事件二：公司确定本次H 股发行的最终价格为每股248 港元（不包括1％经纪佣金、0.0027％香港证券及 期货事务监察委员会交易征费、0.00565％香港联交所交易费及 0.00015％香港会计及财务汇报局交易征 费），预计2026年2 月3 日在香港联交所挂牌上市。 盈利预测：通过港股上市以及与三林集团签署战略合作协议，公司有望加速推进全球化进程，打开海外 增长空间，进一步发挥规模化及产业链优势。我们预计2025-2027 年公司实现营业收入211/265/319 亿元 （ 同比+33%/+26%/+20% ）， 实现归母净利润45/58/70 亿元（ 同比+35%/+28%/+22%），对应PE 分别 为29X/23X/19X，维持"买入"评级。 事件一：1 月30 日，东鹏饮料集团与印尼华商巨头三林集团正式签署战略合作协议，双方将共同投资印 度尼西亚东鹏维生素饮料公司，负责在印尼建设生产基地及开展产品销售业务，项目总投资预计3 亿美 元。 H 股发行锚向海外，东南亚市场初具雏形。公司H 股招股说明书明确12%募集资金将用于拓展海外市场 业务，目前公司产品已出口至25个国家和地区，已在印度尼西亚、越南、马 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Food and Beverage Industry Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is currently facing pressure in cyclical demand, with performance uncertainty among leading companies in various segments, suggesting a cautious approach to investment [1][2] - The investment strategy for 2026 is divided into two main areas: segments with lower correlation to domestic demand and high-growth leading companies with overseas expansion or strong dividend capabilities, and cyclical sectors with high domestic demand [2] Key Recommendations - **Retail and Brand Companies**: Focus on retail channel companies like Wancheng and Mingming Hen Mang, and brand companies such as Yanjin and Weilong, which maintain their channel expansion logic [3] - **Beverage Sector**: Monitor opportunities for Dongpeng Special Drink, which is expected to benefit from long-term penetration rate improvements [3] - **High Dividend and Operational Improvement**: Recommend Qianhe Flavor and Yihai International, with Qianhe expected to have significant elasticity in 2026 and Yihai offering a 6% dividend yield at a 15x P/E ratio [5][12] Cyclical Sector Insights - The cyclical sectors, including liquor, beer, and restaurant supply chains, are currently at historical lows with pessimistic market sentiment. Investment in Moutai and Yanjing Beer is suggested for Q1 to Q2 2026 [6] - The liquor market is expected to remain stable during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in 2026, with a cautious approach recommended due to the current market dynamics [20][21] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is recommended to focus on high-growth segments such as snack retail stores and functional beverages like Dongpeng Special Drink, which are expected to see increased penetration rates [7][8] - Dongpeng's performance in shelf management and freezer coverage is noted as strong, with significant revenue growth potential [9] Profitability and Cost Structure - Dongpeng is expected to benefit from cost reductions in P, E, and T, with a projected sales increase from 30 billion to 40-50 billion in 2026, improving gross margins [10] - The yeast and health product sectors are anticipated to grow significantly in overseas markets, particularly in regions with rising populations and increasing staple food consumption [11] Investment Strategy for Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is influenced by policy and economic cycles, with a recommendation to invest in Moutai and other leading brands during low sentiment periods [22][24] - The expected EPS for the liquor sector in 2026 is projected to stabilize, with a valuation range of 20 to 25 times [27] Conclusion - The overall investment strategy for the food and beverage sector in 2026 emphasizes identifying companies with strong growth potential, reasonable valuations, and competitive advantages in branding, distribution, and product differentiation [29]

Core Insights - The beverage market is shifting towards energy drinks, with Dongpeng Special Drink emerging as a preferred choice for workers needing quick energy boosts, surpassing traditional options like coffee [1][3][19] - Dongpeng Beverage Group reported significant growth in revenue and profit, with a 34.13% increase in revenue to 16.844 billion and a 38.91% increase in net profit to 3.761 billion in the first three quarters of the year [1][3] Market Trends - The energy drink segment has seen a sales growth rate of 28.3%, surpassing ready-to-drink tea for the first time, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][4] - Dongpeng Special Drink has maintained the top sales position in China's energy drink market for four consecutive years, reflecting its successful penetration into urban markets [3][4] Consumer Behavior - The primary consumption scenarios for energy drinks include sports (31.21%), night shifts (30.12%), late-night studying (29.44%), and gaming (29.17%), highlighting a trend towards using these drinks for extended wakefulness [4][6] - Many consumers are turning to energy drinks due to their effectiveness in providing quick energy compared to coffee, which can lead to tolerance and reduced effectiveness over time [6][10] Competitive Landscape - The energy drink market is becoming increasingly competitive, with brands like Red Bull and new entrants targeting young consumers through various marketing strategies, including sponsorships of esports and other events [11][16] - Dongpeng