证券日报网讯2月26日，贵研铂业（600459）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司铂族金属原料主 要来自公司二次资源循环利用板块，同时也从国内相关市场主体进行采购。公司投资建设的东营再生资 源基地建成投产后，铂族金属的年产能规模将得到进一步的提升。 ...

（原标题：非洲金属热潮遇现实冲击） 尽管过去一年金属价格涨势惊人（黄金涨幅超70%、白银近翻三倍、铜价上涨超40%），曾推动各国财 政增收、货币走强并吸引矿业投资，但此次回调表明相关利好或转瞬即逝。经济学家指出，市场动荡应 加速经济多元化进程，制造业、农产品加工、数字服务及区域贸易比单一出口更能支撑稳定增长，南部 非洲多国也已承诺将矿业收入投向基础设施、技能培训及主权财富基金，对非洲资源富国而言，金属热 潮虽未消退但绝非稳赚不赔，关键在于各国政府能否在下次市场下行前构建更具韧性的多元化经济体 系。 据"非洲简报"2月4日报道，全球金属市场下滑给非洲矿业大国带来严峻现实考验，暴露了大宗商品依赖 型经济结构的脆弱性。 过去数月黄金、白银、铜价持续飙升，但上周全球金融市场剧烈回调，南部非洲多国货币、股市及投资 者信心遭重创。这一事件凸显核心隐患：国家收入若严重依赖单一大宗商品出口，即便短期市场波动， 也可能快速动摇货币稳定、财政预算与投资者信心。 赞比亚受冲击同样显著，此前表现亮眼的赞比亚克瓦查大幅走弱。铜占该国出口收入超70%，全球铜价 小幅波动便会对其经济造成明显影响。 南非方面，约翰内斯堡证券交易所（JSE） ...

《先驱报》2月4日报道，2025年津巴布韦矿产品（不含黄金和白银）出口表现强劲，出口量达480 万吨，创汇34亿美元，超出既定目标。采矿业贡献了津60%至80%以上的出口收入，其中铂族金属、 锂、铬和铁合金是主要支柱。若计入黄金，津2025年外汇收入同比增长21.8%，达到162亿美元。 具体来看，铂族金属通过推进本地选矿和深加工，精矿出口下降但高附加值的铂族金属锍出口额大 幅增长，成为重要收入来源；锂出口量和收入双双超出预期，进一步巩固了津巴布韦在全球电池矿产市 场的地位。铁合金、钢铁出口显著增长，而铬精矿受价格下行影响收入有所回落。 （原标题：2025年津巴布韦矿产出口增长14%） ...

Group 1: Key Drivers of Volatility in Precious Metals - The sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market in early 2026 are driven by a combination of short-term policy shocks, mid-term supply-demand restructuring, and long-term monetary system changes [1] - Short-term triggers include concerns over policy shifts following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, leading to a rebound in the dollar index and suppressing precious metal valuations [1] - Increased margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) for gold and silver have exacerbated market volatility, forcing high-leverage long positions to liquidate [1] Group 2: Mid-term Structural Contradictions - The industrial demand for precious metals, particularly silver, is experiencing explosive growth due to the deepening of the renewable energy revolution, with silver demand for photovoltaic applications reaching 55% [2] - In contrast, mineral supply growth remains constrained, with South African platinum group metal production down 5% and Russian palladium export quotas reduced by 18.75% [2] - The tightening supply situation has led to a significant reduction in inventories, with LBMA gold stocks falling to 7,200 tons, covering less than 30 days of consumption [2] Group 3: Long-term Underlying Logic - The acceleration of de-dollarization is a core logic supporting the long-term value of precious metals, with global central bank gold reserves expected to rise to 15.1% by 2025 [2] - The deepening debt crisis in the U.S., with federal debt to GDP surpassing 126%, is driving demand for precious metals as a "ultimate trust anchor" [2] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating Middle East issues, are normalizing safe-haven demand, contributing 35% to gold price volatility in 2025 [3] Group 4: Characteristics of Precious Metal Volatility - Current market volatility in precious metals shows a high leverage characteristic, with silver futures leverage exceeding 20 times, making price fluctuations more sensitive compared to gold [4] - The sensitivity of the market to events is increasing, with significant impacts from Fed policy meetings and geopolitical conflicts, leading to daily volatility rates exceeding 15% in January 2026 [5] Group 5: Future Trends in Precious Metals - In the short term (Q2-Q3 2026), the precious metals market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with gold needing to break through $4,600 per ounce to confirm a trend reversal [6] - In the mid-term (Q4 2026-2027), a structural bull market is anticipated, supported by rigid supply-demand dynamics, with global central bank gold purchases expected to remain above 800 tons annually [8] - UBS forecasts gold prices to reach $6,350 per ounce and silver prices to potentially exceed $150 per ounce by 2027, although potential risks from technological advancements in hydrogen catalysts and photovoltaic materials could impact demand [8] Group 6: Investor Strategies - The core asset allocation strategy suggests positioning gold as a "ballast" in portfolios (5%-10%) and silver as a "satellite" position (3%-5%) [9] - Investors are advised to establish a "gold + oil" hedging strategy to mitigate geopolitical risks and utilize "silver-copper" spread trading to capture industrial demand elasticity [10] - Conservative investors should prioritize gold ETFs and physical gold to avoid leverage risks, while aggressive investors may consider gold mining stocks and silver futures with stop-loss measures [11]

