Jaakko Kooroshy LSEG 全球可持续投资研究主管 Kieran Brophy LSEG 主权气候研究负责人 2025年一直被视为全球气候谈判的关键节点。 早在2015年各国齐聚巴黎参加 COP21时，就已确定 2025年将成为各国提交新的、更具雄心的减排承诺的年份，这些承诺将涵盖2030年之后的时期。 这些国家自主贡献（NDCs）才是市场——以及气候变化——最为关注的核心。 在LSEG，我们一直 密切追踪NDCs，因为它们是迄今为止最清晰的信号，显示出政策制定者对本国2030年后排放路径的 设想。它们塑造了投资者和企业所面临的转型风险环境，并最终在整体上决定全球排放轨迹，从而成 为衡量未来物理风险的关键。 然而，这一年对国家自主贡献（NDCs）来说开局颇为艰难。 1 月，美国——全球第二大排放国和世 界最大经济体——表示将退出《巴黎协定》。2 月，95%的签署方未能按期提交新的目标；到8月 底，这一比例仍高达85%。换句话说，距离COP30仅剩三个月时，NDC进程几乎濒临失败。 不过，在COP30前的八周里出现了迟来的反弹 ——这一事实似乎令人困惑地被记者和与会代表忽视 了。三分之二的国家已经 ...

中央经济工作会议指出，"加强气象监测预报预警体系建设，加紧补齐北方地区防洪排涝抗灾基础设施 短板，提高应对极端天气能力。" 开展气象预警，提高防灾、减灾、救灾能力都是适应气候变化的重要举措。我国2035年国家自主贡献也 提出，到2035年，气候适应型社会基本建成。适应气候变化已刻不容缓，但资金却是难题。公共资金总 量有限，社会资本又对这类项目的回报与风险心存担忧。 在这种背景下，"混合融资"被认为是解决气候资金缺口的关键机制之一。 在第13届中国责任投资论坛上，自然资源保护协会与北京大学国家发展研究院宏观与绿色金融实验室联 合发布《混合融资支持气候转型：国际经验与中国模式》（以下简称《报告》）。 《报告》指出，通过引入优惠资本并让其承担更高风险并接受较低财务回报率，混合融资可优化整个项 目的风险收益结构，从而提升商业资本的参与意愿。 极端天气的肆虐下，全球已然意识到了增强气候适应能力的紧迫性。 日前闭幕的2025年联合国气候变化大会（COP30）明确，发达国家到2035年将对发展中国家的气候适应 资金增加两倍，从每年400亿美元提升至1200亿美元。 然而，资金的兑现严重缺位。 《联合国气候变化框架公约》（U ...

（原标题：德国蓝皮书：政治"右转"下德国开启深度转型） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 蓝皮书预计，默茨领导的德国新政府不会改变加速可再生能源扩张和2045年实现气候中和的整体目标。 但是和新政府要着重解决的经济问题相比，气候保护议题在未来的关注度或将降低，对加速摆脱化石能 源依赖的动力也将减弱，甚至有一天会重新讨论恢复核电。降低电价、增强德国工业企业国际竞争力成 为默茨政府能源政策的重中之重。尽管默茨的大规模政府举债措施中，有1000亿欧元必须流入气候转型 基金，但是这笔资金的具体支出范围还有待确定。 作为欧洲技术创新的标杆国家，德国自2018年颁布首部《国家人工智能战略》以来，逐步从基础研究主 导转向产业应用优先，并通过《人工智能行动计划》以及欧盟《人工智能法案》强化技术主权与伦理规 制。蓝皮书还指出，在全球技术竞争层面，德国积极探索区别于中美模式的"第三条道路"，将人工智能 与本国的优势产业相结合，高度重视"可信AI"治理与技术主权争夺，以制度创新和价值输出构建竞争优 势。 在内外多重挑战下，欧洲第一大经济体德国开启深度转型。12月13日，同济大学与社会科学文献出版社 联合发布了德国蓝皮书 ...

