豆粕周报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 关注美豆采购进展 连粕震荡调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆1月合约涨2.25收于1117.25美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅0.2%；豆粕01合约涨37收于3058元/吨，涨幅 1.22%；华南豆粕现货涨20收于3000元/吨，涨幅0.67%； 菜粕01合约涨151收于2539元/吨，涨幅6.32%；广西菜粕 现货涨120收于2630元/吨，涨幅4.78%。 ⚫ 美豆出口贸易乐观情绪降温，外盘高位震荡运行；南 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Sino-US Trade Transformation, Soybean Meal Futures Prices Bottom Out and Rebound" and is prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures [1][2] - The report was released on November 3, 2025, with Yao Zhanqi as the agricultural products sector researcher [2] Group 2: Market Review - In October 2025, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The weighted soybean meal rose 2.58%, closing at 2940, while the weighted rapeseed meal fell 0.74%, closing at 2367 [5][8] - In the international market, US soybeans rose 11.42%, closing at 1115.00, and US soybean meal rose 17.64%, closing at 321.40 [5][8] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report showed that the 2025/26 US soybean harvest area was raised by 200,000 acres to 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre was lowered by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels, and the production was raised by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels [13] - The US soybean crush volume was raised by 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, the export volume was lowered by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels (a six - year low), and the ending inventory was raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels [13] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global 2025/26 soybean production forecast was 425.87 million tons (down from 426.39 million tons in August), and the ending inventory forecast was 123.99 million tons (down from 124.90 million tons in August) [5][17] China's Soybean Imports - As of September 2025, China's monthly soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons, at a historically high level [18] Oil Mill Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0044 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,300 tons, at a historically high level [20] Pig Farming Profit - As of October 31, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, at a historical average level [21] Feed Production - As of September 2025, feed production was 31.287 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% in the month, at a historically high level [22] Group 4: Cross - Variety Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 74.2 yuan per ton, and that of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 122.3 yuan per ton. The price of the main soybean meal futures contract was 3,021 yuan per ton [24] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Dalian soybean oil to soybean meal futures main contracts was 2.69, at a historical average level [26] - As of October 31, 2025, the price ratio of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal to Dalian soybean meal futures main contracts was 0.79, and the price difference was - 633 yuan per ton [27] Group 5: Outlook - On October 30, 2025, the leaders of China and the US met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a consensus on agricultural trade and phased tariff mitigation. China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next three years, which strongly supports the US soybean futures price [6][30] - The rise in US soybean futures prices drives up domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices. However, the high - level of oil mill crushing and abundant soybean meal supply limit the price increase. After the Sino - US economic and trade forum, the tariff policy will provide clearer guidance for the soybean meal market [7][30]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. soybean futures prices is attributed to expectations of China purchasing U.S. soybeans, marking a significant shift after a period of zero imports from the U.S. [3][5] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - On October 30, U.S. soybean futures reached a peak of $11.14 per bushel, the highest in 15 months, closing at $11.09 on October 31 [3]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for China to resume soybean purchases from the U.S. is a key driver behind the price increase [5][6]. - Following a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump, there is optimism regarding the stabilization of U.S.-China relations, which could positively impact global soybean trade [5]. Group 2: Chinese Purchasing Behavior - There is speculation that China may agree to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, with potential procurement actions expected in November and December [6]. - The Chinese market's demand for soybeans is influenced by domestic supply conditions, with analysts noting that increased imports could stabilize domestic soybean supply [6][10]. - The Chinese soybean purchasing strategy may involve a mix of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, depending on price competitiveness [7]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean and Meal Demand - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by high inventory levels in the livestock sector [8][10]. - Recent data indicates that China's industrial feed production has shown significant year-on-year growth, reflecting robust demand for soybean meal [8]. - As of October 24, major oil mills in China reported a decrease in soybean inventory and an increase in soybean meal inventory, indicating shifting market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Price Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts express mixed views on the future of soybean prices, with some predicting a bullish trend while others caution against potential downward pressure if imports increase [6][11]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has hindered the release of updated agricultural reports, contributing to uncertainty in the market [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations that any recovery in U.S. soybean prices may be limited by global supply conditions, particularly from South America [11][12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, reaching a 15-month high, driven by expectations of China purchasing U.S. soybeans [2][3] - On October 30, U.S. soybean futures peaked at $11.14 per bushel, closing at $11.09 on October 31, indicating strong market activity [2] - The recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump is seen as a positive signal for U.S.