Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel**: Unilateral observation; wait for the opportunity to enter the spot-futures positive spread [8] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Temporarily observe [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuating, industrial customers should do appropriate selling hedging [8] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Prices temporarily stabilized, with small increases of 10 - 20 yuan on Thursday. Trade volume increased significantly. Future steel production is expected to decline, and in the early stage of production cuts, it may suppress furnace materials, while in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance. Due to the large basis, it is not advisable to short on the disk. It is recommended to reduce exposure through physical positions [2] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by external macro factors, market sentiment declined, and the prices of the two silicons followed the adjustment. In the short term, they may trade based on fundamentals. Currently, there are still concerns in the fundamentals, with high supply, large inventory removal pressure, and weak downstream demand. Prices may fluctuate under pressure [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to a high level, and coal mine destocking slowed down. Spot coking coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, falling steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coal and coke may ease. The market is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it is recommended to observe unilaterally, and in the long term, go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [4] - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure and prices are falling. The supply is within a reasonable range. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, molten iron production continued to decline this week. Iron ore port inventories will continue to rise. With weak supply - demand, shorting unilaterally is a good choice [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 6, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3102.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 11.00 yuan (0.36%); HC2605 closed at 3265.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 7.00 yuan (0.21%); etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3037.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 12.00 yuan (0.40%); HC2601 closed at 3256.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 7.00 yuan (0.22%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: On November 6, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 65.00 yuan/ton; the coil - to - rebar spread was 219.00 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.91; etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel**: On November 6, the prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3200.00 yuan/ton, 3210.00 yuan/ton, and 3260.00 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30.00 yuan, 50.00 yuan, and 0.00 yuan [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, coking coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The port trade offer for coke was 1560 (-), and the coking coal price index was 1392.6 (+8.7). For Mongolian coal, the market was cold, with prices such as Ganqimaodu Port: Mongolian 5 raw coal at 1165 (-) [4] - **Iron Ore**: The supply was within a reasonable range. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, molten iron production continued to decline, and port inventories were expected to rise [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black metal market shows mixed trends. The futures market is generally stronger than the spot market, with the basis steadily shrinking. There is no strong rebound driver for the black metal sector in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure range of coal and coke price rebounds on the cost side [5]. - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are continuously improving, with the spot market gradually strengthening and the futures market resonating upward. However, the spot performance is still weak, and attention should be paid to the cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities brought by the high water level of the coke futures [6]. - The short - term sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, and their prices are mainly volatile, generally following the trend of steel [7]. - The overall situation of industrial products has improved, and the iron ore price has risen. Short - term market sentiment is positive, and short positions in iron ore can be temporarily avoided [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices and Changes**: On June 27, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3005 yuan/ton with a rise of 34 yuan (1.14%), HC2601 at 3127 yuan/ton with a rise of 35 yuan (1.13%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2995 yuan/ton with a rise of 29 yuan (0.98%), HC2510 at 3121 yuan/ton with a rise of 29 yuan (0.94%), etc. [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads, such as RB2510 - 2601 at - 10 yuan/ton with a change of - 5 yuan, and the spreads/price ratios/profits, like the coil - to - rebar spread at 126 yuan with a change of - 4 yuan, are also presented [2]. **Spot Market** - **Steel Products**: Shanghai rebar was priced at 3090 yuan/ton with a rise of 40 yuan, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3200 yuan/ton with a rise of 30 yuan, etc. [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade quasi - first - grade coke was quoted at 170 (+30), and the coking coal price index was 937.3 (+0.1). In the Mongolian coal market, prices showed some changes, such as Ganqimaodu Port's Mongolian 5 raw coal at 731 (+7) [6]. **Analysis by Product** - **Steel Products**: The futures are stronger than the spot, and the basis is shrinking. Unilateral trading can be on the sidelines, and attention can be paid to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. Short - term long positions in the coil - to - rebar spread can be considered [5][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are improving, the spot and futures are strengthening, but the spot is still weak. Speculative short positions should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers can participate in coke selling hedging [6][9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term sentiment has improved, and prices are volatile, following steel. Low - price options can be bought at low prices [7][9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has risen, and short positions can be temporarily avoided in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the "production cut" driving force has cooled down, and the disk profit has declined. