装置检修动态:华东一套250万吨PTA装置目前重启中,预计近日出产品,该装置11.17附近停车检修。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据目报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/11/25 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 447. 4 | 447.9 | 0. 50 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA去库存,上周华东220万吨PTA装置延长检修 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1414. 7 | 1425. 1 | 10. 37 | 时间,导致宁波货源供应量下降,现货基差走强,PTA 行情小涨。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4351 | 1. 4378 | 0. 0027 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 82 ...

广州金控期货 商品日报 2025.11.20 1 热力图（当日收盘价涨跌幅—成交量） （来源：广金期货） 来源：广金期货 | 数据来源：Wind，广金期货 | | --- | 2 热力图（当日收盘价涨跌幅—成交额） | 曼金属 | | | 发展时光 | | | | | 19 | | | 深圳市 | | CD | D | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 48 | | 타 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | BUNGH | | MASSE | 1494 CABDY | | | @19 | | | | | | | | 75 | | 11240 | | 2014 | 1114 | 第1章 Add 214-201 | | 083601 | No | | | | | TL | | 152512 | | 41.27% | | 0.13% | -2.07% | THERS' | | 8050 | SC2604 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Gasoline supply contraction leads to an expansion of gasoline profits, indirectly supporting PX prices. Russian crude oil supply has decreased due to sanctions, and the profit expansion of diesel and other products prompts refineries to prioritize the production of gasoline and diesel. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Tight PX supply has widened the spread between PX and naphtha, while PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Although the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" have ended, export demand may improve under the easing of the China - US trade war. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. New device commissions have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price, and the spot tightness caused by low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The China - US trade negotiation has been reached, and the reduction of tariffs may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - INE crude oil price decreased from 461.8 yuan/barrel on November 10, 2025, to 458.8 yuan/barrel on November 11, 2025, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1348.1 yuan/ton to 1313.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.20 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4017 to 1.3941, a decrease of 0.0076 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 828 to 821, a decrease of 7; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 246 to 239, a decrease of 8 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4704 yuan/ton to 4648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4605 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 175.8 yuan/ton to 192.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.8 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 274.8 yuan/ton to 255.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3953 yuan/ton to 3875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (149.62) yuan/ton to (149.81) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 4003 yuan/ton to 3981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.0 yuan/ton [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 88.03%, PTA开工率 remained at 76.31%, MEG开工率 remained at 63.74%, and polyester负荷 remained at 89.70% [2]. c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F increased from 6555 to 6600, an increase of 45.0; POY现金流 increased from 27 to 83, an increase of 56.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 6770 to 6805, an increase of 35.0; FDY现金流 increased from (258) to (212), an increase of 46.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 7840 to 7860, an increase of 20.0; DTY现金流 increased from 112 to 143, an increase of 31.0 [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6415 to 6365, a decrease of 50; 涤短现金流 decreased from 237 to 198, a decrease of 39.0 [2]. - 半光切片 remained at 5595; 切片现金流 increased from (33) to (22), an increase of 11.0 [2]. d. Product Sales - 长丝产销 increased from 50% to 54%, an increase of 4% [2]. - 短纤产销 decreased from 66% to 41%, a decrease of 25% [2]. - 切片产销 decreased from 82% to 51%, a decrease of 31% [2]. e. Device Maintenance An East - China PTA device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily arbitrage data for various futures commodities on September 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of these commodities. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis for power coal on September 26, 2025, was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 25, 24, and 23, and - 96.4 yuan/ton on September 22. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented, along with the price ratios. For example, on September 26, the basis of INE crude oil was 13.13 yuan/ton, and the price ratio was 0.1417 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. For instance, on September 26, the basis of rubber was - 770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2261 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of rebar was 126.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented. On September 26, the basis of copper was 40 yuan/ton [28]. London Market - For LME non - ferrous metals on September 26, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (38.91), and the import profit and loss was (452.74) [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 125 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 33 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the basis of CSI 300 was 25.05 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next - month vs current - month, next - quarter vs current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.0 [50].