Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakening in mid-August will limit its upside, with a short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profits, and to position for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruptions in September on significant price drops [3]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal-to-methanol profits are still high year-on-year. Domestic and overseas production are increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Demand remains weak currently but is expected to improve in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Regarding urea, the news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while demand is average. The price is in a narrow range, and it is recommended to look for long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it is expected to be range-bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. - PVC has high supply, weak demand, and high valuations. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost trend upward [13][16]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term, with high production capacity planned for August. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July, with weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [19]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following crude oil in the peak season [22]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, with limited processing margins. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to enter an inventory accumulation cycle. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude futures fell $0.77, or 1.22%, to $62.51/barrel; Brent crude futures fell $0.51, or 0.77%, to $65.95/barrel; INE crude futures fell 5.70 yuan, or 1.18%, to 476.9 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories increased by 0.39 million barrels to 8.06 million barrels, a 5.14% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 2.28 million barrels, a 1.24% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 7.36 million barrels, a 3.64% decrease; total refined oil inventories increased by 0.14 million barrels to 17.69 million barrels, a 0.82% increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2391 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 111 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic production is bottoming out and rising, and overseas production is at a high level, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract rose 63 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 97 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated downward [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from the previous week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year, with normal domestic and export orders. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from the previous week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year, with weak export orders. As of August 10, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons, or 0.85%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, the inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be range - bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 53 yuan to 5001 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 251 (+ 3) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (- 11) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 (- 1) tons, and social inventory is 81.2 (+ 3.5) tons. The company's comprehensive profit is at a high level, with high production and low downstream demand. The export is under pressure from India's anti - dumping policy, and the valuation support is weakening [11]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply side is increasing production, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The demand side is in the off - season but is showing an upward trend [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects positive policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, with cost support. The spot price fell, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are high, and demand is weak in the off - season. There is a high production capacity plan in August, and the price will be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and the operating rate is expected to rise. Demand is seasonally weak. There is a 45 - ton production capacity plan in August. The price is expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 14 yuan to 6774 yuan, PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 835 dollars, the basis was 94 (+ 6) yuan, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 (+ 12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The load in China is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and in Asia is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices are restarting or reducing production. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 12 yuan to 4734 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 8 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 (- 4) yuan [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices are restarting or shutting down. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Social inventory is 225 tons, down 2.3 tons. Supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and processing margins are limited. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 38 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price rose 17 yuan to 4458 yuan, the basis was 93 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 (+ 6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is 66.4%, down 2%, with some devices restarting or reducing production. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. The import forecast is 5.4 tons, and the port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost side is stable, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken, with downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the harsh realities of the futures market, indicating that a significant majority of participants are unlikely to achieve long-term success, with estimates suggesting that only 0.1% will be profitable over three years and 0.01% over ten years [3][5][8] - In 2024, the domestic futures trading volume reached 619 trillion, with an estimated total fee of around 80 billion, leading to the disappearance of approximately 140,000 medium-sized accounts annually [6][7] - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on commodity investments, particularly how it may reduce demand for industrial metals like silver and copper while benefiting traditional energy sources like crude oil [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the current market dynamics for various commodities, indicating that the futures market is predominantly long for financial indices and certain metals, while short positions dominate in others like paper pulp and pure alkali [12] - It highlights the potential for a rebound in the glass market driven by policy and sentiment, suggesting specific trading strategies for both long positions and hedging [20][21][22] - The discussion on copper emphasizes the tactical implications of tariffs and the need for a realistic understanding of market conditions, suggesting that the current situation is more about short-term volatility rather than long-term direction [15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 9, 2025, including base spreads, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][15][23][37][46]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Base Spread**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of power coal was - 175.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared to previous days [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton from July 2 to July 8, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spread of INE crude oil was - 26.99 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1420 [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The base spread data for fuel oil was not fully available on July 8, 2025 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were - 35, 67, 95, 105, and 605 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 870 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the spread of LLDPE - PVC was 2364 yuan/ton, and the spread of LLDPE - PP was 196 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 67.0, 60.8, - 126.1, and - 48.5 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - 1 month spread was 9.0 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 1 month spread was - 20.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.18, and the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.1502 [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 270, 65, - 40, - 130, 1250, and - 600 yuan/ton respectively [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Data**: On July 8, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 51.31, - 0.60, - 9.88, - 23.04, - 207.63, and - 20.00 respectively; the Shanghai - London ratios were 8.08, 7.94, 8.16, 8.40, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and rapeseed meal varied [39]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of palm oil was - 145 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread was 51 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.77, and the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.71 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Base Spreads**: On July 8, 2025, the base spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 39.85, 19.39, 19.74, and 171.90 respectively [47]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For CSI 300, the spread between the next - month and the current - month contract was - 16.8 [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 1, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 185.4 to - 180.4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 24 to June 30, 2025, increased from - 33.99 to - 19.94 yuan/ton; the fuel oil basis data has some blanks; the crude oil/asphalt ratio decreased from 0.1520 to 0.1395 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the natural rubber basis changed from 185 to - 35 yuan/ton. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads are also provided for multiple chemicals [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, as well as inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 30, 2025, are provided [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads for multiple agricultural products are also presented [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for different contracts of these indices are also provided [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the basis, spread, and ratio data of various futures products including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from June 23 to June 27, 2025, aiming to provide data support for investors' arbitrage operations. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from June 23 to June 27, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 192.4 yuan/ton to - 181.4 yuan/ton, while the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 23 to June 27, 2025, increased from - 42.70 yuan/ton to - 21.54 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, the basis on June 26 was 43.90 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt decreased from 0.1520 on June 24 to 0.1411 on June 27 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data of various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., show different trends from June 23 to June 27, 2025. For example, the basis of natural rubber increased from - 150 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread data of different chemicals in different periods (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are also presented, like the 5 - 1 spread of methanol is - 94 yuan/ton [11]. - Cross - product spread data such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are provided, with the LLDPE - PVC spread on June 27 being 2397 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different changes. For example, the basis of rebar increased from 75 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [16]. - Spread data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of iron ore is - 16.5 yuan/ton [16]. - Cross - product data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented, with the rebar/iron ore ratio on June 27 being 4.18 [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., in the domestic market from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different trends. For example, the basis of copper increased from 130 yuan/ton to 420 yuan/ton [24]. - LME spread, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper on June 27 is 240.67 [31]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals are presented, with relevant data trends and values for different metals [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different changes. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 increased from - 170 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [41]. - Spread data of different agricultural products in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No.1 is 19 yuan/ton [39]. - Cross - product data such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are presented, with the soybean No.1/corn ratio on June 27 being 1.74 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different trends. For example, the basis of CSI 300 decreased from 60.50 to 45.16 [49]. - Spread data of different stock index futures in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of CSI 300 is - 11.2 [49].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/23 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 566. 6 | 574.5 | 7.90 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,原油高开低走,PTA行情冲高回落 | | | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 860. 5 | 837. 1 | -23.41 | 。午后传闻华东某PX企业可能减少7月长约供应量,暂 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2090 | 1. 2005 | -0. 0085 | 无官宣消息,午后PTA行情一度反弹。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 896 | 899 | 3 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 250 | 253 | 3 ...

