徽酒二哥"压力山大"。 成功跻身"徽酒老二"的 迎驾贡酒 ，却在资本市场"遇冷"。 进入6月份以来，迎驾贡酒的股价一度跌破40元大关，最低报收37.12元/股，创下3年以来的股价新低； 直到6月20日，迎驾贡酒股价才终于迎来久违的大涨。 截至7月8日，迎驾贡酒报收39.58元/股，已连续多日在40元线下徘徊；当前迎驾贡酒的股价今年内累计 跌幅已近23%。这样的股价表现可以说是其上市以来的第二差，仅次于2016年年度下跌34.26%的市场表 现。 图源：百度股市通截图 此前在业绩说明会上，其一季度业绩下滑、股价暴跌等问题遭遇投资者的"拷问"，但公司的回应却被吐 槽"敷衍"。 值得一提的是，曾执着于"百亿目标"的迎驾贡酒，2025年战略转向"行稳致远"，并将净利润增速目标下 调至保守的1%。 2025年是迎驾贡酒上市十周年与建厂七十周年的重要节点，但面对业绩承压、股价低迷的现实困境，这 家区域型酒企将如何破局？ 01.业绩"两连降" 2015年5月，迎驾贡酒登陆上交所主板，成为 白酒 行业第16家上市公司，与 古井贡酒 、 口子窖 和 金 种子酒 并称"徽酒四朵金花"。 近年来，迎驾贡酒走上了高速发展的道路，并超 ...

Group 1 - The leadership of Wang Zhibin at Zhujiang Beer has seen a significant increase in net profit, nearly doubling, but the company's stock price has remained flat and gross margin has fluctuated [1][2] - Zhujiang Beer has missed opportunities for online channel expansion and has not made significant progress in national expansion, leading to a persistent regional limitation [1][2][12] - Wang Zhibin's tenure from 2019 to 2025 coincided with a critical phase of industry high-end transformation, but the execution of strategies for high-end products and market expansion has been less than ideal [5][23] Group 2 - Zhujiang Beer achieved steady revenue growth from 4.244 billion yuan to 5.731 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, but its market expansion has been relatively slow compared to competitors [5][7] - The company's net profit has generally shown an upward trend, with a peak growth rate of 97.68% in 2018, but it has struggled to maintain high growth rates thereafter [5][7] - In 2024, Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue growth of 6.56% and a significant net profit increase of 29.95%, driven mainly by product structure optimization and price increases rather than substantial sales volume growth [7][23] Group 3 - Zhujiang Beer's production capacity expansion has been conservative, with production only increasing by 4,000 tons in 2024, indicating a near saturation in the South China region [9][12] - The company's revenue from regions outside South China has decreased from 5.04% in 2019 to 4.19% in 2024, highlighting systemic challenges in breaking regional limitations [12][14] - Zhujiang Beer relies heavily on traditional offline channels for revenue, with only 1.23% coming from online channels, contrasting sharply with industry trends towards online sales [16][23] Group 4 - The successor to Wang Zhibin, Huang Wensheng, has a deep understanding of the company's strategy but is also nearing retirement age, raising concerns about management stability [18][20] - The salaries of both Wang Zhibin and Huang Wensheng have been significantly reduced, reflecting a potential misalignment between executive compensation and company performance [21][23] - Zhujiang Beer's stock price has remained stagnant between 5 to 12 yuan from 2021 to 2024, with a market capitalization around 20 billion yuan, lagging behind industry leaders [22][23]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.72%, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, which is a 6.15% increase year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 26.532 billion yuan and 9.342 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [1] - Revenue from the domestic market reached 13.500 billion yuan, while the revenue from the external market was 22.374 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [1] - The number of distributors increased significantly, with 835 in the domestic market and 3,718 in the external market, net additions of 15 and 598 respectively compared to the end of 2023 [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix improvements [2] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance were 10.35%, 4.02%, 0.41%, and -0.03% respectively, with slight increases year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 34.00%, up 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2] Growth Potential and Market Strategy - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, and positive growth in Q1 2025, reflecting strong brand equity and growth momentum [3] - The product strategy focuses on enhancing the "Qinghua" series, strengthening mid-tier products, and maintaining the market position of "Guangping" liquor [3] - The company is expanding its market presence, particularly in southern regions, by targeting county-level markets and focusing on core distributors to increase terminal numbers [3] Investment Outlook - Based on the operational performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 13.63 billion yuan, 15.11 billion yuan, and 16.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.4%, 10.8%, and 10.4% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

