Core Viewpoint - The oil ETF (561360) rose over 1.3% on February 6, driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which is guiding the oil sector towards improved supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy is leading to a profound supply-side reform in the industry, which includes the elimination of outdated production capacity, restrictions on inefficient expansion, and encouragement for leading enterprises to pursue high-end and integrated layouts [1] - Despite an overall slowdown in industry growth, the market share and profitability stability of leading companies are expected to strengthen [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The advantages of integrated refining are becoming more pronounced, as leading companies are constructing a full industry chain from "crude oil to chemical products," significantly enhancing their cost control capabilities and resilience against price fluctuations of single products [1] - The global refining focus continues to shift towards China, with domestic leading companies enhancing their competitiveness through scale, technology, and industry chain support [1] Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which focuses on the entire oil and gas sector, covering upstream exploration, midstream transportation, and downstream sales [1] - The constituent stocks primarily consist of representative company securities in oil and gas extraction, refining, and energy services, reflecting the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas industry [1]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in oil prices, with significant capital inflow into oil ETFs, exceeding 2 billion yuan in the last 20 days [1] - It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate between 60-80 USD per barrel by 2026, which will support the petrochemical sector's growth [1] - The "Big Three" oil companies are anticipated to maintain high capital expenditures and enhance their natural gas market expansion, facilitating long-term growth through oil price cycles [1] Group 2 - Domestic high upstream capital expenditures are expected to boost the growth of oil service companies by increasing production and reserves [1] - The refining sector is nearing the end of capacity expansion, and industry supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve under refining constraints [1] - The polyester filament sector is experiencing limited new capacity additions, leading to structural optimization, while the large refining industry is expected to see continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes listed companies involved in exploration, extraction, refining, and sales of oil and gas [1] - The index components exhibit strong cyclical characteristics and are significantly influenced by international oil price fluctuations, serving as an important indicator of the energy sector's performance [1]

每日经济新闻 地缘政治催化，石油景气度持续修复，2月3日，石油ETF（561360）收涨近3%，资金抢筹，近20日净 流入超20亿元。 光大证券指出，全球战略资源博弈加剧，深海资源战略价值凸显。地缘局势紧张抬升油价，考虑到美国 页岩油边际成本高企、OPEC+平衡油价的诉求以及2026年原油需求预期向好，预计油价在60美元/桶～ 80美元/桶区间宽幅震荡，中高位运行为石化板块景气奠定基础。供给端，炼化扩能接近尾声，在"反内 卷"政策及"油转化"加速背景下，行业供需有望改善，迈向高质量发展。化纤方面，涤纶长丝新增产能 较少，产能结构性优化加速。整体来看，石化行业供需态势有望持续改善，景气度持续修复。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要涵盖石油、天然气勘探、开采及服 务等相关领域的上市公司证券，以反映油气产业链相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数成分股具有较 强的周期性特征，受国际油价波动影响较大，是跟踪能源行业表现的重要指标之一。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 东方证券指出，近期地缘冲突持续发生，市场担忧产油国地缘冲突或导致油气供给减少，布伦特油价震 荡，油服的景气度有望边际上升。目前全球油服景气度处于较低区间，全球活跃钻机数仍低于2019年以 前水平。国内受油价和处于"十四五"末期窗口影响，油气行业资本开支出现了阶段性收缩。在连续多年 的资本收缩后，行业开支有望向上恢复。国内油气对外依赖度仍高，预计国内油气资本开支有望逐渐走 向恢复。海外方面，美国政府持续推出政策推动油气开发，预计2026年海外的油服开支需求也有望回 暖。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198）。该指数主要覆盖石油、天然气的勘探、开采、 炼制及销售等环节的企业，选取在产业链上下游具有代表性的上市公司证券作为指数样本， ...

相关机构表示，北半球虽处传统需求淡季，但中国原油进口量同环比大增，美国炼厂开工率维持高位， 成品油开启补库，全球石油需求预期被上修，显示需求韧性。 需求端呈现出"东方引领，西方稳健"的格局。国际能源署（IEA）基于宏观经济前景改善，上调了 2025/2026年全球石油需求增量预测。需求增长主要由非OECD国家贡献，其中中国的表现尤为关键。 2025年12月，中国原油进口量同比大幅增长17.4%，环比增长10.0%，反映了新一批进口配额下发后补 库需求的释放。国内汽柴油社会库存亦处于补库阶段。 在西方，美国炼厂开工率在集中检修后已提升至近四年高位，成品油库存开始累积，表明下游消费依然 稳健。尽管欧洲需求相对疲软，但全球需求引擎正由新兴市场驱动。同时，美联储步入降息周期，有望 从金融层面提振对原油等大宗商品的需求预期，尤其是对利率敏感的亚非拉地区成品油消费。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要涵盖石油、天然气开采及相关服务 领域，选取相关上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气产业链上下游企业的整体表现。该指数成分股 具有较强的周期性特征，侧重于对能源行业的配置。 风险提示：提 ...

