大豆贸易
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【BOYAR监测】饲料原料市场每日简评【12.5】
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 11:49
来源:市场资讯 (来源:博亚和讯) 美国大豆弱势反弹 豆粕现货维持稳定 1、CBOT豆类合约行情 周四CBOT大豆期货收高,呈现技术性反弹,交易商等待更多有关中国采购美国大豆的迹象。 3、豆粕现货市场 今日国内豆粕现货价格维持稳定。中国贸促会与美国大豆出口协会当天在华盛顿举行座谈,美国大豆出 口协会首席执行官苏健表示,大豆贸易可以成为美中两国合作、改善关系、朝着正确方向前进的良好示 范。截至10月30日当周,美国2025/26年度大豆净销售量为124.85万吨,销往中国23.2万吨。美国财政部 长贝森特表示,中国正在按正确节奏履行双边贸易协议义务,包括采购1200万吨美国大豆,预计所有采 购将在2026年2月底前完成。随着12月至明年1月上半月的关键天气窗口临近,巴西大豆的最终产量规模 取决于年末至明年初的降雨分布与高温情况,任何持续性干旱或极端天气都可能引发市场波动。部分分 析机构下调巴西大豆产量预估,整体预估区间在1.72-1.78亿吨。调查显示,基于港口装运计划,12月份 巴西大豆出口量估计为281.4万吨。截至上周四,巴西2025/26年度大豆播种面积已达预期面积的89%, 低于去年同期91%的水平。 ...
超六艘装载美国大豆的货轮正加速运往中国
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 12:21
此外,过去周末已有一船大豆启航,成为自5月以来的首船此类货物。 另据国内行业机构数据显示,12月2日美国大豆进口成本价为4537元,巴西大豆进口成本价为3950元, 阿根廷大豆进口成本价为3917元。 从国家粮油信息中心公布的数据来看,截止11 月 28 日,全国主要油厂进口大豆库存 700 万吨,同比上 升 153万吨,较过去三年均值上升 233 万吨;豆粕库存 118 万吨,同比上升 34 万吨,较过去三年同期 均值上升 54 万吨。 (来源:每日粮油) 来源:每日粮油 船运数据显示,在经历数月贸易停滞之后,目前至少有6艘船舶在墨西哥湾格尔夫波特港口码头装货, 总计装载量至少达32万吨大豆,目的地均为中国。 ...
豆粕:关注中方采购美豆情况,盘面震荡,豆一,关注中美贸易情绪,盘面震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 11:21
Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View - In the next week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be continuously paid to China's purchases of US soybeans. For soybean meal, there is currently no other driving force, and the focus is on China's purchases of US soybeans. Additionally, it is reported that China and the US are about to sign a soybean trade agreement, so the progress of this event should be monitored. For soybeans, the spot price is stable. The increase in state - reserve purchase points and the slight increase in the purchase price of some protein soybeans have a positive impact on the spot market. The disk situation depends on Sino - US trade sentiment [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents 1. Futures Price Changes Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - US soybean futures prices rose slightly. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of November 28, the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 0.95%, while the main January 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 0.38%. - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were slightly stronger, and soybean futures prices were neutral. In the week of November 28, the main m2601 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.06%, and the main a2601 contract of soybeans had a weekly decrease of 0.02% [1]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - China continued to purchase US soybeans, which was positive for US soybeans. From November 24 to 28, China purchased a total of about 435,000 tons of US soybeans (all for delivery in the 2025/26 season). - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased slightly week - on - week, with a neutral impact. As of the week of November 28, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average margin of disk crushing increased slightly week - on - week. - The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was still slow, with a slightly positive impact. As of the week of November 20, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 81%, compared with 71% in the previous week and about 86% in the same period last year. Irregular rainfall in most soybean plantations in the Brazilian Cerrado limited the sowing progress and raised concerns about yields. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans was slow, with a slightly positive impact. As of the week of November 19, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 24.6%, compared with about 35.8% in the same period last year. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America: In the next two weeks (November 28 - December 12), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be low, and the temperature will be "partially high (November 28 - December 2) and mostly normal"; precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be basically normal (high at the end of November and decreasing in early December), and the temperature will fluctuate around the average. Overall, the weather in the producing areas is not a major issue, with a neutral impact [1]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Situation Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 120,000 tons, compared with about 240,000 tons in the previous week. - **Pick - up volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 190,000 tons in the previous week. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 10 yuan/ton, compared with about 3 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 153 yuan/ton in the same period last year. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 14% and a year - on - year increase of about 49%. - **Crushing volume**: The weekly crushing volume of soybeans decreased, and it is expected to decrease next week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly crushing volume of domestic soybeans was about 2.2 million tons (2.33 million tons in the previous week and 1.89 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 61% (64% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (November 29 - December 5), the expected crushing volume of soybeans in oil mills is about 2.14 million tons (1.66 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 59% (47% in the same period last year) [2][3]. 