图片来源：视觉中国-VCG211308670616 虽然头部企业的排名有所变化，比如山西汾酒弯道超车、以360亿元的营收跻身行业前三，但中腰部酒企却在过去一年真正上演了一场激战"卡位战"。前一 年白酒业务达百亿元的顺鑫农业，2024年缩水到70亿元，加入迎驾贡酒与珍酒李渡之间的激战；2023年营收达到70亿元的舍得酒业，在行业深度调整之下采 取主动控量，营收水平下滑，与老白干酒、水井坊成为卡位"50亿元"营收的三大酒企。 当前，行业将继续调整，增长也迎来了换挡期，产品布局高端化、年轻化成为白酒行业的共同趋势。可对于单个酒企特别是区域化更加明显的中腰部酒企来 说，要在激烈的市场竞争中"卡位"成功，恐怕更多是要看全国化布局的成效如何。到底谁能以奇招破题呢？ 每经记者｜熊嘉楠 每经编辑｜彭水萍 随着上市公司2024年度财报披露完毕，白酒上市公司去年整体的业绩表现也浮出水面。总的来说，在行业整体承压之下，大多数白酒股还是交出了稳健增长 的"成绩单"。 Wind数据显示，22家白酒上市公司2024年实现营业收入合计4462.22亿元，归母净利润合计1678.18亿元，8.12%和6.67%的增速则较上一年营收、净利双位 ...

在房地产行业深度调整的当下，当多数房企收缩战线、以去库存为主时，一家民营企业却以"黑马"之姿 逆势突围。在中指研究院近日发布的《2025年1—4月全国房地产企业拿地TOP100排行榜》中，邦泰集 团以124万平方米的拿地面积位列全国第二，成为前10名中仅有的两家民营房企之一。从四川出发到布 局全国11省39城，从区域深耕到全国化扩张，四川邦泰用18年时间走出了一条"稳健与进取并存"的独特 发展路径。 | | | | 2025年1-4月中国房地产企业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 权益拿地金额与面积TOP100 | | | | 排名 | राह नार | 拿地金额 (亿元) | 排名 | राह नार | 拿地面积 (万m4) | | 1 | 绿城中国 | 313 | 1 | 绿城中国 | 139 | | 2 | 中海地产 | 273 | 2 | 邦泰集团 | 124 | | 3 | 滨江集团 | 270 | 3 | 衡南县发展集团 | 122 | | 4 | 建发房产 | 256 | 4 | 保利发展 | 120 | | 5 | 保 ...

新大正（002968） 2024 年报点评：实现全国化布局战略，稳步 提升股东回报 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,127 | 3,387 | 3,655 | 3,907 | 4,110 | | 同比（%） | 20.35 | 8.32 | 7.90 | 6.90 | 5.20 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 160.13 | 113.78 | 122.56 | 133.23 | 143.57 | | 同比（%） | (13.83) | (28.95) | 7.72 | 8.71 | 7.76 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.63 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.81 | 19.43 | 18.04 | 16.59 | 15.40 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing intensified structural differentiation and competition, with a focus on self-transformation and finding new opportunities amidst deep adjustments [1] - In 2024, the production volume of white liquor from 989 large-scale enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue is expected to reach 796.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - The industry is characterized by strong concentration, with leading brands and regions playing a crucial role in market dynamics [1] Industry Overview - The white liquor market is undergoing a reshuffle, with a clear trend of strong concentration and differentiation, leading to fierce competition among top brands [1][15] - Major brands are innovating their marketing strategies and product offerings to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [15][23] Market Dynamics - In key markets like Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong, leading brands dominate the sales landscape, with significant market shares held by top players such as Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - The competitive landscape varies by region, with local brands often struggling against national brands in markets like Henan and Guangdong [4][8][9] Brand Strategies - Wuliangye is focusing on expanding its market presence through innovative product launches and targeted marketing strategies aimed at various consumption scenarios [16] - Moutai is enhancing its brand image through cultural marketing and customer engagement initiatives, aiming to adapt to the evolving consumer landscape [17] - Luzhou Laojiao is implementing a dual-brand strategy to enhance market penetration and consumer experience [18] - Shanxi Fenjiu is emphasizing quality and cultural heritage in its marketing approach to strengthen brand loyalty [19][20] - Yanghe is leveraging cultural events and sponsorships to enhance brand visibility and market share [21] Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to continue evolving, with leading companies focusing on innovation, market expansion, and adapting to consumer preferences [23] - The emphasis on quality, cultural relevance, and consumer engagement will be critical for brands to maintain competitiveness in a rapidly changing market [23]

