瑞银大幅上调白银、铂金和钯金价格预测，预计2026年将呈现"两个半场"行情——上半年价格强势上 涨，下半年回归基本面后回落。这一预测基于市场紧张状况和投资者参与度的影响超出预期，尽管供需 基本面预期未变。 1月13日，据追风交易台消息，瑞银在最新研报中称，白银价格从当前水平仍有约25%的上涨空间，铂 金和钯金则有5-6%的涨幅潜力，但随后价格将在年底前逐步回落。 预测大幅上调：年内呈现"过山车"走势 瑞银最新对白银、铂金和钯金的价格预测进行了实质性上调，以反映近期价格走势，并考虑此前可能低 估的因素。 | | | Old | New | % chq | upside downside | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Gold | 2026E | 4675 | 4675 | 0% | 5200 | 3900 | | | 2027E | 4275 | 4275 | 0% | 2300 | 3575 | | | 2028E | 4000 | 4000 | 0% | 2300 | 3200 | | | 2029E | 3600 | 3600 | 0% ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS significantly raised its price forecasts for silver, platinum, and palladium, predicting a "two halves" market in 2026, with strong price increases in the first half followed by a return to fundamentals and a decline in the second half [1][4]. Price Forecast Adjustments - Silver is expected to rise approximately 25% from current levels, while platinum and palladium have potential increases of 5-6%. However, prices are anticipated to gradually decline by the end of the year [1][9]. - The new price forecasts for silver in 2026 have been raised from $56.0 to $78.8, reflecting a 41% increase. Platinum's forecast increased from $1,500 to $1,925 (28% increase), and palladium's forecast rose from $1,450 to $1,670 (15% increase) [5]. Market Dynamics - The core driver for the price adjustments is the surge in trading activity in the Chinese market, particularly in silver futures, which has exceeded expectations and amplified the impact of market tightness on spot prices [2][12]. - UBS noted that the increase in investor participation has made alternative assets like precious metals more attractive, with gold being the primary beneficiary, although interest is spreading across the entire precious metals sector [12][16]. Supply and Demand Considerations - Despite the upward price adjustments, UBS maintains that the fundamental supply and demand outlook remains unchanged. However, the impact of market tightness and increased investor participation on spot prices has been greater than anticipated [4][10]. - The report highlights that the overall silver inventory in China has been declining since 2020, reflecting weak industrial demand and excess capacity in the solar industry, but an improvement in industrial demand and increased investment interest could trigger a replenishment cycle, potentially driving prices higher [16]. Gold Outlook - UBS reiterated its bullish outlook on gold, expecting further increases in the first half of the year, with a potential upside of about 9% from current levels [3][17]. - The report emphasizes that ongoing political uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to support gold's appeal as a diversification tool in investment portfolios [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are predicted to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with silver prices having increased nearly 125% this year, while platinum and palladium prices have rebounded to 17-year and 3-year highs respectively [1] - The influx of investments in 2025 is expected to grow by 56.1% compared to 2020, reaching a record $77.3 billion [3] - There is a significant rise in investment demand for platinum bars and coins in China, as reported by the World Platinum Investment Council [3] Group 2 - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is anticipated to provide domestic platinum users with a regulated tool to hedge against price fluctuations [3] - Gold prices in euros have surpassed €3,700 per ounce, reflecting a 47.5% increase in 2025, while gold prices in pounds have rebounded to £3,240 per ounce, marking a 55.5% increase year-to-date [3] - Palladium prices reached a three-year high of nearly $1,720 before experiencing a decline, with a weekly increase of 12.9% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold price growth will slow down by 2026 due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds, but expected interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will maintain upward momentum for gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market - By Q4 2026, gold prices are expected to reach $4,800 per ounce, driven by increased retail demand in China, stronger central bank purchasing power, and global growth concerns [1] - The anticipated decline in purchases by central banks and ETFs will contribute to a moderation in gold price growth [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver's performance is expected to lag behind gold due to a projected decrease in solar equipment installations by 2026, leading to a peak in silver shortages by 2025 [1] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium - Platinum prices are forecasted to be $1,775 per ounce by 2026, while palladium prices are expected to reach $1,325 per ounce, reflecting structural imbalances and changes in demand drivers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold price growth will slow down by 2026 due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds, although expected interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will maintain upward momentum for gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market Predictions - By Q4 2026, gold prices are expected to reach $4,800 per ounce, driven by increased retail demand in China, enhanced central bank purchasing power, and global growth concerns [1] - The anticipated decline in gold price growth is