智通财经APP了解到，周黑鸭近日发布业绩盈利预告，预计于2025年上半年实现利润0.9亿元至1.13亿元（不包括分占联营公司盈利与亏损及相关所得税影 响），同比增长55.2%-94.8%。而营收保持韧性，期间实现营收（不包括未完成统计的分占联营公司盈利与亏损及相关所得税影响）在12亿元至12.4亿元。 对于此次业绩增长，该公司披露，一方面得益于平均单店销售效率提升；另一方面，原材料成本下行推动毛利率改善，叠加精益化管理对销售费用率的有效 优化，多重积极因素共同作用，促使公司整体盈利能力显著增强。从同行表现看，煌上煌及绝味虽未出预告，但以第一季度表现看，如绝味股东净利润下滑 27.3%，预计上半年并不乐观。 而在行业脱颖而出的背后，是周黑鸭在坚持长期主义下下，通过产品创新、门店改革以及出海等多维度举措不断换发业务生命力，从规模增长到质量增长这 条路径上，该公司已成为行业发展借鉴的典型模版。 全方位改革提质提效，引领行业盈利大增 智通财经APP了解到，周黑鸭持续推进"门店质量改革"，持续优化门店结构，在去年上半年就实现了利润的逆势增长，一方面毛利率了提升了6个百分点至 58.3%，另一方面期间费用率优化，推动股东 ...

鹏华高质量增长混合型证券投资基金 基金管理人：鹏华基金管理有限公司 基金托管人：中国银行股份有限公司 报告送出日期：2025 年 7 月 18 日 鹏华高质量增长混合 2025 年第 2 季度报告 §1 重要提示 基金管理人的董事会、董事保证本报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带的法律责任。 基金托管人中国银行股份有限公司根据本基金合同规定，于 2025 年 07 月 17 日复核了本报告 中的财务指标、净值表现和投资组合报告等内容，保证复核内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏。 基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利。 基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现。投资有风险，投资者在作出投资决策前应仔细阅读本 基金的招募说明书及其更新。 本报告中财务资料未经审计。 本报告期自 2025 年 04 月 01 日起至 2025 年 06 月 30 日止。 基金主代码 010490 基金运作方式 契约型开放式 投资策略 1、资产配置策略 基金简称 鹏华高质量增长混合 基金合同生效日 2020 年 11 月 18 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 "反内卷"强化供给侧国家治理预期，有 望推动实现更高质量增长 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ "反内卷"旨在治理企业低价无序竞争，引导提升产品品质，推动国家治理预期抬 升再进一步。一些观点认为当前产能利用率偏低的行业更多集中于中下游，"反内 卷"推升价格的作用可能有限，但我们认为，借助"反内卷"一系列措施，政策目 标更侧重质量提升、科技投入、劳动者和中小企业权益呵护，以及地方招商引资模 式优化，化解"内卷式"竞争带来的低效率问题、实现"量增质升"比关注价格本 身更加重要。 ⚫ 价格过度竞争抑制创新活力释放的问题已被重视，自上而下的高规格推动持续在 位，这有望成为各部门、各行动的催化剂。从去年政治局会议、中央经济工作会 议，到今年总书记两会参加地方代表团审议、人民日报 6 月 29 日推出金社平文章 《在破除"内卷式"竞争中实现高质量发展》、中央财经委会议的表态，这一提法 多次高规格地出现，涉及行业也在增加：年初市场监管总局座谈会涉及的行业为新 能源链条（天合光能、晶澳科技、 ...

港股互联网电商投资框架——港股深度培训 20250627 摘要 中国电商平台通过品牌方支付的流量费用实现盈利，而非直接向消费者 收费。GMV（总销售额）是衡量电商平台表现的关键指标，其计算公式 为年度活跃用户数（AAC）乘以人均消费金额（ARPU）。 中国互联网市场已接近饱和，电商平台竞争转向存量用户运营，提高用 户消费频次和客单价成为关键。2020-2023 年消费降级导致客单价下 降，但平台通过复购和订单量提升维持 ARPU 值。 2024 年，电商平台通过减少低质量商品和优化营销策略提升客单价， 实现高质量增长。618 期间，国家补贴政策有效刺激了家电、3C 和家 居类商品的销售，阿里和京东等平台的 GMV 增速达到 9%-10%。 广告变现率是影响平台收入的重要因素。电商平台广告主要分为搜索广 告、信息流广告和展示广告。一级电商（自营）通过销售价差获利，三 级电商（第三方平台）通过广告费和佣金实现货币化。 受监管和补贴政策影响，2020-2024 年中国互联网公司货币化率下降。 但随着高质量增长和反内卷趋势，货币化率有望提升，目前阿里约为 5%，拼多多略高，京东在 3%-5%之间，相较亚马逊仍有提升空 ...