公司顺利完成第一阶段目标，第二阶段稳步推行中，但考虑外部需求改善仍需时间，我们较前次下调 25/26 年收入预测6%/9%，最终预计25/26 年EPS11.15/12.60（较前次-7%/-11%），引入27 年EPS 14.21 元；参考可比公司25 年平均19xPE 均值（Wind 一致预期），考虑公司的全国化潜力，给予公司25 年 23xPE，目标价256.45 元（前次240.01 元，对应25 年估值20xPE，前次可比公司25 年平均16xPE），"买 入"。 公司24 年营收360.1 亿（同比+12.8%）, 归母净利122.4 亿（同比+17.3%）；其中24Q4 营收46.5 亿（同 比-10.2%），归母净利8.9 亿（同比-11.3%）；25Q1 营收165.2 亿（同比+7.7%），归母净利66.5 亿（同 比+6.2%）；25Q1业绩基本符合我们此前预期（营收同比+9%、归母净利同比+6%）。24 年公司圆满完 成汾酒复兴计划的第一阶段，25 年是公司汾酒复兴纲领第二阶段，公司定调"稳健"，目标为未来长期 发展打下坚实基础。展望全年，产品端公司将坚持四轮驱动；渠道端优化经销商考核 ...

公司持续推进全国化布局，2024 年经销商总数达 4553 家，较2023 年净增加613 家，其中省外净增加 598 家，渠道网络进一步加密。分渠道来看，2024 年经销/批发/电商实现收入2.33/335.36/21.05 亿元， 同比+19.97%/12.23%/26.22%，公司持续加强经销商优化机制，扩大汾享礼遇模式覆盖范围，实现渠道 精细化管理，增强终端动销积极性。 毛利率&净利率稳中有升，费用投入加大。2024 年公司实现毛利率/净利率76.2%/34%，同比 +0.9/+1.31pct；期间费用率为14.75%，同比+0.66pct，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 10.35%/4.02%/0.41%/-0.03%，同比分别变动0.27/0.25/0.13/0pct。25Q1 实现毛利率/净利率 78.8%/40.23%，同比+1.34/-0.6pct；期间费用率为11.16%，同比+1.55pct，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分 别为9.23%/1.76%/0.21%/-0.03%，同比分别变动1.76/-0.23/0.05/-0.03pct。公司持续培育消费者，积极拓 展海外终端渠道， ...

白酒深度调整期，山西汾酒延续了"汾酒速度"，交出了一份逆势上扬的成绩单。 4月3 0日，山西汾酒披露2 0 2 4年年度报告和2 0 2 5年一季度报。财报显示，2 0 2 4年全年汾酒实 现 营 业 收 入 3 6 0 . 11 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 1 2 . 7 9% ， 稳 居 行 业 前 三 ； 归 属 于 上 市 公 司 股 东 的 净 利 润 1 2 2 . 4 3亿元，同比增长1 7 . 2 9%。 2 0 2 5年一季度也表现不俗，营业收入1 6 5 . 2 2亿元，同比增长7 . 7 2%，净利润6 6 . 4 8亿元，同比 增长6 . 1 5%。 2 0 2 4年的白酒行业，饱受"产能过剩" "价格倒挂" "库存高压"的压力。当多数酒企承受阵痛之 时，山西汾酒营收与净利润双增长的成绩，颇为不易。 穿越周期的韧性背后，是汾酒通过产品结构、市场等维度的坚实筑基，实现高端化及全国化 布局的进一步突围。随着清香型白酒不断攀高，市场持续扩容，在汾酒的带领下，清香大时 代已全面开启。 高端产品成功卡位 玻汾稳固"霸主地位" 在市场持续消化能力不足，营销刺激效果减弱，渠道库存压力增大，产品动销频 ...