attributed to a decrease in purchases from central banks and ETFs [1] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - Silver is expected to underperform compared to gold, as the installation of solar equipment is projected to decline in 2026, leading to a peak in silver shortages by 2025 [1] Group 3: Other Precious Metals Forecast - Platinum prices are forecasted to be $1,775 per ounce by 2026, while palladium prices are expected to reach $1,325 per ounce, reflecting structural imbalances and changes in demand drivers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold price growth will slow down by 2026 due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds, although anticipated interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will sustain upward momentum for gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - By the fourth quarter of 2026, gold prices are expected to reach $4,800 per ounce, driven by increased retail demand in China, enhanced central bank purchasing power, and global growth concerns [1] - The forecast indicates that the demand dynamics for gold remain positive despite the anticipated slowdown in price growth [1] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - Silver is expected to underperform compared to gold, primarily due to a decline in solar equipment installations projected for 2026 [1] - The shortage of silver is anticipated to peak in 2025, impacting its market performance [1] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Prices - Platinum prices are forecasted to be $1,775 per ounce by 2026, while palladium prices are expected to reach $1,325 per ounce [1] - These projections reflect structural imbalances and changes in demand drivers within the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Heraeus Precious Metals predicts a downward trend in the prices of gold, silver, and platinum group metals in the first half of 2026, following previous price increases that pushed gold and silver to high levels and platinum group metals to record highs [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Gold and silver prices are expected to face downward pressure due to a potential loss of momentum after recent price increases [1] - Platinum group metals may experience significant downward pressure due to weak industrial demand, despite a currently tight market [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The precious metals market may be affected by slowing economic growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing transformations in the automotive industry, leading to increased price volatility in the first half of 2026 [1] - Strong central bank demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to provide solid support for gold prices [1] Group 3: Specific Metal Insights - Silver prices are anticipated to be more volatile due to industrial headwinds [1] - The palladium market is expected to continue facing oversupply as the market share of pure electric vehicles increases [1] - China remains a key factor in global demand trends, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" promoting green hydrogen and fuel cell technology, which may benefit the demand for ruthenium and iridium in the long term [1]

Group 1 - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) predicts that gold prices will reach $4,980 per ounce in the next 12 months, representing a 27% increase from current levels [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 52%, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [1] - Gold prices surpassed $3,000 per ounce in March and $4,000 per ounce in October, both seen as significant psychological resistance levels [1] Group 2 - The LBMA's annual survey indicates that silver prices are expected to rise from approximately $46 per ounce to $59 per ounce within a year [2] - Silver prices have increased by 62% year-to-date, the largest rise since 2010, driven by strong investment demand and supply tightness in the London spot market [2] - Silver reached a historical high of $54.5 per ounce on October 17 due to increased purchasing from India [2] Group 3 - Platinum prices are forecasted to rise from $1,544 per ounce to $1,816 per ounce, while palladium prices are expected to increase from about $1,364 to $1,709 [3] - Year-to-date, platinum and palladium prices have risen by 76% and 54%, respectively, amid supply constraints and concerns over U.S. tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000 per ounce, up from the previous forecast of $3,700 per ounce. Additionally, the silver price forecast has been increased to $45 per ounce from $40 [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's revised gold price forecast indicates a bullish outlook for the precious metal market [1] - The increase in silver price forecast reflects a similar positive sentiment towards silver [1]

Core Insights - A Reuters survey predicts that the average price of gold will reach $3,400 per ounce by 2026, while silver is expected to average $38 per ounce during the same period [1] Group 1 - The forecasted average price for gold in 2026 represents a significant increase from current levels, indicating strong future demand and potential investment opportunities in the precious metals market [1] - The anticipated average price for silver also reflects a bullish outlook, suggesting that both gold and silver may benefit from macroeconomic factors influencing commodity prices [1]