Special Drink's marketing strategy includes product placements in popular media and sponsorship of events, which has contributed to its brand recognition and sales [11][13] Product Characteristics - Energy drinks are perceived as productivity tools rather than mere beverages, with consumers valuing their immediate energizing effects over traditional drinks like coffee [6][10] - Despite the popularity of Dongpeng Special Drink, concerns about its high sugar content have been raised, leading some consumers to mix it with other beverages to mitigate health impacts [10][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in energy drink revenue, with a 34.13% year-on-year increase in revenue to 16.844 billion yuan and a 38.91% increase in net profit to 3.761 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The company continues to deepen its market presence in Guangdong while optimizing its distribution system and business team outside the province, indicating potential for sustained growth in the national market [6] - The company's product structure shows significant growth, with the electrolyte drink "Bushi La" revenue increasing by 84.18% year-on-year, and other beverages growing by 94.53% [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 20.770 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.258 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.0% [4] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve to 45.1% by 2025 [4] - The company’s EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected to be 8.19 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 35.05 [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned as a leader in the energy drink sector, with a strong growth trajectory supported by cost-effective products that meet consumer demand and an expanding range of target demographics and scenarios [1] Industry Summary - Functional beverages are the fastest-growing sub-sector within the beverage industry, with significant potential for expansion as consumer demographics and usage scenarios continue to broaden [1] - The industry space is vast, and Dongpeng is expected to leverage its product cost-effectiveness and digital advantages to reinforce its leading position [1] Company Summary - Dongpeng Beverage is actively expanding its product line beyond its flagship Dongpeng Special Drink, with strong momentum in new offerings such as Dongpeng Water and Guozhi Tea [1] - The company's recent listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange is anticipated to facilitate its expansion into overseas markets, potentially creating new avenues for market growth [1] - As a leading beverage company in the A-share market, Dongpeng is well-positioned for robust growth, prompting an initial "buy" rating from analysts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese energy drink market has reached a scale of over 100 billion yuan and is still far from saturation, with significant growth potential driven by product innovation and changing consumer perceptions [3][10]. Industry Overview - The energy drink market in China has evolved from foreign imports to domestic brands, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the charge with its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which has been popular for over a decade [1][3]. - The market is characterized by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.7% from 2019 to 2024, projected to reach 180.7 billion yuan by 2029 [10]. Product Innovation - Energy drinks are defined as beverages that provide energy and contain specific nutrients, with Dongpeng Special Drink containing ingredients like taurine, lysine, inositol, caffeine, and various vitamins to combat fatigue [3][4]. - Recent innovations include sugar-free versions and formulations targeting specific consumer needs, such as brain fatigue relief for professionals [7][8]. Consumer Trends - The consumption of energy drinks is expanding beyond traditional laborers to include a broader demographic, such as young professionals and fitness enthusiasts, reflecting a shift in consumer perception from a mere energy booster to a versatile beverage [6][10]. - The top three consumption scenarios for energy drinks are sports (31.21%), night shifts (30.12%), and late-night studying (29.44%), indicating a diversification of usage occasions [8]. Market Potential - The low penetration rate of energy drinks in China, with an average annual consumption of only 5.3 liters per person in 2024, suggests substantial room for growth as consumer demand increases [10]. - The younger generation, particularly Generation Z, is becoming a significant consumer group, driven by their active lifestyles and engagement in activities that align with energy drink consumption [10][11]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of over 10.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit of over 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth since its A-share listing in 2021 [9].

