Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The four major stock indices may rebound and then fluctuate. Considering the long Spring Festival holiday, it is advisable to hold a light position before the holiday [11]. - The bond market has no obvious major negative factors and is generally oscillating upward. However, there is no further impetus to drive interest rates down. The bond market may move in a relatively narrow range and wait for the emergence of the next - stage main line [13]. - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the recovery of production lacks clear demand support. The inventory shows a continuous accumulation trend. High raw material prices may affect the profitability of industrial enterprises [19]. - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026 [22]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports rebounded unexpectedly. The "One Belt, One Road" investment - driven foreign trade cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline negatively, mainly due to the significant decline in profit margins [29]. - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative. In December, the decline of private investment and public investment both widened [32]. - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, social retail sales excluding automobiles, and retail sales above the quota all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the performance of the two showed differentiation [35]. - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In January, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Stock index trend review: Last week, the four major stock indices were under pressure and declined [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the stock index may move in a fluctuating manner [11]. - Strategy outlook: The stock index is expected to move in a range - bound manner [11]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Treasury bond trend review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main - contract treasury bonds rose by 0.42%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [13]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main - contract of treasury bonds may move in a fluctuating manner [13]. - Strategy outlook: Treasury bonds are expected to move in a fluctuating manner [13]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. The recovery of production is mainly due to the improvement of upstream industry operations and a slight strengthening of export orders, but there is no clear demand improvement support [19]. CPI - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026, including the low - base effect, the narrowing decline of pork prices, the impact of gold prices, and the expansion of service consumption [22]. Import and Export - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports rebounded unexpectedly to 6.6%, with a month - on - month growth of 8.3%. The annual export growth exceeded expectations mainly due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road" investment - driven foreign trade cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. Large - scale Industrial Enterprises - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline negatively, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant decline in profit margins [29]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, turning negative from positive. In December, the decline of private investment and public investment both widened, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses increased [32]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, social retail sales excluding automobiles, and retail sales above the quota all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the performance of the two showed differentiation. The reasons include the general weakness of consumption channels and the weakening drag of durable goods [35]. Social Financing - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In December 2025, the medium - and long - term loans of enterprises increased year - on - year. In January 2026, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations focusing on structural tools [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term stock index will continue to fluctuate within a range. Today, all stock indices rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1561.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 121.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the stock index is still in a shock - consolidation phase, lacking a market mainline and with a decline in capital trading enthusiasm. On one hand, there is a short - term lack of a mainline of policy benefits, and as the year - end approaches, the capital trading enthusiasm has declined, and the willingness of funds to liquidate and temporarily leave the market is relatively strong, limiting the short - term upward space of the stock index. On the other hand, the expectation of future policy - side benefits and the trend of long - term funds entering the market remain unchanged, providing strong support for the stock index. Moreover, the expectation of policy benefits from the Central Economic Work Conference is gradually fermenting, and investors' risk appetite is not pessimistic. In terms of options, considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index, a bullish spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF Index Performance**: On December 4, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.26% to 3.116; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.26% to 4.657; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.19% to 4.802; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.34% to 4546.57; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.01% to 7248.66; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.31% to 7.125; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.35% to 2.845; the GEM ETF rose 1.06% to 3.051; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.53% to 3.399; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.38% to 2974.34; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.38% to 1.39; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.20% to 1.35 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared to the previous trading day. For example, the 50ETF option volume PCR was 93.00 (previous day: 124.75), and the open interest PCR was 98.14 (previous day: 96.82) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - trading - day historical volatility of 2025 - December at - the - money options of various options were provided, such as the 50ETF option's implied volatility of 10.98% and historical volatility of 11.12% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: The report includes charts of the SSE 50ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [9][11][13][15][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: There are charts of the SSE 300ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [20][22][24][26][32]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts of the SZSE 300ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors are presented [33]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: The report contains charts of the CSI 300 Index's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [36][40][42][46]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: There are charts of the CSI 1000 Index's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [49]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts of the SSE 500ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors are included [63]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: The report shows charts of the SZSE 500ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [76]. - **GEM ETF Options**: There are charts of the GEM ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [89]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: The report includes charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [102]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts of the SSE 50 Index's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors are presented [115]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: There are charts of the STAR 50ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [128]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: The report shows charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [135].