橡树资本掌门人力挺中国市场，称对中国市场保持"非常乐观"，并用独特的"1234"框架诠释这一判断背 后的逻辑。 值得一提的是，橡树资本自1990年代进入中国市场以来，已累计在大中华区投资超过470亿元，投资版 图覆盖股票、债券、不动产等多个领域。 风险提示及免责条款 在这两个转型方面，霍华德·马克斯认为中国已经实现了显著进展，表现出了巨大的进步，但是要在质 和量上均实现飞跃，还需要"3策协同"，即货币政策、财政政策和结构性改革政策，在周期波动中进行 引导和辅助。 "4"则是Marks总结的"四大基本面优势"：中国拥有受教育程度最高且最具工作意愿的劳动力群体之一； 世界最庞大的中产阶级市场；一流的基础设施网络；以及最为全面齐全的供应链体系。 基于长期参与中国金融市场的实践，马克斯提出了两个具体建议。首先是深化投资资产类别的对外开 放。他认为，境内外资产类别存在差异，业务逻辑不尽相同，实现境内外资产业务联动将有利于在华外 资企业的长期健康发展。 其次是优化外资产品准入机制。随着越来越多外资机构落户上海，引入海外策略和产品不仅能活跃资产 管理市场，还能向境内同行分享西方金融投资理念和实践。马克斯建议，应根据市场需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant fluctuations in global markets, the Chinese economy demonstrates unique structural advantages, summarized by Howard Marks as the "1234" characteristics [1] Group 1: Economic Transition - "One" represents a single goal: China is gradually shifting towards a high-quality growth model [1] - The definition of "high-quality growth model" requires two transformations: green transformation and digital transformation, referred to as "Two" [1] - In both green and digital transformations, significant progress has been achieved by China [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that despite significant market volatility, China's economy demonstrates unique structural advantages characterized by four features: a challenge of transitioning to high-quality growth, green and digital transformations, the need for coordinated policies, and strong fundamentals [1] - The first feature is the challenge of transitioning to a high-quality growth model, which requires two transformations: green and digital [1] - The second feature highlights the need for three policy collaborations—monetary, fiscal, and structural reforms—to guide and support economic growth during cyclical fluctuations [1] - The fourth feature outlines four strong fundamentals of China's economy: a highly educated and willing workforce, the largest middle-class market globally, top-notch infrastructure, and a comprehensive supply chain, with manufacturing accounting for 30% of global output [1] Group 2 - To further promote the internationalization of financial markets, two suggestions are proposed: first, to deepen the opening of investment asset classes to allow more international investor participation [2] - The second suggestion is to optimize the foreign product access mechanism, adapting review standards based on product nature and market demand to enhance the operational capabilities of foreign institutions in China [2] - The current global economic integration context encourages foreign institutions to introduce overseas strategies and products into the Chinese market, enriching the asset management market and sharing Western financial investment concepts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, which is expected to positively impact China's economic growth and reduce the need for aggressive policy easing [1][2][4]. Trade Relations - The US has agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing the effective tariff rate from approximately 107% to around 39%, while China will lower its effective tariff rate from 144% to about 30% [1][2]. - The reduction in tariffs exceeds market expectations, indicating a lesser drag on China's economic growth than previously predicted [2]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - China's export growth forecast for 2025 has been revised from -5% to 0%, with net exports now expected to contribute +0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, up from a previous estimate of -0.5 percentage points [4]. - The anticipated policy easing has been adjusted downward, with expectations for further monetary policy easing in the form of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [4][5]. GDP Growth Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised from 4.0% and 3.5% to 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively, due to the improved trade outlook [5][6]. Policy Response - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market confidence, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5% [7]. - The approach to fiscal policy has become more conservative, with a focus on targeted measures rather than broad-based fiscal stimulus [8][9]. Manufacturing Sector Focus - Despite calls for a shift towards consumer-driven growth, the Chinese government continues to prioritize the development of the manufacturing sector, viewing it as a key driver of economic growth [10][11]. - China's manufacturing sector remains robust, with significant global market share and competitive advantages in production costs [11]. Economic Rebalancing - The long-term direction for China's economy is to shift towards domestic demand and household consumption, with potential reforms aimed at enhancing consumer spending and social security systems [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue growth of 18.9% to 4.43 billion yuan, exceeding previous guidance of 15-18%, driven by domestic channel upgrades and inventory optimization [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% to 590 million yuan due to rapid expansion of direct stores and increased financial expenses [1] - The company is shifting its domestic strategy from aggressive expansion to refined operations while enhancing supply chain diversity and localization in overseas markets, which is expected to stabilize profitability and support global expansion [1] Revenue Performance - Domestic same-store sales showed improvement, with Miniso China revenue increasing by 9.1%, driven by offline and online growth of 7.3% and 32.7% respectively [1] - The company closed 111 stores in Q1, focusing on older stores under 200 square meters, while same-store sales decline narrowed to single digits [2] - Overseas revenue grew by 30.3%, with 95 new stores added, particularly in North America [1][2] - TopToy revenue surged by 58.9% to 340 million yuan, with self-developed products accounting for over 40% [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2%, although it decreased by 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal effects [2] - Selling and administrative expense ratios increased by 4.4 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 23.1% and 5.5% respectively, primarily due to significant investments in direct stores [2] - Adjusted net profit margin decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% as a result of increased financial expenses related to convertible bonds and acquisitions [2] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on high-quality growth, with domestic operations centered on same-store sales improvement and enhancing store competitiveness through upgrades [2] - In overseas markets, the company is emphasizing localization and efficiency, with nearly 40% of U.S. purchases sourced locally to mitigate tariff risks [2] - The company aims to improve profitability through refined operations and inventory turnover optimization [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 7.1%, 9.0%, and 9.0% to 2.99 billion, 3.73 billion, and 4.57 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price is set at 47.00 HKD, based on an 18x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting increased uncertainty in overseas expansion [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the adjustments in profit forecasts [3]

Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 2.587 billion, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [1] - Profit attributable to the parent company was 226 million, up 20.26% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 242 million, reflecting a 15.9% increase year-on-year [1] Operational Metrics - Total freight volume for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was 3,045 thousand tons, a 5.9% increase from 2,875 thousand tons for the same period in 2024 [1] - The number of freight partners and agents increased to over 36,000, up from approximately 29,400 a year earlier [1] Service Quality - Total ticket count reached 40,465 thousand, representing a 28.2% year-on-year growth from 31,568 thousand [2] - The loss rate and complaint ticket count improved to 0.02 and 33.2 respectively per 100,000 tickets [2] - Average delivery time was optimized to approximately 65 hours as of March 2025 [2]