Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, highlighting the mixed performance of the stock market and the impact of central bank operations on liquidity and interest rates [3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market experienced slight fluctuations with a minor increase, while the liquidity in the tax period showed a slight contraction [5]. - The central bank conducted a net injection of 309 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase operation, alongside a continuation of 700 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations [3][5]. - The overnight overseas risk assets saw an increase, and the sentiment in the bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8225% [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Transactions - The weighted average rates for various interbank funding instruments were reported, with R001 at 1.48%, R007 at 1.55%, and R014 at 1.61% [4]. - The total transaction volume in the interbank market was approximately 84,460.05 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3,315.83 billion yuan [4]. - The highest interest rate for R007 reached 1.75%, showing a decrease of 5 basis points, while R014 saw an increase of 5 basis points to 1.90% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the last few trading days of the year, it is expected that there will be limited changes in the bond market. Interest rates may continue a mostly sideways trend. Attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of medium - and long - term varieties, while being vigilant about the high volatility of ultra - long - term varieties and the disturbance of rising cross - year funding prices on 1 - 2Y term varieties. Moderately seize the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds with a term of 7Y and below, as well as the term spread between 5Y - 3Y treasury bonds [2][17]. - In the long run, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, and price signals are the key [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funding Prices: Cross - year Funding Prices Rise - From December 19th to December 25th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 6.59 billion yuan. On the 25th, 40 billion yuan of MLF was carried out, with an over - renewal of 10 billion yuan [2][8]. - During the statistical period, the 14 - day funding price rose significantly, with R014 rising by 24bp. Starting from the 25th, as 7 - day funds began to cross the year, DR007 rose 10bp on that day but remained in the range of 1.4 - 1.5%. Overnight funding prices continued to decline, with DR001 dropping to a new low of 1.26% for the year. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined slightly, with the 1Y certificate of deposit yield falling to around 1.64%, in line with the year - end seasonal characteristic of declining certificate of deposit yields [8]. 3.2 Primary Market: Issuance Nears the End - From December 19th to December 25th, only 11 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, indicating that interest - rate bond issuance is coming to an end [2][9]. 3.3 Secondary Market: The Yield Curve Continues to Steepen - From December 19th to December 25th, the yields of most treasury bonds declined, and the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds continued to weaken. In terms of term structure, the yields of medium - and short - term treasury bonds declined more. The market traded on the expectation that the central bank would increase its support for the funding market and that the bond - buying scale in December would increase. The term spread between 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds widened to 53bp, reaching a new high since January 7, 2025. Long - end interest rates are still in a state of game, with large intraday fluctuations and limited response to Beijing's real - estate relaxation policies. In addition, secondary - market trading volume also decreased seasonally at the year - end [2][10]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: Currently, it is hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Factors such as policy expectations, asset price - to - value ratios, and institutional behavior may still be dominant. However, in the longer term, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, with price signals being the key [15]. - Policy: The central bank released the communiqué of the fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting. Three adjustments in the statements are worthy of attention. First, the statement of "preventing idle funds" was deleted. Second, "promoting a decline in the overall social financing cost" was adjusted to "promoting the overall social financing cost to operate at a low level." Combining these two points, it can be understood that the current overall social financing cost is already at a low level. Further interest - rate cuts may face many constraints and may not necessarily achieve good results, but there are still various means to inject funds, and liquidity injection tools of various terms will be used flexibly. Third, "optimizing supply" was added after the statement of "expanding domestic demand." From the perspective of financial institutions, this may indicate that goals such as the total amount of credit issuance are further downplayed, and more emphasis is placed on the quality of issuance [15]. - Funding: As the year - end approaches, funding prices may rise slightly, but with the central bank's open - market operation support, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds is limited [15].