Summary of Dongpeng Beverage Conference Call Industry Overview - The Southeast Asian energy drink market benefits from demographic dividends and rising disposable incomes, with Vietnam's market size reaching 10.8 billion RMB and a CAGR of 12% from 2014 to 2024, outpacing China's growth rate [2][3] - The energy drink market in Southeast Asia is highly concentrated, with a CR3 of 83.3%, dominated by Red Bull (42.3%), while local brand Number One is gaining market share through differentiated packaging and cost-effectiveness [2][6] - Indonesia has the largest soft drink market (73.9 billion RMB), but the energy drink market is developing slowly (1.84 billion RMB) due to cultural influences and low caffeine demand [2][10] - Cambodia is one of the fastest-growing countries for energy drinks in Southeast Asia, with a CAGR of 9.3% from 2014 to 2024, driven by the Steam brand's low-price strategy and esports sponsorships [2][13] - The Southeast Asian sports drink market is valued at 1.49 billion USD (approximately 10.9 billion RMB), with a low CAGR of 0.6% over the past decade, but Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand show faster growth [2][14] Key Insights and Arguments - The Southeast Asian energy drink market has significant growth potential due to a young population, rising disposable incomes, and changing consumption habits [3] - Vietnam's energy drink market is the largest in Southeast Asia, with a labor force participation rate of 56.9%, providing a solid consumer base [6] - Dongpeng Beverage aims to penetrate the Southeast Asian market, particularly in Vietnam, through sports sponsorships, trade shows, and partnerships with distributors, with plans to invest in a factory in Indonesia [4][16] - The company targets a long-term revenue goal of over 20 billion RMB for its specialty drinks, with expectations of reaching 8 to 10 billion RMB in revenue from its hydration products [4][18] Competitive Landscape - In Vietnam, the energy drink market is changing, with Pepsi's Steam and local brand Number One gaining significant market shares, while Red Bull's share increased by 13 percentage points from 2015 to 2024 [9] - Indonesia's energy drink market is small and stagnant, with a CR3 of 53.5%, where Red Bull's share is declining, and local brands are gaining traction [10][11] - Thailand's energy drink market is stable, with a CR3 of 84%, and leading brands are expanding into other Southeast Asian countries [12] Opportunities and Challenges - Dongpeng Beverage has ample growth opportunities in Southeast Asia, particularly among the young labor force and through local retail channels [5] - The company plans to leverage its high cost-performance products and localized supply chains to achieve breakthroughs in the market [4][16] - The competitive landscape is not fully established, with local brands lacking strong financial backing, providing an opportunity for Chinese brands to gain market share [17] Financial Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage's net profit margin is currently at 21%, with potential for improvement as new products scale up [19] - The company aims for a long-term market capitalization of 190 to 210 billion RMB, supported by a projected revenue scale of at least 40 billion RMB [19]

Core Viewpoint - The energy drink market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with significant contributions from brands like Dongpeng and Red Bull, driven by changing consumer needs and effective marketing strategies [5][7][39]. Group 1: Market Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.37%, with its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generating sales of 8.36 billion yuan [5][11]. - Red Bull's revenue for 2024 reached 21 billion yuan, surpassing its initial targets, indicating a resurgence in its market performance [7]. - The energy drink market in China is projected to reach a scale of 111.4 billion yuan by 2024, making it the fastest-growing segment within the soft drink category [10][11]. Group 2: Historical Development - The energy drink category was introduced to China in 1995 with the entry of Red Bull, which dominated the market for over two decades [19]. - Numerous domestic brands emerged, initially imitating Red Bull's product and packaging, leading to a market share of over 80% for Red Bull [23]. - Dongpeng's innovative packaging and strategic targeting of blue-collar workers helped it gain market share, especially after Red Bull's market stagnation following a trademark dispute in 2015 [25][26]. Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Trends - The marketing strategies for energy drinks have evolved to target younger consumers, with brands sponsoring sports and esports events to engage with this demographic [34][39]. - The primary consumption scenarios for energy drinks now include sports (31.21%), night shifts (30.12%), and late-night studying (29.44%), reflecting a shift from traditional blue-collar consumers to a broader audience [40][42]. - The trend towards functional and cost-effective products continues to drive the energy drink market, appealing to a diverse range of consumers seeking quick energy boosts [39][42].