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index will mainly fluctuate within a range. Today, all stock indices rose and then fell, with all - day volatile consolidation. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1797.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 29 billion yuan from the previous day. Since November, the incremental policy signals have weakened, the driving force for the upward movement of the stock index has decreased, and the willingness of funds to liquidate and temporarily leave the market has increased. Recently, both the margin trading purchase amount and margin trading balance have declined, indicating that market sentiment has declined compared with before. However, the positive policy expectations and continuous capital inflows have not changed in the medium and long term, and the support force below the stock index has emerged after a short - term correction. Overall, with the interweaving of long and short factors in the short term, the market's main line is still unclear, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. [3] - Regarding options, considering the medium - and long - term upward trend of the stock index, a bull spread strategy can be adopted after a significant correction of the stock index. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On November 26, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.13% to close at 3.114; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.63% to close at 4.626; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.80% to close at 4.778; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61% to close at 4517.63; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.02% to close at 7248.45; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.16% to close at 7.065; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.18% to close at 2.825; the GEM ETF rose 2.23% to close at 3.027; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.72% to close at 3.370; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.12% to close at 2971.80; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.95% to close at 1.38; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.13% to close at 1.34. [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on November 26, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including those of 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options. [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are presented, such as 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 index options, etc. [7][8] 3.2 Relevant Charts - For each type of option (e.g., 50ETF options, 300ETF options in Shanghai and Shenzhen, etc.), multiple charts are provided, including the underlying asset's trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, position PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and chart of at - the - money implied volatility of each term. [9][20][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for IH2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The overall view is oscillatory and bullish, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is upward. The overall reference view is oscillatory and bullish. Although the main support comes from positive policy expectations, short - term upward momentum is weakening, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | Oscillatory | Upward | Oscillatory and bullish | Oscillatory and bullish | Policy - end positive expectations provide strong support [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indices continued to oscillate within a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 1405.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - The main support for stock indices comes from positive policy expectations. Due to unstable domestic demand and weak credit and inflation data, the market expects more policies to support economic demand and is concerned about the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July [5]. - Since late June, the stock indices have risen significantly, so the short - term upward momentum has weakened. The recent decline in trading volume indicates a cooling of the market's chasing sentiment [5].

Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will mainly fluctuate within a range, while the medium - term view is an upward trend. The core logic is that although there are policy - side positive expectations, there is a lack of clear short - term policy signals, and overseas geopolitical and tariff issues also affect market sentiment [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. Last Friday, the stock index trends were oscillatory and differentiated, with IH and IF slightly rising and IC and IM slightly falling. The central bank's 6 - month LPR quote was in line with market expectations. Domestic macro - economic indicators have weakened marginally, and there is a need for more demand - supporting policies, increasing policy - side positive expectations. However, there are no clear short - term policy signals, and the policy - side driving force is insufficient in the short term. Overseas, the Middle - East geopolitical crisis and the approaching tariff - war deadline affect market sentiment, so the stock index will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. For IH2506, the short - term is in a range, the medium - term is upward, and the intraday is slightly bullish, with policy - side positive expectations providing strong support [1][4]. - Although overseas uncertainties and weak domestic demand suppress the upward momentum of the stock index, the expectation of policy support due to weak macro - economic indicators provides strong bottom support. The market turning point can be observed from the policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th and its game with market expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term is a range, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is slightly bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. Yesterday, the stock indices were volatile in the morning and fell rapidly in the afternoon, closing down for the whole day. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting started in London, with high uncertainty in the results, leading to a wait - and - see market sentiment. Overseas uncertainties and weak domestic demand suppress the upward momentum of the stock index, but weak macro - economic indicators increase the expectation of policy support, providing strong bottom support. The market turning point can be observed from the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th [4].