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 673 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 636 billion yuan due to 1,309 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In the week of December 15-19, the central bank's net withdrawal from 7-day and 14-day reverse repos totaled 110 billion yuan, while it conducted a 6-month reverse repo operation of 6,000 billion yuan, exceeding the planned amount by 2,000 billion yuan, indicating a supportive liquidity environment [1] - The PBOC's actions on December 18-19 through 14-day reverse repos aimed to ease market concerns about year-end liquidity, contributing to expectations of continued monetary easing [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (December 22-26) will see a decrease in the 7-day reverse repo maturity scale to 4,575 billion yuan, with government bond net payments expected to rise to 3,666 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday and Thursday [2] - The liquidity in the banking system is expected to remain ample, with the potential for continued easing, particularly if the average DR001 for December can drop below 1.3%, indicating the central bank's intent for substantial easing [2] - Analysts suggest that the disturbances in the funding market are primarily due to year-end pressures and government bond payments, with expectations that the MLF's regular rollover on December 25 may alleviate some of the payment pressures [2] Group 3 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years at 3.5%, unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 to stimulate domestic financing demand [3] - The current low inflation levels provide sufficient room for monetary policy to adopt a moderately accommodative stance, including potential interest rate cuts, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent rate adjustments [3] Group 4 - The likelihood of a rate cut in December is considered low, as recent statements from the central bank have not indicated a strong signal for broad monetary easing, focusing instead on maintaining low financing costs [4] - Historically, the central bank is less likely to cut rates at year-end, with more frequent cuts occurring in the first quarter of the following year, as policymakers prefer to create a positive outlook at the start of the new year [4] - Current pressures on banks' liabilities and rising deposit rates suggest that the probability of a rate cut is low, despite indications of easing in short-term interest rates [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy stance, maintaining the view that there is still room for growth in the medium term, and advises to continue holding medium - term long positions [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1. Disk Review - On Monday, bond futures rose in the morning session and fluctuated in the afternoon, with all varieties closing higher. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% on Friday. There were 338.7 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and a 200 - billion - yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit tender, resulting in a net injection of 255.7 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Important News - Five out of the 12 Fed officials with voting rights this year have indicated a preference to keep interest rates unchanged next month [2]. - Trump advisor Hassett said that the new Fed leadership may cut interest rates and that the appointment of the Fed chair may be decided around the new year [2]. - Japan announced the deployment of missiles in a sensitive area, only 110 kilometers from Taiwan, China [2]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The A - share market rebounded on low volume today, hardly affecting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions seem to have intensified, but it is not the main influencing factor for the bond market at present. There is no obvious short - term market driver. This week, attention should be paid to whether MLF roll - overs and PMI data will provide trading impetus [3]. 3.4. Daily Treasury Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 24 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.416 | 102.448 | - 0.032 | | TF2512 | 105.885 | 105.855 | 0.03 | | T2512 | 108.47 | 108.44 | 0.03 | | TL2512 | 115.72 | 115.59 | 0.13 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0034 | - 0.0063 | 0.0097 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.02 | 0.0033 | 0.0167 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0793 | 0.0802 | - 0.0009 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1394 | 0.1601 | - 0.0207 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 71,468 | 73,816 | - 2,348 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 160,107 | 153,244 | 6,863 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 284,471 | 279,585 | 4,886 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 175,392 | 176,275 | - 883 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 35,982 | 29,272 | 6,710 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 46,495 | 64,448 | - 17,953 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 79,246 | 103,001 | - 23,755 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 64,907 | 97,822 | - 32,915 | [4]

