文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘盘中下跌，到收盘变成上涨，还在4.4星。 医药消费等指数比较坚挺。 最近市场波动，红利、现金流、医药消费等估值相对低一些的品种，整体波动比大盘更小。 低估还是会起到一些保护作用。 港股今天上涨比较多。 上周五港股科技、恒生科技指数下跌回到低估， 今天港股科技股上涨超2%，上涨后距离正常估值也比较接近。 今年三季度港股科技股延续了盈利同比增长良好，基本面没啥问题。 主要是短期市场流动性引发了波动。 沪深300等大盘股下跌，小微盘股上涨较多。 价值风格略微下跌。 成长风格到收盘的时候跌幅变小。 港股科技、恒生科技等是同类品种。 港股科技是中证指数公司编制，历史更长一些。 恒生科技是恒生指数公司编制。 两者股票重合比较大，估值位置也接近。 区别在于港股科技覆盖的股票数量更多，类似恒生科技+恒生医疗的效果（港股科技增加了一些生物科技的股票）。 今年港股医药的基本面也很强，带动港股科技上涨比恒生科技还多一些。 2. 今年A股港股，基本面出现了复苏，上市公司盈利同比增长速度提升。 其中，A股港股，都是科技股的盈利同比增长速度最高。 A股的代表是创业板、科创板；港股的代表是港 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.97% to close at 25,716 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.79% to 9,079 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbing by 2.78% to 5,545 points, ending a streak of declines [1][2]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced a collective recovery, with Kuaishou rising over 7%, NetEase and Bilibili increasing over 5%, and Alibaba, Baidu, Meituan, Tencent, JD.com, and Xiaomi all showing gains [4][5]. - The defense sector saw significant gains, with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation surging nearly 13%, and other defense stocks like AVIC and Aerospace Holdings also rising [6][7]. - The biopharmaceutical sector performed well, with notable increases in companies such as Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine, reflecting a growing interest in quality Chinese biotech firms [5][6]. Investment Insights - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities noted that the AI wave is not over, and the inflow of new capital along with the gathering of quality assets may continue to support a bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market [4]. - The real estate sector showed strength, with companies like Country Garden and China Overseas Development rising over 2%, as analysts remain optimistic about the recovery of core cities and the potential for value reassessment in commercial properties [7][8]. International Influences - Semiconductor and chip stocks faced downward pressure, particularly after news that the U.S. may allow the sale of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, impacting companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC [9][10]. - Oil stocks declined as international crude oil prices continued to fall, with major oil companies like CNOOC and PetroChina seeing losses due to ongoing market assessments of geopolitical developments [8][9]. Capital Flows - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 2.604 billion, indicating continued interest from mainland investors in Hong Kong stocks [10]. Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggested that investor sentiment is heavily influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, with a potential for continued volatility in the market [12].

2025年11月24日盘中，恒生科技指数盘中走强，截至2025年11月24日 13:06，恒生科技指数强势上涨 1.61%，成分股网易-S上涨5.67%，快手-W上涨5.00%，蔚来-SW上涨4.24%，阿里巴巴-W，腾讯音乐- SW等个股跟涨。 华泰证券认为，国内资产重估主线脉络未变，资金寻找核心资产的诉求也未变，但估值向盈利的切换和 内外资的重新平衡要求配置思路需要更加去伪存真。港股本轮调整相对 A 股更早、跌幅也更深，当前 位置或已经开始具备配置价值。其中，港股科技板块近期回调较多，在风险偏好回落下对正面催化敏感 度下降，流动性环境改善后或仍有重估机会。 恒生科技ETF嘉实(159741)紧密跟踪恒生科技指数，恒生科技指数代表经筛选后最大30间与科技主题高 度相关的香港上市公司，是布局港股市场具有科技属性和成长属性公司的便利工具。 数据显示，截至2025年11月21日，恒生科技指数前十大权重股分别为阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、中芯国 际、美团-W、网易-S、比亚迪股份、小米集团-W、京东集团-SW、快手-W、携程集团-S，前十大权重 股合计占比69.55%。 消息面上，零跑汽车11月24日港交所公告，根据恒 ...