【导读】央行重磅，金融科技板块掀起涨停潮 中国基金报记者 安曼 A 股重返 3400 点！ 6 月 24 日， A 股主要股指普遍走高。截至午间收盘，上证指数报 3415.45 点，涨幅达 1% ；深证成指上涨 1.45% ，创业板指报涨幅达 1.94% 。 资金面上，全市场上涨个股超过 4660 只，两市成交额达 9251.68 亿元。 | 万得全A涨跌分布 | | | --- | --- | | 跌 660 | 涨 4667 | | 成交额 9251.68亿 | 预测成交额1.48万亿,增3330亿 | 盘面上，券商、保险等金融权重股成为拉升沪指的主力。从板块看，无人驾驶、机器人概念 股集体爆发，相关的算力、 AI 应用、稳定币、固态电池、消费电子题材表现活跃；油气、海 运板块出现调整。 央行重磅 突然掀起涨停潮 基建股异动 北方国际两分钟直线拉涨停 临近午间收盘，基建股盘中异动，北方国际两分钟直线拉涨停。 中工国际涨 9.80% ，山推股份、北新路桥、上海港湾等跟涨。 6 月 24 日上午，国家数据局举办 " 数据要素 ×" 系列第二场新闻发布会。中国人民银行科 技司副司长周祥昆介绍了中国人民银行在《 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/18 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/17 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

在美伊冲突再起之际，油价周一却意外大幅下跌，显示出市场对局势缓和的预期正在增强。 | 能源化工 区 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原油 | ICE布油 | ICE轻质低硫原油 | | 67.23 | 69.67 | 66.05 | | -6.61 -8.95% | -5.81 -7.70% | -5.96 -8.28% | | INE原油 | INE低硫燃料油 | NYMEX天然气 | | 537.7 | 3988 | 3.679 | | -32.2 -5.65% | | -2 -0.05% -0.168 -4.37% | 当地时间6月23日，伊朗对美国驻卡塔尔基地的报复性打击没有投资者担心的那么严重，从而缓解了市场对冲突将立即中断中东供应的担忧，油价因此下 跌。伊朗向美国驻卡塔尔基地发射导弹后，美油暴跌4%，交易商此前担心伊朗的报复性反应将涉及关闭霍尔木兹海峡，全球约五分之一的石油通过该海 峡。虽然最初有人担心伊朗会干扰供应以报复美国，但这种担心已经有所减弱。"这似乎是精心策划的，伊朗袭击了一个空无一人的美国基地，提前发出 了大量警告，并关闭了领空，还提供了躲避指 ...

Group 1 - U.S. President Trump has called for lower oil prices, stating "Everyone, bring down the oil prices, I'm watching" [2][3] - Following Trump's comments, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude dropping over 1% and INE crude falling more than 2% [3] - Energy stocks in the U.S. surged, with Houston Energy rising over 65%, Indonesia Energy increasing nearly 50%, and major U.S. energy companies gaining over 15% [5] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to rising international oil prices, with concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran [5] - Tesla's stock rose by 5% after the launch of its autonomous taxi service, Robotaxi, in Austin, Texas, with around 10 new Model Y vehicles deployed for initial passenger service [7] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw mixed performance, with JD Health rising over 10% and Li Auto increasing over 6%, while Luckin Coffee fell over 9% [9] Group 3 - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 52.0, above the expected 51.2, while the Services PMI was at 53.1, slightly above the forecast of 53.0 [9] - A Wall Street analyst has warned that the S&P 500 index could drop by 25%, predicting a potential recession in the U.S. economy [10][11]