1月6日，黄金价格在2025年末再度刷新历史纪录，这一现象深刻反映了黄金市场在结构性支撑下依然稳 健。即便步入2026年后涨幅可能出现边际收窄，但整体上行趋势已然明确。根据State Street投资管理公 司的数据显示，黄金在2025年录得了自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现。对此，Moneta Markets外汇认 为，2026年黄金市场有望延续这种牛市行情，预计全年将实现高个位数至低双位数的收益，金价目标将 直接锁定在4500美元至4600美元区间。 从市场博弈的角度来看，下一个重大的趋势性机会仍倾向于多头。Aakash Doshi指出，金价未来出现 20%至25%涨幅并奔向5000美元大关的概率，要远高于回落至3000美元。Moneta Markets外汇表示，目 前在3600美元至3700美元水平存在坚实的结构性支撑，这为金价构筑了牢固的底部。全球范围内高达 340万亿美元的负债总额，特别是占比超过30%的政府债务，正成为推动金价上涨的长期燃料。在通胀 顽固且长期收益率高企的环境下，黄金作为对冲久期风险与货币贬值的核心资产，其角色愈发不可替 代。 传统"股债对冲"模式的失效也为黄金带来了增量需求。由于 ...

资产配置 | 策略报告 当低利率邂逅风偏回归，资产配置被动为 盾，主动为矛 ——2026 年多资产配置展望 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | 021-63326320 | | --- | | 交易平稳，预期主导：——资产配置月报 | 2025-12-03 | | --- | --- | | 202512 | | | 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转 | 2025-12-03 | | 向：——资产配置模型月报 202512 | | | 资产配置不仅仅是风险分散：——主动型 | 2025-11-27 | | 资产配置新思路 | | | 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ | 2025-11-03 | | 有色/新能源等板块：——资产配置模型月 | | | 报 202511 | | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月 ...

Group 1 - The public fund industry in China has reached a historic milestone, with total assets surpassing 34 trillion yuan as of June 30, marking a significant growth in the market [1] - Fund manager Yu Jianfeng from Dongfanghong Asset Management has demonstrated strong performance, with his three managed products achieving notable returns, including a net value growth rate of 26.79% for the Dongfanghong Mingjian Youxuan Fund [1][2] - Yu Jianfeng emphasizes the importance of risk premium in asset pricing, advocating for scientific risk management to achieve excess returns [2][3] Group 2 - Yu Jianfeng's investment strategy focuses on stock-bond hedging, utilizing the low or negative correlation between these asset classes to construct a high Sharpe ratio portfolio [2] - The target volatility model is crucial in Yu's approach, with a specific example of setting a 5% target volatility for the Dongfanghong Anying Zhenxuan Fund, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions [2][3] - Yu's risk management strategy involves comprehensive monitoring and adjustment throughout the investment process, ensuring that the fund can respond effectively to market fluctuations [3] Group 3 - Yu Jianfeng recognizes the unique characteristics of the Chinese market, such as the differences in market capitalization metrics, and incorporates macroeconomic factors into his investment considerations [3] - For the second half of the year, Yu maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, suggesting that falling bond yields may increase risk appetite, while emphasizing the need for policy catalysts in the bond market [3] - In a low-interest-rate environment, Yu believes that "fixed income plus" or mixed products can better meet investors' needs for stable growth, leveraging stock-bond hedging and convertible bond strategies [3][4]