（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 这是一次鸽派的FOMC，如前所述，我觉得这是正确的做法。在所有发言里面，我觉得有一句话是我觉 得最值得一读的。大意是： 鲍威尔认为需要几年时间，保持实际薪资更高，名义工资高于名义通胀，才能让美国人感觉到对于物价 可负担。因此联储正在为此努力，控制通胀，单页支持劳动力市场和强劲的工资，以便让人们赚到足够 的钱，并再次感到经济健康。 我觉得目的是最重要的，手段都是其次，上面这段话表明的就是联储的目的。是他如何解决目前通胀和 失业率的难题。关于这个我想再补充几点 第一是，这个说法和Trump以及哈赛特的说法是呼应的，Trump在之前很多个场合都说过，只有一个大 大的成功才能让大家团结在一起。我们且不说他的用词和夸张的语句如何，这个思路是没有任何问题 的。成功是成功之母。在一个分裂的世界里面需要成功，即便只是成功的幻像。 哈赛特之前也说过，从2.5%的通胀到了4%要不要加息，肯定是要的，逻辑也是如此，因为4%的通胀谁 的经济能跑得赢这么高的通胀，但是不是通胀在2.5%就要加息一定要把通胀干到2%，那何苦呢？ 所以这是一个共识的看法，也是我心目中更合理的做法，在现 ...

12月3日，国际权威财经媒体英国《银行家》(The Banker)杂志在伦敦揭晓年度银行榜单,中信银行获 得"2025年中国年度银行"(Bank of the Year China 2025)大奖。 英国《银行家》杂志主办的"年度银行"评选是全球银行业最负盛名的奖项之一，以其独立、权威的评审 体系著称，被誉为全球银行业的"奥斯卡"。此次是中信银行继2017年获奖后再度折桂，不仅标志着其在 贯彻落实中央关于金融工作各项决策部署、扎实推进高质量发展方面取得突出成果，更展现了其在中国 银行业商业化、国际化进程中的标杆地位。据Brand Finance揭晓的《2025年全球银行品牌价值榜》，中 信银行的品牌价值为169.5亿美元，同比增幅27.2%，成为中国内地银行中品牌价值增幅第一的金融机 构。 《银行家》杂志高度评价了中信银行围绕社会议题与不断变化的客群需求所进行的一系列创新实践。评 委会特别指出，中信银行围绕客户全生命周期需求，构建了横跨零售、对公和金融市场，以及涵盖财富 管理、综合融资、交易结算、外汇服务、数字化银行等领域、层次分明且覆盖广泛的产品与服务矩阵。 其通过养老支柱产品项目为银发客户提供支持，满足中 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, most blast furnaces that were under maintenance at the end of October resumed production on November 1st. A heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency response was launched on November 3rd, with many implementing a 30% sintering production limit. As of November 5th, 14 out of 89 blast furnaces in 23 sample steel enterprises were under maintenance, and some enterprises planned to moderately reduce production. The daily average impact on molten iron production was about 39,100 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.19%, an increase of 0.28% from last week and a decrease of 5.07% from the same period last year. Also, starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US - imported goods will be suspended for one year, while the 10% tariff will be retained [1]. - In the service industry, the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal suggests the steady development of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization. The strategic position of derivatives has been significantly elevated, and the futures industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading [1]. Summary by Directory Upstream - In the chemical industry, the price of natural rubber has declined [2]. - In the agricultural industry, the price of palm oil has dropped [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals industry, the price of copper has slightly decreased [2]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operation rate is at a high level, and the polyester operation rate has slightly increased [3]. - In the energy industry, the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3]. Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [4]. - In the service industry, the number of domestic flights has slightly increased, and the movie box office is in the off - season [4]. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2152.9 yuan/ton | 0.20% | | Agriculture | Spot price of eggs | 6.2 yuan/kg | - 0.32% | | Agriculture | Spot price of palm oil | 8652.0 yuan/ton | 2.24% | | Agriculture | Spot price of cotton | 14834.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | Agriculture | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.2 yuan/kg | 1.28% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 85431.7 yuan/ton | - 2.67% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of zinc | 22486.0 yuan/ton | 0.96% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 21450.0 yuan/ton | 1.29% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of nickel | 121050.0 yuan/ton | - 1.20% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3138.0 yuan/ton | - 1.60% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 801.9 yuan/ton | - 1.80% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of wire rod | 3305.0 yuan/ton | - 1.05% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | 1.30% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14466.7 yuan/ton | - 3.29% | | Non - metals | China Plastic City price index | 777.5 | - 0.10% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 60.6 dollars/barrel | 0.68% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 64.4 dollars/barrel | 0.06% | | Energy | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4288.0 yuan/ton | - 2.01% | | Energy | Coal price | 820.0 yuan/ton | 1.36% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4555.4 yuan/ton | 0.01% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 7011.7 yuan/ton | - 1.13% | | Chemical | Spot price of urea | 1597.5 yuan/ton | - 1.84% | | Chemical | Spot price of soda ash | 1203.6 yuan/ton | - 0.53% | | Chemical | National cement price index | 136.7 | 0.18% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | 112.0 points | - 0.94% | | Real estate | National concrete price index | 90.9 points | - 0.13% | [37]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a steady development of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization, significantly elevating the strategic position of derivatives in the financial landscape [1] Group 1: Strategic Importance - The inclusion of derivatives in the five-year plan is a strategic move aimed at establishing a more resilient modern financial system [1] - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to build a strong financial nation, reflecting the need for enhanced risk governance [1] Group 2: Industry Transformation - The futures industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading in response to new strategic positioning and development requirements [1] - Experts emphasize