Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Rapeseed System Industry Daily Report 2026 - 01 - 26 [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract): Rapeseed oil is 9345 yuan/ton (up 354), rapeseed meal is 2269 yuan/ton (up 34); ICE rapeseed is 651.8 CAD/ton (up 4.8), rapeseed is 5539 yuan/ton (down 2) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 90 yuan/ton (up 62), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 33 yuan/ton (up 10) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 297957 lots (up 36075), rapeseed meal is 968068 lots (down 46185) [2] - Net long positions of top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 8917 lots (up 11662), rapeseed meal is - 248949 lots (up 24735) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 625 sheets (down 500), rapeseed meal is 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9950 yuan/ton (up 200), average price is 10056.25 yuan/ton (up 200); spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton (up 30) [2] - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton (unchanged); oil - meal ratio is 3.87 (up 0.04) [2] - Basis of rapeseed oil main contract is 605 yuan/ton (down 154), basis of rapeseed meal main contract is 281 yuan/ton (down 4) [2] - Spot price of grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8710 yuan/ton (up 100); spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1240 yuan/ton (up 100) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton (up 100); spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 920 yuan/ton (up 100) [2] - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3120 yuan/ton (up 40); spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570 yuan/ton (up 10) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.27 million tons (up 3 million tons), annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Total rapeseed import volume for the month is 5.56 million tons (up 5.36 million tons), import cost of rapeseed is 7863.56 yuan/ton (up 77.73) [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons (unchanged), weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0% (unchanged) [2] - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is 22 million tons (up 5 million tons), import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 23.82 million tons (up 2.35 million tons) [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons (unchanged), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 25.25 million tons (down 2.15 million tons), rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 14.1 million tons (down 1.6 million tons) [2] - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.2 million tons (up 0.1 million tons), rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 27 million tons (up 1.3 million tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 (delivery volume) is 0.55 million tons (up 0.37 million tons), weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons (unchanged) [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly feed production is 3008.6 million tons (up 30.7 million tons), monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 5738 billion yuan (down 319 billion yuan) [2] - Monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons (up 60.6 million tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 17.76% (down 0.62%), implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal is 17.75% (down 0.63%) [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.14% (up 0.08%), 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 13.31% (up 0.05%) [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil is 14.76% (up 0.28%), implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil is 14.77% (up 0.29%) [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.95% (down 0.84%), 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.77% (down 0.44%) [2] Group 3: Industry News - On January 23 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher again, with a weekly increase of over 10 CAD/ton. The March rapeseed futures contract rose 4.50 CAD, settling at 651.70 CAD/ton [2] - There is a high expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting pressure on international soybean prices. However, US soybean export data has improved, and the US soybean crushing industry has remained strong to meet the growing demand for soybean oil in biofuels [2] Group 4: Core Views Rapeseed Meal - Globally and in Canada, the rapeseed supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which continues to restrain market prices. The uncertainty about the full implementation of the China - Canada trade agreement due to US pressure on Canada has pushed rapeseed - related products to strengthen [2] - After a continuous decline in the early stage, rapeseed meal has rebounded from its low level recently. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2] Rapeseed Oil - Currently, domestic oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price. The basis of rapeseed oil remains at a high level [2] - Affected by the US pressure on Canada and the US President's remarks, rapeseed oil has seen increased positions and rising prices. In the short term, fluctuations have intensified, and a bullish approach is recommended [2] Group 5: Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, and the implementation of the China - Canada trade agreement [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish allocation for rapeseed products in 2026 [4][72] Core Viewpoints - The global rapeseed supply is expected to turn loose in the 2025/26 season, with a significant year-on-year increase in production. However, the initial inventory of major exporting countries is low, and the supply pressure may be postponed. [4][18][19] - The import demand for global rapeseed products is not optimistic due to factors such as the significant recovery of EU rapeseed production, uncertain China-Canada economic and trade relations, and uncertain US biodiesel policies, which will increase the export pressure on major exporting countries, especially Canada. [4][72] - In 2026, the supply of rapeseed products in China is uncertain due to policy influence. Attention should be paid to key time nodes and market drivers after major events. There is a risk of an increase in imports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in the future. [4][72] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Futures Trend Review Rapeseed Meal - In the first stage (January - end of March 2025), it followed soybean meal and was stronger than soybean meal. The anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed meal and the expected supply shortage in March pushed up the price, but the impact was short-lived. [9] - In the second stage (early April - end of August 2025), it followed soybean meal in a volatile and slightly upward trend. Concerns about trade policies and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans affected the price. The anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also had a short-term impact. [10] - In the third stage (early September 2025), it followed soybean meal in a weak and volatile trend. The increase in domestic soybean meal inventory and the recovery of soybean purchases from the US affected the price. [11] Rapeseed Oil - In the first stage (January - early March 2025), it was the weakest among the three major oils due to sufficient supply and no event-driven factors. [14] - In the second stage (mid-March - early June 2025), it was