本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者 董红艳 北京报道 对于钨的后市表现，施佳向记者分析指出，钨价受供应波动影响，市场库存有限，价格上行较快，短期 内成交不足，上升趋势受到抑制；长期在资源紧张与需求扩张背景下，仍将高位运行。 对于钨价上涨对相关企业的影响，施佳向记者分析表示，上游矿山企业受政策、环保、成本等因素影 响，供应量有限但利润将得到保障；中游冶炼企业成本传导承压，经营风险上升，将在钨冶炼技术及废 钨回收领域加大投入；下游加工企业短期难以找到替代性产品，或将进一步提高长协比例，优化库存管 理降低经营风险。 近日，钨市场再度迎来行情，主要钨制品价格涨幅明显。而相比年初，钨价已接近翻倍。业内分析人士 向《华夏时报》记者表示，在资源紧张与需求扩张背景下，钨价仍将高位运行。 钨价强势之下，钨金属板块迎来爆发。其中，从10月27日起，中钨高新的股价便出现了明显的涨幅。10 月29日，中钨高新以涨停价24.76元报收，涨幅10.00%，总市值攀升至564.18亿元。10月30日，中钨高 新股价继续保持上扬。 在本次股市行情之前，中钨高新披露了一则关联收购公告。10月26日晚间，中钨高新公告称，拟以现金 支 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the market perceives Tongling Nonferrous Metals as a strong beta stock closely tied to copper price fluctuations, the company has significant growth potential due to its resource side and production capabilities [1] - The company is expected to enhance its copper resource self-sufficiency with the commissioning of the second phase of the Mirador project [1] - On the processing side, the company has established five major copper processing bases, enabling it to produce a variety of copper products and target high-end markets, thus moving towards a high-end product structure [1] Group 2 - The company is given a target price of 6.14 yuan per share based on a 15 times PE ratio for the year 2026 [1] - The initial coverage of the company includes a "buy" rating, indicating positive expectations for its future performance [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. with a target price of 6.14 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2026 [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its resource self-sufficiency rate due to the production ramp-up of the Mirador Phase II project, enhancing profitability [2][14]. - The processing segment is targeting high-end markets, with a product structure moving towards high-end development, supported by five major copper processing bases [2][67]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 137.45 billion CNY in 2023 to 182.07 billion CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 18.7% from 2024 to 2025 [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 26.99 billion CNY in 2023 to 57.32 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant growth rate of 54.1% in 2026 [3][13]. Resource Segment - The self-sufficiency rate is expected to rise to 10.3% in 2025, 12.0% in 2026, and 15.4% in 2027, driven by the Mirador Phase II project [10]. - The company produced 176.80 thousand tons of cathode copper in 2024, with a self-sufficiency rate of 8.8%, a notable increase from 2022 [2][49]. Processing Segment - The company has established a comprehensive processing capability for copper materials, including rods, wires, cables, sheets, and foils, with a focus on high-end markets [2][67]. - The production capacity for electronic copper foil is projected to reach 80 thousand tons per year by the end of 2024, with specific capacities for PCB and lithium battery copper foils [2][67]. Valuation and Target Price - The report compares Tongling Nonferrous with peers like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, concluding a target price of 6.14 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2026 [17].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Cautious Accumulate" from "Accumulate" [1][11] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is under pressure due to declining lithium prices and significant impairment provisions, leading to a projected revenue of 45.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.4% [2][11] - The company is expected to recover as projects like the Muliang Lithium Mine progress, which will enhance resource self-sufficiency and alleviate margin pressure from narrowing smelting price differentials [2][11] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 7,951 million yuan, projected to drop to 4,581 million yuan in 2024, with a subsequent increase to 4,867 million yuan in 2025 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to shift from a profit of 702 million yuan in 2023 to a loss of 622 million yuan in 2024, with a recovery to 174 million yuan in 2025 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.68 yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.19 yuan in 2025 and 0.54 yuan in 2026 [4] Market Data - The current stock price is 13.23 yuan, with a target price maintained at 13.94 yuan [1][5] - The stock has a market capitalization of 12,109 million yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.24 based on the current price [5][4] Project Progress - The company has successfully ramped up production at its Yilonggou lithium concentrate project, achieving a production capacity of 75,000 tons per year, and the Zimbabwe project is also operational [11] - The construction of the Sichuan Muliang Lithium Mine is progressing well, with expectations for production to commence by the end of 2027, potentially reaching an annual capacity of 570,000 tons [11]