Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "upward", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a stronger bias", with the overall view being "oscillation with a stronger bias" due to strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a stronger bias", the medium - term view is "upward", and the reference view is "oscillation with a stronger bias". In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range, and continuous attention should be paid to the realization of positive policy expectations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, short - term is defined as within a week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "upward", intraday is "oscillation with a stronger bias", and the overall view is "oscillation with a stronger bias". The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and sorted, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The total market turnover of the stock market was 1454.5 billion yuan, an increase of 121 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Due to the considerable increase in each stock index since late June, the upward momentum of the stock index has slowed down. From a macro and policy perspective, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to the impact of tariff factors. More positive policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations are needed in the second half of the year, which is the main logic for this round of stock index rebound. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting in July. In the short term, the liquidity at the beginning of the month is relatively loose, and the fading of overseas geopolitical factors and the easing of tariff factors have also boosted the risk appetite of the stock market [4].

海外宏观环境改善，股指反弹 市场分析 美国经济增速高于初值。国内方面，商务部回应中美经贸磋商新动向表示，中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，双方在多 个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持沟通。近期中方围绕美方在半导体领域滥用出口管制措施等做法，多次与美方进 行交涉。对于欧盟对华轮胎产品发起反倾销调查，中方将密切关注欧方后续行动，并坚决维护中国企业合法权益。 海外方面，美国第一季度GDP修正值按年率计算萎缩0.2%，较此前公布的初值（萎缩0.3%）略有上调，但仍显示 美国经济在年初遭遇了收缩。消费支出增速大幅下调，创下近两年来的最弱增速。企业利润暴跌2.9%，创下2020 年以来最大跌幅。核心PCE小幅下调至3.4%。 FICC日报 | 2025-05-30 股指反弹。现货市场，A股三大指数高开高走，上证指数涨0.7%收于3363.45点，创业板指涨1.37%。行业方面，板 块指数涨多跌少，计算机、医药生物、电子、国防军工行业领涨，仅美容护理、银行、食品饮料、石油石化行业 收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额升至1.2万亿元。海外市场，美国联邦上诉法院暂停一项阻止特朗普征收全球关税的 裁决，对于暂停期是否会进一步延长，法院尚在考虑之中。此前 ...