零跑汽车(9863.HK)盘中拉升，大涨超7%，报50.75港元。消息面上，恒生指数公司11月21日宣布截至2025年9月30日的恒生指数系列季度检讨结果，恒 生科技指数成份股将纳入零跑汽车，变动将于2025年12月5日(星期五)收市后实施，并将于2025年12月8日(星期一)起生效。 恒生科技指数是港股核心科技标杆指数，入选恒科的公司代表了港股市场科技属性最强、最具成长性的30家公司，聚焦资讯科技、智能制造等核心赛 道，被市场称为"港版纳斯达克"。目前该指数成分股已涵盖小米、理想汽车、小鹏汽车等科技型主机厂，比亚迪也于2025年6月正式纳入。分析人士指 出，零跑汽车的加入进一步完善了新能源汽车产业链的指数布局，是该公司在科技创新、研发投入、收入增长、市值和流动性等方面所得到的来自资本 市场的重要认可。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Hong Kong's technology stocks is attributed to short-term factors, but the long-term investment logic remains intact, suggesting continued value in the sector [2][4][13]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent Decline - The decline in Hong Kong technology stocks is influenced by multiple short-term factors, including hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which dampened expectations for short-term interest rate cuts [2]. - The market is experiencing a lack of significant policy news as the year-end approaches, leading to a cautious attitude among investors, particularly in sectors that have seen substantial gains earlier in the year [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Fundamentals - Despite the recent downturn, the fundamentals of Hong Kong technology companies remain strong, with major firms in the internet and semiconductor sectors reporting stable earnings growth, exceeding expectations [4]. - The ongoing advancements in domestic AI models are expected to stimulate a new wave of AI applications, benefiting the related industry chain [4][5]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - The valuation of Hong Kong technology stocks remains attractive, with the Guotai Junan Hong Kong Technology Index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.50, significantly lower than the over 40 times of the US Nasdaq index [5]. - The current valuation is at a historical low, positioned below the 62nd percentile of the past decade, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario for investors [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, "smart money" continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases from southbound funds exceeding 5 trillion HKD, marking a historical high [12]. - The overall investment logic supporting Hong Kong technology stocks has not fundamentally changed, suggesting that investors can maintain confidence and patience during market fluctuations [13].

在恒生指数有限公司（以下简称恒生指数公司）位于中国香港中环的总部内，有一面充满历史气息的 数 字 背 景 墙 。其 中 的"19691124"，代表恒生指数（以下或简称恒指）诞生的日子，"19940808"则代 表恒生中国企业指数的问世日期。这些数字，浓缩了香港金融市场半个多世纪的波澜壮阔与不断发展。 1997年7月1日，香港尖沙咀东部的大厦挂上了庆祝香港回归祖国的灯饰。巫婉雯在这一年加入恒生指数 公司（旧称恒生指数服务公司），自此开启了与香港金融市场同行的旅途。 从最初仅有7人的服务性质公司一路走来，如今恒生指数公司已成为一家国际性指数公司，旗下港股指 数已在中国内地获60只相关ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）追踪，恒生指数系列挂钩的产品横跨全球17 个市场。在这个历程中，巫婉雯从基层职员一路升至董事、行政总裁兼客户管理总监，她的职业生涯几 乎完整映照了中国香港和中国内地金融市场的崛起与转型，她也亲身参与并推动了多项与恒指有关的里 程碑事件。 2025年，港股市场迎来强势反弹，IPO（首次公开募股）募资额重返全球第一，恒指年内涨幅一度突破 30%，科技、消费、生物科技等领域协同发力，南向资金与海外资本双向涌入 ...

