中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面，1月13日盘中，伦敦金现突破4600美元/盎司大关。 申万宏源证券指出，美国打击委内瑞拉等地缘事件刺激避险需求，对金价形成支撑。长期来看，货币信 用格局重塑持续，美国财政赤字率提升背景下，央行购金成为长期趋势，叠加我国黄金储备仍偏低，金 价中枢有望持续上行。此外，降息后实际利率下行将吸引黄金ETF资金流入，当前贵金属板块估值具备 修复动力。 ...

COMEX黄金突破4600美元创新高，黄金基金ETF（518800）盘中涨近2%，资金面看，近60日资金净流 入超60亿元。 消息面，1月12日，COMEX黄金突破4600美元/盎司大关。 申万宏源证券指出，美国打击委内瑞拉等地缘事件刺激避险需求，对金价形成支撑。长期来看，货币信 用格局重塑持续，美国财政赤字率提升背景下，央行购金成为长期趋势，叠加我国黄金储备仍偏低，金 价中枢有望持续上行。此外，降息后实际利率下行将吸引黄金ETF资金流入，当前贵金属板块估值具备 修复动力。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投 ...

2026 年 01 月 11 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 属板块景气持续，看好春季行情 金属&新材料行业周报 20250105-20260109 本期投资提示: 信任命 波段人分出品 我研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 3.82%，深证成指上涨 4.40%，沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 8.56%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 5.77 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 7.28%，铝上涨 9.12%， 能源金属上涨 6.30%，小金属上涨 11.67%，铜上涨 ...

相关研究 行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 01 月 11 日 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属板块景气持续，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20250105-20260109 本期投资提示： 有色金属 点 评 证 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 3.82%，深证成指上涨 4.40%，沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 8.56%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 5.77 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

信任命 2026 年 01 月 05 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.71%，深证成指上涨 0.29%，沪深 300 下跌 0.09%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 3.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.39 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 2.77%，铝上涨 6.20%， 能源金属上涨 0.25%，小金属上涨 1.37%，铜上涨 7.23%，铅锌上涨 0.83%，金属新材料上涨 1.04%。 0 价格变化：环比上周，1) 工业金属及贵金属：据 iFind，LME 铜/铝/铅/锌/锡/镍价格 2.14%/1.18%/0.83 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a strong performance in metal prices, particularly in precious metals [5]. - It notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market significantly in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 79.60% [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals due to low central bank gold reserves in China and a shift in monetary policy [5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.84% during the week [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.39 percentage points [6]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 1.50%, while aluminum prices dropped by 4.72% [12]. Price Changes and Industry Analysis - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices down by 0.83% and aluminum prices down by 4.72% [5]. - The report indicates that the demand for copper remains strong, with a current social inventory of 163,000 tons, reflecting a slight increase [34]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics for aluminum are tightening, with a forecast for long-term price increases [5]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, such as Zijin Mining, which has a projected PE ratio of 16 for 2025 [22]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold and Huayou Cobalt, with respective PE ratios of 24 and 20 for 2025 [22]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Hesteel and Shandong Steel [23].

Core Viewpoint - Recent rise in gold prices is primarily driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts in December, with a long-term view of reshaping monetary credit dynamics and an anticipated increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - China's current gold reserves are relatively low, and the central bank's ongoing gold purchases are expected to be a long-term trend, leading to a sustained upward movement in gold price levels [1] - The gold-silver ratio is currently at a high level, and with expectations of marginal demand recovery, this ratio is likely to converge [1] - The valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower end of its historical range, indicating potential for continued recovery and growth in this sector [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months, which is likely to boost bullish sentiment in the gold market and alleviate previous market concerns regarding high gold prices and a potential halt in central bank purchases [1] - The current pricing factors for gold prioritize safety over yield, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold investments during subsequent price corrections and to gradually build positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETF (518800) as well as gold stock ETFs covering the entire gold industry chain (517400) are highlighted as potential investment vehicles [1]

申万宏源证券指出，近期黄金上涨主要系12月降息预期升温，长期看货币信用格局重塑持续，大而 美法案通过后美国财政赤字率将提升。当前我国黄金储备偏低，央行购金为长期趋势，金价中枢将持续 上行。此外，降息后实际利率下行将吸引黄金ETF流入；同时金银比处于偏高水平，边际需求修复预期 下金银比有望收敛。当前贵金属板块估值处于历史中枢下沿，板块具备持续修复的动力及空间。中国央 行连续12个月增持黄金，有望提振黄金多头信心，打消此前市场对金价过高央行停止购金的担忧，进一 步表明当前金价定价因素优先级上安全性高于收益性。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投 资实物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF （517400）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎 ...

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投 资实物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF （517400）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 申万宏源证券指出，近期黄金上涨主要系12月降息预期升温，长期看货币信用格局重塑持续，大而 美法案通过后美国财政赤字率将提升，当前我国黄金储备偏低，央行购金为长期趋势，金价中枢将持续 上行。2024年4月后中国央行停 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting quality targets in gold, copper, and aluminum [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the metals sector has outperformed the broader market, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 2.56% compared to a decline in the CSI 300 index [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the precious metals market, suggesting a long-term upward trend in gold prices due to low domestic gold reserves in China and increasing central bank purchases [3][21]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others in the precious metals sector, as they are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [3][4]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.67%, and the CSI 300 fell by 0.43% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index has increased by 75.90% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 57.96% [7]. Price Changes and Company Valuations - The report details price changes for various metals, noting that copper prices have seen a 24.17% increase year-to-date, while aluminum prices have risen by 13.03% [14]. - The report provides a comprehensive valuation table for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2023 to 2026 [18]. Precious Metals - The report highlights an increase in gold ETF holdings, indicating a growing confidence among investors in the precious metals market [21]. - The gold-silver ratio is noted to be at 81.9, suggesting potential for silver to catch up as demand recovers [22]. Industrial Metals - The report discusses the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a slight increase in domestic social inventory and a decrease in the copper treatment charge [27]. - For aluminum, the report indicates a slight decrease in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, while the overall supply-demand balance remains tight [39][41]. Small Metals - The report mentions the tight supply conditions for cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the strong demand for lithium in the energy storage sector [3][4].