2025年对全球投资者而言堪称丰收之年。全球股市整体上涨约30%，其中美国股市自4月触底后强势反弹，累计涨幅超过50%。更引人注目的是黄金的表现 ——全年涨幅突破60%，仅次于1979年创下的127%纪录。 这一轮"股金双牛"行情，既体现了AI叙事带来的增长预期，也反映了在全球债务高企、货币政策转向背景下，投资者对避险资产和多元化配置的重视。2025 年全球资产的强势表现，离不开AI和新能源这两大关键动力。这两大"新质生产力"主线，不仅成为资本市场核心增长极，也引领了全球资金对高质量、可持 续资产的重新定价。 虽然2025年为2026年奠定了良好基础，但2026年的风险与波动仿佛也更加值得规避，明年的"剧本"怎么走？AI、新能源将会有什么发展？ 【2026我们这么看经济】第一谈聚焦趋势，看看搜狐号财经大V评审团@证券之星、@和讯网、@证券市场周刊、@投资时间网、@华尔街见闻、@蓝鲸新 闻的专业视角。 @华尔街见闻：一份来自华尔街的最新展望报告颠覆了传统认知，指出2026年美国经济面临的最大威胁可能源自金融市场本身。 根据投资研究机构BCA Research的最新展望，2026年投资者面临的核心风险已经发生反转 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Hold" rating for the computer industry, indicating a relative performance within -5% to +5% compared to the benchmark index [44]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of three core elements for AI applications: data, models, and interfaces, which are crucial for evaluating the potential of AI applications [14][18]. - The competition for AI entry points is intensifying, with major players like OpenAI launching new products such as the ChatGPT Atlas browser, which integrates AI capabilities directly into the browsing experience [22][27]. - The demand for computing power is surging, highlighted by Anthropic's partnership with Google to deploy 1 million TPU chips, aiming for over 1GW of computing capacity by 2026 [30][28]. Summary by Sections Custom Agent Insights - The report discusses the evolution of AI agents, noting that successful applications require specialized data, enhanced model capabilities, and open interfaces for interaction with external systems [14][18]. - Examples include the integration of real-time data in travel agents like Fliggy, which improves the accuracy and timeliness of recommendations [16][17]. AI Browser Developments - OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser allows users to interact with AI directly within the browser, providing personalized memory capabilities and the ability to perform tasks based on user input [22][26]. - This development signifies a strategic move to establish a core operating system for internet navigation, potentially replacing traditional browsers [27]. Computing Power Demand - The report highlights the increasing need for computing resources driven by advancements in AI, with Anthropic's collaboration with Google representing a significant investment in cloud computing [30][28]. - The introduction of the Doubao-Seed-3D-1.0 model by ByteDance is expected to further elevate computing demands by enabling high-quality 3D model generation from single images [33][31]. Companies to Watch - The report identifies several companies to monitor in the computing power sector, including Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and others, as well as AI application developers like Alibaba and Tencent [34].

Group 1 - DeepSeek has announced the update of its official App, web version, and mini-program to DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, resulting in a significant reduction in API costs by over 50% for developers [1] - The cost of AI inference computing power has been decreasing due to advancements in AI large models and improvements in the performance and cost-effectiveness of inference chips, with hardware costs dropping approximately 30% annually and energy efficiency improving by about 40% [1] - The continuous decline in costs for large models, represented by DeepSeek, supports the commercialization of AI applications and enhances the efficiency of distilled models [1] Group 2 - The rapid iteration of large models and enhanced inference capabilities are creating opportunities for customized Agent applications, allowing users to tailor agents based on personal data and needs [2] - Companies like Cambricon and Huawei Ascend have announced their compatibility with DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp and have open-sourced the vLLM-MLU inference engine [2] - Companies such as Fanwei Network, Kingsoft Office, and Dingjie Smart are involved in the development of Agent and AI applications [3] Group 3 - Huawei Ascend has achieved software and hardware adaptation with companies like Softcom and Changshan Beiming [4] - Jiuqi Software plans to upgrade its Nüwa GPT in early 2025, integrating deeply with mainstream large models and launching various intelligent applications [4] - Jiuqi Software's AI distillation technology is similar to that of DeepSeek, indicating a trend in the industry towards efficient model optimization [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The emergence of ChatGPT Pulse marks a significant shift towards proactive and personalized AI interactions, transforming ChatGPT from a passive responder to an active assistant [1][18] - Alibaba Cloud is positioning itself as a full-stack AI service provider, aiming to develop a custom agent platform that supports the evolution towards Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) [2][19] - The report highlights the potential for custom agents to serve as personal work and life assistants, particularly in the financial sector, enhancing efficiency and decision-making [6][30] Summary by Sections ChatGPT Pulse Release - ChatGPT Pulse, released on September 25, 2025, acts as a super personal assistant, providing users with tailored content based on their interactions and preferences [1][14] - Users can manage the research content and connect their Gmail and Google Calendar for more contextual updates, enhancing the personalization of the service [14][18] Alibaba Cloud's ASI Development Path - Alibaba's strategy involves three phases towards ASI: emergence of intelligence, autonomous action, and self-iteration [19][20] - The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with a plan to increase global data center energy consumption by ten times by 2032 compared to 2022 [24] Custom Agent Outlook - The report outlines various applications for custom agents in the financial sector, including personal research knowledge bases, intelligent mass messaging assistants, and personalized work assistants [6][32] - The potential for users to create and monetize their custom agents through platforms like MuleRun is also discussed, indicating a shift towards AI as a tradable digital asset [43][30] Industry Trends - The report notes a significant growth trend in the computer industry, with projections indicating a 70% increase from September 2024 to September 2025 [4] - The rapid iteration of large models and their increasing reasoning and tool usage capabilities are expected to drive the adoption of custom agents [6][30]