Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 6.15%. The CSI 300 Index declined by 3.77% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, only 520 stocks rose, accounting for 9.54%, while 4,922 stocks fell [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The total net outflow of main funds this week was 338.316 billion yuan, with a consistent net outflow across all trading days. The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 83.167 billion yuan, while the STAR Market had a net outflow of 31.381 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 experienced a net outflow of 96.799 billion yuan [1][2] Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, the sectors with the largest declines were Power Equipment and Comprehensive, with declines of 10.54% and 9.18%, respectively. Only the banking sector saw a net inflow of main funds, totaling 5.96237 million yuan, despite a slight decline of 0.89% [3] - A total of 30 industries experienced net outflows, with the Power Equipment sector leading with a net outflow of 65.046 billion yuan and a decline of 10.54%. The Electronics sector followed with a net outflow of 50.373 billion yuan and a decline of 5.89% [3] Detailed Industry Fund Flow - The following industries experienced significant fund outflows: - Power Equipment: -10.54%, -650.46 billion yuan - Electronics: -5.89%, -503.73 billion yuan - Pharmaceutical Biology: -6.88%, -321.53 billion yuan - Non-ferrous Metals: -6.75%, -253.91 billion yuan - Basic Chemicals: -7.47%, -172.82 billion yuan [4][5] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 936 stocks saw net inflows, with 148 stocks having inflows exceeding 100 million yuan. The stock with the highest net inflow was Kaimete Gas, which rose by 13.93% with a net inflow of 1.462 billion yuan. Other notable stocks included Yidian Tianxia and Rongji Software, with net inflows of 914 million yuan and 873 million yuan, respectively [5] - Conversely, 871 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Yangguang Electric, Xiangnong Chip, and Ningde Times, which saw outflows of 4.224 billion yuan, 3.686 billion yuan, and 3.582 billion yuan, respectively [5]

业 | 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 计算机 | 65.82 | 26.38 | 3.71 | 1.67 | 72.11 | | 国防军 工 | 27.51 | 47.67 | 3.10 | 1.59 | 28.92 | | 基础化 工 | 90.53 | -6.91 | 3.32 | 0.74 | 7.18 | | 传媒 | 49.61 | 25.60 | 3.37 | 0.16 | 1.77 | | 房地产 | 59.52 | -4.80 | 2.71 | 1.00 | 1.76 | | 石油石 化 | 23.86 | -1.05 | 0.65 | 0.97 | 0.91 | | 美容护 理 | 2.23 | -14.19 | 2.16 | -0.72 | -1.13 | | 社会服 务 | 14.49 | -5.73 | 3.15 | 0.63 | -1.90 | | 钢铁 | 27.6 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 海外扰动加剧，股指冲高回落 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-11-17 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 素 | | | | 经济和企 | 偏空 | 10月经济数据显示，基本面继续呈现走弱态势，投资增速与房地产价格加速下滑。具体来看，1-10月固定资产投资累计同比下降1.7%，增速较9 月回落1.2个百分点。从投资结构分析，房地产投资累计同比下降14.7%，降幅较上期扩大0.8个百分点；基建投资累计同比增长1.51%，增速回 | | 业盈利 | | 落1.83个百分点；制造业投资累计同比增幅为2.7%，较前值下降1.3个百分点。值得注意的是，通胀出现小幅回升，10月CPI同比增速转正至 | | | | 0.2%，环比亦小幅上升0.1个百分点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal convergence of macro - liquidity has been confirmed, and the subsequent basic assumption is a fundamental combination of stable profits, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds, and the equity style favors value. The recommended allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) are recommended [8][24]. - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline, and the government's liability growth rate will also trend downwards. The economy on the asset side needs to be observed for signs of stabilization or marginal upward movement [2][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In October 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.6%, down from 8.8% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to drop slightly to around 8.5% in November and continue to decline, returning to the de - leveraging phase. By the end of the year, it is expected to fall to around 8.3% [2][17]. - The financial sector's liquidity marginally converged last week. The high - point of liquidity in November is estimated to have occurred on the 6th, and the probability of marginal convergence of macro - liquidity is relatively high in the future [2][17]. - The government's liability growth rate was 13.9% at the end of October 2025, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to decline to around 13.0% in November and by the end of the year [3][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Policy - Last week, the net increase in government bonds (including national and local bonds) was 476.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned 264.8 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net increase is 228.3 billion yuan [3][18]. 3.1.3 Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price of funds increased, and the term spread slightly decreased. The yield of one - year Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, with a central value of around 1.4%. The term spread between ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 40 basis points. The future fluctuation ranges of ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond yields are estimated to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][18]. 3.1.4 Asset Side - In October, the physical quantity data continued to weaken compared to September. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether this nominal economic growth rate will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the liquidity marginally converged, and the high - point of liquidity in November is estimated to have occurred on the 6th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence of macro - liquidity. Stocks performed poorly, and bonds were stable. The value style in the equity market continued to dominate. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.81%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.41%, the term spread slightly decreased to 40 basis points, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 2.15% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.1 percentage points last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, the broad - based rotation strategy has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 6.62 percentage points, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to the CSI 300's maximum drawdown of 15.7%) [6][21]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined slightly. Among the Shenwan primary industries, the top - performing sectors were comprehensive, textile and apparel, commercial retail, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology, with weekly increases of 7%, 4.4%, 4.1%, 3.7%, and 3.3% respectively. The sectors with the largest declines were communication, electronics, computer, machinery and equipment, and national defense and military industry, with weekly changes of - 4.8%, - 4.8%, - 3%, - 2.2%, and - 2.2% respectively [29]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of November 14, the top five crowded industries were power equipment, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals, with crowding levels of 15.6%, 14.5%, 7.2%, 7.1%, and 6% respectively. The bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, steel, social services, and petroleum and petrochemicals, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.8% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, food and beverage, real estate, and banks, with increases of 2.4%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were power equipment, automobiles, computers, electronics, and machinery and equipment, with changes of - 1.6%, - 1.3%, - 0.9%, - 0.5%, and - 0.5% respectively [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 2.04 trillion yuan this week, slightly higher than last week's 2.01 trillion yuan. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were food and beverage, comprehensive, commercial retail, basic chemicals, and beauty care, with volume changes of 59.1%, 35.2%, 35%, 34.7%, and 19.7% respectively. The industries with the smallest increases in trading volume were media, computer, steel, banks, and coal, with volume changes of - 21.7%, - 21.6%, - 20%, - 13%, and - 10.4% respectively [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Profitability - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the sectors with the largest increases in PE(TTM) were comprehensive, commercial retail, beauty care, textile and apparel, and basic chemicals, with changes of 5.3%, 5.1%, 4.9%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively. The sectors with the smallest increases were communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery and equipment, and computer, with valuation changes of - 2.4%, - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 1.3%, and - 1.2% respectively [36]. - As of November 14, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - Externally, there was a marginal recovery. In October, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed changes. The CCFI index increased by 3.4% week - on - week in the latest week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate dropped to 3.6% in October and rose to 6.4% in the first 10 days of November. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 25.3% in September to 18.2% in October [40]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed changes. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries, which had been rising from May to August 2025, declined from September to October and slightly rebounded in November but remained at a historical low. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing sales declined seasonally compared to history. As of November 9, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.39% week - on - week. As of October 31, the producer price index increased by 0.3% week - on - week [40]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the second week of November (November 10 - 14), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly performance levels were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.5%, and - 0.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 declined by 1.1% weekly [53]. - As of November 14, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.89 trillion yuan, slightly higher than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendations - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds only slightly favors equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are expected to have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good profitability, and survival. Combining these characteristics with the under - allocation in the public fund's quarterly report, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [59].