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement stage. It is recommended to reduce the single - side exposure and hold a light position during the May Day holiday [4]. - For coking coal and coke, some steel mills plan to lower the base price of top - charged coke, and coking coal auctions continue to weaken. It is recommended to short coal and coke on rallies in May and hold a light position during the holiday [5]. - For ferroalloys, the production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron supply and demand are tightening, while manganese - silicon is still in an oversupply state. It is recommended that industrial customers control risks and silicon - iron can be tried to go long at low prices [7]. - For iron ore, the "small essays" dominate the disk trading logic again. It is not recommended to hold long iron ore orders under the production - limit expectation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On April 29, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3128 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.29%), HC2601 at 3238 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan, - 1.04%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan, - 1.21%), HC2510 at 3210 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.26%), etc. [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: On April 29, RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (unchanged), HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), etc. [2] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On April 29, the coil - rebar spread was 110 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), the rebar - ore ratio was 4.37 (down 0.03), etc. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: On April 29, Shanghai rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), etc. [2] Specific Commodities - **Rebar**: The "production cut" speculation has cooled down, prices and disk profits have declined. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Some steel mills plan to cut the coke price, coking coal auctions are weak. The fundamentals may weaken in May, and shorting on rallies is recommended [5]. - **Ferroalloys**: The production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron is in a better fundamental state, and it is recommended to try to go long at low prices [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The "small essays" affect the market. High - level hot metal provides some support, but long positions are not recommended under the production - limit expectation [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Friday night's restart of production cut expectations led to simultaneous increases in steel futures and spot prices, as well as margin on the trading floor. Currently, the output of listed steel products is rising, while consumption has weakened month - on - month, mainly in building materials and sheet products. Attention should be paid to the rapid narrowing of the hot - cold spread and its potential impact on the weakening demand for hot - rolled coils. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, but it is not prominent at present. Market sentiment has improved compared to the previous period. In the short term, prices will fluctuate and consolidate. The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate between the flat - rate and off - peak electricity costs of electric furnaces. Considering significant policy disturbances, caution is advised for unilateral participation. A strategy to focus on the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the far - end contracts can be considered [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - In April, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. The price of Shanghai rebar (32mm) was 3250 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the end of March, while the price of Tangshan rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coils, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the end of March, and the price of Tianjin hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan/ton [3][4]. - As of April 24, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 3.13 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 9.01 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 41.4 tons. The apparent demand was 926.25 tons, down 22.39 tons month - on - month. As of April 25, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3069 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 121 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was about 71 yuan/ton. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (Fubao's calculation) was about 3300 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3140 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar at flat - rate electricity was about - 200 yuan/ton, and at off - peak electricity was about - 40 yuan/ton [5]. - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared to 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared to 2023. From January to March 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and the cumulative crude steel output was 259 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - As of April 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 91.6%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points from April 18, and the daily average pig iron output was 244.4 tons, an increase of 4.23 tons [51]. - As of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 33.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 53.8 tons, a decrease of 0.52 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27.6 tons per day, an increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 16 tons, a decrease of 0.75 tons. The daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 51.4 tons, an increase of 4.95 tons. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 527.8 tons, an increase of 6.97 tons or 1.3% [5]. - This week, the original sample rebar output was 229.11 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 202.4 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons, and the short - process output was 26.71 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons [66]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of April 24, the apparent demand for five major steel products was 926.25 tons, a decrease of 22.39 tons month - on - month [5]. - The real - estate 30 - city sales high - frequency data shows that the real - estate market continues to be sluggish, which has a negative impact on steel demand [78]. - The national cement mill operating rate has declined. The average national cement mill operating rate was 49.04%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points from the previous week, and the decline rate widened by 1.49 percentage points, indicating insufficient demand [77]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of April 24, the total inventory of five major steel products decreased. The factory inventory decreased by 9.01 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 41.4 tons [5]. - This period, the original sample rebar factory inventory was 193.73 tons, a decrease of 6.67 tons, the social inventory was 508.6 tons, a decrease of 24.16 tons, and the total inventory was 702.33 tons, a decrease of 30.83 tons [82]. - This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 317.5 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons. The apparent demand was 324.36 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 6.86 tons, the social inventory remained flat, and the total inventory decreased by 6.86 tons [85]. 3.2.4 Price - In April, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. The price of Shanghai rebar (32mm) was 3250 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the end of March, while the price of Tangshan rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coils, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the end of March, and the price of Tianjin hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan/ton [4]. - As of April 27, the hot - cold spread in Shanghai was 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton [92]. 3.2.5 Export - As of April 25, the FOB export price of China was 457 US dollars, and the export profit was + 6.6 US dollars, a decrease of 4.1 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 294.99 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons [95].