4. Domestic Soybean Spot Market Situation Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - **Soybean price**: The soybean price was stable. The net - grain purchase price of soybeans in some parts of Northeast China was in the range of 3,960 - 4,080 yuan/ton, the net - grain purchase price in some parts of Inner China was in the range of 4,860 - 5,060 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans in the sales area was in the range of 4,460 - 4,680 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **State - reserve purchase**: The number of state - reserve purchase points continued to increase, and the purchase price of some protein soybeans was raised, which had a positive impact on the spot market. Two new state - reserve purchase points were added on November 28, and the purchase price of some protein soybeans increased. - **Farmer and trader behavior**: Farmers in the Northeast production area were reluctant to sell, and traders had slow buying and selling. Many grass - roots farmers showed obvious reluctance to sell, waiting for price increases. Most traders reported slow procurement and slow sales. - **Market demand**: The demand in the northern sales area increased, while that in the southern area was stable. In the northern market, the sales of Northeast soybeans were acceptable due to the increase in demand for soy products caused by the drop in temperature. In the southern region, the sales were slow, and there were no new signs of demand for terminal soy products in many places [4].
豆粕周报:关注美豆采购进展,连粕震荡调整-20251110
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 02:51
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Bean Meal Weekly Report" [1] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - Last week, CBOT soybean January contract rose 2.25 to close at 1117.25 cents per bushel, up 0.2%; bean meal 01 contract rose 37 to close at 3058 yuan per ton, up 1.22%; South China bean meal spot rose 20 to close at 3000 yuan per ton, up 0.67%; rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 151 to close at 2539 yuan per ton, up 6.32%; Guangxi rapeseed meal spot rose 120 to close at 2630 yuan per ton, up 4.78% [2][5] - Optimistic sentiment on US soybean export trade cooled, and the external market oscillated at a high level; the crop prospects in South America were relatively positive. Import of US soybeans retains a 10% additional tariff, with 10% extra cost compared to Brazilian soybeans. Currently, the CNF arrival prices of Brazilian and US soybeans are basically the same, and Brazilian soybeans are more cost - effective. Although old - crop soybeans are decreasing, a certain amount of US soybeans still need to be purchased. The China - Canada relationship has warmed up, but relevant agreements have not been reached. Import of Canadian rapeseed still maintains high tariffs, and the subsequent arrival volume of rapeseed will decrease. Coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is depleted, and rapeseed meal inventory continues to decline, with supply tightening and rapeseed meal rising sharply [2][5] - The weather conditions in the Brazilian production area are suitable for crop growth and development; the Argentine production area is relatively dry, which is conducive to accelerating the sowing progress. The crop prospects in South America are good. China resumed the qualification of 3 enterprises for soybean export to China on November 10. Wait for the USDA's crop yield report based on survey data this week. There is a gap in domestic soybean procurement for the December - January shipping period. It is expected that the Dalian bean meal will oscillate and adjust in the short term [2][9] Group 3: Market Data - CBOT soybean: On November 7, it was 1117.25 cents per bushel, up 2.25 from October 31, with a 0.20% increase [3] - CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans: On November 7, it was 486.00 dollars per ton, down 7.00 from October 31, with a - 1.42% decrease [3] - CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans: On November 7, it was 496.00 dollars per ton, up 3.00 from October 31, with a 0.61% increase [3] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk: On November 7, it was - 144.09 yuan per ton, up 62.42 from before [3] - DCE bean meal: On November 7, it was 3058.00 yuan per ton, up 37 from before, with a 1.22% increase [3] - CZCE rapeseed meal: On November 7, it was 2539.00 yuan per ton, up 151 from before, with a 6.32% increase [3] - Bean meal - rapeseed meal price difference: On November 7, it was 519.00 yuan per ton, down 114 from before [3] - Spot price in East China: On November 7, it was 3020.00 yuan per ton, up 40 from before, with a 1.34% increase [3] - Spot price in South China: On November 7, it was 3000.00 yuan per ton, up 20 from before, with a 0.67% increase [3] - Spot - futures price difference in South China: On November 7, it was - 58.00 yuan per ton, down 17 from before [3] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of November 2, 2025, the estimated US soybean harvest rate was 91%, with an estimated range of 88% - 94%, compared with 94% in the same period last year. StoneX lowered the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.9 bushels to 53.6 bushels and expected the 2025 US soybean output to be 4.303 billion bushels, lower than the previous expectation of 4.326 billion bushels [6] - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.15 dollars per bushel, compared with 2.33 dollars per bushel in the previous week. The 48% protein bean meal spot price in Illinois was 322.48 dollars per short - ton, compared with 299.18 dollars per short - ton in the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 48.32 cents per pound, compared with 49.54 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.05 dollars per bushel, compared with 10.48 dollars per bushel in the previous week [6][7] - As of the week of November 1, 2025, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% in the previous week, 53.