Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from investment-driven demand to a focus on housing as a necessity, leading to potential devaluation of properties in certain cities [5][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The housing market, once characterized by continuous price increases, is now facing a downturn, with investors exiting and properties returning to their primary function as residences [5][6]. - Urbanization trends show a significant migration of populations from smaller cities to larger ones, resulting in decreased housing demand and oversupply in smaller cities [7][10]. - The People's Bank of China reports a high urban household homeownership rate of 96%, with an average of 1.5 homes per household, indicating a substantial portion of properties were purchased for investment purposes [5]. Group 2: Risk Factors for Specific Cities - Cities experiencing significant population loss are at the highest risk of property devaluation, as demand diminishes and supply exceeds needs [7][10]. - Cities with previously inflated property prices, driven by speculative investments, are now seeing a retreat of investors, leading to a necessary correction in housing prices [10]. - Resource-dependent cities face economic challenges as resource depletion leads to job losses and population outflow, resulting in increased vacancy rates and declining property values [10][12]. Group 3: Recommendations - Buyers are advised to approach property purchases with caution and avoid following market trends blindly [12]. - City managers are urged to seek new economic growth opportunities to retain talent and revitalize urban areas [12].

Group 1 - The article discusses the plight of resource-depleted cities in Northern China, focusing on 21 cities in North China and Northwest China, highlighting their struggles and survival strategies [3][4] - Among these cities, 16 are coal-depleted, 3 are non-ferrous metal-depleted, and 2 are oil-depleted, with coal being the predominant resource [4][10] - The coal resources in North and Northwest China are significantly more abundant compared to Northeast China, which only accounts for less than 2% of the national coal resources [6][10] Group 2 - The article categorizes the coal-depleted cities into two coal belts, one along the Yellow River and another in the Huanghuaihai region, with varying coal quality, reserves, and extraction difficulties [11][13] - The cities of Shizuishan and Wuhai, known as the "twin coal cities," have faced severe ecological degradation due to over-extraction, with Shizuishan producing over 500 million tons of raw coal since 1956 [16][17] - Wuhai, in contrast, has a more optimistic outlook, with significant coal reserves and plans to become the global leader in BDO production, leveraging its coal resources for chemical production [21][22] Group 3 - Shanxi Province, rich in coal, faces a paradox of wealth and resource curse, with coal accounting for a significant portion of its economy, leading to a dependency that hampers diversification [24][27] - The province's GDP growth surged by 28% in 2021 due to soaring coal prices, but a subsequent decline in coal prices resulted in a negative growth of 2.14% in 2024 [28][30] - The article emphasizes the urgent need for Shanxi to transition away from coal dependency, as its coal reserves are projected to be depleted in approximately 35 years [30][32] Group 4 - The article contrasts the fortunes of coal cities with oil cities, noting that cities like Puyang have successfully adapted by processing imported oil, while others like Yumen have faced severe decline and near abandonment [46][50] - Puyang has leveraged its chemical industry to sustain its economy despite declining local oil production, while Yumen, once a thriving oil hub, has seen its population and economic activity dwindle significantly [48][56] - The stark differences in outcomes for resource-depleted cities highlight the importance of diversification and adaptation strategies in the face of resource exhaustion [61][62]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "shrinking cities" in China has gained attention as urbanization enters a new phase, characterized by population decline and economic restructuring, necessitating targeted development strategies and policy recommendations for sustainable urban development [1][48]. Group 1: Definition and Identification of Shrinking Cities - Shrinking cities are defined as urban areas experiencing sustained population loss and structural economic crises, requiring a multi-dimensional understanding [3][6]. - Identification standards for shrinking cities include a continuous decline in urban population over three years, economic growth below the national average, and mismatched urban expansion and population growth [7][10]. Group 2: Characteristics and Distribution of Shrinking Cities - There are 139 identified shrinking cities in China, with significant concentrations in the Northeast, particularly in Heilongjiang, where 12 out of 13 cities are classified as shrinking [10][11]. - Shrinking cities exhibit a paradox of spatial expansion despite population decline, with 93.03% of these cities still expanding their built-up areas [35][36]. Group 3: Causes of Shrinking Cities - Macro factors contributing to shrinking cities include population aging, low birth rates, and regional development imbalances, leading to resource and talent concentration in coastal areas [17][19]. - Micro factors include population outflow, a decline in job opportunities, and a stagnant real estate market, exacerbating the shrinking phenomenon [27][29]. Group 4: Transformation Paths for Shrinking Cities - Strategies for transformation include "smart shrinkage," focusing on quality and efficiency rather than mere expansion, optimizing urban space, and developing new industries [38][39]. - Specific development paths for resource-dependent cities involve leveraging local resources for new industries, while cultural tourism and ecological cities are emerging as viable options for others [40][41]. Group 5: Policy Responses - National policies emphasize the need for "smart shrinkage" strategies, optimizing administrative divisions, and avoiding blind expansion to enhance urban quality and competitiveness [43][44]. - Future policy recommendations include establishing monitoring mechanisms for shrinking cities, implementing differentiated support policies, and promoting regional collaboration for resource sharing [46][47].