报告导读： 上周新兴市场涨幅收窄、发达市场收平，特朗普提名联储主席候选人沃什导 致"鹰派"交易，避险资产与有色领跌。资金面上，由于联储主席提名人选偏鹰派，美联储 降息预期走弱。基本面上，上周日股欧股盈利预期上修，欧美经济高频景气上修。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： " 鹰派沃什交易落地，股市波动率攀升 ；报告日期：2026.02.03 报告作者： 陈菲(分析师)登记编号：S0880525040127 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 市场表现：上周新兴市场涨幅收窄。 股市方面，MSCI全球+0.2%，其中MSCI发达市场+0.0%、MSCI新兴市场+1.4%。债市方面，美国10Y国债利率上升幅 度最大。大宗方面，原油大涨，金银明显回调。汇率方 ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.03 上周新兴市场涨幅收窄、发达市场收平，特朗普提名联储主席候选人沃什导致"鹰派" 交易，避险资产与有色领跌。资金面上，由于联储主席提名人选偏鹰派，美联储降 息预期走弱。基本面上，上周日股欧股盈利预期上修，欧美经济高频景气上修。 投资要点： | | 021-23187260 | | --- | --- | | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040127 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 地缘风险频发，避险资产领涨 2026.01.27 地缘事件与财报季交织，科技结构冲高 2026.01.20 跨年行情在途，亚洲继续领涨 2026.01.14 岁末年初躁动下亚洲市场领涨 2026.01.06 长线外资积极增配港股软件服务 2026.01.04 证 券 研 究 报 告 略 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 鹰派沃什交易落地，股市波动率攀升 [Table_Authors] 陈菲(分析师) 全球股市立体投资策略周报 2 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 策 海 外 策 略 研 究 [Table_Summa ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Gold's short - term price may continue to adjust, but its long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver also enters a short - term adjustment period with high volatility risks, and its long - term upward support is still strong. The "Wash trade" is a short - term catalyst for the market adjustment, but it is difficult to cause a trend - based negative impact on precious metals [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Sections Gold Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period after overheating, while the long - term upward logic remains intact [2]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in gold prices is mainly due to technical adjustments caused by overcrowded long - positions and the "Wash trade". Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, was nominated as the next Fed chair on January 30, and his hawkish stance (supporting rate cuts but also advocating balance - sheet reduction) led to market concerns. However, his nomination is unlikely to cause a long - term negative impact on precious metals [2]. - **Outlook**: Gold's long - term upward trend is still supported [2]. Silver Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period, and high - volatility risks should be watched out for [3]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in silver prices is due to technical corrections caused by over - buying and crowded trading, and the "Wash trade" has intensified the adjustment. The decline in the London silver spot leasing rate and the reduction in global silver ETF holdings also slow down the bullish drivers on the spot side [3]. - **Outlook**: Silver still has strong long - term bullish support [3]. Market Indexes - **Special Indexes**: On February 2, 2026, the commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the precious metals index was 4447.17, with a daily decline of 11.27%, a 5 - day decline of 10.91%, a one - month increase of 16.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.29% [47].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 唐文豪（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03152608 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：期待探底回升 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：380000-450000元/吨 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 万手 x 10000 持仓量 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 1 ...