从板块整体走势来看，金银波动对板块情绪带动明显。针对金银，花旗持短期谨慎态度，认为获利盘兑 现可能冲击市场，摩根大通则坚定看多，预测2026年底金价升至6300美元/盎司，看好央行与投资者需 求的支撑作用。对于板块内其他品种，机构认为铝市供需偏紧格局难改、铜及铂族金属受地缘制裁支 撑，稀土受益于战略储备与需求增长。 2月3日，沪深两市早盘探底回升，盘面上，有色金属板块整体迎来回暖。截至上午收盘，中证有色指数 下跌0.54%，个股方面，中稀有色涨超 8%，国城矿业、云南锗业、盛和资源、钢研高纳涨超 4%。 热门ETF方面，有色金属ETF(159871)上涨2.56%，上午最高涨近4%，盘中成交额达1.09亿元，换手率达 10.42%。同花顺数据显示，该基金近6个月涨78.07%，近1年涨110.29%。 消息面上，前期板块受短期情绪扰动出现剧烈波动，金银及沪铜、沪铝等品种同步承压；2月3日回暖态 势明确，金银率先发力，现货黄金日内最高涨幅超4%，触及4850美元/盎司，现货白银涨幅一度扩大至 7%，纽约期银日内涨超11%，沪铜企稳回升，稀土板块亦同步回暖，避险需求与逢低买盘推动板块整 体情绪修复。其他细分品种方 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Africa's mining production experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.7% in November 2025, primarily driven by decreases in coal, iron ore, platinum group metals, and gold production [1]. Group 1: Production Changes - Coal production fell by 7.9%, contributing a decline of 2.1 percentage points [1]. - Iron ore production decreased by 7.6%, contributing a decline of 1.1 percentage points [1]. - Platinum group metals production dropped by 2.8%, contributing a decline of 0.8 percentage points [1]. - Gold production declined by 6%, contributing a decline of 0.5 percentage points [1]. - Conversely, manganese ore emerged as the largest contributor with a production increase of 17%, contributing 1.1 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Seasonally Adjusted Data - Seasonally adjusted mining production in November decreased by 5.9%, following a growth of 2.7% in October and 2% in September [3]. - For the period from September to November, seasonally adjusted mining production showed a growth of 1.6%, with platinum group metals, iron ore, and manganese ore being the largest contributors [3]. Group 3: Sales Performance - In nominal terms, mining product sales in November experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, with gold, coal, and iron ore being the largest detractors [5]. - Gold sales plummeted by 27.9%, contributing a decline of 6 percentage points [5]. - Coal sales decreased by 15%, contributing a decline of 3.8 percentage points [5]. - Iron ore sales fell by 16.6%, contributing a decline of 1.7 percentage points [5]. - The largest contributor to sales growth was platinum group metals, which increased by 42.3%, contributing 9.7 percentage points [5]. - Seasonally adjusted mining product sales value decreased by 2.4% month-on-month in November, following a decline of 0.9% in October [5].