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of November 11, the latest market financing balance reached 24,871.64 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 4.008 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with 18 out of 31 primary industries showing an increase in financing balance [1][2] Industry Financing Balance Changes - The banking industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, up by 0.423 billion yuan to 756.86 billion yuan [1] - Other industries with notable increases include: - Retail: up by 0.359 billion yuan to 272.74 billion yuan, a growth of 1.33% [1] - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: up by 0.347 billion yuan to 280.88 billion yuan, a growth of 1.25% [1] - Pharmaceutical and Biological: up by 0.344 billion yuan to 1,677.17 billion yuan, a growth of 0.21% [1] - Industries with the largest decreases in financing balance include: - Electronics: down by 15.47 billion yuan to 3,626.15 billion yuan, a decline of 0.42% [2] - Communication: down by 8.60 billion yuan to 1,098.62 billion yuan, a decline of 0.78% [2] - Computer: down by 8.48 billion yuan to 1,822.49 billion yuan, a decline of 0.46% [2] Financing Balance by Industry - The following industries had significant financing balances as of November 11: - Electronics: 3,626.15 billion yuan [2] - Communication: 1,098.62 billion yuan [2] - Computer: 1,822.49 billion yuan [2] - Non-banking Financial: 1,916.84 billion yuan [1] - Power Equipment: 2,211.06 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant outflow of main funds from the market, totaling 289.23 billion yuan over the past two weeks, with no industry experiencing net inflows [5][6][8] - The top three industries with the largest net outflows of main funds are electronics, computers, and communications, indicating a bearish sentiment in these sectors [5][8] - The financing and securities lending balance in the market is currently at 2.498849 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.95% increase compared to the previous period, with the financing balance at 2.480549 trillion yuan and the securities lending balance at 183 million yuan [5][9] Group 2 - In terms of market performance, the number of stocks that rose exceeded those that fell in the past two weeks, with the top three performing industries being power equipment, steel, and basic chemicals, while the worst performers were beauty care, communications, and electronics [5][21] - The overall strength analysis score for all A-shares is 5.41, indicating a neutral market condition, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index scoring 5.15, the ChiNext scoring 5.26, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board scoring 4.58 [5][26][27] - The market is currently in a "normal" state, suggesting that investors should observe carefully and choose their direction wisely, with a potential focus on technology and Hong Kong stocks for rebound opportunities [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a volatile pattern last week (2025.11.03 - 2025.11.07), with the value style outperforming the growth style. The market is "desensitized" to positive news due to the lack of earnings report data and the intensified high - level volatility of the US AI sector. The style switch is becoming clearer, and the power grid and energy storage industries are attracting funds [3][13][14]. - The new fund issuance is continuously warming up, and "same - day sold - out funds" have reappeared [6]. - The electricity new (E - new) sector is expected to become one of the main market trends, as the energy logic, especially power supply, is hard to be falsified in the short term, and the expectation of green power policies in China is rising [5][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The A - share market was volatile last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.65%, the CSI Dividend Index rose 2.25%, and the North Exchange 50 Index fell 3.79%. The pro - cyclical sectors such as power equipment, coal, and petrochemicals led the gains, while the computer and pharmaceutical sectors declined. The average daily trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan, down from the previous period [13]. - **Market Features**: The market is "desensitized" to positive news in the fourth quarter. The style switch is clear, and the power grid and energy storage industries are favored. The Shanghai Composite Index may fluctuate around 4000 points, and a fundamental driving force is needed to break through [14]. - **Technology Direction**: In the US, the government's interest - binding with cloud service providers in the AI industry is expected to strengthen. In China, the domestic computing power industry chain is sluggish, and the capital expenditure growth of cloud service providers has slowed down [14]. - **Policy**: On November 7, the State Council issued an implementation opinion focusing on digital - real economy integration, providing long - term policy support for AI, intelligent manufacturing, and new energy industries [15]. - **Power Direction**: The global AI competition is a Sino - US duopoly. China faces challenges in advanced - process chips, while the US has energy infrastructure bottlenecks. The E - new sector is expected to be a market mainstay, with more certain profit realization next year [5][15][16]. 3.2 Public Fund Market Dynamics New fund issuance is warming up, with two funds raising over 3 billion yuan in one day on November 4 [6][18]. 3.3 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Category | Last Week | Last Month | YTD | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Selection | 0.72% | - 1.06% | 39.20% | 40.33% | | Value Stock Fund Selection | 1.29% | 1.18% | 19.44% | 19.53% | | Balanced Stock Fund Selection | 0.66% | - 1.73% | 32.40% | 29.50% | | Growth Stock Fund Selection | 0.16% | - 3.55% | 52.89% | 39.14% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection | - 4.77% | - 8.16% | 36.20% | 17.99% | | Consumption Stock Fund Selection | - 2.11% | - 5.83% | 12.55% | 5.30% | | Technology Stock Fund Selection | 0.75% | - 3.17% | 48.52% | 50.85% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection | 1.23% | - 0.45% | 38.37% | 31.69% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Selection | - 0.25% | - 4.50% | 25.79% | 16.91% | Each index has its own positioning and performance comparison benchmark. For example, the Active Stock Fund Selection Index selects 15 funds equally weighted, and its benchmark is the CSI Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [19][20].