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 54.7%. In Parana state, the 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 79% of the expected area, an increase of 8 percentage points from last week. The soybean growth was generally good, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good condition. Brazil's soybean export volume in November is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, higher than 2.34 million tons in the same period last year [7] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentine farmers started sowing 2025/26 soybeans, and most farmland soil moisture was in the "best" state. It is expected that Argentina will harvest 4.85 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million - hectare soybean area. The Argentine oilseed workers' union and the oil industry association reached a salary increase agreement, avoiding a strike that could paralyze soybean crushing activities [8] - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from last week and an increase of 1.6005 million tons from the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from last week and an increase of 168,900 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.205 million tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from last week and a decrease of 1.208 million tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons from last week and an increase of 2.884 million tons from the same period last year [8] - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of bean meal was 83,460 tons, including 66,740 tons of spot trading and 16,720 tons of forward trading. The previous week's average daily total trading volume was 111,780 tons; the weekly average daily pick - up volume of bean meal was 180,420 tons, compared with 196,360 tons in the previous week; the main oil mills' crushing volume was 1.8057 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons in the previous week; the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days were 7.75 days, compared with 8.02 days in the previous week [9] Group 5: Industry News - AgRural reported that as of October 30, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 47% of the expected sowing area, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. The Cerrado savanna region in central Brazil, Goias state, Mato Grosso state, and the "Matopiba" region faced problems, and bad weather might lead to partial replanting [10] - The soybean output of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) is expected to increase by 0.8% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 242.3 million tons, higher than 240.4 million tons in the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to decrease by 0.4% or 300,000 hectares to 72 million hectares, mainly due to a 1.3 - million - hectare decrease in Argentina's planting area, partially offset by a 1 - million - hectare increase in Brazil's planting area. The expected more favorable climate pattern will drive the average yield to increase to 3.4 tons per hectare, higher than 3.32 tons per hectare in the 2024/25 season. The soybean export volume is expected to increase by 5 million tons [10] - StoneX kept the harvest estimates of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans and summer corn largely unchanged. The November soybean output estimate was slightly increased by 0.1% to 178.9 million tons, mainly due to an increase in the estimated planting area in Goias state. Irregular rainfall led to delayed sowing in some areas, and long - term forecasts showed favorable weather for the harvest [11] - It is expected that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean output will be 4.74 million tons, the same as the previous forecast. The dry weather at the end of October/early November alleviated concerns about excessive humidity in the southern Pampas region. The expected soybean planting area is 16.7 million hectares, slightly higher than the Rosario Grain Exchange's report of 16.4 million hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's estimate of 17.6 million hectares. The USDA predicted Argentina's soybean output to be 4.85 million tons [11] - S&P Global Commodity Insights predicted that the average US soybean yield in 2025 would be 53.0 bushels per acre, the same as the October prediction, and the output would be 4.26 billion bushels, slightly lower than the previous estimate [12] - Imea reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 27 - 31 was 502.44 reals per ton, compared with 467.42 reals per ton in the previous week. The state's bean meal price was 1,565.33 reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 6,585.84 reals per ton [12] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, freight, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, management fund CBOT net position, bean meal main contract trend, regional bean meal spot price, bean meal M 1 - 5 monthly spread, Brazilian soybean production area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean production area precipitation and temperature, US soybean excellent rate, US soybean cumulative sales volume, US soybean weekly net sales volume, US soybean weekly export volume, US oil mill crushing profit, bean meal weekly average daily trading volume, bean meal weekly average daily pick - up volume, port soybean inventory, oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill weekly crushing volume, oil mill unexecuted contracts, oil mill bean meal inventory, and feed enterprise bean meal inventory days [13][14][15][17][19][20][22][24][30][32][34][36][38][42][44]
豆粕月报:中美贸易转变,豆粕期价探底反弹-20251103
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 04:54