Group 1 - The core initiative is the "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Investment Open Class," aimed at enhancing financial literacy and investment opportunities for residents [1][3] - The 2025 capital market is expected to present structural opportunities, with a recovering domestic economy and stable corporate earnings, while the Hong Kong stock market shows strong performance [1][3] - The "Fixed Income +" strategy is highlighted as a key investment choice for balancing safety and returns in the current market environment [1] Group 2 - The "Fixed Income +" investment strategy is characterized by its defensive and offensive capabilities, making it a more stable investment option [4] - The strategy requires a broad perspective on asset allocation, covering both bonds and stocks, necessitating detailed research and investment decisions across various sectors [5][6] - Macro analysis is emphasized as a crucial framework for guiding asset comparisons and selections, with industry research providing a mid-level perspective [6] Group 3 - Key macro judgments since 2021 include significant insights into energy-related investments and manufacturing investment trends, impacting overall investment strategies [8][9] - The energy supply-demand mismatch has led to power shortages, prompting a focus on energy-related investment opportunities [9] - The shift from real estate to manufacturing investment has influenced corporate profitability and economic structure, with manufacturing investment compensating for the decline in real estate investment [9][10] Group 4 - The bond market is transitioning to a pro-cyclical asset characteristic, with manufacturing investment changes serving as a leading indicator for price movements [11] - The stock market is expected to adjust from a "barbell" investment strategy to a focus on sustainable dividends and growth potential in small-cap stocks [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is witnessing a growing number of technology companies, with the Hang Seng Technology Index becoming a significant benchmark [13][14] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown strong historical performance, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index, indicating the importance of the tech sector in China's economic development [18] - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautiously optimistic, with low valuations providing support for potential upward movement [19][20] - The influx of overseas capital and the increasing recognition of Hong Kong stocks by mainland investors are contributing to market strength [21][22] Group 6 - Investment strategies in the Hong Kong market focus on high dividend yields and high growth potential, particularly in technology stocks [22] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently undervalued compared to historical averages, presenting an attractive investment opportunity [22][23] - The index's growth potential is supported by strong earnings forecasts for its constituent companies, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the launch of the "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Investment Open Class" to enhance financial literacy and investment opportunities for residents, while addressing the structural opportunities in the capital market for 2025 [1][3]. Market Overview - The capital market in 2025 is expected to present structural opportunities, with a gradual recovery in the domestic economy and stabilization in corporate profits. The manufacturing investment is shifting from "overall increase" to "structural optimization" [1]. - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index ranking among the top global markets in the first three quarters of 2025, and the Hang Seng Technology Index demonstrating significant growth potential [1]. Investment Strategies - The "Fixed Income +" strategy is highlighted as a stable investment choice, balancing safety and returns in the current market environment. This strategy encompasses a broader range of assets, including both bonds and stocks, requiring a comprehensive understanding of different asset classes [6][8]. - The investment approach combines top-down macro analysis with bottom-up research, focusing on the importance of macroeconomic factors in driving asset price movements [9]. Key Macro Judgments - Two significant macro judgments have been made since 2021: the energy sector's dynamics and the outlook for manufacturing investment from 2023 to 2024. The energy supply-demand mismatch has led to power shortages, prompting investments in energy-related opportunities [11][12]. - The shift from real estate to manufacturing investment has impacted corporate profitability, with manufacturing investment compensating for the decline in real estate investment [12][13]. Market Outlook and Asset Allocation - The A-share market is likely entering a profit recovery phase, driven by supply-side adjustments rather than demand expansion. This differs from previous profit recovery cycles [16][17]. - For bonds, the focus should be on price movements influenced by manufacturing investment trends, while for stocks, the investment strategy may shift from a "barbell" approach to a focus on sustainable dividends and growth potential [17][18]. Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a resurgence, with a notable increase in technology stocks since 2018, leading to the establishment of the Hang Seng Technology Index [20][22]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown a cumulative return of 115% since its inception, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, indicating the strong growth potential of the technology sector [27]. Future Expectations - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautiously optimistic, with low valuations providing support for future growth. The market has regained its status as a leading capital market globally, with significant IPO activity [29][30]. - The investment strategies in the Hong Kong market are expected to focus on high dividend and high growth stocks, particularly within the Hang Seng Technology Index, which represents a unique opportunity for investors [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The foundation of the Hong Kong stock market bull run remains intact, but the evolution is likely to exhibit characteristics of "oscillating upward with a gradually rising focus" rather than a rapid one-sided increase. The fundamental drivers in November are strong, emphasizing the value of high-prosperity sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in the Hang Seng Technology Index is attributed to the reversal of previous favorable factors, leading to temporary liquidity pressure in the Hong Kong stock market [1]. - The current net profit growth rate and price increase may appear divergent; however, the recent rise in the Hong Kong stock market is strongly supported by fundamentals, with new industries experiencing explosive growth while traditional sectors lag [4]. - Industries with performance support, such as new energy, AI, non-ferrous metals, steel, and semiconductors, have seen larger price increases, while sectors with declining performance growth, like real estate, infrastructure, consumption, and finance, have seen smaller price increases [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Over 70% of companies in the Hong Kong stock market are domestic enterprises, with revenue and profits derived from the Chinese economy. The operational trends of Hong Kong companies can be inferred from A-share financial reports [4]. - The overall stability and improvement in Chinese enterprises are attributed to advanced manufacturing, particularly in technology and external demand, despite ongoing pressures in traditional economic sectors [4]. Group 3: Future Triggers for Market Upturn - Potential triggers for the next phase of the Hong Kong stock market's rise include improvements in liquidity expectations, such as a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and the cessation of balance sheet reduction by the Fed [8]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 66.9%, influenced by factors like the government shutdown and the Fed's balance sheet policies, which have led to a significant widening of the interest rate spread between SOFR and IORB [8][10].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market narrative has shifted, regaining global capital attention with continuous net inflows from mainland funds and a recovery in foreign investment confidence [1][2] - The market is currently in a phase of recovery and structural optimization, supported by the accumulation of domestic funds and a renewed interest from foreign investors [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector in Hong Kong, represented by the Hang Seng Tech Index, was active in the first half of the year, while the A-share technology sector gained momentum in the second half, indicating a rotation in industry cycles rather than significant capital shifts between the two markets [2][3] - The core industries in Hong Kong are concentrated in internet and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have seen a recovery in valuations after a prolonged period of underperformance [3] AH Premium Dynamics - The AH premium, which reflects the price difference between A-shares and H-shares, has shown new characteristics, with some companies listed in Hong Kong trading at a premium compared to their A-share counterparts, a reversal of the previous norm [4] - This shift is attributed to limited supply and strong demand for certain stocks, as well as changes in market conditions and trading mechanisms [4] Growth and Valuation - The growth of certain assets in the past year, despite significant price increases, is seen as a correction from previously low valuations rather than a bubble, as many quality companies were undervalued [6] - The current market focus on emerging industries such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI indicates that these sectors are still in early growth stages, with significant potential for future expansion [6] Investment Opportunities - The innovative pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong is viewed as having long-term potential, with Chinese companies gaining global market share and moving towards self-innovation [8][9] - The new consumption sector has become a notable feature of the Hong Kong market, driven by companies seeking to capitalize on the IPO opportunities available in Hong Kong [10] Dividend Appeal - The Hong Kong dividend sector offers attractive yields, with many companies providing returns of 5% to 6%, which is higher than the 3% to 4% typically seen in A-shares [11] - The potential for policy changes regarding dividend taxation could further enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong's dividend stocks [11] Market Structure and Trends - The Hong Kong market is transitioning from a traditional value-oriented approach to a growth-oriented one, as evidenced by the rise of the Hang Seng Tech Index [12] - The market's unique position as a bridge between mainland China and international investors highlights its strategic importance in the global capital landscape [13]