Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase last week, with MSCI global index up by 0.2%, MSCI developed markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 1.4% [2] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced the largest increase [2] - Commodities saw a significant rise in oil prices, while gold and silver experienced notable pullbacks [2] - The dollar depreciated, while the British pound and Japanese yen appreciated, and the Chinese yuan depreciated [2] Trading Sentiment - Global market trading volume increased last week, with major indices showing rising volatility [2] - Trading volumes in A/H/U.S./European/Japanese stocks increased, while South Korean stock trading volume decreased [2] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong stocks rose and is at historical highs, while U.S. investor sentiment is also at historical highs [2] - Volatility increased in Hong Kong, U.S., European, and Japanese stocks, while U.S. Treasury bond volatility decreased [2] - Valuations in both developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [2] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward last week [3] - As of January 30, 2026, the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised from -2.1% to -2.0% for 2025 [3] - The S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 was revised from +10.5% to +11.8% [3] - The Eurozone STOXX 50's EPS forecast for 2025 was revised from -4.5% to -4.4% [3] Economic Expectations - The U.S. economic surprise index rose last week, potentially due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and easing geopolitical tensions [3] - The European economic surprise index also improved, supported by better-than-expected GDP growth in the Eurozone for Q4 [3] - The Chinese economic surprise index showed marginal improvement, influenced by real estate and service consumption policy expectations, as well as improved Sino-British relations [3] Capital Flows - The hawkish nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has influenced market expectations [4] - As of January 30, the market anticipates 2.1 rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, a slight decrease from the previous week [4] - Global liquidity saw significant inflows into mainland China, the U.S., South Korea, India, and Europe last week, with the largest inflow into Hong Kong stocks coming from the Stock Connect [4]

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase last week, with MSCI global index up by 0.2%, MSCI developed markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 1.4% [1] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield experienced the largest increase, while commodities like oil surged and gold and silver saw notable pullbacks [1] - The global energy sector showed consistent growth, with Chinese stocks performing strongly in cyclical sectors, and utilities and communications in Europe and the U.S. outperforming [1] Trading Sentiment - Global market trading volume increased last week, with major indices experiencing higher volatility [1] - A/H/U.S./European/Japanese stock trading volumes rose, while Korean stock trading volume decreased [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved and reached historical highs, while U.S. investor sentiment also remained at historical highs [1] - Volatility increased across Hong Kong, U.S., European, and Japanese stocks, while U.S. Treasury bond volatility decreased [1] - Valuations for both developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward last week, with the following changes: 1) Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from -2.1% to -2.0% 2) U.S. S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS forecast revised from +10.5% to +11.8% 3) Eurozone STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from -4.5% to -4.4% [2] Economic Expectations - The U.S. economic surprise index rose last week, potentially due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and easing geopolitical tensions [2] - The European economic surprise index also improved, likely supported by better-than-expected GDP growth in the Eurozone for Q4 [2] - The Chinese economic surprise index showed marginal improvement, influenced by expectations surrounding real estate and service consumption policies, as well as improved Sino-British relations [2] Capital Flows - The hawkish nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has influenced market expectations, with a slight decrease in the anticipated number of rate cuts for 2026 [3] - Global liquidity remained stable, with significant capital inflows into China, the U.S., South Korea, India, and Europe [3] - The largest incremental capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks came from the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3]

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing of gains, with MSCI Global up by 0.2%, MSCI Developed Markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.4% [8][11] - In developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index performed the best with a gain of 4.7%, while Germany's DAX was the weakest, down by 1.5% [8] - In the emerging markets, the Hang Seng Index was the top performer, increasing by 2.4%, while Mexico's MXX declined by 0.9% [8] Trading Sentiment - Global markets experienced increased trading volumes, with major indices showing a rise in volatility [24] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a decrease in short-selling ratio to 12.9%, indicating a high investor sentiment [24][27] - North American investment sentiment reached historical highs, with the NAAIM manager exposure index rising to 92.6% [24][27] Fund Flows - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has triggered hawkish trading expectations [55] - As of January 30, market expectations indicate the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates 2.1 times in 2026, a slight decrease from the previous week [55][58] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of HKD 5.9 billion, with significant contributions from the Stock Connect program [62][64] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from -2.1% to -2.0% [66] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was raised from +10.5% to +11.8%, with the industrial sector seeing the largest upward revision of +7.9% [66] - In the European market, the Eurozone STOXX50's 2025 EPS forecast improved from -4.5% to -4.4% [66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Gold's short - term price may continue to adjust, but its long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver also enters a short - term adjustment period with high volatility risks, and its long - term upward support is still strong. The "Wash trade" is a short - term catalyst for the market adjustment, but it is difficult to cause a trend - based negative impact on precious metals [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Sections Gold Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period after overheating, while the long - term upward logic remains intact [2]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in gold prices is mainly due to technical adjustments caused by overcrowded long - positions and the "Wash trade". Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, was nominated as the next Fed chair on January 30, and his hawkish stance (supporting rate cuts but also advocating balance - sheet reduction) led to market concerns. However, his nomination is unlikely to cause a long - term negative impact on precious metals [2]. - **Outlook**: Gold's long - term upward trend is still supported [2]. Silver Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period, and high - volatility risks should be watched out for [3]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in silver prices is due to technical corrections caused by over - buying and crowded trading, and the "Wash trade" has intensified the adjustment. The decline in the London silver spot leasing rate and the reduction in global silver ETF holdings also slow down the bullish drivers on the spot side [3]. - **Outlook**: Silver still has strong long - term bullish support [3]. Market Indexes - **Special Indexes**: On February 2, 2026, the commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the precious metals index was 4447.17, with a daily decline of 11.27%, a 5 - day decline of 10.91%, a one - month increase of 16.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.29% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral, with a price range of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment, tin prices may still have a certain downward risk due to the overall influence of the non - ferrous sector, and tin prices are generally highly elastic. However, the tight fundamental situation has not significantly reversed. If the sharp decline further expands the safety margin, tin prices may have a repair and rebound market. There are significant differences in short - term unilateral views, and it is recommended to use option tools for protection [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount is - 227 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 0 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums remain flat [10][15] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure maintains a C structure [19] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 165 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 58 tons. LME inventory increased, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 3.74% [27][32] 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the funds precipitated in Shanghai tin are 391,560 million yuan, and the funds have flowed out in the past 10 days [36] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume of Shanghai tin increased, and the position decreased. The trading volume and position of LME tin increased [39][45] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin declined [51] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In October 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In December 2025, imports were 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - and - loss level rebounded [55][57] 3.2.2 Smelting - In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.34%, a slight decline from last week [62][64] 3.2.3 Import - In December 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net export was 1,215 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 10,538 yuan/ton [74] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [82] 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in December dropped to 72.7%. The output and sales of major tinplate enterprises in October increased slightly [84] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products performed well. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption rebounded month - on - month, while the automobile consumption declined month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased [91][93][99]