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Sino-US Trade Transformation, Soybean Meal Futures Prices Bottom Out and Rebound" and is prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures [1][2] - The report was released on November 3, 2025, with Yao Zhanqi as the agricultural products sector researcher [2] Group 2: Market Review - In October 2025, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted soybean meal rose 2.58%, closing at 2940, while the weighted rapeseed meal fell 0.74%, closing at 2367 [5][8] - In the international market, US soybeans rose 11.42%, closing at 1115.00, and US soybean meal rose 17.64%, closing at 321.40 [5][8] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report showed that the 2025/26 US soybean harvest area was raised by 200,000 acres to 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre was lowered by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels, and the production was raised by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels [13] - The US soybean crush volume was raised by 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, the export volume was lowered by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels (a six - year low), and the ending inventory was raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels [13] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global 2025/26 soybean production forecast was 425.87 million tons (down from 426.39 million tons in August), and the ending inventory forecast was 123.99 million tons (down from 124.90 million tons in August) [5][17] China's Soybean Imports - As of September 2025, China's monthly soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons, at a historically high level [18] Oil Mill Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0044 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,300 tons, at a historically high level [20] Pig Farming Profit - As of October 31, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, at a historical average level [21] Feed Production - As of September 2025, feed production was 31.287 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% in the month, at a historically high level [22] Group 4: Cross - Variety Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 74.2 yuan per ton, and that of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 122.3 yuan per ton. The price of the main soybean meal futures contract was 3,021 yuan per ton [24] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Dalian soybean oil to soybean meal futures main contracts was 2.69, at a historical average level [26] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal to Dalian soybean meal futures main contracts was 0.79, and the price difference was - 633 yuan per ton [27] Group 5: Outlook - On October 30, 2025, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a consensus on agricultural trade and phased tariff mitigation. China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next three years, which strongly supports the US soybean futures price [6][30] - The rise in US soybean futures prices drives up domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices. However, the high - level of oil mill crushing and abundant soybean meal supply limit the price increase. After the Sino - US economic and trade forum, the tariff policy will provide clearer guidance for the soybean meal market [7][30]
中美会晤释放强信号!大豆、豆粕价格要变天?一文看懂核心逻辑
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-11-01 00:32
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. soybean futures prices is attributed to expectations of China purchasing U.S. soybeans, marking a significant shift after a period of zero imports from the U.S. [3][5] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - On October 30, U.S. soybean futures reached a peak of $11.14 per bushel, the highest in 15 months, closing at $11.09 on October 31 [3]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for China to resume soybean purchases from the U.S. is a key driver behind the price increase [5][6]. - Following a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump, there is optimism regarding the stabilization of U.S.-China relations, which could positively impact global soybean trade [5]. Group 2: Chinese Purchasing Behavior - There is speculation that China may agree to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, with potential procurement actions expected in November and December [6]. - The Chinese market's demand for soybeans is influenced by domestic supply conditions, with analysts noting that increased imports could stabilize domestic soybean supply [6][10]. - The Chinese soybean purchasing strategy may involve a mix of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, depending on price competitiveness [7]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean and Meal Demand - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by high inventory levels in the livestock sector [8][10]. - Recent data indicates that China's industrial feed production has shown significant year-on-year growth, reflecting robust demand for soybean meal [8]. - As of October 24, major oil mills in China reported a decrease in soybean inventory and an increase in soybean meal inventory, indicating shifting market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Price Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts express mixed views on the future of soybean prices, with some predicting a bullish trend while others caution against potential downward pressure if imports increase [6][11]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has hindered the release of updated agricultural reports, contributing to uncertainty in the market [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations that any recovery in U.S. soybean prices may be limited by global supply conditions, particularly from South America [11][12].