the necessity for the futures sector to address shortcomings and strengthen risk prevention measures [1] Group 3: Market Quality and Efficiency - There is a focus on achieving simultaneous improvements in market quality and efficiency within the futures industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for China's modernization goals, with the capital market assigned a more significant strategic mission to support high-quality economic development and technological innovation [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Market's Role - The capital market should not be viewed merely as a financing channel but as an incentive mechanism for social innovators and wealth creators, allowing residents to share in economic development through securities investment [3]. - A healthy market must achieve a balance between risk and return; if it only meets the needs of financing parties without addressing investors' reasonable risk-return expectations, it will struggle to sustain itself [3]. Group 2: Reform Pathways - The primary task for capital market reform during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is to "reconstruct the market ecosystem," shifting focus from financing to "incentivizing innovation" and "wealth management" [3]. - Enhancing the legal framework is essential, with a significant increase in penalties for illegal activities, transitioning from primarily administrative penalties to a dual system of civil compensation and criminal punishment [3]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - Efforts should be made to optimize market structure by improving the quality of listed companies and promoting the listing of more technology-driven enterprises, which are vital for generating wealth effects and long-term investment value [4]. - The current reform aims to remove restrictions on large capital entering the market, particularly focusing on releasing the market potential of long-term capital such as insurance funds [4]. Group 4: Internationalization and Institutional Environment - The capital market should transition from a pipeline-style opening to a comprehensive opening, attracting global capital and high-quality foreign enterprises to list in China, thereby establishing an internationally influential financial center [4]. - Building an institutional environment that fosters original ideas and scientific technology is crucial for China to advance towards developed nation status, with deep reforms in the capital market providing necessary incentives for innovation [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic goal of building a strong financial nation under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, highlighting significant achievements in financial reform and modernization [1] Group 1: Financial System Development - The financial system in China has seen comprehensive reforms, with a focus on enhancing governance and modernizing the financial governance framework [2] - As of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total assets of the banking and insurance sectors have exceeded 500 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 9% over the past five years [2] - The number of financial institutions has increased, with 143 Chinese banks listed among the global top 1,000, and six of the top ten banks being Chinese [2] Group 2: Financial Services to the Real Economy - Over the past five years, the banking and insurance sectors have provided an additional 170 trillion yuan in funding to the real economy through various financial instruments [3] - Loans to small and micro enterprises have reached 36 trillion yuan, which is 2.3 times the amount at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, with interest rates decreasing by 2 percentage points [3] - The insurance sector has paid out 9 trillion yuan in claims, a 61.7% increase compared to the previous five-year period [3] Group 3: Financial Regulation and Risk Management - The financial regulatory system has undergone significant reforms, with a focus on enhancing regulatory effectiveness and implementing a multi-tiered regulatory framework [4] - The regulatory authority has imposed penalties on 20,000 institutions and 36,000 individuals, with a total fine amounting to 21 billion yuan [4] - The risk management strategy has successfully reduced the number of high-risk financial institutions and their asset scale significantly [5][7] Group 4: Financial Opening and Internationalization - The financial sector has seen steady progress in opening up, with over 10 trillion yuan held by foreign institutions and individuals in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits [8] - The People's Bank of China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 32 countries, enhancing the international use of the renminbi [9] - The establishment of Shanghai as a global center for renminbi asset allocation and risk management is underway, promoting international participation in the financial market [9] Group 5: Business Environment Improvement - The cross-border trade and investment facilitation levels have significantly improved, with nearly 300 billion USD in related transactions since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [10] - Policies have been upgraded to enhance cross-border financing for high-tech and small enterprises, with over 16,000 companies assisted in financing [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant achievements of China's financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the deepening of financial reforms and the enhancement of financial services to the real economy [1][3][5] - As of June 2023, China's