Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that despite a short-term slowdown in core e-commerce growth, Alibaba's investment logic is supported by robust growth in Alibaba Cloud [1][4]. Alibaba Cloud Performance - Alibaba Cloud is experiencing strong industry demand, with management stating that current demand exceeds supply. The three-year capital expenditure guidance of 380 billion RMB may be insufficient to meet current customer needs [1][5]. - The third fiscal quarter (Q4) revenue for Alibaba Cloud is expected to grow by 35%, with a further increase to 36% in the fourth fiscal quarter (next Q1) [1][5]. - New AI applications, such as Quark AI Assistant and Tongyi Qianwen, are anticipated to further enhance user adoption rates [1][5]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for the second fiscal quarter reached 39.824 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, with an adjusted EBITA of 3.604 billion RMB and a profit margin of 9.0%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's previous expectations [5]. E-commerce Business Outlook - The core e-commerce business is expected to see a slowdown in growth to 7.5% due to a weak macro environment [1][6]. - Online retail sales growth further slowed to 5% in October, with package volume decreasing from low double-digit growth in September to 8% in October, which is expected to negatively impact GMV and core e-commerce revenue [6]. - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group in the second fiscal quarter was 10.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 76.3%, primarily due to rapid business investments [6]. - The losses in the Cainiao business are expected to narrow to 25 billion RMB in the third fiscal quarter, aligning with market expectations [1][6]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its expectations for Cainiao's losses down from 37 billion RMB to 25 billion RMB, indicating better-than-expected performance [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses a new phase in product communication strategies, where brands leverage B2B approaches to create curiosity and engagement before reaching consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Case Studies - The Gaode "sealed building" incident exemplifies how ambiguous information can generate buzz and speculation, effectively engaging industry insiders and media before a broader audience [2][3]. - Quark's "C Plan" represents a strategic positioning experiment within Alibaba's ecosystem, aiming to establish a new entry point for AI assistant branding [4][5]. - Anthropic's "Zero Slop Zone" event in New York serves as a cultural experiment, encouraging reflection in a fast-paced AI environment, which successfully attracted attention from creators and media [8][10]. Group 2: Communication Strategy - The article highlights a shift from merely outputting content to designing communication structures that provoke discussion and signal trends [7][20]. - The "B-driven C" model emphasizes the importance of engaging industry influencers and creators to amplify brand messages, rather than relying solely on direct consumer outreach [12][13]. - The Artisan AI campaign challenges societal norms about work, using provocative messaging to ignite conversation and engagement within the tech community [15][18]. Group 3: Key Actions for Brands - Brands should identify key nodes within their target audience, such as industry media and creators, who can effectively drive discussions and trends [24][25]. - Creating signals that provoke curiosity is essential for initiating engagement, whether through unique events or unconventional messaging [26][27]. - Controlling the communication rhythm is crucial to maintain interest without crossing into controversy, ensuring that the narrative remains positive and engaging [28][30].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Hold" rating for the computer industry, indicating a relative performance within -5% to +5% compared to the benchmark index [44]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of three core elements for AI applications: data, models, and interfaces, which are crucial for evaluating the potential of AI applications [14][18]. - The competition for AI entry points is intensifying, with major players like OpenAI launching new products such as the ChatGPT Atlas browser, which integrates AI capabilities directly into the browsing experience [22][27]. - The demand for computing power is surging, highlighted by Anthropic's partnership with Google to deploy 1 million TPU chips, aiming for over 1GW of computing capacity by 2026 [30][28]. Summary by Sections Custom Agent Insights - The report discusses the evolution of AI agents, noting that successful applications require specialized data, enhanced model capabilities, and open interfaces for interaction with external systems [14][18]. - Examples include the integration of real-time data in travel agents like Fliggy, which improves the accuracy and timeliness of recommendations [16][17]. AI Browser Developments - OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser allows users to interact with AI directly within the browser, providing personalized memory capabilities and the ability to perform tasks based on user input [22][26]. - This development signifies a strategic move to establish a core operating system for internet navigation, potentially replacing traditional browsers [27]. Computing Power Demand - The report highlights the increasing need for computing resources driven by advancements in AI, with Anthropic's collaboration with Google representing a significant investment in cloud computing [30][28]. - The introduction of the Doubao-Seed-3D-1.0 model by ByteDance is expected to further elevate computing demands by enabling high-quality 3D model generation from single images [33][31]. Companies to Watch - The report identifies several companies to monitor in the computing power sector, including Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and others, as well as AI application developers like Alibaba and Tencent [34].

经济观察报记者发现，10月23日，夸克App对话助手上线。用户可在夸克App主页点击助手按钮或向右划动进入该模式。 根据应用商店更新日志，夸克AI助手模式可无限使用通义Qwen最新模型。不同于普通聊天对话AI，它与夸克App原生功能深度融合，用户在对话中不仅可 进行复杂问答，还能直接调用搜索、AI相机、拍照搜题、AI写作、翻译、电话等功能，实现从提问到行动的一体化体验。 一位接近夸克人士称，"C计划"在阿里巴巴内部的确存在，由夸克核心产品团队与通义实验室的研发、工程人员联合推进，项目资源优先级较高，夸克对话 助手被视为"C计划"的首个阶段性成果。 市场上流传多种解释：有说"C"代表Chat（聊天）或是阿里To C战略（面向C端），也有人认为取自经典游戏Pac-Man（吃豆人）的象征。截至发稿，夸克方 面未对此进行回应。 经济观察报记者 周悦 阿里巴巴集团旗下AI应用夸克的"C计划"正式浮出水面。 随着AI助手逐渐融入学习、办公、创作等更多场景，两款产品的用户边界开始交织，新的"交火地带"也在形成。相比更偏向职场效率及娱乐应用的豆包，夸 克则在教育和搜索领域更具优势。 在投资机构A16z最新发布的全球Top10 ...

