Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. soybean futures prices is attributed to expectations of China purchasing U.S. soybeans, marking a significant shift after a period of zero imports from the U.S. [3][5] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - On October 30, U.S. soybean futures reached a peak of $11.14 per bushel, the highest in 15 months, closing at $11.09 on October 31 [3]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for China to resume soybean purchases from the U.S. is a key driver behind the price increase [5][6]. - Following a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump, there is optimism regarding the stabilization of U.S.-China relations, which could positively impact global soybean trade [5]. Group 2: Chinese Purchasing Behavior - There is speculation that China may agree to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, with potential procurement actions expected in November and December [6]. - The Chinese market's demand for soybeans is influenced by domestic supply conditions, with analysts noting that increased imports could stabilize domestic soybean supply [6][10]. - The Chinese soybean purchasing strategy may involve a mix of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, depending on price competitiveness [7]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean and Meal Demand - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by high inventory levels in the livestock sector [8][10]. - Recent data indicates that China's industrial feed production has shown significant year-on-year growth, reflecting robust demand for soybean meal [8]. - As of October 24, major oil mills in China reported a decrease in soybean inventory and an increase in soybean meal inventory, indicating shifting market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Price Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts express mixed views on the future of soybean prices, with some predicting a bullish trend while others caution against potential downward pressure if imports increase [6][11]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has hindered the release of updated agricultural reports, contributing to uncertainty in the market [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations that any recovery in U.S. soybean prices may be limited by global supply conditions, particularly from South America [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, soybean meal fluctuated and declined. The USDA report in September showed higher-than-expected yield, production, and inventory estimates for US soybeans, with a neutral to bearish impact. The overall dry and rainy conditions in the US soybean-producing areas were unfavorable for the growth of late-sown soybeans but beneficial for the harvest of early-sown soybeans. The US soybean harvest continued to progress, but US soybean exports remained weak. The Conab report in Brazil indicated that the estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 177.67 million tons. Multiple bearish factors pressured US soybeans to fluctuate lower. In China, the sufficient arrival of soybeans in September supported domestic supply, and the oil mill operating rate remained at a high level. Meanwhile, the recent downstream replenishment was sluggish, resulting in a loose supply and demand situation for soybean meal in the spot market, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills continued to accumulate. The decline in US soybeans led to a weak cost of imported soybeans. Coupled with the large-scale procurement of Argentine soybeans and soybean meal in China in September, the gap in China's soybean meal for the far month decreased, and the soybean meal price fluctuated lower. It is still necessary to pay attention to the Sino-US tariff negotiation situation in the future. China's soybean meal is still bearish, but the short-term decline may be limited, and the Dalian soybean meal will continue the bottoming trend. The strategy is to wait and see temporarily [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on September 30, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1000.75 cents per bushel, down 52.25 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.96%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan per ton, down 127 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 4.16% [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - The US soybean balance sheet is neutral to bearish, with the planting area increased by 200,000 to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 0.1 to 53.5 bushels per acre, the production increased by 9 million to 4.301 billion bushels, the crush increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the exports decreased by 20 million to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased by 10 million to 300 million bushels [10][17]. - The US soybean-producing areas are experiencing high temperatures and little rain. In the next two weeks, there will be a lack of rainfall and high temperatures in the US soybean-producing areas. As of October 3, about 37% of the US soybean-producing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year. As of the week of September 28, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, compared with 9% in the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 20%. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared with 61% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year [10][20]. - US soybean exports are relatively low. As of the week of September 18, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 724,000 tons, compared with 923,000 tons in the previous week. The net sales of soybeans for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, compared with 2,000 tons in the previous week [10][25]. - Brazilian soybean premiums are oscillating at high levels. The estimated exports of Brazilian soybeans in October are 7.12 million tons, an increase of 2.69 million tons year-on-year. As the Brazilian soybean inventory decreases, the near-month soybean premiums in Brazil are oscillating at high levels [10][30]. - **Supply** - In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 609,000 tons from July and an increase of 135,000 tons or 1.11% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 73.312 million tons, an increase of 2.833 million tons or 4% year-on-year [10][33]. - **Demand** - In September, the soybean meal crush decreased to 9.359 million tons, a decrease of 18.37% month-on-month and an increase of 789,100 tons or 9.21% year-on-year. The soybean meal transactions decreased to 3.1313 million tons, a decrease of 35.44%, and the pick-up increased to 4.4047 million tons, an increase of 9.97% [10][40]. - **Inventory** - In the 39th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills across the country increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unfulfilled contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, an increase of 252,500 tons or 3.63% from the previous week and an increase of 905,100 tons or 14.38% year-on-year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons or 4.86% from the previous week and a decrease of 37,300 tons or 3.04% year-on-year [10][45]. 