大宗商品方面，贵金属遭遇重挫。截至北京时间12月30日5:50，伦敦银现跌8.99%，伦敦金现跌4.33%。 当地时间12月29日，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.5%。美国科技七巨头指数跌0.60%，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达 跌超1%。 美股三大股指全线收跌 当地时间12月29日，截至收盘，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.5%。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，美国科技七巨头指数跌0.6%。个股方面，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达跌超1%，亚马逊跌0.19%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4331.668 | 72.200 | 4349.6 | | -200.742 -4.43% | -7.129 -8.99% | -203.1 -4.46% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE白银 | | 71.600 | 975.80 | 17237 | | -5.596 -7.25% | -40.66 -4.00% | -1650 -8.74% | | 能源化工 ビ | | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244. PTA maintains high - level production, and the polyester load stays high due to new device launches. The PTA price is boosted by the overall commodity market sentiment [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Overseas MEG device maintenance plans increase, but with coal prices falling and new devices coming into operation, the supply pressure is large. The price lacks effective support, though it may get support from domestic policies [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 442.7 yuan/barrel on December 25, 2025, to 441.8 yuan/barrel on December 26, 2025, a decrease of 0.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1934.9 yuan/ton to 2069.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 134.54 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC Ratio**: Rose from 1.6014 to 1.6445, an increase of 0.0431 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Increased from 901 to 919, a rise of 18 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Widened from 361 to 377, an increase of 16 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Rose from 5152 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Increased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5175 yuan/ton, a rise of 125 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 281.8 yuan/ton to 278.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Rose from 363.8 yuan/ton to 398.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: Changed from (13) to (65), a decrease of 52 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Decreased from 118,854 to 116,646, a decrease of 2,208 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Rose from 3818 yuan/ton to 3846 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Changed from (147.79) to (141.98), an increase of 5.8 [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Increased from 3653 to 3666, a rise of 13 [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Rose from 0 to 40, an increase of 40 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - **PX Start - up Rate**: Remained at 86.28% [2]. - **PTA Start - up Rate**: Increased from 75.49% to 76.95%, a rise of 1.46% [2]. - **MEG Start - up Rate**: Remained at 61.50% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Increased from 88.65% to 88.94%, a rise of 0.29% [2]. Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - **POY150D/48F**: The price increased from 6440 to 6570, a rise of 130 [2]. - **POY Cash - Flow**: Improved from (352) to (333), an increase of 19 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: The price increased from 6730 to 6810, a rise of 80 [2]. - **FDY Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (562) to (593), a decrease of 31 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: The price increased from 7755 to 7760, a rise of 5 [2]. - **DTY Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (237) to (343), a decrease of 106 [2]. - **Long - Filament Production and Sales**: Increased from 41% to 48%, a rise of 7% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price increased from 6575 to 6690, a rise of 115 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash - Flow**: Improved from 133 to 137, an increase of 4 [2]. - **Staple Fiber Production and Sales**: Increased from 56% to 86%, a rise of 30% [2]. - **Semi - Bright Chip**: The price increased from 5720 to 5780, a rise of 60 [2]. - **Chip Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (172) to (223), a decrease of 51 [2]. - **Chip Production and Sales**: Increased from 49% to 55%, a rise of 6% [2]. Device Maintenance A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Ningbo, which stopped for maintenance in late November, is expected to resume operation on the 24th [2].

·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2024-12 05 05 09 01 01 0d 01 05 0d 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 ·DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2025- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2023- 2023- 01 02 09 01 05 0d 01 05 0a -800 免责声 本报告中的信息均源 ...

当地时间12月15日，特朗普表示，当日他与欧洲领导人进行了"非常好的对话"，许多内容涉及俄乌冲 突，事情"似乎进展顺利"。特朗普指出，现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成实现俄乌和平的"和平协 议"。 高波指出，若达成协议，可能会增加俄罗斯的石油供应。对供应过剩的预期增强拖累了油价。 J.P.Morgan Commodities Research在周六的一份报告中预计，2025年油市供应过剩将持续到2026年和 2027年。 高波表示，总体看，原油市场仍然供应过剩，长期仍然承压，但短期跌至低位，不排除地缘和宏观仍存 反复的可能。 | | | 布伦特原油主连 | | | ST Q | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BRNOW 延时 | | | | | | 59.75 | 最高 60.13 | | 昨结 60.30 | | 量 28205 | | | -0.55 -0.91% | 最低 59.75 | | | 持仓 56.82万 | | | | 日K 分时 | 1分 5分 | | 15分 | 更多』 | 同列 (o) | | | 60.85 | ...

| NYMEX WTI原 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 56.68 | 60.41 | 56.54 | | -0.76 -1.32% -0.71 -1.16% -0.70 -1.22% | | | | INE原油 | | | | 430.2 | 2954 | 4.036 | | -6.9 -1.58% -33 -1.10% -0.077 -1.87% | | | 现货黄金日内一度触及每盎司4350美元上方，现货白银涨超3%，均已逼近历史高位。贵金属大涨接力棒传到了铂、钯，钯金单日大涨超5%，铂价年内近 乎翻倍。 加密货币市场全线大跌，比特币两周来首次跌破8.6万美元，以太坊跌破3000美元关口。截至北京时间16日6:32，全市场近18.9万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额达 6.51亿美元。 美东时间周一，美股高开后跳水，三大指数全线收跌。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 48416.56 | 23057.41 | 6816.51 | | -41.49 -0.09% -137.76 -0.59% -10.90 -0.16% | | | | ...

