Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China showed a total sales amount of 190.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18.9%, indicating a stable continuation of the downward trend observed in the previous year [5][10]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in January 2026 was 190.5 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, consistent with the decline observed throughout the previous year [5][10]. - The top three companies in terms of total sales were Poly Developments (15.6 billion yuan), China Overseas Land & Investment (14.47 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (11.65 billion yuan) [5][10]. - The average sales amount for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, while the average for companies ranked 11-30 was 2.6 billion yuan, down 25.6% [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in sales is attributed to a high base from January of the previous year, where core city markets were notably active [5][9]. - The new entrant, China Travel Investment, ranked 5th with a sales amount of 9.28 billion yuan, marking a significant rise from previous years [9]. - The sales performance of the top 10 companies remained relatively stable, with three companies showing year-on-year increases, while seven experienced declines [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that as the Chinese New Year approaches, real estate companies may increase marketing efforts, which could lead to a temporary boost in market activity [11]. - There is a need for coordinated policy efforts from both demand and supply sides to effectively restore market confidence [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The cost and demand are in a game, and steel prices will fluctuate widely [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Fundamental Analysis - **Macro Environment**: The central economic work conference mentioned "anti-involution" again. The special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations, and the overall macro environment is warm [5][8] - **Black Industry Chain**: Iron water production is expected to stop falling and then fluctuate upwards. Attention should be paid to hot-rolled coil inventory. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the steel prices to fluctuate widely. Technically, the black chain index, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and coke contracts face the pressure of previous highs, and chasing up may need to wait for the price to break through [5][9][11] Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still low. The traditional off-season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is healthy. The long and short process supply and inventory information is also provided [24][26] - **Production Profit**: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [29] Hot-rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [34] - **Demand**: Demand is flat. It is in the traditional off-season, and demand is falling. However, exports remain at a high level through price-for-volume strategy [39][40] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot-rolled coil inventory is high, and production is cut to reduce inventory. The production is maintained at a low level [45][46] - **Production Profit**: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [48] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold-rolled coil, hot-rolled coil, and medium-thick plate [58][59][61][62][64] Cold-rolled Coil and Medium-thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plate [65][66]

Report Information - Report Title: "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] - Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Date: January 18, 2026 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of ribbed bars and hot-rolled coils are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the rise should wait until the prices break through [3][5] 3. Summary Based on Directory Macro and Fundamental Analysis - **Macro Environment**: Domestic macro environment is generally positive. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti-involution", and an article in Qiushi Journal aimed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [5][8] - **Black Industry Chain**: Coking coal supply is facing tightening disturbances, and coal and coke prices are strong. Iron ore prices are fluctuating at high levels due to the expected resumption of hot metal production and steel mills' winter storage replenishment. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but costs support the rebound of the futures price. Steel mills' profits continue to be compressed [5] - **Upside Drivers**: The upward breakthrough of black commodities depends on cost-push factors, such as policy constraints on coal supply contraction or sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply end. Relying on steel demand alone cannot form a smooth positive feedback market [5] - **Downside Drivers**: After the resumption of production, the accumulation of steel contradictions may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The release of high inventory liquidity of iron ore may lead to the decline of the spot price leading the futures price [5] Ribbed Bar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of ribbed bars show a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, suitable for reverse arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai ribbed bar spot price was 3300 (+10) yuan/ton, the 05 contract price was 3163 (+19) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was 137 (-9) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -49 (+3) yuan/ton [14][18] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Traditional off - season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is at a healthy level. Long - and short - process supply and inventory data show different trends [24][26] - **Production Profit**: With the expected resumption of steel mills' production and inventory replenishment, the on - screen profit of ribbed bars is shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 165 (+10) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 137 (+34) yuan/ton, and the East China ribbed bar valley - electricity profit was 197 (-15) yuan/ton [28][31] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: Similar to ribbed bars, the basis and spread of hot - rolled coils also show a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, suitable for reverse arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, the 05 contract futures price was 3315 (+21) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was -15 (+9) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -21 (+3) yuan/ton [33][37] - **Demand**: Demand is flat during the traditional off - season. However, exports remain at a high level through price - for - volume strategy [38][39] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively high, and production cuts are needed to reduce inventory. Production is maintained at a low level [46][47] - **Production Profit**: With the expected resumption of steel mills' production and inventory replenishment, the on - screen profit of hot - rolled coils is shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 2 (+30) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 139 (+36) yuan/ton [49][52] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of ribbed bars, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates, including differences between cities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing, and Guangzhou [59][60][62][63][65] Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates [66][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The raw materials are stronger than the finished products, and the steel mill profits continue to be compressed. The iron ore pricing is detached from supply - demand, with strong macro - support. The coal - coke supply - demand is subtly repaired, but contradictions are still accumulating. The ferroalloy market is affected by long - short sentiment, and the futures trading may return to the fundamentals [8][77][136][228]. - The macro - environment is generally favorable. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti - involution", and the special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [10][13]. - For iron ore, although the overseas supply is marginally weakening and the domestic demand is rebounding, the pricing is mainly affected by the upward macro - risk preference, and the ore price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [79]. - For coal - coke, due to event - driven and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure has subtle changes, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating [139]. - For ferroalloys, the alloy prices first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Supply - demand and profit**: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is loose, but the cost supports the futures price rebound. The strong raw materials and weak finished products lead to the continuous compression of steel mill profits. The iron water production is expected to stop falling and then oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil inventory [10][14]. - **Rebar**: The basis and spread of rebar show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The new - house sales remain at a low level, and the market confidence is still sluggish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is healthy. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [21][26][32][37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The basis and spread of hot - rolled coil also show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The demand is flat, and the export order receipt decreases month - on - month. The inventory is high, and production reduction is needed to reduce inventory. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [42][48][49][53][55]. - **Variety spread and regional difference**: Analyzed the price spreads between different steel products (such as cold - hot spread, coil - rebar spread) and regional price differences [59][66]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The overseas iron ore shipments have declined from the high level at the beginning of the year, and there are also disturbances in the acceptance of Jinbuba and the pricing index of Rio Tinto and Fortescue. The supply of non - mainstream mines has some changes, and the domestic mines in the southwest region have significantly increased their production after the New Year [79][90][102]. - **Demand**: The downstream may show a restocking drive before the Spring Festival, and the iron water production has rebounded month - on - month. The substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore is weakening [79][108]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore remains at a high level [112][115]. - **Price performance**: The main 05 - contract price of iron ore is still strong. The medium - grade iron ore prices are strong in the spot market [83][84]. 3.3 Coal - Coke - **Supply**: The domestic coal production has rapidly recovered, and the Mongolian coal imports are expected to decline in January due to the high port inventory [136]. - **Demand**: The iron water production has increased, and the downstream raw material procurement enthusiasm has improved, but the blast furnace resumption rhythm of steel mills still needs to be observed [137]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has increased month - on - month, mainly in independent coking plants and ports [138]. - **Viewpoint**: The coal - coke market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating, and investors are advised to try to go long at low prices [139]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - **Market trend**: The prices of ferroalloys first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. - **Manganese silicon**: The production has decreased slightly month - on - month. The new round of steel procurement is about to start, and the steel mills may start the restocking rhythm. The manganese ore supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the port prices are firm [237][244][261]. - **Silicon iron**: The production has increased month - on - month. The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei has increased month - on - month, and the raw material restocking rhythm may start. The non - steel demand has some changes, and the inventory has increased [274][279][287][289].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The raw materials are stronger than the finished products, and the profit of steel mills continues to be compressed [3] - The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the rebound of the disk price. The strong raw materials and weak finished products lead to the continuous compression of steel mill profits. Technically, the black chain index, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and coke contracts face the pressure of previous highs, and chasing the rise may need to wait for the price to break through [5] - It is expected that the molten iron output will stop falling and then fluctuate and rise, and attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil inventory [9][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel Fundamental Data - **Threaded Steel Basis Spread**: There is a weak reality and strong expectation, and the basis spread is in a reverse spread [14] - **Threaded Steel Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains at a low level. It is the traditional off - season, and demand declines [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is healthy. The supply and inventory of long - and short - process steel are also analyzed [24][26] - **Threaded Steel Production Profit**: With the expectation of steel mill resumption of production and inventory replenishment, the disk profit shrinks [28] 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis Spread**: There is a weak reality and strong expectation, and the basis spread is in a reverse spread [34] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Demand**: The demand is flat, with poor production schedules in the home appliance and automobile industries. The implementation of standards has led to a decrease in export orders on a month - on - month basis [38][39] - **MS Weekly Data**: The hot - rolled coil inventory is high, and production cuts are needed to reduce inventory [41][42] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit**: With the expectation of steel mill resumption of production and inventory replenishment, the disk profit shrinks [43] 3.3 Variety Regional Difference - Analyzes the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coil, hot - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate [52] 3.4 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply - Demand - Inventory Data - Presents the seasonal data of supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate [60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve in Q1 2026, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets [1][18]. - The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index is due to rising geopolitical risks after the US's actions in Venezuela [3][12][13]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued, while the bond market may still face downward pressure after a rapid rise [19][22]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, palm oil may face supply pressure, and copper prices are mainly affected by macro factors [24][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The arrest of the Venezuelan president by the US has increased geopolitical tensions, but the impact on the financial market is expected to be limited. Short - term precious metals may face correction risks [10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US's actions in Venezuela have raised geopolitical risks, causing the US dollar index to strengthen in the short term. The US dollar is expected to rise in the short term [3][12][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US air strike on Venezuela may cause short - term market risk aversion, but the market risk appetite is expected to improve. US stocks are expected to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [15][16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets. The long - position strategy for stock indices should be continued [18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The new fee rate regulations are short - term positive for the bond market, but cannot reverse the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices [2][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In December 2025, Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased, and the inventory may exceed 3 million tons. It is advisable to wait for India's increased purchases and consider going long at low levels [23][24][25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CBOT soybeans declined due to poor export prospects. Domestic soybean crushing is expected to decrease in January. Soybean meal is expected to decline with CBOT soybean futures prices [28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The global sugar market is expected to have a small surplus in 2025/26. The sugar price may be sensitive to weather and production changes. Pay attention to the actual stocking and sales progress [30][32][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton export demand is weak, and the Indian import tariff exemption has expired. The external market is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Be wary of the risk of a decline in Zhengzhou cotton [38][39]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of market contradictions [44][45]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on December 31, 2025. The demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the coal mine's production in January [45][46]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Samarco mine expansion project was suspended. The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the steel mills' raw material replenishment after January [47][48]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro factors have a great impact on copper prices. Fundamentally, short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to buy at low prices [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's supply contraction expectation is being realized. Unilaterally, it is advisable to consider going long at low levels. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There may be short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the medium term [58][59][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon enterprises have raised spot quotes. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels, but investors should hold positions carefully [60][61]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The current production reduction scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern in 2026. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [63][64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand contradictions of tin are alleviated, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the withdrawal of funds [68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fundamental contradictions of lead are marginally alleviated. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach both unilaterally and in terms of arbitrage [69][70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The short - term fundamentals of zinc have no obvious contradictions. Unilaterally, wait for the opportunity to take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [71][72][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The short - term risk premium of crude oil prices may rise moderately, and the long - term supply growth depends on US investment [75][76].