Core Insights - The global sustainable investment landscape is facing dual challenges, including rising costs of green transition due to geopolitical tensions and declining enthusiasm for ESG investments in certain markets [1][3][4] Group 1: Investment Challenges and Strategies - The primary challenge for Temasek is the mispricing of climate risk and the mismatch in investment time horizons, which complicates the pursuit of financial returns while addressing climate change [3][4][14] - Temasek aims to halve net carbon emissions from its portfolio by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2050, which is particularly challenging given the high emissions from key sectors like aviation and energy [4][14] - The company employs a multi-faceted approach to tackle climate change, including engaging with portfolio companies, integrating ESG assessments into investment decisions, and applying an internal carbon price that is expected to rise from $65 to $100 per ton by 2030 [4][17][18] Group 2: Sustainable Investment Initiatives - Temasek is investing in carbon-efficient businesses and decarbonization solutions, such as renewable energy platforms and advanced technologies like long-duration storage and green ammonia [18][19] - The company has increased its investments in sustainable solutions in China, with the net portfolio value of such investments growing from 1% in 2016 to 11% (approximately S$46 billion) by March 2025 [20] - Temasek collaborates with ecosystem partners to drive systemic change and advance climate technologies, including supporting sustainable aviation fuel trials and participating in initiatives to enhance carbon market integrity [23][25] Group 3: Governance and Engagement - As a shareholder, Temasek does not manage day-to-day operations of portfolio companies but engages with their management to encourage policies that enhance long-term performance, particularly in ESG areas [21][22] - The company utilizes various platforms for knowledge sharing and collaboration among portfolio companies, focusing on those with significant transformation potential [22][24] - Temasek conducts ESG due diligence on all new investments and employs frameworks to manage material risks, ensuring alignment with sustainability goals [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a constructive outlook on Chinese assets across various sectors, including bonds, foreign exchange, and equities, while focusing on technology innovation areas such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [1][2]. Investment Opportunities in China - The company expresses long-term strategic confidence in the Chinese capital market, identifying three key dimensions for investment opportunities: ongoing institutional openness and Hong Kong's bridging role, green finance aligned with China's dual carbon goals, and the significant potential of the pension market [2]. - The company highlights the attractiveness of electric vehicles and battery sectors from a valuation perspective, as well as biotechnology and pharmaceuticals related to artificial intelligence as long-term investment directions [2]. Global Monetary Policy Insights - The company predicts two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and another two in 2026, adjusting the target down to 3.5% due to a softening labor market [3]. - The company notes that the current international tariff policy is still evolving, creating investment opportunities in countries previously overlooked due to their attractive risk-reward ratios [3]. Diversified Investment Portfolio Construction - The company advises investors to focus on structural trends and build positions in mid- to long-term opportunities such as climate transition and artificial intelligence, while also considering risk management strategies [4]. - Gold is emphasized as a key asset class for the company due to its inflation-hedging properties and ability to withstand geopolitical risks, with a long-term price target of $5,000 per ounce within three years [5]. Asset Allocation Strategies - The company typically constructs a core asset allocation framework based on client needs, determining the proportion of equity and fixed income assets, and further specifying allocations within fixed income [6]. - For Chinese investors, the company suggests maintaining a diversified asset allocation, encouraging them to broaden their investment horizons and explore wider opportunities beyond their comfort zones [6].

Group 1 - The meeting focuses on energy issues, marking the first significant international gathering since the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, highlighting the importance of communication among nations [3] - China's absence from the meeting is significant, as it is a leading player in green energy, and experts suggest this refusal is a strong stance against U.S. hegemony related to recent tariff policies [3][19] - The global energy landscape is undergoing dramatic changes, with renewable energy investments surpassing fossil fuels for the first time in 2022, although oil and gas still account for 55% of global energy consumption [6] Group 2 - The guest list for the summit is notable, with over 75 countries invited but only about 60 confirming attendance, including major oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, while Russia is excluded [6][10] - Despite claims of investing in renewable energy, countries like Saudi Arabia still rely heavily on oil exports for their revenue, indicating a complex relationship with climate issues [8][10] - The absence of vulnerable African nations from the summit raises concerns, as these countries bear the brunt of climate change impacts despite having minimal carbon emissions [12] Group 3 - The U.S. delegation includes an official who publicly questions climate science, reflecting a strategy to promote American oil and gas resources while delaying global energy transition efforts [15][17] - The U.S. has become the largest oil producer globally, with a daily output of 11.8 million barrels in 2022, driven by relaxed regulations and tax incentives for oil and gas companies [17] - China's rapid growth in clean energy sectors, holding over 60% of global clean energy equipment production, positions it as a key player in the energy transition, despite its absence from the summit [19] Group 4 - The international community's reaction to the U.S. strategy includes criticism from environmental groups and growing dissatisfaction among developing countries regarding Western climate policies [22] - The ambiguous stance of oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia reflects a reluctance to abandon traditional energy revenues while also seeking opportunities in the renewable sector [24] - The complex dynamics between Western nations and China in energy cooperation reveal a contradiction where countries seek benefits while publicly opposing China's influence [24] Group 5 - Climate change is a shared challenge, and the success of energy transition relies on technology sharing, financial support, and inclusive policies, emphasizing the need for developed nations to stop politicizing climate issues [26]

Group 1 - The IMF warns that Europe may face the risk of stagnation if immediate measures are not taken to address slowing growth, weak investment, and rising geopolitical risks [1] - The IMF projects that the Eurozone economy will only grow by 0.8% in 2025, despite a historically low unemployment rate and inflation close to target [1] - The IMF highlights the existence of "hidden barriers" within the EU, such as inconsistent regulations and standards, which significantly hinder business expansion and innovation [1] Group 2 - The IMF calls for decisive action from the EU to revitalize productivity by addressing the issue of cross-border fragmentation, which could potentially increase the overall GDP of Europe by about 3% over the next decade [1] - The IMF emphasizes the need for countries with significant fiscal space to invest now to stimulate growth, while those with high debt levels must face fiscal consolidation [2] - The IMF suggests expanding the EU's common budget by 50% to coordinate investments aimed at achieving common goals [2] Group 3 - The IMF warns that companies with exposure to the US may face a more challenging operating environment due to current global trade tensions, potentially leading to increased defaults and bad debts for related banks [2] - Despite these challenges, the IMF notes that the European banking system is currently well-capitalized and liquid, maintaining strong resilience against risks in the short term [2]