石油输出国组织（欧佩克）14日发布的最新能源展望指出，应对未来能源需求与挑战需要动用所有形式的能源和相关技术，并需要各 类人群的共同参与。 | | 能源化工 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 消費 | 涨跌幅 | | NYMEX WTI原油 | 57.77d | 0.33 | 0.57% | | ICE布油 | 61.46d | 0.34 | 0.56% | | ICE轻质低硫原油 | 57.55d | 0.31 | 0.54% | | INE原油 | 437.3 | 0.4 | 0.09% | 来源：央视新闻 责编：陈丽湘 报告预计，到2050年，全球能源需求将增长23%。从能源结构看，石油仍将是占比最大的单一能源，份额略低于30%；在2024年至 2050年间，石油与天然气合计占比预计始终保持在50%以上。从区域分布看，全球能源需求增长几乎全部来自发展中国家。与此同 时，发达国家的能源需求总体将保持平稳，或出现下降趋势。 15日，原油期货价格走高。截至发稿，WTI原油报57.77美元/桶，涨幅为0.57%。国内原油期货主力合约报437.3元/桶，由跌转 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/12/9 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/5 | 2025/12/8 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 453. 7 | 457.6 | 3.90 | 成交情况: PTA: 原油反弹动力不足,海宁地区一套12万吨聚酯装 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1380. 9 | 1368. 6 | -12.34 | 置停车检修,萧山地区50万吨聚酯装置临时停车检 | | | | | | | 修,利空PTA需求,PTA行情小跌。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4188 | 1. 4115 | -0. 0073 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 838 | 841 | 3 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 27 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production despite the end of some planned maintenance and capacity recovery, driven by high gasoline profit margins and low pure benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry is performing well and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price, and new device startups are pressuring the price. The coal price increase does not provide strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 447.4 yuan/barrel on November 21, 2025, to 447.9 yuan/barrel on November 24, 2025, with a change of 0.5 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC spread increased from 1414.7 yuan/ton to 1425.1 yuan/ton, with a change of 10.37 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.4351 to 1.4378, with a change of 0.0027 [2]. - CFR China PX price increased from 824 to 826, with a change of 2; PX - naphtha spread increased from 262 to 264, with a change of 2 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4666 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton, with a change of 14 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4615 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 191 yuan/ton to 212 yuan/ton, with a change of 21 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee increased from 257 yuan/ton to 262 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA main contract basis increased from - 63 to - 49, with a change of 14; PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 117,192 to 117,828, with a change of 636 [2]. - MEG main contract futures price increased from 3808 yuan/ton to 3884 yuan/ton, with a change of 76 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from - 151.12 yuan/ton to - 151.31 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price increased from 3852 yuan/ton to 3890 yuan/ton, with a change of 38 yuan/ton; MEG main contract basis decreased from 35 to 33, with a change of - 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 87.39% [2]. - PTA start - up rate remained at 72.11% [2]. - MEG start - up rate increased from 60.14% to 60.33%, with a change of 0.19% [2]. - Polyester load remained at 89.19% [2]. Polyester Product Data - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6580 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, with a change of - 35 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 94 to 33, with a change of - 61 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6825 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from - 161 to - 187, with a change of - 26 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained at 7865 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 179 to 153, with a change of - 26 [2]. - Long - filament sales rate increased from 39% to 43%, with a change of 4% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6340 yuan/ton to 6350 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 204 to 188, with a change of - 16 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber sales rate increased from 31% to 65%, with a change of 34% [2]. - Semi - bright chip price increased from 5540 yuan/ton to 5545 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash flow decreased from - 46 to - 67, with a change of - 21 [2]. - Chip sales rate decreased from 75% to 60%, with a change of - 15% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon, having stopped for maintenance around November 17 [2]

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the performance of various futures contracts across different sectors, highlighting price changes and trends over multiple time frames. Group 1: Financial and Precious Metals - The Shanghai Composite 300 futures decreased by 0.69%, with a year-to-date increase of 19.81% [8] - The SHFE gold futures rose by 0.22%, while the year-to-date increase stands at 48.84% [8] - The SHFE silver futures increased by 0.75%, with a year-to-date increase of 58.85% [8] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals and New Energy Materials - SHFE copper futures rose by 0.19%, with a year-to-date increase of 16.92% [9] - SHFE aluminum futures decreased by 0.05%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.10% [9] - GFEX lithium carbonate futures increased by 0.84%, with a year-to-date increase of 28.12% [9] Group 3: Black Commodities - SHFE rebar futures fell by 1.01%, with a year-to-date decrease of 11.67% [10] - DCE iron ore futures decreased by 0.32%, with a year-to-date increase of 8.21% [10] - DCE coking coal futures dropped by 3.17%, with a year-to-date decrease of 18.57% [10] Group 4: Agricultural Products - DCE soybean meal futures decreased by 0.46%, with a year-to-date increase of 3.83% [11] - CZCE apple futures increased by 1.26%, with a year-to-date increase of 36.24% [11] - DCE live hog futures fell by 1.00%, with a year-to-date decrease of 21.55% [11] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals - INE crude oil futures decreased by 1.66%, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.97% [12] - DCE ethylene glycol futures fell by 2.05%, with a year-to-date decrease of 21.88% [12] - CZCE soda ash futures dropped by 2.93%, with a year-to-date decrease of 26.95% [12]