转自：新华财经 •瑞银：美国财政承压之际美联储或迎降息契机 •巴克莱：若回购利率持续高企 美联储可能需要干预 •杰富瑞：维持低配美债立场 关注关税裁决对市场波动的影响 •丹斯克银行：英国央行将降息25个基点 行长贝利和副行长布里登的投票将成为关键 •在预算不确定性下英国央行可能按兵不动 •贝伦贝格：英国加税预期或为明年更多降息铺路 •欧元区9月零售销售未达预期 但预计不会影响欧洲央行决策 编辑：马萌伟 【机构分析】 •瑞银集团分析指出，若美国最高法院裁定特朗普的关税政策非法，预计将迫使美国政府向进口商退还 约1400亿美元税款，相当于2025财年联邦预算赤字预估的7.9%。一旦美国政府败诉，巨额退税将立即 引发财政冲击，同时可能导致结构性低关税贸易环境的形成。瑞银认为，该裁决最终可能降低整体有效 关税率，提升家庭购买力，缓解通胀压力，并为美联储提供更宽松的降息空间。 •巴克莱策略师Samuel Earl表示，如果回购协议利率回到美国有效联邦基金利率目标区间的上方，或者 只是上沿，并再持续数周，决策者就可能需要做出调整。回购市场是联邦基金利率走向的"重要驱动因 素"，官员们需要担心回购利率持续处于甚至高于区间上 ...

来源：滚动播报 瑞银集团分析指出，若美国最高法院裁定特朗普的关税政策非法，预计将迫使美国政府向进口商退还约 1400亿美元税款，相当于2025财年联邦预算赤字预估的7.9%。一旦美国政府败诉，巨额退税将立即引 发财政冲击，同时可能导致结构性低关税贸易环境的形成。若贸易伙伴不予反制，这种环境最终将利好 美国经济与股市。瑞银估计政府很可能动用《1974年贸易法》第201条及第301条等法律工具重建关税壁 垒，但此过程将耗时数个季度，并导致贸易政策灵活性下降。虽然退款将为进口企业带来意外之财，但 由于关税成本并未显著压低标普500指数盈利预期，其对整体市场的冲击可能有限。瑞银认为，该裁决 最终可能降低整体有效关税率，提升家庭购买力，缓解通胀压力，并为美联储提供更宽松的降息空间。 只要贸易伙伴避免升级反制措施，这总体上将受到股市投资者的欢迎。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Fiscal easing has been the primary driver of China's cyclical policy in recent years due to weak private demand and muted monetary policy transmission [3][4] - The estimated short-term fiscal multiplier for China ranges from 0.2 to 1.9, with a mean of 0.7 and a median of 0.6 for a one-year horizon [13][16] - The report estimates China's fiscal multiplier to be around 0.5, indicating that a 1 percentage point widening in the augmented fiscal deficit (AFD) would boost real GDP by 0.5 percentage points after four quarters [6][24] - The AFD is projected to widen to 13.0% of GDP in 2025 and 13.5% in 2026, which is expected to increase real GDP growth by 1.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.6 percentage points in 2026, compared to a 0.5 percentage point drag in 2024 [6][41] Summary by Sections Fiscal Multiplier Estimates - Recent literature suggests a wide range for China's fiscal multiplier, with discrepancies attributed to different sample periods and estimation techniques [13][14] - The report's analysis indicates a cumulative fiscal multiplier of approximately 0.2-0.3 in the first two quarters after a fiscal shock, rising to around 0.5 in the subsequent quarters [28][39] Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD) - The AFD has averaged over 11% of GDP in the past three years, while nominal GDP growth has been below 5% [17] - The report highlights a shift towards increasing the official government debt since the onset of COVID-19, enhancing the proportion of on-budget fiscal deficit in the AFD [17][21] Economic Growth Impact - The report anticipates that fiscal policy will significantly support GDP growth in the coming quarters, with a peak incremental fiscal boost expected in Q4 2025 [41][42] - The estimated growth impact of AFD widening is projected to be 1.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.6 percentage points in 2026, with a quarterly incremental effect diminishing after the fourth quarter [41][44]