ChatGPT继续稳居首位，但谷歌通过多产品矩阵策略大幅缩小差距，其通用助手Gemini在网页端获得ChatGPT约12%的访问量，位列第二。中国AI产品在全球市场表现强劲，阿里 巴巴旗下夸克AI助手跃升至网页端第9位，字节跳动豆包位列第12位。 作者 | 赵 颖 编辑 | 硬 AI 谷歌通过域名分离策略，首次让旗下AI产品能够被独立追踪和排名。Gemini在网页端位居第二，访问量达到ChatGPT的12%左右，在移动端的月活用户数更是接 近ChatGPT的一半，显示出强劲的增长势头。 全球AI消费级应用格局正趋向稳定，头部竞争却愈发激烈。 最新发布的全球Top 100生成式AI消费应用榜单显示，ChatGPT继续稳居首位，但谷歌通过多产品矩阵策略大幅缩小差距，其通用助手Gemini在网页端获得ChatGPT 约12%的访问量，位列第二。 中国AI产品在全球市场表现强劲，阿里巴巴旗下夸克AI助手跃升至网页端第9位，字节跳动豆包位列第12位。榜单数据显示，50个网页端应用中有3个主要服务中国 用户的产品跻身前20，另有7个中国开发的产品主要面向海外市场。 谷歌首次以独立域名形式在榜单中占据四个席位，展现其AI产 ...

Core Insights - The global landscape of consumer AI applications is stabilizing, but competition among leading players is intensifying. ChatGPT remains the top application, while Google's Gemini has significantly narrowed the gap, capturing approximately 12% of ChatGPT's web traffic, ranking second [1][4]. Group 1: AI Application Rankings - ChatGPT continues to lead the global Top 100 generative AI consumer applications, with Gemini from Google following closely in second place [1]. - Alibaba's Quark AI assistant ranks 9th, while ByteDance's Doubao is 12th, showcasing strong performance of Chinese AI products in the global market [1][11]. - Google's product matrix strategy is evident as it occupies four distinct positions in the rankings, with AI Studio entering the top 10 and NotebookLM at 13th [1][7]. Group 2: Mobile Application Landscape - The competition in mobile applications is particularly fierce, with Gemini's monthly active users nearing half of ChatGPT's [2]. - Grok, developed by X platform, has rapidly gained over 20 million monthly active users since its launch, ranking 23rd in mobile applications [2][15]. - Chinese-developed mobile applications dominate the rankings, with an estimated 22 out of 50 applications created by Chinese teams [2][14]. Group 3: Growth of Chinese AI Products - Chinese AI products are increasingly globalized, with several applications primarily serving overseas markets, including DeepSeek and SeaArt [11][14]. - Among products serving Chinese users, over 75% of traffic for Alibaba's Quark and ByteDance's Doubao comes from China [11]. Group 4: Intensifying Competition Among General Assistants - While ChatGPT maintains its lead, competitors like Grok are rapidly closing the gap, with Grok's user base growing significantly after the release of its new model [15]. - Meta's AI assistant has seen slower growth, ranking 46th on the web and failing to make the mobile top 50 [15]. Group 5: Emergence of "Ambient Programming" - AI-assisted programming tools are emerging as a new growth area, with Lovable and Replit entering the main rankings, indicating a rapid rise in AI application generation [16]. - User retention data suggests that this trend is sustainable, with some platforms showing over 100% revenue retention among users in the U.S. [19].

Core Insights - The global landscape of consumer AI applications is stabilizing, but competition among leading players is intensifying. ChatGPT remains the top application, while Google's Gemini has significantly narrowed the gap, capturing approximately 12% of ChatGPT's web traffic [1][4]. Group 1: Market Positioning - ChatGPT continues to lead the global ranking of generative AI applications, with Gemini in second place, showcasing Google's effective multi-product strategy [1][4]. - Chinese AI products are performing strongly in the global market, with Alibaba's Quark AI assistant ranking 9th and ByteDance's Doubao at 12th. Three products primarily serving Chinese users are in the top 20, and seven Chinese-developed products target overseas markets [1][11][14]. Group 2: Google's Product Matrix - Google has successfully established a matrix of AI products, with Gemini ranking second on the web and close to half of ChatGPT's monthly active users on mobile. AI Studio, aimed at developers, has entered the top 10, while NotebookLM ranks 13th [4][7]. - Google Labs, which hosts various AI experimental projects, ranks 39th, with a notable traffic increase of over 13% following the release of the video model Veo 3 [10]. Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The competition among general assistants is heating up, with Grok from X platform showing remarkable growth, accumulating over 20 million monthly active users since its launch. Grok's usage surged nearly 40% after the release of its new model [15]. - Meta's AI assistant has seen slow growth, ranking 46th on the web and failing to make the mobile top 50, while DeepSeek has experienced a significant decline in traffic [15]. Group 4: Emerging Trends - AI-assisted programming tools are emerging as a new growth area, with Lovable and Replit entering the main rankings, indicating rapid growth in AI application generation [16]. - User retention data suggests that this trend is sustainable, with a leading "ambient programming" platform in the U.S. showing over 100% revenue retention rate within months of user registration [19].