorable trade talks and domestic economic policies [1][2]. Economic Indicators - In May, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking one of the highest rebounds in the past year [1]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone [2]. - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall economic expansion [2]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - Key sub-indices such as production, new orders, and export orders showed improvements, with production index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points [3]. - New orders index reached 49.8%, up by 0.6 percentage points, nearing the expansion threshold [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [3]. Price Trends - Both purchasing price index and factory price index saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, but the rate of decline has narrowed, indicating a stabilization trend [3]. - The stabilization of prices is crucial for improving industrial profit margins, which have been affected by weak producer prices [3]. Market Sentiment - Manufacturing enterprises maintain stable confidence in market development, with the production and business activity expectation index rising to 52.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [4]. - Despite the positive indicators, external uncertainties remain, and the manufacturing PMI has not yet fully returned to the expansion zone, necessitating continued economic policy support [5].