Overview - The liquidity environment has been volatile due to tax periods, government bond payments, and new listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange, leading to a rise in funding rates at the beginning of the week [1] - The central bank's continued liquidity injections and the nearing end of tax payments have contributed to a decline in funding rates by the end of the week [1] Funding Market - From November 24-28, the funding market is expected to remain turbulent as it enters a cross-month week, with significant repayment pressures anticipated [2] - The R001 and R007 rates are projected to experience upward pressure, with potential peaks around 1.60% during the cross-month period [2] Open Market Operations - A total of 25,760 billion yuan will mature in the central bank's open market from November 24-28, with 16,760 billion yuan in reverse repos and 9,000 billion yuan in MLF [3] - The central bank plans to conduct regular MLF operations and issue treasury deposits to alleviate some of the maturing pressure [3] Bill Market - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.64%, reflecting an increase of 0.6 basis points from the previous week [4] - Major banks have shifted to net selling, with a net sell of 23.5 billion yuan during the week of November 17-20 [4] Government Bonds - The net payment for government bonds from November 24-28 is expected to be 2,337 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week's 3,629 billion yuan [5] - The increase in maturing treasury bonds has contributed to the reduction in net payment [5] Negotiable Certificates of Deposit - The issuance rate for negotiable certificates of deposit has further increased, while the maturity pressure has decreased to 7,522 billion yuan for the week of November 24-28 [6] - This is a decline from the previous week's maturity pressure of 9,209 billion yuan [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. After today's rise, the prices of long - term varieties are approaching the upper limit of the oscillation range again, and there may not be enough momentum to break through in the short term. It is recommended to take partial profits tomorrow and keep some long positions for observation [1][3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review On Monday, bond futures opened lower and rose in the morning, fluctuated in the afternoon, and closed up across the board. Spot bond yields declined across the board. Due to the end of the month, the capital market was tight, and DR001 rose to around 1.45%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 33.73 billion yuan, and MLF was renewed for 90 billion yuan, with a net injection of 34.83 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China and the US have reached preliminary consensus on properly resolving multiple important economic and trade issues and will proceed with their respective domestic approval procedures [2]. - China and the US have reached a "very substantial framework", laying the foundation for the upcoming China - US leaders' meeting [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment Optimistic news from the weekend's China - US trade negotiations led to a sharp rise in the A - share market today, with the market index approaching 4000 points. Affected by the improved risk sentiment, bond futures opened lower. However, the news of a marginal interest rate cut in the morning's MLF renewal excited bond market bulls, so the bond market was not affected by the strong stock market. Considering the previous decline in the marginal interest rate of the repurchase, the central bank currently tends to use such tools to reduce institutional financing costs, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [3]. 3.4. Bond Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 27 Price | 2025 - 10 - 24 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 27 Position | 2025 - 10 - 24 Position | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.382 | 102.334 | 0.048 | 76,175 | 76,425 | - 250 | | TF2512 | 105.735 | 105.615 | 0.12 | 156,966 | 151,744 | 5,222 | | T2512 | 108.145 | 108.015 | 0.13 | 263,730 | 261,298 | 2,432 | | TL2512 | 115.33 | 115.03 | 0.3 | 179,404 | 176,081 | 3,323 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0123 | - 0.0118 | 0.0241 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0168 | - 0.0337 | 0.0169 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0235 | 0.0436 | - 0.0201 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2081 | 0.136 | 0.0721 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 29,975 | 26,194 | 3,781 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 58,124 | 46,576 | 11,548 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 75,942 | 67,873 | 8,069 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 113,706 | 127,270 | - 13,564 | [4]

【笔记20241224— 3万亿的特别国 债 （-路透称"明年特别国债规模3万亿"-股市上涨+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 近期30Y-10Y国债利差持续走阔，可能的原因：一是随着30Y绝对水平不断降低，保险配置动力明显减弱；二是央妈反复喊话后，省联社可能加强了对农 商行投资超长债的指导；三是924之后权益类资金对冲需求大幅下降。 今日小作文乱飞，内容真正超预期的并不多，但市场反应较大，可能是在"预期你的预期"： 1、明天是MLF续作日，如果降准了，可能会有止盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ 2、下周就跨年了，基金年末冲量后年初可能有赎回，叠加年初银行可能止盈兑现浮盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ -------------------------- 央行今日公开市场开展641亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日3554亿元逆回购到期。净回笼2913亿元。 上午资金面宽松，午后略有收敛，尾盘再度转松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...