光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心上移，其中 WTI 12 月合约收盘上涨 0.83 美元至 | | | | 60.74 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.69 美元 | | | | 至 64.89 美元/桶，涨幅 1.07%。SC2512 以 466 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.4 元/桶，涨幅 1.17%。新换主力合约 SC2601 合约收盘在 465.7 | | | | 元/桶，上涨 3.4 元/桶，涨幅为 0.74%。API 数据显示，上周，美 | | | | 国 API 原油库存+444.8 万桶，之前一周+130 万桶。上周 API 库 | | | | 欣原油库存-79 万桶。上周 API 成品油汽油库存+154.6 万桶、馏 | | | | 分油库存+57.7 万桶。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 2025 年 10 | | | 原油 | 月汽油产量为 1345.7 万吨，同比增加 1.7%，1-10 月累计产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate under the future supply - demand re - balance. The fuel oil market, including both low - sulfur and high - sulfur, is expected to see a continued reversal in the market structure, with the LU - FU spread likely to maintain an upward trend. The asphalt price is currently viewed bearishly. PX&TA will follow the cost - end fluctuations in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is under pressure. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate due to the supply - demand imbalance. Methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation, and the polyolefin price will enter a phase of weakening oscillation. PVC will tend to oscillate at the bottom [1][3][5][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price dropped significantly. The WTI 12 - month contract closed at $58.49 per barrel, down $2.55 or 4.18%. The Brent 1 - month contract closed at $62.71 per barrel, down $2.45 or 3.76%. SC2512 closed at 450.8 yuan per barrel, down 15.8 yuan or 3.39%. OPEC expects global oil supply and demand to balance next year. EIA predicts that this year and 2026 will see record - high US oil production, with an average of 13.6 million barrels per day. API data shows that last week, US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed higher. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply surpluses and weak downstream demand, but the East - West arbitrage window is almost closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable downstream demand, and the LU - FU spread may continue to rebound [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed higher. This week, the social inventory rate decreased by 0.80% to 28.50%, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.36% to 33.50%, and the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level increased by 0.6% to 28.45%. Since November, asphalt production has decreased by 4.3% and consumption by 13.1% [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed higher on Wednesday. The PX futures contract also closed up. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 360,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan is restarting. PX&TA will follow cost - end fluctuations, and ethylene glycol is under supply pressure [3][5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures closed higher. In the first 10 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. In October, exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year but decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. The supply pressure is increasing, and the external demand for tires is weakening [5] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2072 yuan per ton. Domestic overhauled plants are resuming production, but Iranian plants may shut down from late November to December, which may lead to a decline in port inventory from mid - December to early January [7] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, but the downstream orders and operating rates will weaken after the e - commerce activities. The prices are expected to enter a weakly oscillating phase [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on November 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3. Market News - OPEC's monthly report shows that due to increased production from a broader OPEC group, global oil supply and demand are expected to balance next year. EIA's STEO report indicates that this year's US oil production will reach a record - high, with an average of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 [13] 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Multiple charts display the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis trends of main contracts for different products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [33][37][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, as well as the spreads of shipping indices [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratios between fuel oil and asphalt [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts display the production profits of LLDPE and PP [69] 5. Team Member Introduction - The team consists of several analysts, including Zhong Meiyan (Director of Energy - Chemical Research), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber and Polyester), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol and Polyolefins), each with their own professional backgrounds and achievements [74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily comments and views on various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride. Most products are expected to be in a volatile state [1][3][5]. - For crude oil, due to sanctions on Russia and potential supply disruptions, the price is expected to be strong, but macro - variables bring uncertainty [1]. - For fuel oil, the market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure [3]. - For asphalt, terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices, but it may fluctuate with crude oil [3]. - For polyester, it follows the cost - side fluctuation with sufficient supply and some support from downstream demand [5]. - For rubber, it has a short - term rebound adjustment with some tightness in the liquidity of some rubber types [5]. - For methanol, supply is at a high level, and it is recommended to pay attention to certain trading strategies [7]. - For polyolefins, short - term crude oil rebound supports the price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening [7]. - For polyvinyl chloride, it has a demand for price repair, but the rebound height is limited due to high inventory [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose $3.29 to $61.79/barrel (5.62% increase), Brent 12 - month contract rose $3.40 to $65.99/barrel (5.43% increase), and SC2511 rose 10.6 yuan/barrel to 463.8 yuan/barrel (2.34% increase). Sanctions on Russia increase the risk of supply disruptions, and the EU's new sanctions also affect the market. However, macro - variables bring uncertainty to the price increase [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 3.42% to 2752 yuan/ton, and LU2512 rose 2.9% to 3190 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's increased. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 rose 2.31% to 3277 yuan/ton. Terminal demand is weak, especially in the north due to weather, and high supply may suppress prices [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.58% to 4508 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 1.09% to 4095 yuan/ton. Some devices have changes, and the polyester chain follows the cost - side fluctuation with support from downstream demand [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 95 yuan/ton to 15245 yuan/ton, NR rose 80 yuan/ton to 12430 yuan/ton, and BR rose 70 yuan/ton to 11120 yuan/ton. Myanmar plans to increase rubber production, and the rubber market has a short - term rebound adjustment [5]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a high level both domestically and overseas. It is recommended to pay attention to strategies such as going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and monthly positive spreads [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Short - term crude oil rebound supports the price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening as demand growth slows down [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price has a demand for repair, but the high inventory limits the rebound height due to large supply - demand pressure and weak export prospects [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 24, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - Trump imposed further sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the US Treasury Secretary announced the specific targets. These sanctions increase the risk of supply disruptions in Russia [15]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production if necessary, but Putin believes that the global market needs time to replace Russian oil [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [17][20][23]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, over different time periods [36][40][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., over different time periods [50][52][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, B - W spreads, and spreads between other products like fuel oil and asphalt [66][72][73]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profits of PP and LLDPE [76]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team consists of members with different specializations, including a director, analysts for different product categories. Each member has rich experience and achievements in the energy and chemical research field [83][84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, due to sanctions concerns leading to unstable supply expectations, the price center has shifted upwards. It should be treated with a rebound mindset in the short - term [1] - For fuel oil, if oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may follow and rebound. Consider closing out short positions on the LU - FU spread, and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions later [3] - For asphalt, in the short - term, the market is supported by low supply and inventory, and the spot price is relatively firm. Consider short - term long positions after oil prices stabilize [5] - For polyester, with cost - side support from the traditional oil demand peak season and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories of TA and EG, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - For rubber, short - term prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to macro events at the end of July and the results of China - US tariff negotiations [7] - For methanol, after capacity utilization in Iran recovers to the peak and arrivals increase, with stable downstream profits and capacity utilization and increasing inventory, it is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - For polyolefins, they will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. If the cost side does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [7] - For PVC, supply remains at a high - level oscillation, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening again, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI September contract closed up $0.79 to $70.00/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Brent September contract closed up $0.73 to $73.24/barrel, a 1.01% increase. SC2508 closed at 523.6 yuan/barrel, down 7.4 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% decrease. Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1st and unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil. India may cooperate, which could affect Russia's daily oil exports of 2.3 million barrels. The US sanctioned five shipping management companies and one oil wholesaler for dealing with Iranian oil. EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory, a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.48% at 2,956 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed up 2.49% at 3,710 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in Shandong has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching 48.16%, but is 0.96% lower year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia faces supply pressure from stable Middle East shipments [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1% at 3,650 yuan/ton. The planned asphalt production in August is 2.41 million tons, a 5% increase from July and a 25% increase year - on - year. The social inventory rate this week is 35.33%, down 0.27% from last week, the refinery inventory level is 26.22%, up 1.12%, and the refinery capacity utilization rate is 35.91%, up 3.98% [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. EG2509 closed at 4,450 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. A 1.34 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East has started production and is ramping up capacity. With cost - side support and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories, polyester prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 65 yuan/ton at 14,945 yuan/ton, and NR closed down 95 yuan/ton at 12,575 yuan/ton. As of July 27, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, up 0.46 million tons or 0.4%. With continuous rainfall in domestic producing areas and rising tire production and exports, short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely [7] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,407 yuan/ton. With Iranian plants operating at full capacity and increasing arrivals, stable downstream profits and capacity utilization, and increasing inventory, methanol is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton. Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost side does not decline significantly [7] - **PVC**: On Wednesday, the price of PVC in East China increased. Supply remains high, demand is recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and their changes for various energy and chemical products including crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. on July 30 and 29, 2025 [10] 3.3 Market News - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Ukraine war within 10 - 12 days, the US will impose measures including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners. The US also warned other buyers of Russian oil [13] - EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory (expected 1.3 - million - barrel decrease), a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents historical price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][17][19] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It includes charts of the basis for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., showing their historical trends [33][34] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [48][49][53] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report shows charts of spreads between different products such as crude oil (internal - external market, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur), etc. [64][65][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the production profits of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][79] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market and many awards [81] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with multiple industry awards [82] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, winning several industry honors [83] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical futures and cash trading [84]