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The report presents the performance of various commodities during different periods of the Fed's interest rate cuts, including COMEX gold, COMEX silver, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI crude, INE crude, etc., showing the percentage changes of each commodity in different time - frames [1] Group 2: Commodity Performance Summary Precious Metals - COMEX gold had percentage changes ranging from - 11.39% to 36.80% in different Fed interest - rate cut periods, with a 0.28% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - COMEX silver's changes were between - 24.98% and 10.73%, and it had a - 5.72% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Energy - ICE Brent's percentage changes were from - 39.88% to 22.16%, with a - 0.07% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - NYMEX WTI crude's changes were between - 45.66% and 18.86%, and it had a - 5.24% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - INE crude had a 5.38% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Base Metals - LME copper's percentage changes were from - 59.75% to 1.49%, with a 0.31% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - LME aluminum had a - 1.84% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - SHFE aluminum's changes varied, and one of the SHFE aluminum had a 3.96% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Agricultural Products - CBOT soybeans' percentage changes were from - 11.45% to 18.77%, with a - 0.98% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CBOT wheat's changes were between - 29.63% and 17.72%, and it had a - 2.37% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CBOT corn's changes were from - 5.53% to 25.35%, with a - 1.39% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Others - CRB industrial spot's percentage changes were from - 36.13% to 1.06%, with a - 2.14% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CRB composite spot's changes were between - 27.20% and 11.97%, and it had a 0.82% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - Nanhua Commodity Index had a 2.69% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - The report presents the performance of various commodities during different Fed rate - cut periods from 1990 to 2024, showing the percentage changes of each commodity over specific time intervals [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - COMEX Gold: Percentage changes during different periods were - 11.39%, 6.05%, - 0.67%, 36.80%, 16.44%, 3.97%, - 7.74%, 0.28% respectively [1]. - COMEX Silver: Percentage changes were - 9.35%, 6.44%, - 8.01%, 7.60%, - 17.18%, 10.73%, - 24.98%, - 5.72% respectively [1]. Crude Oil - ICE Brent: Percentage changes were 1.98%, - 21.77%, 22.16%, - 39.88%, - 2.54%, - 39.07%, - 0.07% respectively [1]. - NYMEX WTI Crude Oil: Percentage changes were - 19.16%, 2.13%, - 20.03%, 18.86%, - 45.66%, - 0.64%, - 38.43%, - 5.24% respectively [1]. - INE Crude Oil: Percentage changes were 1.45%, - 34.08%, 5.38% respectively [1]. Base Metals - LME Copper: Percentage changes were 1.49%, - 14.66%, - 4.45%, - 2.59%, - 59.75%, - 1.01%, - 6.63%, 0.31% respectively [1]. - LME Aluminum: Percentage changes were - 38.40%, - 1.01%, - 2.72%, - 1.84% respectively [1]. - SHFE Aluminum: Different SHFE Aluminum data showed various percentage changes such as - 16.44%, - 5.34%, - 3.28%, - 62.48%, 1.52%, - 6.80%, - 2.66%, - 18.00%, 7.92%, - 5.72%, - 45.97%, - 0.11%, - 3.46%, 3.96% [1]. Agricultural Products - CBOT Soybean: Percentage changes were 18.77%, 10.38%, 12.28%, - 11.45%, 7.84%, - 8.69%, - 0.98% respectively [1]. - CBOT Wheat: Percentage changes were 17.72%, 4.12%, 12.43%, - 29.63%, 6.04%, - 5.73%, - 2.37% respectively [1]. - CBOT Corn: Percentage changes were - 5.53%, 29.29%, 3.50%, 2.35%, 25.35%, - 3.65%, - 6.44%, - 1.39% respectively [1]. - DCE E -: Percentage changes were 6.11%, - 26.77%, 0.47%, 1.56%, 2.53% respectively [1]. - DCE Corn: Percentage changes were - 11.57%, - 5.64%, 2.99%, - 4.96% respectively [1]. - ICE 11 -号 Sugar: Percentage changes were 16.38%, 12.75%, - 22.09%, 21.33%, 2.47%, - 19.43%, - 6.05% respectively [1]. - ICE 2 -号 Cotton: Percentage changes were 9.77%, - 13.32%, - 17.47%, - 32.04%, 3.37%, - 6.07%, 8.56% respectively [1]. - CZCE White Sugar: Percentage changes were - 22.03%, 6.90%, - 4.04%, - 10.48% respectively [1]. - CZCE Cotton: Percentage changes were - 21.74%, 0.96%, - 8.67%, 0.14% respectively [1]. Other Commodities - SHFE Rebar: Percentage changes were - 12.45%, 3.86%, - 6.86% respectively [1]. - DCE Iron Ore: Percentage changes were - 16.99%, 2.64%, - 12.20% respectively [1]. - SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil: Percentage changes were - 11.37%, 1.42%, - 7.12% respectively [1]. - DCE Polypropylene: Percentage changes were - 4.23%, - 5.35%, 1.41% respectively [1]. - CRB Industrial Spot: Percentage changes were - 7.25%, - 6.54%, - 5.22%, 1.06%, - 36.13%, - 2.09%, - 4.13%, - 2.14% respectively [1]. - CRB Composite Spot: Percentage changes were - 6.81%, - 4.11%, - 6.63%, 11.97%, - 27.20%, - 3.12%, - 4.62%, 0.82% respectively [1]. - Nanhua Commodity Index: Percentage changes were - 36.96%, - 1.20%, - 6.22%, 2.69% respectively [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 11, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][21][27][41][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis of power coal on September 10, 2025, was - 126.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0.0 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous few days [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, the basis on September 10, 2025, was 14.61 yuan/ton; for INE crude oil, the basis was 137.45 yuan/ton. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt on September 4 was 76.04, and it changed in the following days [7]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: On September 10, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 930 yuan/ton, methanol was - 97 yuan/ton, PTA was - 68 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 124 yuan/ton, V was - 132 yuan/ton, and PP was - 48 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 40 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 980 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On September 10, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2384 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 282 yuan/ton, PP - PVC was 2102 yuan/ton, and PP - 3*methanol was - 258 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 46.0 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month spread was - 83.