中美会晤释放强信号!大豆、豆粕价格要变天?一文看懂核心逻辑|大宗风云
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 15:36
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, reaching a 15-month high, driven by expectations of China purchasing U.S. soybeans [2][3] - On October 30, U.S. soybean futures peaked at $11.14 per bushel, closing at $11.09 on October 31, indicating strong market activity [2] - The recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump is seen as a positive signal for U.S.-China relations, potentially boosting global soybean trade [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that China may agree to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, with expectations of reserve procurement actions in November and December [4][5] - The U.S. soybean production for the current year is projected at 117 million tons, a 1.6% decrease year-on-year, due to reduced planting area [6][7] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by high livestock inventory, with significant increases in feed production observed [6][7] Group 3 - The market is divided on the future of soybean prices, with some expecting a bull market while others predict downward pressure on domestic soybean and meal prices if imports increase [5][8] - The global soybean supply remains ample, with South American production expected to exert pressure on U.S. soybean prices [8][9] - The upcoming months will be critical for determining the price dynamics of soybean and meal futures, particularly in relation to U.S.-China procurement agreements and South American weather conditions [8][9]
英媒发现:中国,7年来首次出现
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-10-20 15:44
Core Insights - China has not imported any soybeans from the United States since September 2025, marking the first occurrence of zero imports since November 2018 [1] - South American soybean shipments have surged compared to the same period last year, with Brazil's exports increasing by 29.9% to 10.96 million tons, accounting for 85.2% of total imports, and Argentina's exports rising by 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, making up 9% of the total [1] - In September, China's total soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, the second-highest level in history, but there were no purchases of U.S. soybeans during this fall season [1] - If trade negotiations do not yield results, U.S. soybean farmers may face losses amounting to billions of dollars as Chinese buyers continue to source soybeans from South America [1]
海关数据:中国9月未从美国进口大豆
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-20 11:51
Core Insights - In September, China did not import any soybeans from the United States, marking the first time since November 2018 that the monthly import volume from the U.S. has dropped to zero [1] - As the world's largest soybean importer, China is increasing its purchases from South American countries, importing approximately $4.9 billion worth of soybeans from Brazil in September [1] - The loss of Chinese buyers is intensifying dissatisfaction among U.S. farmers, many of whom are eagerly awaiting government assistance [1] Import Data Summary - From January to September 2025, the total value of soybeans imported from the U.S. was approximately $2.28 billion [2] - In the same period, soybean imports from Argentina amounted to about $514 million in September alone [3] - The data indicates a significant shift in sourcing, with Brazil becoming a primary supplier, reflecting a strategic pivot in China's import strategy [1][3]
豆粕:贸易预期变化,美豆偏弱、连粕或偏强,豆一:低位震荡,关注豆类市场氛围
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 06:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - On September 19, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, hitting a one - week low, as the call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leaders failed to reach an agreement on soybean exports. The market had hoped for more positive results from the negotiation, but the lack of short - term US soybean sales put pressure on the market [1][2] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract in the daytime session on the report day [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures - The closing price of DCE soybean No.1 2511 in the daytime session is 3904 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (+0.31%), and 3901 yuan in the night session, down 5 yuan (-0.13%) [1] - The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2601 in the daytime session is 3014 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (+0.43%), and 3019 yuan in the night session, up 15 yuan (+0.50%) [1] - The closing price of CBOT soybean 11 is 1026 cents/bushel, down 11.50 cents (-1.11%) [1] - The closing price of CBOT soybean meal 12 is 284.2 dollars/short ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.42%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 2980 - 3010 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different months compared to M2601 [1] - In East China, the spot price of soybean meal has different basis prices for different months compared to M2601, and most are unchanged from the previous day [1] - In South China, the spot price of soybean meal in different regions has different basis prices for different months compared to M2601, and some prices have changed [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal in the previous trading day was 9.3 million tons per day, compared with 5.36 million tons per day in the day before the previous trading day [1] - The inventory of soybean meal in the previous week was 110.85 million tons, and the data for the week before the previous week is not available [1]