但标普同时警告2026年巨额的外债偿付压力，仍将对多个非洲主要经济体的财政抗风险能力构成考验。 2026年非洲各国需偿付的外债本金超900亿美元，是十年前偿付规模的三倍多。其中埃及偿债压力最 大，2026年有约270亿美元的硬通货债务到期。安哥拉、尼日利亚和南非同样面临高额偿付计划。高债 务水平、出口结构单一以及汇率持续波动将导致非洲各国的再融资风险依然居高不下。 （原标题：非洲主权信用评级升至5年来最高点） 全球利率下行让部分非洲国家重返国际债券市场，但借贷成本高昂；另有国家通过私募发行、多边融资 等方式缓解债务展期风险，却无法从根本上解决降低债务率的结构性难题。 据"非洲简报"2月11日报道，标普全球评级显示非洲主权信用平均评分升至2020年末以来峰值，多国政 府整体信用状况迎来五年多来最佳水平。 目前，非洲多数获评级经济体年增长率达4.5%左右，增速超多数发达国家；大宗商品价格走高、核心 市场通胀趋缓、国内财政收入增加，缓解了融资压力。同时，多国推进削减燃油补贴、扩大税基等财政 改革，使财政状况趋稳，2025-2026年非洲信用发展已从债务危机转向财政整合。 标普认为，若非洲能保持经济韧性增长、加快多元 ...

惠誉评级：印度预算彰显了其持续致力于维护宏观稳定的态度。印度的财政整合预计将非常温和，2027 财年的赤字目标为占GDP的4.3%。 ...

他续指，在国家的坚实支持、政府和社会各界的共同努力下，过去一年，香港经济全年录得3.5%增 长，较最初预期为佳。整体投资也明显加快，去年第四季录得按年10.9%的显著增长，是连续四个季度 录得正增长，全年累计增加4.5%。 陈茂波说，上周刚公布本财政年度首九个月(即2025年4月至12月)的政府收支，录得439亿港元的综合盈 余，这除了近月是薪俸税及利得税税款缴纳高峰期外，还包括期内发债所得。一如过去，2026年1至3月 期间政府的收入预料将回落，而恒常公共开支则会持续。 他指出，香港公共财政状况确实在改善中。在经营账目方面，受惠于去年金融市场表现畅旺、港股日均 成交额按年增近倍至约2,500亿港元，股票印花税收入较原来预算为高，加上持续推进的财政整合工作 管控了开支增幅，政府的经营账目将于本财政年度(2025至26年度)恢复盈余，较原来估算提早一年。至 于非经营账目，由于香港政府持续加大对基建和北部都会区的投入，因此仍须发债支持。 智通财经APP获悉，2月1日，香港财政司司长陈茂波发表网志称，海外企业和投资者对投资香港的信心 正在加强。去年海内外企业的驻港公司以及香港的初创公司数目均大增逾一成，分别超过11 ...

陈茂波说，日前刚公布本财政年度首9个月（即2025年4月至12月）的政府收支，录得439亿港元的 综合盈余，这除了近月是薪俸税及利得税税款缴纳高峰期外，还包括期内发债所得。一如过去，2026年 1月至3月期间政府的收入预料将回落，而恒常公共开支则会持续。 陈茂波表示，全球政经局势正急速变化，未来一年的风险和波动不会少，香港会继续努力，对接好 国家的"十五五"规划，加快融入和服务国家发展大局，以金融赋能科技创新和传统产业发展，促进科技 创新与产业发展的深度结合，并加强劳动力培训，尤其在技能和科技应用等方面，让经济发展提质增 量。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:刘子丫】 新华社香港2月1日电 香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波1日发表网志表示，受惠于去年金融市场表现 畅旺、持续推进的财政整合工作管控了开支增幅等，特区政府的经营账目将于本财政年度（2025至2026 年度）恢复盈余，较原来估算提早一年。至于非经营账目，由于持续加大对基建和北部都会区的投入， 仍需发债支持。 陈茂波说，总结1月份，港股表现继续向好，恒生指数上周五收市报27387点，上月累升近7%。平 均每日成交超过2720亿港元，与去年同期相比增加九成。即使外围波 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to consider further interest rate cuts in the coming months due to increasing economic headwinds and downward risks to both growth and inflation, with a focus on maintaining inflation around the 2% medium-term target [1] Economic Conditions - Recent signs of deterioration in the German industrial sector and potential political developments in France could lead to a fiscal consolidation process, which typically implies lower economic growth prospects and suppressed overall demand [1] - Wage growth is slowing, indicating a weakening momentum in the services sector, aligning with the ECB's assessments [1] Monetary Policy Strategy - Following eight previous rate cuts, further action may be necessary, with a strong endorsement of a "risk management" approach to monetary policy to actively manage risks, which are currently skewed to the downside [1] - Several long-time advocates for maintaining accommodative options share the view that the primary risk is not high inflation, but rather the possibility of actual inflation remaining persistently below forecast levels, highlighting the need for policy flexibility and potential additional easing measures [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Hong Kong government has not significantly increased taxes in recent years and has no plans for major tax hikes, focusing on expenditure reduction and revenue enhancement while maintaining a simple low tax system [1][2] - The projected real GDP growth for Hong Kong is 2.5% for 2024 and 3.1% for Q1 2025, which is notably higher than the average growth of 1.5% for the G7 countries in the same period [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of the year, with an average daily trading volume of approximately HKD 240.2 billion, a 118% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The 2025-2026 budget aims for fiscal consolidation primarily through expenditure control, with a goal to balance government accounts by that fiscal year and return to surplus by 2026-2027 [2] - The projected budget deficit for the current fiscal year is HKD 67 billion, with significant contributions from increased stamp duty revenue due to higher stock market activity [2] - The government plans to issue HKD 1.5 to 1.95 trillion in bonds over the next five years under sustainable and infrastructure bond programs, with an expected issuance of HKD 150 billion in the current fiscal year [2] Group 3: Support for Businesses - The Hong Kong government is actively supporting businesses, particularly SMEs, through various financing and development programs, including credit guarantees and funds for brand development and market expansion [3] - Hong Kong ranks third globally in competitiveness, with its tax policy ranked first, indicating a strong business environment [3] - The government is also introducing tax incentives for eligible commodity traders to boost the maritime services sector and plans to develop tax incentives for family offices and related wealth management [3] Group 4: Banking Sector Stability - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reports that local banks maintain a total capital ratio of 24.2% and an average liquidity coverage ratio of 182.5%, both exceeding international standards [4] - Credit risk related to local real estate development is manageable, with banks having taken measures to mitigate risks associated with smaller developers and investors [4] - The overall asset quality in the banking sector is stable, with a credit provisioning coverage ratio of approximately 60%, increasing to about 145% when considering collateral values [4]

