Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue growth but a sharp decline in net profit, primarily due to falling lithium prices and increased costs in the lithium segment [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 89 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was only 8 million yuan, a decrease of 98% [1]. - For Q2 2025, operating revenue was 1.73 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%, but the net profit was a loss of 46 million yuan, worsening from a loss of 181 million yuan in the previous quarter [1]. Lithium Segment Analysis - The lithium segment saw a revenue decline of 18% in H1 2025, totaling 1.307 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10.89%, down 25 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Lithium salt sales reached 17,869 tons, an increase of 6.37% year-on-year, while the average selling price of lithium carbonate dropped significantly, averaging 70,000 yuan per ton, with Q2 prices around 64,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The company incurred a loss of 40 million yuan in the lithium segment in Q2, compounded by a 40 million yuan inventory write-down due to falling prices [2]. Rare Metals Business Growth - The rare metals segment reported a revenue of 708 million yuan in H1 2025, a 50% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 511 million yuan, also up 50% [3]. - The cesium and rubidium salt fine chemical business generated 407 million yuan in revenue, a growth of 24.93%, while the formic acid cesium rental business surged by 107.63% to 301 million yuan [3]. Copper Mining Development - The Kitumba copper mine project is progressing, with initial design completed and construction of mining and processing facilities underway, aiming for operational start in July 2026 [3]. - The company has also acquired a 98% stake in the Tsumeb project in Namibia, initiating a 200,000 tons/year multi-metal recycling project [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 639 million, 1.321 billion, and 2.279 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates due to lower lithium price assumptions [4]. - Despite the adjustments, the company maintains a "buy" rating, citing significant cost optimization and steady growth in copper and rare metals businesses [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in lithium carbonate prices, which have dropped approximately 70% over the past year, leading to a supply surplus in the market [1] - SQM's second-quarter revenue was reported at $1.04 billion, falling short of the expected $1.07 billion [1] - The net profit for SQM in the same period was $88.4 million, also below the anticipated $144 million [1] Group 2 - The low lithium prices have had a notable impact on SQM's performance, with an adjusted EBITDA of $308 million in the second quarter, which is lower than the expected $334 million [1] - SQM has indicated that the weak lithium prices have decreased the economic viability of some lithium projects [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious view on lithium in the near term due to the ongoing downtrend in lithium prices and inventory buildup [1]. Core Insights - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide average selling prices (ASP) decreased by 4% and 2% week-over-week (WoW) respectively as of May 8, 2025 [2]. - Lithium production in China is projected to increase by 2% month-over-month (MoM) and 21% year-over-year (YoY) to approximately 75,500 tons in May 2025, which is lower than the growth rates of downstream cathode and battery production [1][2]. - The total inventory of lithium carbonate is around 130,000 tons, contributing to downward pressure on ASP due to increased imports from low-cost brine regions [1]. Summary by Sections Lithium Prices - As of May 8, 2025, the ASP for lithium carbonate is quoted at Rmb62,300 per ton and for lithium hydroxide at Rmb66,500 per ton, down from Rmb68,000 and Rmb67,600 respectively on April 30, 2025 [2]. Production Data - China's lithium carbonate production increased by 27% WoW to 18,349 tons last week, with significant contributions from brine, lepidolite, spodumene, and recycling processes [2]. - The production output variations are attributed to the differing day counts during the Labor Holiday, affecting the weekly production figures [2]. Inventory Levels - The total inventory of lithium carbonate stands at 131,569 tons, with downstream players' inventory decreasing by 7%, while smelters' inventory increased by 7% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures have dropped below 70,000 yuan/ton due to new regulations in the new energy sector and cost-price inversion, leading to continuous pressure on lithium prices [2][4][6]. Price Trends - On April 25, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures (LC2507) closed at 68,180 yuan/ton, having fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton on April 21, and has not recovered this level for four consecutive trading days, marking a year-to-date decline of over 12% [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased from a high of 78,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to below 70,000 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices have only slightly decreased from 845 USD/ton to 807 USD/ton, indicating a divergence in price trends [6][9]. Regulatory Impact - New regulations regarding electric vehicle batteries, which prohibit them from catching fire, have led to a cautious outlook on lithium demand, potentially reducing the amount of lithium used by automakers [4][9]. - The introduction of these regulations has already had a significant impact on futures prices, with only one day of positive closing in the 14 trading days from April 8 to April 25 [4]. Cost and Supply Dynamics - The cost-price inversion is a major factor in the decline of lithium prices, with the estimated production cost of lithium carbonate ranging from 70,000 to 71,000 yuan/ton, while the market price is only 69,600 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory levels in the lithium carbonate industry have increased from 108,000 tons to 132,000 tons between March and April, indicating a supply surplus [6][9]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is shifting from midstream to upstream, with the supply pressure at the mining level beginning to show as lithium mine prices have started to decline more rapidly [9]. - Despite some improvement in the financial performance of companies like Tianqi Lithium, which expects a profit of 82 million to 123 million yuan, the overall outlook remains challenging due to reduced demand growth and regulatory pressures [9].

任何企业也难以抵御周期的力量。 有中国 "锂矿双雄" 之称的天齐锂业 (002466.SZ) 与赣锋锂业 (002460.SZ) ，一个掌控锂矿资源 储量世界第一，一个则拥有着世界上最大与品质最好的锂矿资源，在 "周期熊" 强烈冲击下也深 陷 "降速巨亏" 泥潭。 据24潮产业研究院 (TTIR) 统计，天齐锂业营业收入已经连续6个季度下降，近五个季度营收降幅 均超50%，其24年更是创纪录的巨亏 （归母净利润，下同） 79.05亿元 （同比下降了208.32%） ，从季度趋势变化看，其已经连续5个季度亏损；赣锋锂业形势也不容乐观，其营业收入已经连 续7个季度下降，24年亏损20.74亿元 （同比下降141.93%） ，这是有记录以来 （2007年以来） 首次出现亏损。 为了方便读者朋友能更为客观、全面的了解锂矿双雄的真正竞争力与潜在风险，24潮团队还统计 对比了天齐锂业与赣锋锂业2024年投资布局与收益、造血力与资本实力、国际化与市值变化等多 个核心指标，供读者朋友参考。 如表所示，24年锂矿双雄国际化方面也遭遇了较大冲击。2024年天齐锂业与赣锋锂业海外业务收 入分别同比下降了81.13%和63.68%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Cautious Accumulate" from "Accumulate" [1][11] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is under pressure due to declining lithium prices and significant impairment provisions, leading to a projected revenue of 45.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.4% [2][11] - The company is expected to recover as projects like the Muliang Lithium Mine progress, which will enhance resource self-sufficiency and alleviate margin pressure from narrowing smelting price differentials [2][11] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 7,951 million yuan, projected to drop to 4,581 million yuan in 2024, with a subsequent increase to 4,867 million yuan in 2025 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to shift from a profit of 702 million yuan in 2023 to a loss of 622 million yuan in 2024, with a recovery to 174 million yuan in 2025 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.68 yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.19 yuan in 2025 and 0.54 yuan in 2026 [4] Market Data - The current stock price is 13.23 yuan, with a target price maintained at 13.94 yuan [1][5] - The stock has a market capitalization of 12,109 million yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.24 based on the current price [5][4] Project Progress - The company has successfully ramped up production at its Yilonggou lithium concentrate project, achieving a production capacity of 75,000 tons per year, and the Zimbabwe project is also operational [11] - The construction of the Sichuan Muliang Lithium Mine is progressing well, with expectations for production to commence by the end of 2027, potentially reaching an annual capacity of 570,000 tons [11]