◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨。股市全市场成交额 18650 亿元，较上日成交额放量 1163 亿元。 市场对 2026 年政策面利好预期逐渐发酵，推动市场风险偏好逐渐回升，中长线资金配置意愿上升， 对股指构成强有力支撑。不过短期内股市成交量能仍处于较低水平，反应短期内投资者风险偏好仍存 分歧，以观望居多。中长期来看，政策面利好预期以及资金净流入趋势保持向好态势，股指的支撑力 量较强。总的来说，短期内股指维持区间震荡。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 参考观点：区间震荡 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On December 1, 2025, the stock indices oscillated and rebounded. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1889.4 billion yuan, an increase of 291.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand and strong expectations for policy support. The central economic work conference in December is expected to bring incremental policy benefits. Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the risk of AI asset investment bubble has cooled, reducing market risk - aversion sentiment. In general, the expectations of policy benefits and the trend of long - term capital inflows remain unchanged, providing strong support for the stock indices. It is expected that the stock indices will oscillate strongly in the short term [4]. - For options, considering the medium - to long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted [4]. Group 3: Summary of "1 Option Indicators" - On December 1, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.77% to 3.137; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.12% to 4.687; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.05% to 4.833; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.10% to 4576.49; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.72% to 7386.68; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.94% to 7.202; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.98% to 2.874; the ChiNext ETF rose 1.25% to 3.073; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.42% to 3.418; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.81% to 2993.68; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.79% to 1.40; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.74% to 1.36 [6]. - The PCR values of various options' trading volume and open interest on December 1, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are presented in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [8][9]. Group 4: Summary of "2 Related Charts" - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10][12][14][16][18]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][22][24][26][30]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [33][35][37]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [38][40][42][44][48]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [51][54][56][58][60][62]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [65][67][69][71][73][76]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [77][79][81][83][85][87]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Charts cover the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [90][92][94][96][98][100]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [101][103][105][107][109][111]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [114][116][118][120][122][124]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [127][129][130][134]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [135][137].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for IH2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The overall view is oscillatory and bullish, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is upward. The overall reference view is oscillatory and bullish. Although the main support comes from positive policy expectations, short - term upward momentum is weakening, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | Oscillatory | Upward | Oscillatory and bullish | Oscillatory and bullish | Policy - end positive expectations provide strong support [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indices continued to oscillate within a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 1405.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - The main support for stock indices comes from positive policy expectations. Due to unstable domestic demand and weak credit and inflation data, the market expects more policies to support economic demand and is concerned about the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July [5]. - Since late June, the stock indices have risen significantly, so the short - term upward momentum has weakened. The recent decline in trading volume indicates a cooling of the market's chasing sentiment [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The main support for the market comes from the expected policy benefits in the future. After continuous rebounds, the rebound momentum has slowed down. The market needs to pay attention to the policy guidance of the July key meeting and the sustainability of the optimistic market atmosphere, as well as the changes in stock trading volume [1][4] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view reference is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the expected policy benefits provide strong support [1] 2. Driving Logic of Main Variety Price Quotes - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated narrowly. The total stock market trading volume was 162.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to continuous rebounds, the rebound momentum has slowed down. The main support comes from the expected policy benefits. After the marginal weakening of credit and inflation indicators in May, the expectation of policy support has increased, and external risks have marginally slowed down, turning market sentiment positive [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the stock index will mainly show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term upward trend. Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the market turnover increased. The market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of geopolitical risks, but short - term policy signals are lacking, and external risks may cause some disturbances [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference view is range - bound oscillation, and the core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the total market turnover of the stock market was 1447.9 billion yuan, an increase of 301.1 billion yuan compared with the previous day [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Iran's acceptance of the cease - fire plan has eased geopolitical risks, and the market's risk preference has recovered. The main support for the market comes from the expected positive policies in the future due to weak credit and inflation data [4]. - **Negative Factors**: There is no incremental policy signal in the short - term, and it is necessary to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July. The implementation of the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel is still uncertain, and external risks may affect the market's risk preference [4].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is going up, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The policy - side positive expectations form strong support, but there are uncertainties from external factors such as the evolution after the end of the Sino - US tariff war suspension period and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the latest May credit data shows weak real - economy financing demand, so policy - side support is expected. The positive policy expectations strengthen the bottom support of the stock index. Also, there are high uncertainties from external factors, and the stock market risk preference is defensive. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate in an interval, waiting for new driving forces [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of IH2506 are both "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "range oscillation" due to the coexistence of positive policy expectations and external uncertainties [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "range oscillation". The stock index is in an oscillatory consolidation phase before the holiday because of the coexistence of multiple long and short factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the view is "range oscillation". The core logic is the coexistence of positive policy expectations and external uncertainties [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index continued its narrow - range oscillatory consolidation. The stock market trading volume was 1.0417 trillion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - The Politburo meeting in April sent a signal of stabilizing expectations and confidence to the market, but there is no signal of concentrated policy intensification yet. Policy expectations will rise if economic data weakens [5]. - As the impact of the external tariff war weakens marginally and domestic policies are still in the observation period, the driving force of the stock index has weakened, leading to an oscillatory consolidation [5]. - The stock market trading volume has been stable at around 1 trillion yuan recently, indicating that investors' wait - and - see sentiment has increased and their willingness to chase the rise is not strong [5]. - The stock index has rebounded to the gap position in early April and faces technical selling pressure if it continues to rise. Also, investors are cautious due to the uncertainties during the May Day holiday [5].