Core Viewpoint - The energy drink market in China is experiencing significant growth, with major brands like Dongpeng and Red Bull reporting substantial revenue increases, indicating a robust demand for functional beverages that enhance energy and alertness [4][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of over 10 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.37%, with its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generating sales of 8.36 billion yuan [4]. - Red Bull's revenue for 2024 reached 21 billion yuan, exceeding its initial targets, while Monster Beverage Corporation reported a 40.1% year-on-year increase in net sales in China for Q1 2024 [6][9]. - The energy drink segment accounts for approximately 70% of the functional beverage market, which has been the fastest-growing category in China's soft drink sector over the past five years [9][12]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The energy drink market in China has evolved since Red Bull's entry in 1995, with numerous domestic brands emerging and initially mimicking Red Bull's product and packaging [15][18]. - Dongpeng's rise can be attributed to its focus on blue-collar workers, competitive pricing, and innovative packaging, which helped it capture market share from Red Bull [18][20]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with brands like Dongpeng and others employing aggressive marketing strategies, including sponsorship of sports events and targeted promotions to attract younger consumers [21][22]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The consumption of energy drinks is increasingly common among various demographics, including blue-collar workers, office employees, and students, with the top three consumption scenarios being sports (31.21%), night shifts (30.12%), and late-night studying (29.44%) [26][28]. - The demand for energy drinks is driven by the fast-paced lifestyle of modern consumers, leading to a broader acceptance and habitual consumption of these beverages [28].

Core Viewpoint - The energy drink market in China is experiencing significant growth, with major players like Dongpeng and Red Bull achieving impressive revenue increases, indicating a robust demand for functional beverages that enhance energy and alertness [3][5][31]. Group 1: Market Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.37%, with its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generating sales of 8.36 billion yuan [3][10]. - Red Bull's revenue for 2024 reached 21 billion yuan, surpassing its initial targets, while Monster Beverage Corporation reported a 40.1% year-on-year increase in net sales in China for Q1 2024 [5][6]. - The energy drink segment accounts for approximately 70% of the functional beverage market, which is the fastest-growing category in China's soft drink sector [7][34]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The energy drink market in China has evolved since Red Bull's entry in 1995, with numerous domestic brands emerging and competing for market share [14][19]. - Dongpeng's rise can be attributed to its strategic focus on blue-collar workers, competitive pricing, and innovative packaging that differentiates it from Red Bull [20][21]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with brands like Yili and Dali Foods launching their own energy drinks and employing aggressive marketing strategies to capture market share [24][26]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The primary consumers of energy drinks have expanded beyond traditional blue-collar workers to include office workers, students, and fitness enthusiasts, driven by the need for quick energy boosts [31][34]. - The top three consumption scenarios for energy drinks are sports (31.21%), night shifts (30.12%), and late-night studying (29.44%) [31]. - The trend towards functional and cost-effective beverages is likely to sustain the growth of the energy drink market, as more consumers seek affordable options to alleviate fatigue [34][35].