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On September 10, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88, rebar/coke was 1.9413, coke/coking coal was 1.4352, and rebar - hot rolled coil was - 227.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basis**: On September 10, 2025, the basis of rebar was 101.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 7.0 yuan/ton, coke was - 98.0 yuan/ton, and coking coal was 53.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: On September 10, 2025, the basis of copper was - 50 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 50 yuan/ton, zinc was - 115 yuan/ton, lead was - 115 yuan/ton, nickel was 860 yuan/ton, and tin was - 330 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: On September 10, 2025, the LME copper's spread was (56.61), aluminum was 2.92, zinc was 23.01, lead was (44.17), nickel was (182.88), and tin was 27.00. The Shanghai - London ratios were 8.03 for copper, 7.92 for aluminum, 7.74 for zinc, 8.53 for lead, 7.97 for nickel, and 7.89 for tin. The import profit and loss for copper was (161.10) yuan/ton, aluminum was (1267.65) yuan/ton, zinc was (2588.01) yuan/ton, lead was 741.13 yuan/ton, nickel was 702.62 yuan/ton, and tin was (5849.65) yuan/ton [35]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: On September 10, 2025, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 149 yuan/ton, soybeans No.2 was 335.52 yuan/ton, soybean meal was - 36 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 284 yuan/ton, and corn was 103 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 47 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was 104 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On September 10, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.79, soybeans No.2 to corn was 1.69, soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.72, soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 522 yuan/ton, soybean oil - palm oil was - 1018 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1501 yuan/ton, and corn - corn starch was - 292 yuan/ton [42]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On September 10, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 12.96, SSE 50 was 1.79, CSI 500 was 68.71, and CSI 1000 was 79.17 [54]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spread of the next - month minus the current - month for CSI 300 was - 7.4, for SSE 50 was - 0.8, for CSI 500 was - 62.0, and for CSI 1000 was - 64.2. The spread of the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300 was - 21.2, for SSE 50 was 2.6, for CSI 500 was - 153.4, and for CSI 1000 was - 187.6 [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily arbitrage data report for various futures varieties of Baocheng Futures on September 3, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of different commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Power Coal - Basis data from August 27 to September 2, 2025, shows that the basis has been negative and gradually decreasing, from - 108.4 yuan/ton on August 27 to - 117.4 yuan/ton on September 2. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from August 27 to September 2, 2025, along with their ratios are presented. For example, on September 2, the basis of INE crude oil is 21.11 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil/asphalt is 0.1378 [7] - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 2 is - 870 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber is 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are shown. On September 2, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2369 yuan/ton [10] Black Metals - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar is 52.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are provided. On September 2, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 4.04 [19] - **Basis**: Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are given. On September 2, the basis of rebar is 103.0 yuan/ton [20] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are provided. On September 2, the basis of copper is 410 yuan/ton [26][27] - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 2, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (69.58) [35] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are given. On September 2, the basis of soybeans No.1 is 90 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 is 47 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are shown. On September 2, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio is 2.74 [41] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are presented. On September 2, the basis of CSI 300 is 9.25 [53] - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 6.2 [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakening in mid-August will limit its upside, with a short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profits, and to position for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruptions in September on significant price drops [3]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal-to-methanol profits are still high year-on-year. Domestic and overseas production are increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Demand remains weak currently but is expected to improve in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Regarding urea, the news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while demand is average. The price is in a narrow range, and it is recommended to look for long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it is expected to be range-bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. - PVC has high supply, weak demand, and high valuations. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost trend upward [13][16]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term, with high production capacity planned for August. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July, with weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [19]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following crude oil in the peak season [22]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, with limited processing margins. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to enter an inventory accumulation cycle. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude futures fell $0.77, or 1.22%, to $62.51/barrel; Brent crude futures fell $0.51, or 0.77%, to $65.95/barrel; INE crude futures fell 5.70 yuan, or 1.18%, to 476.9 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories increased by 0.39 million barrels to 8.06 million barrels, a 5.14% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 2.28 million barrels, a 1.24% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 7.36 million barrels, a 3.64% decrease; total refined oil inventories increased by 0.14 million barrels to 17.69 million barrels, a 0.82% increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2391 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 111 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic production is bottoming out and rising, and overseas production is at a high level, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract rose 63 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 97 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated downward [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from the previous week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year, with normal domestic and export orders. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from the previous week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year, with weak export orders. As of August 10, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons, or 0.85%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, the inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be range - bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 53 yuan to 5001 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 251 (+ 3) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (- 11) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 (- 1) tons, and social inventory is 81.2 (+ 3.5) tons. The company's comprehensive profit is at a high level, with high production and low downstream demand. The export is under pressure from India's anti - dumping policy, and the valuation support is weakening [11]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply side is increasing production, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The demand side is in the off - season but is showing an upward trend [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects positive policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, with cost support. The spot price fell, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are high, and demand is weak in the off - season. There is a high production capacity plan in August, and the price will be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and the operating rate is expected to rise. Demand is seasonally weak. There is a 45 - ton production capacity plan in August. The price is expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 14 yuan to 6774 yuan, PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 835 dollars, the basis was 94 (+ 6) yuan, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 (+ 12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The load in China is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and in Asia is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices are restarting or reducing production. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 12 yuan to 4734 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 8 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 (- 4) yuan [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices are restarting or shutting down. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Social inventory is 225 tons, down 2.3 tons. Supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and processing margins are limited. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 38 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price rose 17 yuan to 4458 yuan, the basis was 93 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 (+ 6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is 66.4%, down 2%, with some devices restarting or reducing production. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. The import forecast is 5.4 tons, and the port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost side is stable, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken, with downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the harsh realities of the futures market, indicating that a significant majority of participants are unlikely to achieve long-term success, with estimates suggesting that only 0.1% will be profitable over three years and 0.01% over ten years [3][5][8] - In 2024, the domestic futures trading volume reached 619 trillion, with an estimated total fee of around 80 billion, leading to the disappearance of approximately 140,000 medium-sized accounts annually [6][7] - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on commodity investments, particularly how it may reduce demand for industrial metals like silver and copper while benefiting traditional energy sources like crude oil [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the current market dynamics for various commodities, indicating that the futures market is predominantly long for financial indices and certain metals, while short positions dominate in others like paper pulp and pure alkali [12] - It highlights the potential for a rebound in the glass market driven by policy and sentiment, suggesting specific trading strategies for both long positions and hedging [20][21][22] - The discussion on copper emphasizes the tactical implications of tariffs and the need for a realistic understanding of market conditions, suggesting that the current situation is more about short-term volatility rather than long-term direction [15][16]