3.3 Spread Tracking - The report mentions the basis and spreads of soybean meal, including the regional basis of soybean meal (Jiangsu), the oil-meal ratio, the 1-5 spread of soybean meal, and the soybean meal-rapeseed meal spread, but specific data and analysis are not provided [46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, with short - term market sentiment being weak. It is recommended to observe cautiously and pay attention to changes in the premium and discount quotes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%. Due to less rainfall in the production areas recently, the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline, and there may be room for a subsequent reduction in US soybean yield per unit [8]. - In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start decreasing, but the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to remain abundant in the fourth quarter. Currently, the purchasing progress for November - January is slow, and the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, with the source of supplementation yet to be determined [8]. Demand - Short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry in breeding is expected to support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply [8]. - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of soybean meal downstream has increased [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year. It is expected to remain in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term [8]. - The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [8]. Market Performance - Affected by Argentina's zero - tariff on soybean exports, domestic purchasing has increased. With the pressure of hedging and speculative positions, the soybean meal futures market has dropped significantly today [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, driven by strong domestic demand and favorable supply reports, is expected to stabilize above 1000 cents per bushel, with potential for further increases [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - The July soybean crush volume in the U.S. reached 195.699 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 191.59 million bushels, indicating robust domestic demand [1] - The increase in soybean demand is primarily attributed to rising U.S. soybean oil consumption, with July soybean oil production reported at 2.348 billion pounds, showing growth both month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The favorable demand conditions are supported by the recent comments from Trump urging China to purchase U.S. soybeans, alongside the positive supply-demand report [1] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Despite external support for soybean meal costs, domestic demand remains weak, with daily demand peaking at the beginning of August primarily driven by forward contracts for next year [1] - As of August 15, the daily transaction volume for soybean meal in August was 27.5 thousand tons, reflecting a lack of significant spot demand [1] - It is anticipated that the national average price for soybean meal will fluctuate between 3100 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton by the end of August [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The优良率 of US soybeans has risen to 68%, and the weather in the production areas will be suitable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [8]. - From the perspective of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level. The inventory accumulation rate is slower than expected, but it is expected to accelerate in late June [7][8]. - Overall, the sharp rise in crude oil and the US biodiesel policy are favorable for oils and fats, suppressing the performance of beans. Under the current Sino - US policy, the premium is relatively firm, and the import cost of far - month soybean meal provides support. With the improvement of demand, the inventory accumulation rate of soybean meal is slow. It is expected that soybean meal inventory will accelerate in late June. The spot basis and near - month contracts remain strong. Before the release of the August USDA planting area report, the market is expected to be volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - Different regions have different basis values for 43% soybean meal spot (relative to the main contract). For example, in Dalian it is 5, in Tianjin it is - 65, in Zhangjiagang it is - 125 etc. [6] - There are also differential changes in basis for different regions of rapeseed meal spot, and various spread data such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [6][7] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1802, with a change of - 4. There are also data on soybean CNF premium and import soybean futures gross profit for different Brazilian shipment months [7] - Domestic soybean inventory in ports and major oil mills has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level. The feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days have increased slightly but are still at a low level [7][8] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is over 10 million tons. The current purchase progress for June is 100%, July is 95.9%, August is 55.2%, but the purchase for September and later is slow [7] - **Demand**: From the perspective of livestock inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase steadily before September; poultry inventory remains high. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, downstream transactions have increased, and提货 has improved [8]