banking sector total assets reached nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world, with stock and bond market sizes also ranking second globally [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a supportive monetary policy stance, focusing on maintaining internal and external balance while promoting economic recovery and financial market stability [7][8] Group 2 - Financial system reforms have been further deepened, with the establishment of new regulatory bodies such as the Central Financial Committee, enhancing governance efficiency [3] - The quality of financial services to the real economy has significantly improved, with annual growth rates exceeding 20% for loans to technology-based SMEs, inclusive micro-enterprises, and green loans during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][5] - The number of high-risk small and medium-sized banks has been significantly reduced, with a decrease of over 60% in financing platform numbers and over 50% in financial debt scale as of June 2023 [5][4] Group 3 - The internationalization of the Renminbi has progressed, with the currency becoming the largest settlement currency for China's external payments and ranking third in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket [6] - Financial market openness has been steadily deepened, with foreign institutions holding over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks and bonds by the end of July 2023 [6] - The PBOC is committed to maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment and will utilize various monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity and support effective investment [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant achievements of China's financial sector, including the total assets of the banking industry reaching nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world [1] - The stock and bond market sizes rank second globally, while foreign exchange reserves have maintained the world's largest position for 20 consecutive years [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes further financial system reforms, including the establishment of the Central Financial Committee to enhance centralized leadership over financial work [2] - The plan aims to accelerate the construction of a modern financial system and promote high-quality development of the financial industry [2] Group 3 - Financial services for the real economy have significantly improved, with a supportive monetary policy stance and the initial formation of a modern monetary policy framework [4] - During the "14th Five-Year" period, loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, inclusive small and micro loans, and green loans are expected to grow at an annual rate exceeding 20% [4] Group 4 - Continuous progress in financial reform and opening up is noted, with a focus on supply-side structural reforms and deepening financial institution reforms [6] - The development of a multi-level financial market and optimization of financial structure are key objectives, along with promoting high-level bilateral openness and enhancing participation in international financial governance [6]

Core Insights - China's financial sector has achieved significant milestones under the strong leadership of the Central Committee, with total banking assets reaching nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally [2] - The financial system has been restructured to enhance governance and regulatory effectiveness, aligning with the strategic goal of building a financial powerhouse [2] - The banking and insurance sectors have provided 170 trillion yuan in new funds to the real economy over the past five years, with notable growth in loans for scientific research, manufacturing, and infrastructure [3] Group 1: Financial Achievements - As of mid-2023, China's banking sector holds total assets of approximately 470 trillion yuan, leading the world [2] - The stock and bond markets rank second globally in terms of size, while foreign exchange reserves have maintained the top position for 20 consecutive years [2] - The banking and insurance industries have contributed significantly to the real economy, with annual growth rates of 27.2% for scientific research loans, 21.7% for manufacturing loans, and 10.1% for infrastructure loans [3] Group 2: Risk Management - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has enhanced its regulatory framework, resulting in a 58% increase in administrative penalties for financial misconduct during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The A-share market has shown improved resilience and risk management capabilities, with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index decreasing by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous five-year period [4] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above 3 trillion USD, providing a crucial stabilizing effect on the economy amid external pressures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to solidify its recovery and positive momentum [1] Group 1: Market Attractiveness - The attractiveness of the capital market is defined as the continuous siphoning effect on domestic and foreign funds, as well as high-quality enterprises [1] - This attractiveness is to be achieved through institutional innovation, market openness, and ecological optimization [1] Group 2: Market Inclusiveness - Inclusiveness is characterized by comprehensive support for enterprises at different stages of development, various ownership types, and different industries [1] - It also includes the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium investors [1]