Precious Metals Industry - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves to diversify risk, with China's central bank having increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [1] - The global monetary easing expectations are rising, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of precious and non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1] - The market for precious metals is expected to experience a broad rally starting in early 2026, characterized by a resonance between financial and industrial attributes [1] - Key players in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Guoyuan Platinum, all of which are focusing on optimizing production and expanding operations [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The demand for non-ferrous metals such as silver, copper, and aluminum is growing due to the rigid requirements from emerging industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers [1] - The market dynamics for non-ferrous metals are changing, driven by both traditional infrastructure demand and new energy sectors [1] - Major companies in the non-ferrous metals sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, and Tin Industry Co., which are involved in mining, refining, and processing of various metals [4]

从短期走势看，经季节性调整后，2025年11月南非矿业产量环比下降5.9%。不过，从阶段性表现来 看，截至11月的三个月矿业产量较此前三个月仍增长1.6%，显示行业整体仍具一定韧性。 分析人士指出，美国关税政策引发的通胀压力、国际大宗商品市场波动以及南非国内物流和基础设施瓶 颈，仍是影响该国矿业稳定增长的主要因素。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经约翰内斯堡1月21日电（记者靳博文） 南非统计局20日数据显示，2025年11月该国矿业产量同 比下降2.7%，为该国矿业自2025年4月以来首次出现同比下滑，最新数据亦明显低于市场此前普遍预期 的3.9%增幅。 数据显示，矿业整体走弱主要受多项核心矿产品产量下降拖累。其中，煤炭产量同比下降7.9%，铁矿 石下降7.6%，铂族金属下降2.8%，黄金下降6.0%。但与此同时，锰矿产量同比增长17%，表现相对强 劲，在一定程度上对整体矿业产量形成对冲支撑。 除产量波动外，持续攀升的运营成本亦对南非矿业形成长期制约。南非矿业理事会日前发布数据显示， 2025年11月该国电力成本同比飙升近16%，水成本同比上涨11.6%，劳动力成本亦同比上升约6%。高企 的生产成本已导致近 ...

特朗普总统依据《贸易扩展法》第232条款签署关键矿产进口行政令，认定其构成国家安全威胁，但暂未立即实施关税措 施。该命令设定了180天谈判窗口期，要求通过双边协商调整关键矿产贸易流向，并授权采取包括价格下限在内的替代性 调控手段。 摩根大通分析指出，此行政令释放了相对缓和的监管信号，尤其与先前对精炼铜产品直接加征50%关税的232条款案例形 成鲜明对比。虽然行政令中保留了未来实施关税的可能性，但当前政策明显更侧重于针对稀土类产品的精准管控，未将 贵金属列为直接调控对象。 摩根大通最新研究报告指出，232项关键矿产行政令采取了相对温和的监管姿态，暂未对白银等贵金属加征关税，这一政 策环境对市场构成利好。该行对黄金保持较强看涨信心，同时警告白银市场存在显著回调风险。 据追风交易台，报告分析称，白银市场已出现多重预警信号：价格大幅脱离基本面预测，ETF持续呈现资金净流出，工 业需求承压，且非美地区供应趋于宽松。尤其值得关注的是，白银价格自圣诞节以来上涨约25%，同期ETF却净流出约 1800万盎司，显示市场出现罕见背离。 暂缓关税 该机构认为，此举反映出"谈判优先于征税"的政策思路，既保留了关税作为后续谈判筹码，又 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent struggle between the U.S. administration and monetary authorities has pushed gold and silver to historical highs, but investors are advised to remain calm as the risk structure in the gold market is undergoing profound changes not seen in years [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current risk in the gold market exhibits a clear dual volatility characteristic, with macroeconomic concerns supporting premiums [1][3] - GTC ZEH Capital believes that platinum group metals currently have more strategic allocation value in terms of premium space and growth potential compared to the high-priced gold and silver [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have not led to panic fluctuations in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield or term premiums, with the foreign exchange market remaining stable [1][3] - The dramatic reaction in the precious metals market highlights its role as a hedging tool, with gold's price increase primarily driven by expectations of a weakened dollar as a store of value [1][3] Group 3: Institutional Trust and Future Outlook - GTC ZEH Capital suggests that Fed Chairman Powell's role may shift to being a cornerstone of market trust while the credibility of U.S. institutions faces challenges, particularly with an upcoming Supreme Court decision regarding Fed governors [4] - Although there are aggressive expectations for gold prices to reach $5,000, GTC ZEH Capital warns that gold's volatility has risen to high levels, and concentrated institutional holdings in major gold ETFs could lead to more severe price corrections if market sentiment reverses [4] - Looking towards 2026, while there is potential for further depreciation trades, risks of tactical retreats exist, and unless there are significant missteps in U.S. fiscal or monetary policy, gold is unlikely to maintain a one-sided upward trend [4]