Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness in styrene remains unchanged, but recent futures prices are greatly affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and it is more prudent to enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Styrene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 6800 - 7600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 85.8% [2] 3.2 Styrene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation, short 25% of styrene futures (EB2508) at 7400 - 7300 yuan/ton; sell 50% of call options (EB2508C7500) at 90 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if styrene rises [2] - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, to prevent cost increases, buy 50% of styrene futures (EB2508) at 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton; sell 75% of put options (EB2508P7100) at 110 - 150 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if styrene falls [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The near - term strength and long - term weakness pattern of styrene fundamentals remains, but the futures price is significantly affected by macro factors. It is advisable to wait and enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Geopolitical unrest causes oil price fluctuations; approaching the June paper - cargo delivery, the near - term basis of styrene is firm [4] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - As of June 23, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory was 17.1 tons, a 11.76% MoM increase; styrene port inventory was 8.5 tons, a 28.21% MoM increase. The port inventories of both pure benzene and styrene increased this week [4] - The previously shut - down pure benzene and styrene plants are gradually resuming production, and the peak maintenance period has passed. The maintenance plans of some pure benzene plants originally scheduled for early July have been postponed, leading to a continuous increase in near - term supply [4] - The US Department of Commerce announced on June 12 that a 50% import tariff on household appliances containing steel parts would be imposed from June 23, pressuring the terminal demand for styrene [4] 3.6 Styrene Basis and Industrial Chain Spreads - Data shows the basis differences between different regions and futures contracts of styrene and the spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain on June 24 and June 23 [6] 3.7 Styrene Daily Report - Industrial Chain Prices - Presents the prices of various products in the styrene industrial chain on June 24, June 23, and June 17, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, pure benzene, styrene, and related downstream products, along with their daily changes [6][7]

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7000-7800 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2508 | 卖出 | 25% | 7600-770 0 | | | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 跌 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金 ...

苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | 苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2508 | 卖出 | 25% | 7350-745 0 | | | 跌 | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯上涨还可以锁定 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the second round of Sino-US economic and trade talks took place, causing significant macro-level disturbances to the market price, which trended upward with fluctuations. Based on current news, the positive impacts of this round of talks have mostly been realized, and styrene is gradually returning to its fundamental situation. Styrene port inventories remain relatively low, resulting in tight spot liquidity and a strong near-month basis. In the medium to long term, styrene supply is expected to recover while demand enters a slow season, presenting a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price forecast for styrene is in the range of 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile (3-year) of 85.8% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about styrene price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,350 - 7,450 yuan/ton. Additionally, selling call options (EB2507C7500) with a 50% ratio at a range of 60 - 90 can reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and purchases are to be made based on orders, it is advisable to buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton. Selling put options (EB2507P7200) with a 75% ratio at a range of 30 - 50 can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The market price is greatly affected by macro factors during the Sino-US economic and trade talks, but styrene is gradually reverting to its fundamentals. Port inventories are low, spot liquidity is tight, and the near-month basis is strong. In the long run, supply will recover and demand will enter a slow season, showing a near-strong and far-weak pattern [3]. Positive Factors - As of June 9, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (-10.21%) from the previous period, indicating another round of destocking at the port [4]. - The raw material inventory of downstream styrene factories is low, and the restocking demand provides some support for the styrene price, with a strong basis for the June contract [4]. - Supported by macro-level positives and restocking by downstream factories, the price of pure benzene has risen. This week, Sinopec raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6,000 yuan/ton [8]. Negative Factors - As of June 9, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 149,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.76%. European supplies are expected to arrive in mid to late June, and the import volume of pure benzene in June is still expected to be high [9]. - The previously shut-down units of pure benzene and styrene are gradually resuming operation, and the peak maintenance period has passed, leading to an increase in supply [9]. - There is news that the US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports, alleviating the supply contradiction at the raw material end [9]. - As of June 5, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 191,400 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons (12.16%) from the previous period [9]. Market Data - The daily change in the styrene basis shows different trends for different contracts, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. - The prices of various products in the styrene and pure benzene industrial chains, including crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, have different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [11][12]. - The profits of different products in the styrene downstream industry, such as EPS, HIPS, GPPS, and ABS, also show different trends [12].

戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | 苯乙烯风险管理日报 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7350-745 0 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯上涨还可以锁定现货卖出 | EB2507 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - Tariff cuts and emergency plant shutdowns have led to the valuation repair of styrene, with the styrene-pure benzene spread widening to a new high for the year. Driven by profits, some maintenance plants have returned ahead of schedule, and there is an expectation of increased supply. However, it will take time for the increased supply to result in port inventory accumulation. Currently, the May styrene paper cargo is at the end of the delivery period, and the short-covering demand of short sellers has strongly supported the May basis. In the short term, prices are supported, but in the medium to long term, styrene is about to enter the off-season of demand, and prices are expected to decline [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for styrene is in the range of 7,000 - 7,800 yuan/ton. The current 20-day rolling volatility is 29.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over the past three years is 85.5% [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished product inventory worried about styrene price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio and enter the market at 7,200 - 7,300 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (EB2507C7400) with a 50% hedging ratio and enter at 80 - 110 yuan [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio and enter the market at 7,050 - 7,150 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio and enter at 90 - 120 yuan [2]. Core Contradictions - Tariff cuts and emergency plant shutdowns have led to styrene valuation repair, and the styrene-pure benzene spread has widened to a new high for the year. Driven by profits, some maintenance plants have returned ahead of schedule, increasing supply. However, it will take time for the increased supply to lead to port inventory accumulation. Currently, the May styrene paper cargo is at the end of the delivery period, and short-covering demand has strongly supported the May basis. In the short term, prices are supported, but in the medium to long term, styrene is about to enter the off-season of demand, and prices are expected to decline [3]. Bullish Factors - As of May 22, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 186,400 tons, a decrease of 26,200 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 12.32%, indicating a significant decline in factory inventory [4]. - The raw material inventory of current styrene downstream factories is low, and the replenishment demand provides some support for styrene prices [5]. Bearish Factors - As of May 26, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 143,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.72%. Starting from late May, previously traded European pure benzene has been arriving in Asia, and there are recent market rumors of new European-Asian pure benzene orders, so the subsequent import volume of pure benzene is expected to remain high [5]. - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, and many downstream plants have planned maintenance in May and June, resulting in a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7]. - As of May 26, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 74,600 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a 44.19% increase [7]. - The 450,000-ton styrene plant of Shenghong and the 720,000-ton styrene plant of Li Huayi are planned to restart soon, increasing styrene supply [7]. - Styrene is gradually entering the off-season of demand [7]. Price and Spread Data - Various price and spread data for styrene, pure benzene, and related products on May 27, 2025, compared with previous days, including paper cargo prices, spot prices, basis, and production margins, are provided in detail [9][10][11].

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7200-7800 | 29.94% | 86.2% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7400-750 0 | | 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若糖价上涨还可以锁定现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro - atmosphere has improved, and with unplanned maintenance, the futures market has rapidly rebounded. In the medium - to - long - term, the price of styrene is still dragged down by pure benzene and is expected to decline. The future market trend depends on whether there is a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there are new export orders for textile and clothing (end - products of caprolactam) and white goods (end - products of styrene). It also depends on the improvement of gasoline blending demand in the US and the impact of the shutdown and production cuts of its disproportionation units on China's pure benzene imports [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7400 - 8000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 94.8% [2] - For inventory management when product inventory is high and worried about price decline, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, and sell call options (EB2507C8000) with a 50% hedging ratio at a range of 80 - 120 [2] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and aiming to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7450 - 7550 yuan/ton, and sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio at a range of 50 - 80 [2] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward movement of styrene is due to improved macro - atmosphere and unplanned maintenance, while the long - term downward pressure comes from pure benzene. Future trends depend on downstream demand improvement after tariff reduction and the situation of US gasoline blending demand and its impact on pure benzene imports [3] 利多解读 - As of May 12, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.67 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons (-17.23%) from the previous period, indicating continuous inventory drawdown and tightened spot liquidity [4] - The smooth progress of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks and the significant tariff reduction in the first - round consultation have improved market sentiment [4] - On Tuesday, Hengli's cracking unit had a sudden failure, leading to the early maintenance of its 720,000 - ton styrene unit for a month, intensifying the shortage of styrene. There are also rumors that Zhejiang Petrochemical's styrene unit may start maintenance a few days earlier [4] 利空解读 - A large amount of European pure benzene is expected to arrive in Northeast Asia from late May, and the pure benzene imports from May to June are expected to remain high [7] - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, with many units of caprolactam and aniline in downstream industries planning maintenance in May, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7] - The invisible inventory in the benzene industry chain remains high [7] - The downstream 3S products have limited price - increasing power, and there is no obvious improvement in terminal orders after the tariff reduction, resulting in limited enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials [8] Styrene Basis and Price Changes - The basis of East China - EB05 decreased from 43 to 39 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB06 increased from 251 to 329 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 78 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB07 increased from 413 to 486 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 73 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB08 increased from 530 to 598 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 68 yuan/ton [8] - The prices of various products in the styrene and related industries on May 16, 2025, showed different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week, such as the price of pure benzene in the East China market decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the price of styrene in the East China market decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [9][10]

source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7100-7700 | 35.25% | 94.8% | 苯乙烯风险管理日报 3、下午开盘后市场开始传恒力裂解装置突发故障，紧急停车导致其下游72万吨苯乙烯装置需要提前检 修，检修时长为一个月，该装置原计划是在6月下旬检修，若消息属实将加剧苯乙烯缺货程度。 【利空解读】 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成 ...