-China relations, potentially boosting global soybean trade [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that China may agree to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, with expectations of reserve procurement actions in November and December [4][5] - The U.S. soybean production for the current year is projected at 117 million tons, a 1.6% decrease year-on-year, due to reduced planting area [6][7] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by high livestock inventory, with significant increases in feed production observed [6][7] Group 3 - The market is divided on the future of soybean prices, with some expecting a bull market while others predict downward pressure on domestic soybean and meal prices if imports increase [5][8] - The global soybean supply remains ample, with South American production expected to exert pressure on U.S. soybean prices [8][9] - The upcoming months will be critical for determining the price dynamics of soybean and meal futures, particularly in relation to U.S.-China procurement agreements and South American weather conditions [8][9]

中国是世界上最大的大豆进口国。路透社称，海关数据显示，上个月中国自巴西的进口量同比增长 29.9%，达到1096万吨，占进口总量的85.2%，而阿根廷的出口量增长91.5%，达到117万吨，即占总量 的9%。 据路透社10月20日报道，中国在2025年9月未从美国进口任何大豆，这是自2018年11月以来，近7年来首 次出现零进口的情况。相比之下，南美的大豆出货量较去年同期激增。 责任编辑：何俊熹 路透社称，9月份，中国大豆进口量达到1287万吨，为历史第二高水平。但中国在今年秋天没有购买任 何美国大豆，而美国大豆采购窗口正在迅速关闭。 路透社指出，如果贸易谈判没有突破，随着中国买家继续从南美采购大豆，美国豆农可能面临数十亿美 元的损失。 ...

Core Insights - In September, China did not import any soybeans from the United States, marking the first time since November 2018 that the monthly import volume from the U.S. has dropped to zero [1] - As the world's largest soybean importer, China is increasing its purchases from South American countries, importing approximately $4.9 billion worth of soybeans from Brazil in September [1] - The loss of Chinese buyers is intensifying dissatisfaction among U.S. farmers, many of whom are eagerly awaiting government assistance [1] Import Data Summary - From January to September 2025, the total value of soybeans imported from the U.S. was approximately $2.28 billion [2] - In the same period, soybean imports from Argentina amounted to about $514 million in September alone [3] - The data indicates a significant shift in sourcing, with Brazil becoming a primary supplier, reflecting a strategic pivot in China's import strategy [1][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - On September 19, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, hitting a one - week low, as the call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leaders failed to reach an agreement on soybean exports. The market had hoped for more positive results from the negotiation, but the lack of short - term US soybean sales put pressure on the market [1][2] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract in the daytime session on the report day [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures - The closing price of DCE soybean No.1 2511 in the daytime session is 3904 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (+0.31%), and 3901 yuan in the night session, down 5 yuan (-0.13%) [1] - The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2601 in the daytime session is 3014 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (+0.43%), and 3019 yuan in the night session, up 15 yuan (+0.50%) [1] - The closing price of CBOT soybean 11 is 1026 cents/bushel, down 11.50 cents (-1.11%) [1] - The closing price of CBOT soybean meal 12 is 284.2 dollars/short ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.42%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 2980 - 3010 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different months compared to M2601 [1] - In East China, the spot price of soybean meal has different basis prices for different months compared to M2601, and most are unchanged from the previous day [1] - In South China, the spot price of soybean meal in different regions has different basis prices for different months compared to M2601, and some prices have changed [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal in the previous trading day was 9.3 million tons per day, compared with 5.36 million tons per day in the day before the previous trading day [1] - The inventory of soybean meal in the previous week was 110.85 million tons, and the data for the week before the previous week is not available [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the unexpected increase in U.S. soybean exports despite losing China as its largest buyer, with exports reaching over 8 million tons by June, a 127% year-on-year increase [5] - In 2017, U.S. soybean exports to China were over 30 million tons, valued at more than $14 billion, but have since decreased due to China's reduced purchases [1] - The decline in U.S. soybean prices has led other countries, such as Mexico, Italy, and Spain, to increase their purchases significantly, with Mexico's orders rising fourfold compared to last year [7] Group 2 - The current port prices for U.S. soybeans are lower than domestic soybean prices in China, influenced by factors such as the use of genetically modified seeds and no-till farming practices in major exporting countries like Argentina [3] - The increase in soybean purchases from countries other than China has alleviated the financial difficulties faced by U.S. soybean farmers, presenting a challenge for China to become less reliant on foreign supplies [9]