1月28日，石油ETF（561360）盘中涨超2%，近20日资金净流入超7.4亿元，地缘风险叠加极端天气，全 球供给扰动加剧。 相关机构表示，近期地缘政治紧张（伊朗、委内瑞拉）与美国极端寒潮共同冲击全球能源与化工品供 给，导致油价淡季反弹，并可能引发部分化工品供应短缺，为价格提供支撑。 供给侧正面临"宏观地缘"与"微观天气"的双重冲击。 宏观地缘层面，伊朗国内局势动荡与委内瑞拉出口骤降，再次引发市场对石油供应中断的担忧。伊朗占 据全球石油运输咽喉霍尔木兹海峡，任何不稳定都可能导致供应风险溢价上升。与此同时，OPEC+产 量连续回落，实际产量已低于配额，闲置产能处于高位，其"利重于量"的诉求为油价提供了约60美元/ 桶的长期底部支撑。 微观天气层面，近期美国遭遇的大规模冬季风暴是更直接、更即时的催化剂。得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸 作为美国重要的炼油与化工品生产基地，部分工厂因能源中断被迫停产。考虑到美国在全球炼油、乙 烯、醋酸、MDI、TDI等大宗化工品产能中占比显著（多在10%以上），此次寒潮导致的潜在供给减 量，可能对相关产品的全球供应稳定性和价格造成冲击。历史经验（如2021年"乌里"寒潮）表明，此类 极端天 ...

Group 1 - The oil ETF (561360) has seen a net inflow of over 540 million yuan in the past 20 days, indicating a potential bottoming out and rebound in oil prices [1] - Huatai Securities suggests that geopolitical premiums have led to a seasonal bottoming rebound in oil prices, with expectations for oil prices to rise in Q2 to Q3 of 2026 due to demand recovery and global inventory accumulation [1] - The forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 has been raised to 65 USD per barrel, with a long-term price support level around 60 USD per barrel due to the "more profit than quantity" demand from major oil-producing countries and marginal costs [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2025/2026, with continued recovery in petrochemical feedstock demand and jet fuel leading the growth in fuel products, particularly from non-OECD countries contributing to the entire increment in 2026 [1] - Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global crude oil supply, with risks of supply gaps if tensions escalate and affect transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which focuses on the performance of companies in the oil and gas sector, covering upstream exploration, midstream transportation, and downstream sales to reflect the market dynamics of the entire oil and gas industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The oil ETF (561360) has seen a net inflow of over 350 million yuan in the past 20 days, indicating active capital allocation and a solid long-term growth logic in the industry [1] - The oil industry is currently at the bottom of the previous price cycle and entering a new cycle, with the inventory cycle transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking [1] - Since the second half of 2025, the industrial product PPI and chemical raw material PPI have been continuously rebounding, suggesting that the price decline and destocking period is nearing its end, with an upward trend in the economic cycle gradually beginning [1] Group 2 - The long-term growth logic of the industry remains solid, with continuous optimization of capacity structure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-end and differentiated ethylene expansion while phasing out outdated capacity [2] - There is significant growth potential in demand, with traditional chemical product demand recovering steadily and emerging fields such as new energy, electronics, and high-end manufacturing driving an explosion in new material demand, providing long-term growth momentum for the industry [2] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which covers exploration, extraction, refining, and sales in the oil and gas sector, selecting high market capitalization and liquidity listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the oil and gas industry [2]

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 申万宏源证券指出，油运市场供给端约束确定性强，需求端存在黑油与合规油结构变化逻辑，中周期上 行态势确定性较强。2025年下半年即期运价上行后期租跟涨，反映船东对未来市场景气度持乐观态度。 油轮新签订单于2025年11月~12月放量，单月签单量较1月~10月均值大幅抬升，对应新造船价月度层面 回升。油轮与散货本轮周期以来未出现集中下单造船的情况，供需格局相对紧张，伴随运价中枢抬升与 船舶老龄化，替换需求预计持续释放。上游需求景气度方面，反内卷、化工景气周期对应油轮弹性。此 外，商品库存周期显示，2025年OPEC增产使原油进入补库周期。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油、天然气勘探、 开采、加工及相关服务等业务 ...

上涨核心逻辑：三重合力驱动行业景气上行 （1）全球供应格局重塑，产业重心向中国转移 海外产能加速退出：欧洲因高能耗、高成本及需求疲软，密集关停烯烃装置，2024年以来累计退出乙烯产能约450万吨/年；韩国拟削减270万-370万吨/年乙 烯产能，全球石化供应格局持续优化。 石油石化行业正处于旧格局重塑与新周期启动的关键过渡阶段，在全球供应格局调整、国内反内卷政策推进、炼化一体化深化等多重因素共振下，行业景气 度逐步上行，投资价值持续凸显。 石油基本面受提振，石油ETF（561360）涨超2%，覆盖石油全产业链，资金持续布局，近20日资金净流入超3亿元。 产业链协同优势凸显：国内石化企业加速炼化一体化布局，实现从原油加工到化工品生产的全链条覆盖，有效对冲油价波动风险，中国石油、恒力石化等企 业业绩表现出强韧性。 技术升级提升竞争力：轻烃裂解、煤制烯烃等多元化工艺路线快速发展，轻烃裂解制乙烯因成本优势，2019-2024年产能复合增速达22%，推动行业整体盈 利水平提升。 周期上行+结构升级，成长确定性强化，关注石油ETF（561360）投资机会 石油行业正处于上一轮价格周期底部、新一轮周期起步阶段，库存周期从被 ...