Group 1 - The IMF warns that Europe may face the risk of stagnation if immediate measures are not taken to address slowing growth, weak investment, and rising geopolitical risks [1] - The IMF projects that the Eurozone economy will only grow by 0.8% in 2025, despite a historically low unemployment rate and inflation close to target [1] - The IMF highlights the existence of "hidden barriers" within the EU, such as inconsistent regulations and standards, which significantly hinder business expansion and innovation [1] Group 2 - The IMF calls for decisive action from the EU to revitalize productivity by addressing the issue of cross-border fragmentation, which could potentially increase the overall GDP of Europe by about 3% over the next decade [1] - The IMF emphasizes the need for countries with significant fiscal space to invest now to stimulate growth, while those with high debt levels must face fiscal consolidation [2] - The IMF suggests expanding the EU's common budget by 50% to coordinate investments aimed at achieving common goals [2] Group 3 - The IMF warns that companies with exposure to the US may face a more challenging operating environment due to current global trade tensions, potentially leading to increased defaults and bad debts for related banks [2] - Despite these challenges, the IMF notes that the European banking system is currently well-capitalized and liquid, maintaining strong resilience against risks in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government has introduced a new fiscal budget for 2025/2026, emphasizing fiscal consolidation while maintaining public services and investing in future growth opportunities, particularly in technology and innovation [1][11]. Economic Growth and Fiscal Measures - Hong Kong's economy is projected to grow moderately by 2.5% in 2024, with a budget deficit of HKD 87.2 billion expected for 2024/2025. The growth rate for 2025 is estimated to be between 2% and 3% [1][3]. - The budget focuses on strict control of public spending while exploring new revenue sources to enhance competitiveness and drive economic growth [1][11]. Tourism and Capital Markets - The tourism sector saw a 30% increase in visitors, reaching approximately 45 million, driven by national support measures and events [3]. - The stock market benefited from government support and a reduction in U.S. interest rates, with the Hang Seng Index rising 18% in 2024 and daily trading volume increasing by 26% [3]. Real Estate Market - The residential property market showed signs of recovery after interest rate cuts, with transaction volume increasing by 23% to around 53,000, despite a 7% drop in prices [4]. - The government raised the stamp duty exemption threshold for properties valued up to HKD 4 million, benefiting about 15% of transactions [4]. Infrastructure and Debt Issuance - The government plans to issue HKD 150 billion to HKD 195 billion in bonds over the next five years to finance infrastructure projects, with 56% allocated for refinancing short-term debt [4][10]. - The budget anticipates a stable economic environment, with inflation rates projected at 1.5% for basic inflation and 1.8% overall [4]. Financial Market Connectivity - Efforts are underway to enhance the connectivity between Hong Kong and mainland China, including the introduction of offshore government bond futures and stock block trading [6]. - The government is also preparing to optimize the dual primary listing and secondary listing thresholds to attract more private equity funds [7]. Innovation and Technology Development - A budget of HKD 1 billion is allocated to establish the Hong Kong Artificial Intelligence Research Institute to promote AI innovation and application [8]. - The government plans to invest HKD 10 billion in a "Technology Industry Guidance Fund" to support strategic emerging industries [9]. Talent and Investment Attraction - The new capital investment scheme has received over 880 applications, expected to bring in more than HKD 26 billion in investments [10]. - The government aims to enhance its talent attraction measures to support economic growth and innovation [10].