Group 1 - The current technology sector continues to adjust, with some thematic markets showing signs of recovery, but sustainability remains insufficient, indicating a primarily oscillating market structure [1][4] - Focus on investment opportunities in themes such as anti-involution and new productive forces, which are expected to enhance long-term investment value [1] - Consumption plays a crucial role in stabilizing the economy, with particular attention to service consumption and new consumption segments [1] Group 2 - Last week, the A-share market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with major indices mostly recording gains; the All A Index rose by 0.63% [2] - The leading sectors included electric power equipment, coal, and oil and petrochemicals, while beauty care, computers, and pharmaceuticals saw declines [2] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 20,123 billion yuan, down by 3,129.86 million yuan from the previous week [3] Group 3 - The valuation of the All A Index increased by 0.86% to 22.20 times, placing it in the 89.19% percentile since 2010, while the PB valuation rose by 0.85% to 1.82 times, in the 49.83% percentile [3] - The market is expected to maintain rapid rotation of hotspots, with sectors like electric grid equipment, lithium batteries, and chemicals showing upward trends [4] - The third-quarter reports of listed companies demonstrate resilience in fundamentals, highlighting structural strengths [4]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3960.19 points with a decline of 0.41% on November 4, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.71% and 1.96% respectively [1] - A total of 1949 stocks saw an increase in average transaction volume, with 47 stocks experiencing a rise of over 50% [1] - Notable stocks with significant increases in transaction volume include Moen Electric, Luopus Gold, and Hanjian Heshan, among others [1] Transaction Volume Highlights - Moen Electric (002451) had a daily increase of 10.03% with an average transaction volume of 3517 shares, showing a remarkable increase of 421.04% [1] - Luopus Gold (002333) also increased by 10.02% with an average transaction volume of 2971 shares, reflecting a 235.83% rise [1] - Hanjian Heshan (603616) rose by 10.09% with an average transaction volume of 2786 shares, marking a 228.39% increase [1] Transaction Count Highlights - ST Fuhua (600624) recorded a transaction count increase of 2336.18% with 22218 transactions, despite a slight decline of 0.32% in stock price [2] - *ST Aowei (002231) saw a 1367.99% increase in transaction count with 8896 transactions, while its stock price rose by 0.88% [2] - ST Xinhua Jin (600735) had a transaction count increase of 1362.33% with 34862 transactions, with a minor price increase of 0.13% [2] Stocks with Significant Increases in Both Volume and Count - Bofei Electric (001255) had a daily increase of 10.01%, with an average transaction volume of 908 shares (194.55% increase) and a transaction count of 5309 (55.46% increase) [3] - *ST Baoying (002047) increased by 4.95%, with an average transaction volume of 9153 shares (182.43% increase) and a transaction count of 661 (196.41% increase) [4] - Zhongmin Energy (002047) rose by 9.96%, with an average transaction volume of 2935 shares (141.43% increase) and a transaction count of 26089 (118.24% increase) [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of the major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.41% closing at 3960.19 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.71% at 13175.22 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.96% at 3134.09 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1627 stocks that rose and 3646 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 19158 billion yuan, a decrease of 1913 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Most of the Shenwan first-level industries experienced declines, with only the banking, public utilities, social services, environmental protection, and textile and apparel sectors showing gains, increasing by 2.03%, 0.24%, 0.15%, 0.15%, and 0.07% respectively [1] - The sectors that led the decline included non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and basic chemicals, with declines of 3.04%, 2.05%, 1.97%, 1.74%, and 1.57% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included continuous boards, hit boards, first boards, banking, duty-free shops, high send-off, ultra-high voltage, insurance, Hainan Free Trade Port, film and television, vaccines, electricity, blood products, ST stocks, and rare earths [2] - Conversely, sectors such as CRO, industrial metals, and equity incentives saw a decline [12]