relatively strong due to the expected supply tightening after the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and the increase in ICE rapeseed futures prices. [14] - In the third stage (mid-June - early September 2025), it followed the overall oil sector in an upward trend, driven by the optimistic outlook for global biodiesel consumption and the expected supply shortage of palm oil. [15] - In the fourth stage (since mid-September 2025), it followed the oil sector in a downward trend, but the uncertainty of supply and the strong basis supported its performance. [15] 2. Main Supply and Demand Contradictions Analysis of Rapeseed Products 2.1 Global Rapeseed Supply: Significant Increase in Production, Supply Pressure May Be Postponed - The global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 6.27 million tons year-on-year, with the EU's production increasing by more than 3 million tons. The initial inventory is expected to decrease by 2.12 million tons, and the effective supply will increase by 4.15 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.2%. [18][19] - **Canada**: The initial inventory in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The new rapeseed export is not ideal at the beginning of the season, and the export is expected to decrease by at least 2.5 million tons year-on-year. The domestic crushing volume is expected to remain high, but the inventory pressure may gradually appear from December to the end of March. [23][25][29] - **Australia**: The production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.233 million tons, an increase of 837,000 tons year-on-year. The export is expected to increase from 5 - 5.1 million tons to 5.8 - 5.9 million tons. China may account for about 50% of its exports. [32][33] - **Russia and Ukraine**: The rapeseed production in the Black Sea region reached a record high in the 2025/26 season. Russia's rapeseed production continues to increase, and its rapeseed oil and rapeseed exports may increase. Ukraine's rapeseed production has decreased for two consecutive years, and its rapeseed export has decreased this year. [38][41][43] 2.2 Global Rapeseed Product Demand - The global demand for rapeseed products is not optimistic, mainly due to the uncertainty of trade demand. Attention should be paid to the progress of China-Canada economic and trade negotiations and the final plan and details of the US biodiesel policy. [45] - **EU**: The rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season has significantly recovered, and the rapeseed import demand is expected to decrease year-on-year. The absolute price and relative cost-effectiveness of rapeseed oil will determine the import demand. The import volume is expected to be 5.7 - 6.1 million tons. [46][48][54] - **US**: The import demand for rapeseed oil in 2026 may increase slightly. It is related to the US biodiesel policy, and the current policy details are uncertain. [56] - **China**: The import of rapeseed products in 2026 is uncertain, and the supply may turn loose. The import of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase, and the import of Canadian rapeseed depends on the progress of China-Canada economic and trade negotiations. The import of rapeseed oil is expected to increase steadily, and the import of rapeseed meal may increase significantly. [62] 3. Summary of Main Contradictions and Strategy Outlook - The global rapeseed supply is expected to turn loose in the 2025/26 season, and the supply pressure will gradually appear in 2026. The import demand is not optimistic, which will increase the pressure on major exporting countries. [71][72] - The supply of rapeseed products in China in 2026 is uncertain due to policy influence. Attention should be paid to key time nodes and market drivers. There is a risk of an increase in imports. [72] - It is recommended to pay attention to the bearish allocation opportunities for rapeseed products in 2026. [72]

Core Insights - The event "Stabilizing Enterprises and Securing Agriculture: Futures Services for SMEs in the Vegetable Oil Sector" was successfully held in Guangzhou, focusing on opportunities and challenges in the vegetable oil industry [1] - Over 170 representatives from the vegetable oil industry gathered, indicating significant industry interest and engagement [1] Group 1: Expert Insights and Strategies - The event featured industry experts discussing market supply and demand, providing practical strategies for risk management [2] - Key presentations included an analysis of domestic and international vegetable oil market trends and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Experts emphasized the importance of using futures tools for risk management and enhancing industry collaboration to navigate market changes [2][3] Group 2: Roundtable Discussions - A roundtable forum addressed critical issues in the vegetable oil sector, focusing on opportunities and challenges amid global trade tensions [3] - Experts advised SMEs to proactively use futures tools to manage price volatility and suggested a combination strategy of "small steps and focused phases" to mitigate future uncertainties [3] - Discussions highlighted the need for vigilance regarding potential cost increases in packaging oil raw materials in 2026 [3] Group 3: Commitment to Health and Industry Development - Yihai Kerry Group showcased its dual commitment to "serving the real economy and empowering health," aligning with national health initiatives [4][5] - The company has a history of innovation in healthy eating, continuously expanding its product offerings to meet health demands [5] - The event served as a platform for SMEs to connect, share knowledge, and enhance confidence in navigating the complex market environment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The initial ruling of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds has led to a significant increase in domestic canola meal and oil prices, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to rising import costs and strong domestic demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures market for oilseeds has shown a strong performance, particularly in canola meal, with the RM2509 contract experiencing a daily increase of over 6% [1]. - The initial ruling determined a dumping margin of 75.8% for Canadian canola seeds, which will increase the cost of imports starting August 14 [2]. - Canada accounts for over 90% of domestic canola seed imports and over 70% of canola meal imports, making the ruling impactful on supply [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The current peak demand for canola meal coincides with the busy season for aquaculture, creating a strong demand-supply dynamic [3]. - The supply of canola seeds is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the ongoing anti-dumping investigation, which could further support prices for canola meal and oil [2][3]. - Domestic canola meal inventory has decreased from approximately 900,000 tons to 630,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that canola meal prices will maintain a strong upward trend, while the price potential for canola oil may be less pronounced due to increased imports from other sources [3][4]. - The reliance on Canadian canola seeds is significant, and unless imports from Australia normalize, the price of canola meal is expected to continue rising [3][4]. - The competition from soybean meal, which remains a primary protein source, may limit the long-term price increases for canola meal [4].