Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, Hong Kong stocks outperformed A-shares overall, but weakened in the second half due to a stronger USD, slowing southbound capital inflow, and deteriorating fundamentals[6] - In 2026, three factors are expected to drive a rebound in Hong Kong stocks: a weaker USD, appreciation of the RMB attracting overseas Chinese capital, and a recovery in inflation and potential debt reduction policies[6][8] Group 2: Capital Flows - The first gate: A weaker USD in 2026 is likely to drive international capital to allocate more to Hong Kong stocks[8] - The second gate: RMB appreciation in 2026 is expected to attract a significant amount of overseas Chinese capital into Hong Kong stocks, which will be smoother than southbound capital that faces opportunity costs and exchange rate risks[11][60] - The third gate: Recovery in cash flow statements and balance sheets of the real economy in 2026 will mark the beginning of economic prosperity in China[12] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "Davis Triple Play" is anticipated for the Hang Seng Technology Index in 2026, with structural opportunities in innovative drugs and new consumption continuing[14][95] - Hong Kong stocks' dividend yield is expected to continue outperforming A-shares, with a long-term higher dividend rate attracting absolute return funds[120] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong is expected to see significant growth as Chinese companies improve their R&D capabilities and close the valuation gap with U.S. counterparts[126] Group 4: Risks - Risks include changes in international situations, unexpected increases in U.S. Treasury yields, and shifts in industrial policies[13][141]

那底层逻辑的话呢也比较简单，也就是说海外的资本认为人民币会不断升值，也就它会抛售美元持有人 民币，那他又不会在场内简单的持有人民币，他大概率会在整个香港的一个资本市场上，我无论说是去 买恒生科技，还是去配置一部分比如港股红利这种资产，那我吃两份钱，一个是人民币升值我能挣钱， 一个是什么？呀我比如说我持有股红利，我能拿到红利的一部分的收入，那其实这个就是底层一个逻 辑，我们会发现明显的一个负相关性，那在这个时间节点的话人民币不断走强，我们就可以考虑配置一 部分资产到恒生科技或者港股这一边。 这个人民币汇率的一旦走强，其实对黄金咱们持有黄金的兄弟姐妹来讲是比较被动的，因为他在不断的 侵蚀你持有黄金的一个利润，因为你的黄金是以人民币计价，那如果人民币越来越强，你的黄金的价格 就不像之前那么高了，我一直想给大家去做一个对冲的一个策略，也就是说有没有什么产品在人民币升 值的时候，它大概率会去涨，那对冲一下我持有这个黄金收益被侵蚀的这一部分那有没有？和讯投顾葛 鋆隆认为其实是有的，黄颜色的是恒生科技指数，那底下的彩色的线呢就是人民币汇率，那我们会发现 两者有比较明显的一个负相关性，啊那当恒生科技涨的时候，我们会发现人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share innovation index ended the third quarter with a 49.02% increase, but the fourth quarter faces multiple variables, including renewed US-China trade tensions, fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the approaching "accounting period" for institutions, leading experts to warn of increased risks while maintaining a "slow bull" market outlook [1][2][5]. Market Trends - Experts agree that the "slow bull" market pattern remains intact, but opportunities for easy gains are diminishing, and volatility is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter [2][3]. Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - Current market conditions show that retail investors have not entered the market on a large scale, and institutions remain hesitant, indicating that the core logic of the slow bull market is still valid. However, the previous trend of "buying the right sectors to make big profits" is unlikely to be replicated in the fourth quarter, with faster sector rotations expected [3][4]. Macro Perspective - From a macroeconomic perspective, the underlying factors supporting the slow bull market, such as marginal improvements in corporate profits and continued policy support for new consumption and high-end manufacturing, remain unchanged. Short-term events like trade policies and Federal Reserve interest rate changes are seen as catalysts rather than trends [4][5]. Identified Risks - Two major risks for the fourth quarter have been highlighted: 1. The "accounting period selling pressure" from absolute return funds, particularly affecting high-valuation sectors like technology and new consumption [6]. 2. Increasing divergence in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which could impact global asset pricing and lead to volatility in A-shares and other markets [6][8]. Investment Strategies - Experts recommend a balanced approach to investment, emphasizing "long-term views with short-term actions" and a "barbell strategy" to manage risk and returns. This involves allocating to both high-valuation sectors with long-term potential and low-valuation defensive assets [9][10]. - Monthly portfolio reviews and clear definitions of acceptable drawdown limits are advised to avoid impulsive trading decisions [10]. Focus Areas for Investment - Investors are encouraged to focus on three asset categories: 1. New consumption and high-end manufacturing sectors benefiting from policy support 2. Low-valuation high-dividend assets in Hong Kong and A-share markets 3. Safe-haven assets like gold ETFs and public REITs [10][11]. Conclusion - The fourth quarter is characterized as a period of volatility within a slow bull market, requiring investors to enhance their asset allocation skills and maintain a focus on managing drawdowns while seizing structural opportunities [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement on October 23 indicates that fund manager He Qi will no longer manage the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 fund due to internal company arrangements, with co-manager Li Qian taking over management responsibilities starting from October 22, 2025 [1] Group 1: Fund Management Changes - He Qi has a background in economics from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has held various positions at Huatai-PB Fund Management, including senior trader and fund manager [1] - Li Qian holds a master's degree in financial mathematics from the London School of Economics and has been with Huatai-PB Fund Management since March 2015, progressing from assistant researcher to fund manager [2] Group 2: Fund Performance and Structure - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 fund was established on December 30, 2020, with an initial size of 639 million yuan, which grew to 2.333 billion yuan by June 30, 2025 [3] - The fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, aiming to closely track the performance of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index with a daily tracking deviation of less than 0.2% and an annualized tracking error of less than 2% [3] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The fund has achieved a return of 30.02% year-to-date, 31.04% over the past year, and 16.39% since inception [4] - Under He Qi's management from December 30, 2020, to the present, the fund's return was 17.34%, outperforming the peer average of 12.63% [4] - The fund has not distributed any dividends since its inception [3]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.34%, marking six consecutive days of gains, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.46% and the ChiNext Index rose nearly 2% [2] - Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices reached new highs for the year during intraday trading [2] Driving Factors - The recent market uptrend is attributed to a combination of favorable policies, improvements in corporate fundamentals, liquidity, and a recovery in investor confidence [3][5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent decision to control the pace of IPOs alleviated concerns about capital diversion, contributing to market stability [3] - The lithium battery sector saw a boost due to supply chain dynamics and seasonal demand in the electric vehicle market, further supporting related industries [3] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on new productivity, "anti-involution" policies, and domestic demand recovery as key investment themes [5][7] - The AI sector is highlighted as a promising area, particularly in terms of overseas computing power and domestic AI model advancements [6][7] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to benefit midstream manufacturing and upstream raw materials sectors, while domestic economic stabilization may strengthen cyclical stocks [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite potential short-term volatility, the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued upward trends in the medium term [5][6] - The influx of new capital and improving profit expectations for A-shares are anticipated to support a positive market trajectory [5][6]