Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stabilizing growth and policy easing. The stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the stable LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased global trade uncertainty have all influenced the bond market. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a -0.10% month - on - month change and a 0.70% year - on - year increase; PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a -2.20% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan (+0.54%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, down 0.20% (-2.44%); Manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, up 0.90% (+1.83%) [10]. - The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14 (+0.14%); USD/CNY (off - shore) was 6.9844, up 0.008 (+0.12%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.45, up 0.03 (+1.97%); DR007 was 1.46, up 0.03 (+2.09%); R007 was 1.51, with no change (-0.31%); AAA - rated 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.60, up 0.01 (+0.34%); 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.34%) [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury futures' main continuous contracts, the price change rates of various Treasury futures varieties, etc. [12][19][23]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and local government bond issuance [26][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures such as the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [35][42]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury futures' main contract and the Treasury bond's maturity yield [39][44]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury futures' main contract and the Treasury bond's maturity yield [48][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury futures' main contract and the Treasury bond's maturity yield [53][58]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury futures' main contract and the Treasury bond's maturity yield [59][65]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates, the prices of Treasury futures are oscillating [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short positions can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The July financial data shows significant fiscal support, with 188 billion yuan in investment subsidies for equipment renewal under the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment in various fields [1] - In July 2025, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Net capital injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock at the end of July was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [1] Summary by Directory Upstream - In the energy sector, international oil prices continued to decline; in the agricultural sector, egg and palm oil prices rebounded [2] Midstream - In the agricultural sector, the operating rate of pig products continued to rise [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities declined seasonally and were at a near - three - year low; in the service sector, the popularity of movies decreased and box office revenue declined [4] Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides the credit spreads of various industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry, showing their data from last year to this week and their quantiles [48] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - It includes price data of multiple industries such as agriculture, non - ferrous metals, energy, and chemicals, along with their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [49]

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic work conference has provided direction for the economy in the second half of the year, emphasizing continued monetary easing and fiscal support, with a focus on increasing liquidity and reducing financing costs. A significant change is the clear intention to "counter involution" [1] Group 1 - The economic strategy remains focused on monetary easing and fiscal support [1] - There is an emphasis on maintaining ample liquidity in the market [1] - Financing costs are expected to continue decreasing [1] Group 2 - The conference marks the first time a clear stance has been taken to address the issue of "involution" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hubei province is leveraging institutional innovation to address financing challenges faced by small and micro enterprises and technology companies, creating a collaborative financial ecosystem involving government, banks, and businesses [1] Group 1: Financing Challenges - Small and micro enterprises often struggle with financing due to a lack of effective collateral, leading to cash flow issues, as highlighted by the chairman of Wuhan Bowang Xinyuan Environmental Technology Co., Ltd [2] - The financing difficulties are attributed to three main pain points: the challenge of assessing intangible assets like commercial value and patents, information asymmetry between banks and enterprises, and the high risk management difficulty for financial institutions [2][3] Group 2: Innovative Solutions - Hubei has implemented a provincial platform called "E-Rong Tong" and a "smart brain" system to break down data barriers across various departments, enabling precise credit profiling for enterprises [3] - The introduction of commercial value credit loans has allowed companies like Bowang Xinyuan to secure significant funding based on their credit ratings, demonstrating the effectiveness of the new financing policies [2][3] Group 3: Implementation and Impact - The Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) Wuhan Branch has successfully transitioned its credit evaluation from fixed asset-based to innovation capability-based, facilitating quicker loan approvals for technology-driven companies [4] - The "Pu Hui Lai Le" app has been launched to provide comprehensive financial services for small and micro enterprises, enabling a streamlined online loan application process [4] - As of June 30, 2023, the SPDB Wuhan Branch has served 195 clients with knowledge value credit loans, totaling 11.981 billion yuan in credit, and 4.258 billion yuan in disbursed loans [5] Group 4: Ecosystem Development - The provincial support for small and micro enterprises has been continuously improving, leading to enhanced financing efficiency and reduced costs for companies [6][7] - The "knowledge value credit loan" and "commercial value credit loan" models are fostering a positive reaction in Hubei, with a significant number of technology enterprises benefiting from these initiatives [7] - The "smart brain" platform has attracted 21 financial institutions and offers a wide range of 51 technology financial products, indicating a robust ecosystem for innovation financing [7]